Next team up is the Chicago Bulls, the once great dynasty from the 1990s, oh, how the great have fallen.
Coach: Vinny Del Negro
PG: Derrick Rose, Jannero Pargo
SG: Kirk Hinrich, Flip Murray
SF: Luol Deng, James Johnson
PF: Taj Gibson, Hakim Warrick
C: Joakim Noah, Brad Miller
Reserves: Acie Law, Devin Brown, Rob Kurz, Chris Richard, Joe Alexander
I don't know where to start with this team. I know Kelly Dwyer from Yahoo! Sports has a soft spot for this team. I personally was rooting for the Mailman during the Finals in 1997 and 1998. Now... well, frankly, they only made the Playoffs because the Raptors really are that bad. I don't know enough about Del Negro to say how he does as head coach, but I've heard enough stories to know that he's not really that good, and I suppose I'm putting it a little more nicely than some of them. Derrick Rose has shown potential, but not a whole lot else. Sure he can score, sure he's fast, sure he can get assists, but his shot selection isn't stellar and he takes probably the most inefficient shot in basketball at a very, very high clip. Everyone else, well, everyone else is a plug piece. Noah and Gibson are both energy guys in the mold of someone like Anderson Varejao, while Deng, one of the premier mid-range shooters in the league, is primarily a viable instant-offense second option. Hinrich is a facilitator and defensive specialist, great piece but only in the right system (say Portland?). This means Derrick Rose is the go-to guy, not a go-to guy I'd look for.
I think most of these guys are expiring contracts. Word on the street is Vinny Del Negro is out, but in terms of players, it's hard to say. The obvious answer is a more consistent scorer, optimally someone in the post. However, if we like Taj Gibson. Well, I don't know that they want to get rid of or give up on Derrick Rose yet, but maybe an offensive option in the 2 and defensive options off the bench, better than James Johnson, Jannero Pargo, and Flip Murray. Maybe a fully healthy Luol Deng will make the difference, but I can't say how much so. Nothing short of a major re-haul, but maybe I'm biased, I don't really like anyone on the team aside from Deng.
Showing posts with label Playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Playoffs. Show all posts
Monday, May 3, 2010
The Exit Roll: Charlotte Bobcats
I apologize for those people that are looking to read my witty exposition and my failure to write for you. Anyways, so here is my next piece, or set of pieces. I'm looking at the teams that got ousted from the first round of the playoffs and how I think they can change it. Let's go:
The Charlotte Bobcats. Well, they did a lot better than people thought they would. I personally think that they got bad luck drawing the Magic for the first round. I really think that they had a shot if they drew Boston, but instead, they had to face Dwight Howard and a rather embarrassing first round sweep as their franchise playoff debut. So going into this post season, how can they get better? Well, let's start at the logical place, what do they have now?
Head Coach: Larry Brown
PG: Raymond Felton, D.J. Augustin
SG: Stephen Jackson, Larry Hughes
SF: Gerald Wallace, Stephen Graham
PF: Boris Diaw, Tyrus Thomas
C: Theo Ratliff, Tyson Chandler
Reserves: Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, Gerald Henderson, Alexis Ajinca
My first reaction to this roster is simply that, I like it. It's a good lineup full of good players. However, a slew of "good" players don't make up for the glaring lack of excellent players. Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson are known for their above-average defense, and if Gerald Wallace weren't so injury prone then I would call him one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and Stephen Jackson, well, he's showing his age. Boris Diaw, well, he's not consistent, but when he's on, he's a good defender and Tyson Chandler is one of the premier post defenders in the league, but Chandler is also known to be an injury liability. While I think Jackson and Wallace are decent offensively, the Bobcats don't really have a go-to offensive option. Most notably they don't have a presence in the post, while Jackson is decent, he's not great and not someone I'd consider go-to down low. Then, neither are Diaw, Tyrus Thomas, Theo Ratliff, nor Tyson Chandler. Nazr Mohammed is decent, but I understand the reservation Larry Brown has for giving Mohