Golden State's View to the Future

Ever since Monday night, when Baron Davis suddenly upped and walked away from the $17.8 million remaining on his contract to reportedly "go home" to his beloved Los Angeles, every single Warrior fan has been frantically asking, "What do we do now?" Now, I've discussed this with several of my good NBA-loving friends, and I'd like to share some ideas, spread the wealth. I would say something about Seattle settling today to keep the name Supersonics in Seattle while letting Clay Bennet whisk Sam Presti, PJ Carlesimo, Kevin Durant, and the rest of the organization away to Oklahoma City, but there's not much for me to say there beyond, it makes me sad. I could talk about how stacked the Clippers are supposed to look, but they'd only be adding an 11th team to a race for 8 playoff spots. So let's stick with the Warriors' options.

Granted Baron walking away from $17.8 million was shock to everybody, the Warriors really didn't have any long-term plans for him. The future of the franchise belongs to Monta Ellis, and they're just going to have to start a year early. So what do the Warriors have to deal with now? Well firstly, they have their inherent problem of lacking size. They need a big that can play alongside Andris Biedrins, but also run Don Nelson's small ball with the rest of the team. While Al Harrington can do the latter, he's more of an oversized 3 than an undersized 4. He comes in and shoots treys all day and gets pounded day after day by the big interior players. Of course, the Warriors can hedge their bets and hope that Brandon Wright and/or Anthony Randolph develop into the kind of player that they need, but defensive tenacity isn't exactly something learned in the Nellie small-ball system, so it's probably easier to just bring it in. The second issue is that now the Warriors have no real point guard, they have a potentially point-forwardesque Stephen Jackson, Monta Ellis, whom anaylsts have promptly labelled a "combo guard" which to me says, he doens't have the handles to play point and is either undersized (which he is) or isn't enough of a shooter to be a 2, theoretically you can thrive like Allen Iverson, but it's not ideal, and finally they also have reserve guard CJ Watson. All in all, it's not looking very pretty for the Warriors. One report I've read, says that the team as is, would have a starting 5 of something like; Monta Ellis, Kelena Azubuike, Stephen Jackson, Al Harrington, and Andris Biedrins, with Brandon Wright, Anthony Randolph, and Marco Bellinelli coming off the bench. If this were the case, the Clippers would simply replace them on the list of 10 Western Conference playoff contenders instead of adding to the list, in short, it's not particularly awe-inspiring.

Baron's going to the Clippers for a 6 year $65 million contract does guarantee one thing, the Warriors are now legitimate bidders on the free agent market. Regardless of if Bellinelli, Azubuike, and Wright are ready and able to step it up (I still think Nellie will bench Randolph for the entirety of the regular season, watch for all his minutes in the pre-season), the Warriors can afford to bring in solid players. If there are no major bidders, Warriors can also pick up some of its free agents like Matt Barnes and Mickael Pietrus for a quick sign-and-trade. The only splash I've heard the Warriors making thusfar are throwing a 5 year $95 million offer at Gilbert Arenas (which the Wizards matched, and while rumored at allowing a 6 year $125 million contract, the Wizards are rumored to be offering Arenas something that figures between $125 million and $127 million), and another max contract of $90 million for 5 years at the Clippers' Elton Brand. Of course, it looks a lot like Brand opted out so Davis could go to LA, but no one knows for sure, however, many Warriors fans I'm sure would view it as poetic justice if Brand decided to move north. However, I don't really anticipate these offers to pan out, so let's look at some other options both through free-agency and through trade.

Free Agents:

Josh Smith (PF, Atlanta) - So as I've read, Josh Smith is the only player in the NBA to net 225 blocks and 25 threes in one season. As far as style of play, he's definitely someone who will fit into a fast paced small-ball system well. He may disappear on defense sometimes, but he gets his boards (and his blocks), which is enough for a coach whose system has basically no defense. A lot of people are leery of his attitude, but hey, the kid's 22, he'll grow, and besides, didn't New Orleans get rid of Baron beacuse of attitude problems anyway? Reports that Ed Stefanski loves the kid and is willing to offer a 5 year $55 million contract for him, which of course Atlanta could match, Warriors can throw a considerably larger amount, and hope that the Hawks can't keep up, but who knows? I say, take the $90 million they were going to give Brand and give $60 or so to Smith, then use the other $30 million to fill other needs, like a point guard.

Emeka Okafor (PF, Charlotte) - I'm actually kind of surprised that no one has really talked about him, but of course, I didn't really think of him myself at first. There's no saying how well he'll fit into a small ball system, but I think there's defenitely potential there. He's solid defensively and pounds the boards, more than making up for the weaknesses of Biedrins in the low post. As a restricted-free, Charlotte can always match, but I think he's worth taking a look at. Charlotte really hasn't found a comfortable fit for him yet, so it's a maybe.

Elton Brand (PF, LA Clippers) - Of course Brand is second guessing his tenure with LA, I would too if someone just offered me $90 million for th next 5 years. However, I don't really see him leaving to go to Oakland, honestly I don't think the Warriors have the pieces of a system that would really attract him. Needless to say, he'd be a tremendous fit though, great for the Warriors, poetic justice for the fans.

Roger Mason (PG, Washington) - Mason showed spurts of excellence when both Gilbert Arenas and Antonio Daniels were out with injuries. Now being a free agent, if he were to return to the Wizards he'd continue to play behind those two, he's not a big name, but for cheap, he'll do well under Nellie, and he'll fill the PG void nicely.

Jannero Pargo (PG, New Orleans) - Pargo really stepped it up as the back up to Chris Paul, showing that the Hornets didn't really need Bobby Jackson, which prompted the trade for Mike James and Bonzi Wells. Again, the rationale is similar to that of Roger Mason above. Maybe Carlos Arroyo is another option.

Sebastian Telfair (PG, Minnesota) - He fell out of favor with a tanking Boston, he fell out of favor at Minnesota to Marko Jaric, and now with Randy Foye back, he's a backup at best. Of course, if Gerald Green gets another chance, why not Telfair?

Josh Childress (SG/SF, Atlanta) - This doesn't really answer the question of a legit 4, but they can spend less money and move Monta to the point with Stephen Jackson and Josh Childress at the 2 and 3 slots. This would mean though, they're banking on Brandon Wright really stepping it up, ultimately, it's not a huge improvement, just sort of a replacement for potentially Barnes and Pietrus. He'll definitely be easier to get since Altanta will likely be spending a lot of money on Josh Smith, unless of course, someone makes an offer for Smith that Atlanta can't match.

Corey Maggette (SG/SF, LA Clippers) - With Maggette you run about a full mid-level exception ($5.5 million per year) but you run the same sort of problem that you do with Josh Childress, it doesn't make them significantly better and fill a need that they really need. If they want to tank the season, why add extra salaries? Bring in youth, someone more serviceable.

Andre Igoudala (SG/SF, Philadelphia) - There have been reports of interest, but Iggy is really the face of a franchise, I don't think he'll fit in well in Golden State at all. Other big name free agents like Luol Deng and Ben Gordon add the same kind of problem, again remember, the Warriors need primarily point guards or power forwards.

Chris Duhon (PG, Chicago) - Given the amount that the Knicks are willing to throw at him, I frankly don't think he's worth the bidding war.

Trades:

Kirk Hinrich (PG, Chicago) - This will likely cost them something like Al Harrington, of course, why the Bulls would want Al Harrington what with Luol Deng, Tyrus Thomas, Drew Gooden, and Andres Nocioni already is beyond me. However, Hinrich is moveable, especially with the drafting of Derrick Rose. Not a bad choice if you ask me.

Mo Williams (PG, Miluakee) - There have been murmurings that Williams isn't really necessary anymore now that the Bucks traded for Richard Jefferson. If he's going out the door, then I think a lot of teams who want a dynamic point will be interested. Warriors could stand to take a good hard look.

Chris Wilcox (PF, Oklahoma City) - It really hurts me to not be writing Seattle there, but that's how it is. Chris Wilcox is kind of the hard working guy that the Warriors could really use, he's not your perennial 20-10 Carlos Boozer kind of guy, but he does the job well enough. High energy and efficient. With the Sonics looking to get younger, I don't see this necessarily as impossible. Of course, on the other hand Nick Collison could very well come out the door as well, especially with the development of Jeff Green, and I'm going to guess they'll move Kevin Durant out of the SG slot at some point in time.

Rasheed Wallace (PF, Detroit) - Honestly, the Warriors don't really have anyone to offer anymore, but it can't hurt to try. Wallace basically does the things that the Warriors need and like; he grabs boards and shots the three.

Needless to say, I don't see Ron Artest being traded to anyone in the Western Conference let alone another team in California, so, no go there.

The Hour Draws Nigh

So the draft is today, at 7pm ET, meaning 4pm here in California where I am. There's a lot of speculation and anticipation regarding what's going on, who'll go where, what draft day trades will be had, so on and so forth. I'm not extraordinarily interested in the draft class of 2008-2009, honestly, outside of Rose and Beasley, I don't know that it looks all that promising. Several players I feel are overrated, and honestly, if it weren't so guard heavy, Brook Lopez would not be in the top 5. Regardless though, I want to take a look at the teams that can potentially improve, that are only a couple of pieces away from serious contention.

Portland Trailblazers:
All they need really, is a little veterancy and some experience in the playoffs. Granted, that sort of puts them out of contention next year, but for the next few they should be good. As good as Steve Blake and Jarret Jack do, I still think that they have a need for some sort of improvement on the PG position. There have been rumors of trading up in the draft slot for a shot at someone like DJ Augustine, but I really don't know that another young player is something that the Blazers need right now. Given their current roster, I think that packaging their 13th pick might not be a bad idea if they can land a good PG. Ideally, I'd say you want someone like Mo Williams with the serviceable Steve Blake backing him up, but I don't know that you'd be able to pry Williams from Miluakee right now (despite there being some trade rumors of Redd to Cleveland). However, given the strong impression of a potential TJ Ford for Jermaine O'Neal trade, it seems that the Pacers want to reshape their look around Michael Dunleavy Jr and Danny Granger. Of course, this means that veteran PG Jamaal Tinsley is out of a job, I think he'd fit quite nicely in Portland. Of course, injury is always a question, but I think he's able to add the veteran presence as well as the skills to run the offense around such a young squad. With Oden officially starting his NBA career next season, they'll be a monster team inside with Oden and Aldridge on their frontcourt, and Roy has developed into an All-Star caliber player. Additionally, throw in the slew of athletic forwards in James Jones, Travis Outlaw, and Martell Webster, you've got one heck of a solid team.

Orlando Magic:
I know Magic already threw a ton of money at Rashard Lewis last season, but I think there's still room to improve. Noteably, their guards. Arguably, they could go bigger, finding a legitimate PF and move Turkoglu to the SG position and play Rashard Lewis at his original SF position. I think this would be the ideal way to go, since having a weak side mid-post presence, someone who can hit those 10-15 foot jumpers would really add a lot to their offense as well as giving Dwight Howard even more looks and opportunities to isolate. Jameer Nelson may be improving but behind him I don't know that Carlos Arroyo is the guy you want, you need someone a little better, or an improvement over Nelson so that he can start. They could always try trading younger, but that's never a guarantee. Memphis of course has a major platoon of guards in Javaris Crittenton, Kyle Lowry, and Mike Conley Jr, which means that one of them is likely to go. It could be a good opportunity for Orlando to trade off some of its excess flak like it's 2 guard platoon of Marcus Banks, Keith Bogans, and JJ Reddick. However, they're almost there, they're improving as a team, and I can only see them getting better, despite similarity in their games, Turkoglu and Lewis will always provide some sort of matchup problem no matter what position they play.

LA Lakers:
Of course some of you might ask me, how can you make this team better? Well, the fact is that with Bynum coming back into the lineup, the whole roster gets shaken up a little. I personally think that Odom is something of what I call a 3.5 forward, he rebounds better than a normal 3 but doesn't shoot as well, but he also doesn't have a low post presence like a normal 4 forward would. Naturally, with Bynum inserted into the triangle Odom's role will be reduced further, requiring him to do more of what he does worst, take jump shots. Of course, one potential prospect I heard that would be beneficial for both teams would be to trade him off for New Jersey Nets' Richard Jefferson. This works out for the Lakers because Jefferson is a dynamic player that can finish and shoot, in addition, having played behind Kidd and Carter, he can make the most of the few shots he does get. Odom gives the Nets a solid finisher at the rim, and solves the problem of redundancy between Richard Jefferson's game with Vince Carter's.

Golden State Warriors:
With only 6 of the players on the roster as non-free agents, aside from keeping Biedrins and Ellis, it's likely that Warriors are going to let everyone else go, or pull some sort of sign and trade. Most noteably on the list are forwards Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes. Of course, the growing disconentment of Al Harrington may opt him for a trade as well. The question is what they need. Of course, there is the trade speculation of Detroit sending over Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace for some kind of package including Baron Davis. Personally, I think that's a major mistake, Baron is the face of the franchise for now, and honestly, I don't think Chauncey Billups can run the offense effectively. While Billups has a better shot to Davis's volume shooting, he thrives in a half-court set, a game in which, I don't believe Monta Ellis plays well in. If you were to take out Billups and Davis and just do the rest of the package and Rasheed, I'd think it'd work out for the Warriors. Basically what the Warriors need is one of two things, either some grit down low that can run with the offense or someone more serviceable than CJ Watson to relieve Baron of playing 40+ minutes a game for the whole season. Many Warrior fans have opted for Ron Artest while I've also heard shots for Elton Brand, Drew Gooden, or Chris Wilcox. Either way, I don't expect the 14th pick that the Warriors have to amount to much. However, as is true for many Warriors, maybe this second year for Brandon Wright and Marco Bellinelli will be breakout years.

What the Warriors Could've Had

I was talking to a co-worker and he mentioned how the Warriors really don't know what to do with their first round picks and have had a history of making major draft busts. I decided to look it up, and indeed it seems to be true. If we assume that in retrospect Warriors retain all of their draft picks up to the present despite picking the right person we see a glaring disparity.

Here is a list of all the warriors that were drafted since 1995:
Joe Smith (1st pick 1995)
Todd Fuller (11th pick 1996)
Adonal Folye (8th pick 1997)
Vince Carter (5th pick 1998, traded to Toronto for 4th pick Antawn Jamison)
Jason Terry (10th pick 1999, traded to Atlanta, received 21st pick Jeff Foster, later traded for Vonteego Cummings, the 26th pick and a future pick)
Troy Murphy (14th pick 2001)
Gilbert Arenas (31st pick 2001)
Mike Dunleavy Jr (3rd pick 2002)
Steve Logan (29th pick 2002)
Mickael Pietrus (11th pick 2003)
Derrick Zimmerman (40th pick 2003)
Andris Biedrins (11th pick 2004)
Ike Diogu (9th pick 2005)
Monta Ellis (40th pick 2005)
Chris Taft (42nd pick 2005)
Patrick O'Bryant (9th pick 2006)
Kosta Perovic (38th pick 2006)

Now a list of who they could have drafted since 1995:
Antonio McDyess (2nd pick 1995)
Jerry Stackhouse (3rd pick 1995)
Rasheed Wallace (4th pick 1995)
Kevin Garnett (5th pick 1995)
Kobe Bryant (13th pick 1996)
Peja Stojakovic (14th pick 1996)
Steve Nash (15th pick 1996)
Jermaine O'Neal (17th pick 1996)
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (20th pick 1996)
Tracy McGrady (9th pick 1997)
Corey Maggette (13th pick 1999)
Ron Artest (16th pick 1999)
Andrei Kirilenko (24th pick 1999)
Manu Ginobili (57th pick 1999)
Zach Randolph (19th pick 2001)
Gerald Wallace (25th pick 2001)
Tony Parker (27th pick 2001)
Amare Stoudamire (9th pick 2002)
Caron Butler (10th pick 2002)
Tayshaun Prince (23rd pick 2002)
Carlos Boozer (34th pick 2002)
David West (18th pick 2003)
Leandro Barbosa (28th pick 2003)
Josh Howard (29th pick 2003)
Maurice Williams (47th pick 2003)
Al Jefferson (15th pick 2004)
Josh Smith (17th pick 2004)
Kevin Martin (26th pick 2004)
Andrew Bynum (10th pick 2005)
Danny Granger (17th pick 2005)
Ronnie Brewer (14th pick 2006)
Rajon Rondo (21st pick 2006)

Well we'll see if it gets better from here on. Brandan Wright and Marco Bellinelli seem like steps in the right direction, let's see what Warriors do with pick number 14 this year.

Game 3: Did the Lakers dodge a bullet? or did the Celtics simply miss?

I didn't get to see the game from tip off to the closing buzzer, but I saw enough of it to know that this was an ugly game. Shots just weren't fall, players were making bad decisions, forcing up bad shots because they couldn't run their sets before the shot clock ran out, etc... I can't honestly say that the Lakers deserved the win. Sure Kobe Bryant went crazy, getting his 36 points on 12-20 shooting, but seriously, what the heck happened here? Everyone's already telling me how different it's supposed to be next year with Bynum back, and of course Michelle Tafoya seemed to insult Phil Jackson during an interview after the 3rd quarter saying, "It looks like it's 12 minutes away from Boston taking a 3-0 lead in the series..." everything is pointing at Boston winning the series (I'm gonna say it just because, "I told you so"). Tonight in Game 3, the Lakers were saved by 3 players, 2 of them wearing Celtics green.

Games 1 and 2 definitely shook up the young Lakers, they're not used to the competitiveness and raw energy that is Boston, thus Kobe Bryant was forced to drag the entire team through the trenches just to pull off this ugly 87-81 win, only 4 players scored double digits in the entire game, total (Ray Allen, Kobe Bryant, Sasha Vujacic, and Kevin Garnett). Thankfully for the Lakers Vujacic was actually hitting the random slew of shots he normally takes, thus tallying up 20 for the night. Even more luckily for them, Garnett's 13 came off of 6-21 shooting, and Paul Pierce had a bad night with 2-14 shooting, scoring only 6 points and tallying 5 fouls in the process. Lakers were outrebounded on the offensive glass 14-9, making it up on the defensive end simply because the Celtics weren't hitting their shots.

End of the line is that the Lakers not wearing a number 24 jersey just don't seem to have the toughness to keep up with this older, scrappy Boston team. Gasol and Odom, the two purportedly big scorers in the Lakers' frontcourt were completely lost throughout the game, shooting a combined 5-18. Gasol finished 3-9 with 9 points, 5 of those coming off of put backs and a free throw in the 4th quarter. Gasol just looked frightened to be on the floor, he wasn't going for rebounds, he was tenative on defense, he didn't box out, half the rebounds I saw him get were ones that landed in his lap, and the only rebound I saw him fight for was the one he ripped out of the hands of Kobe.

Despite pulling themselves back into the series, these young Lakers that everyone had going all the way, these young Lakers that everyone thought was the best team in the league, really haven't shown much fight in them throughout this finals series. The fans are already talking about next year, while analysts continue to rant on how the Lakers' interior defense is too soft, and how Kevin Garnett needs to just be more aggressive inside. I'll stick with Celtics in 7, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if they take it in 5 or 6. The Lakers that played in Game 3 looked like the Lakers of old, nothing but Kobe pulling them through, and there's a reason why the Lakers of old never made it out of the first round.

L.A. Lakers: Greatest Strength, Biggest Weakness

No one ever doubted (and I would guess still doubts) that LA is very much Kobe Bryant's team. There's nothing really to it, when the show gets on the road, it's Kobe's show to run, everyone else is just along for the ride. So if you tell me that the team is still dependent on Kobe Bryant, I'd believe it. Sure you wouldn't necessarily be gutting the Lakers as badly if you removed Kobe as you would the Cavs if you removed LeBron, but you'd be coming pretty close. Despite the anchor that is Pau Gasol, I think that the Lakers are still too Kobe reliant. Sure, they don't need him to score his 40 points a game as much anymore, he can confidently distribute the ball, certain that Odom, Vujacic, Radmonovic, Fisher, etc... can put in the open look.

So what am I saying when I say that the Lakers are still too Kobe reliant? They don't need him to carry the team scoring wise as I mentioned, right? They got rid of Kwame Brown and Smush Parker, brought back good friend and vet Derek Fisher, and stole Pau Gasol (only the best Spanish player on the planet). However, Pau Gasol has shown that he's not a team leader, he's better suited in a backup role, a second scoring option, likewise Lamar Odom has shown that he's camera shy, he doesn't like the spotlight, taking over games is not something he can do. He's a role player, a very good one, but a role player nontheless.

This epiphany sort of came to me watching a rather embarassing performance by the Lakers (or I should say an impressive defensive showing by the Celtics) in Game 1. The Celtics defense has been constantly frustrating the Lakers, especially Kobe, and the rest of the Lakers (except maybe Fisher) look to him for their own confidence. Under pressure, they crack. They make bad decisions, sloppy plays, force shots, it happens when their offense doesn't flow according to plan, and then, they look to Kobe to take over games. Maybe it's just youth, hopefully they get over it as they progress. We'll see.

NBA Finals 2008: The Return of Showtime

Everyone keeps saying, it's Showtime again, Boston vs LA, the return of classical basketball. Unfortunately, I don't think I was old enough to grasp the concept of basketball during the Showtime era, so all Showtime means to me is the ridiculous Midway NBA game released in 1999 in the arcades and on Playstation based on the mold of NBA Jam and NBA Hangtime for the Super NES. It simply meant big heads, crazy dunks, 95% hot spot 3 pt shooting, and Patrick Ewing getting his jump shot stuffed by Mugsy Bogues. Now, if that actually happened, it'd be pretty cool, but, I don't think we'll be seeing Sam Cassell flying out of the weak side to reject Pau Gasol on a put back shot.

As much history as these two teams have, and as much as David Stern roots for it, and as much as the gold vs green jerseys bring back waves of nostalgia (for everyone except me as I started watching basketball when Phil Jackson was winning all his rings), this series is no different than the others before it. To be brutally honest, if it weren't for the hype surrounding these teams and the nostalgia of Showtime, you could say that this series has been remarkably boring, there were no major upsets, all the wins have gone to the higher seeded (and arguably better) teams, and now we have the no. 1 Western Conference LA Lakers facing off against the no. 1 Eastern Conference (and league-wide) Boston Celtics. Most of it was hype, and a lot of that hype/tension was released last week when the Lakers dethroned the returning champs in the Spurs and the 2nd best team in the league (Detroit Pistons) was ousted out of the Conference Finals for the 3rd time since their 2004 championship (sorry Flip Saunders).

But we're here to talk about basketball, not rant and rave about media hype, so let's get to the basketball. Firstly, I think Peter May's column in Yahoo! Sports is 100% accurate. There really isn't that strong of a case to call Boston the underdogs beyond their inconsistent playoff play. Granted, that's a big knock against the Celtics, but hey, you have to say that they're all kind of new to it. I mean, it's a pretty quick turnaround turning from a draft lottery team to the Eastern Conference champions (granted it's the Eastern Conference). Still, we're looking at three All-Star/potential hall of famers, and a slew of not so shabby looking backup cast. The Lakers, seem to have won a substantial amount of support and confidence because of the strong play from its role players and the MVP performance of Kobe Bryant.

Let's look at the matchups, and see what happens.

PG - Boston: Rajon Rondo; LA: Derek Fisher
I'm honestly going to have to go with Rondo on this one. I will give that Fisher is a catch and shoot kind of guy, so he doesn't have to make the plays that Mike Bibby and Chauncey Billups did, but Rondo did amazing against those two so defensively, I don't think he's going to have much trouble dealing with Fisher, that kid is long. On the flip side, while Rondo doesn't have a jump shot, he is fast, he has kind of the lookings to be like a lanky Tony Parker. I honestly don't think Fisher can keep in front of him.

SG - Boston: Ray Allen; LA: Kobe Bryant
Ray Allen has received a lot of criticism for not being able to find his shot and fading during this playoff series. Honestly, as I've said I think on a Yahoo! board, I don't think people are looking at Allen very fair. He moved from being the Sonics' no. 1 All-Star scoring option in front of Rashard Lewis and Chris Wilcox to becoming the no. 3 scoring option behind Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Yes, Allen is older, but he's not a pure shooter, never was, never will be. I'm not saying Allen can't shoot, but they Celtics optimally would work even better with a Reggie Miller type player, the ultimate catch and shoot, and that is a player that Ray Allen is not. However, I think he's going to find ways to score nonetheless, being finding his shot off the double-screen, or just putting the ball on the floor. The big question will be, if Phil Jackson keeps Kobe on him, and how much Kobe invests into defense. On the other side of the floor, I've really only got one thing to say; it's Kobe Bryant. Of course, this is the league-wide no 1 defense he's going against, and his previous two outings against Boston he's shot a combined 15-46, that's 32.6% for a guy who normally averages 45.9%. Expect to see Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins to come out and help alot, but of course, still expect Kobe to try to get his 30 per game. He's not considered the MVP and the best player in the game for nothing.

SF- Boston: Paul Pierce; LA: Vladamir Radmonovic
I wouldn't be very surpised if Phil Jackson opted to go with Trevor Ariza or Sasha Vujacic depending on whether he puts Kobe on Pierce or Allen. Radmonovic has size on Pierce and nothing else. A lot is going to be on Pierce, and while he won't have to replicate his showdown with Lebron James, it wouldn't hurt if he pulled out another 41 point performance. None of the above players mentioned are huge offensive threats, so I don't think Pierce will have too hard of a problem covering any one of them, please smack me if Radmonovic or Ariza suddenly go off for 29 points.

PF- Boston: Kevin Garnett; LA: Lamar Odom
This is where the matchups get a little muddy, but I'm going to base it on the starting lineups that the two teams seem to favor. The biggest question of matchups is here in the front court, and how Odom and Gasol will be matched up against Garnett and Perkins. Some have Gasol on Garnett and Odom on Perkins, and others have Garnett on Odom. I think that either way, one of the Lakers' major offensive threats will be shut down with Kevin Garnett on him. I personally would have Garnett body up against Gasol, but who knows? On the other side, the same problem persists, Odom is just not a good enough post player to guard Garnett, and against Kendrick Perkins he's giving a good 34 pounds in the paint. That's a lot of size. Gasol on the other hand, would do a better job, but I think Garnett does everything Gasol can do better (except maybe shooting), and will still find ways to produce. Perkins is just sort of the garbage man, benefitting off all the attention Garnett draws in the post and that Pierce and Allen draw off their slashing, with the dunk off the double team.

C- Boston: Kendrick Perkins; LA: Pau Gasol
As mentioned above, Perkins will kind of be the beneficiary of any double teams and help defense LA will throw up against the Big 3, and he's no slouch on defense. I think he could give Pau Gasol some trouble if he guarded him, and he definitely will force Odom to pass out or go to his jump shot, and that's probably shakier than LeBron's. Odom won't be able to finish at the rim the way he likes to, and he'll likely have to work that much harder on the glass for rebounds if he's matched up against Perkins. Gasol will likely be experiencing a very physical brand of basketball between Perkins and Garnett, granted he survived San Antonio with Tim Duncan and Kurt Thomas (and Fabricio Oberto), but I think that they'll lock down on him even more in Boston. We'll see how he fares, but given Bostons strong defense, I really don't anticipate him averaging 20 pts a game through the series, I think even 10 rebounds will be tough for him.

Bench- Boston: Sam Cassell, Eddie House, James Posey, Glen Davis, PJ Brown; LA: Jordan Farmar, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic, Ronny Turiaf
As good as the Lakers bench has played, I still like Boston's bench better. I'll take James Posey over Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza any day. The fact is, is that most of LA's bench has been relegated to a role playing position, and despite the inconsistencies of Boston's bench, I think they're more liable to make a bigger difference in the game than the reserves from LA. PJ Brown has shown that he can make key put backs and clutch shots, Big Baby has really stepped it up, and Eddie House and Sam Cassell can still make their shots. Farmar and Vujacic have shown sparks of being great role players, but when it comes down to the wire, I think the veterancy will pay off. Posey, Cassell, and Brown just bring too many intangibles to the floor that the Lakers' bench is lacking. If we assume that Gasol and Bryant cancel out the Big Three, then it comes down to the reserves and role players, and as far as the reserves are concerned, I think that the Boston bench can and will contribute more than the Lakers.

Having home court advantage definitely makes it a very, very promising situation for Boston as well. They like playing in the Garden. It'll be the long, drawn out, Showtime series that David Stern was looking for, but in the end, I think Boston just wants it more. Too much desire from too many snubbed All Stars, Kobe's been there, done that, and he and his team know that they're still young, they've still got their chances, Kobe's already got his rings and now he has his MVP. Between Garnett, Pierce, and Allen (and you could throw in Sam Cassell for good measure), there's too much desire, having been so close, having the taste of being champions, but never quite getting there, now's their time.

Boston in 7, you heard it here. Someone's gotta predict something in order to be right or wrong.

Western Conference Wrapup

The better team won. That's right, you heard me say it, in overall talent and ability, I think the LA Lakers are a better team than the San Antonio Spurs. They just have more dynamic pieces to work around. Doesn't mean I like the Lakers any more or that I'm jumping on their band wagon, I'm stating a simple fact, the team with the better roster won. Despite a valiant effort by both Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, the rest of the Spurs were simply out hustled and out played by a younger Lakers team. Robert Horry didn't hit the big shots like they needed him to, Michael Finley played his usual Jekyl and Hyde basketball, no one on the rosters outside of Parker and Duncan are tremendously consistent. Sure Ginobili played the best season of his career, but when it came to the playoffs, he didn't have much left to give. He beat his body up again and again and this time, it just didn't have enough juice to run through the last stretch. All in all, it was a good run, I thought that the older team with the experience and the desperation would be able to pressure the younger Lakers (especially the bench) into bad plays, they proved me wrong.

I never expected the Spurs to stop Kobe, I likely won't expect anything short of an early exit from the game (due to injury or ejection) to keep me from pencilling him in for at least a good 25 points every game. I think that all in all, Kobe did a good job of stepping up the bar for his young teammates and leading them to this hard earned win. He's building a team that understands, despite having the best player in the game, they can't just sit and watch him do his magic, they're on the floor for a reason, and they have to do their part. He's convinced Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Derek Fisher, Sasha Vujajic, Luke Walton, Vladamir Radmonovic, etc... that they need to play together, and they've done it well. They look at the Spurs and realized that this is what made them a championship team, it wasn't Tim Duncan's amazing fundamental post ability (though that sure does help), it isn't Tony Parker's speed and penetration ability (that helps too), it wasn't Manu Ginobili's ability to make so many "impossible shots" (certainly doesn't hurt), but it was the fact that they functioned as one unit that made them so deadly. They stepped up to the challenge, and in the end, the younger legs and better talent won out. Certainly it doesn't hurt to have the best player in the league on your team too.

Spurs have realized that they need fresher and younger legs, while I admit that the Lakers are a better team talent wise, I think much of it was that the Spurs beat themselves. Role players weren't playing their role (a kudos as well to good Lakers defense), weren't able to play their roles, and the lumbering machine from San Antonio was brought to a grinding halt. I think the defense that Spurs played was phenomenal, the series produced some of the Lakers' worst offensive performances in this postseason. However, when they needed the shot to fall, it wasn't there. With Tony Parker being the youngest player to crack the rotation (age 26), and all other players hitting their 30s, Popovich and the Spurs front office need to bring and infusion of youth into their roster. It's obvious that while Ginobili is still kicking, the aggresive style of play that he so favors is wearing on his body. As Spurs slip into a quiet phase of rebuilding (I imagine they'll be just as quiet if not more so than Detroit), they'll continue to contend, they have to. The teams in the West are young and talented, we've seen this with Utah, with New Orleans, and now with the Lakers (don't even get me started on the Blazers).

I could go into the David Stern "Showtime" conspiracy, but, I hold no grudges, I thought the veteran team could pull the win, but I was wrong. Good job Kobe, way to hold your team together.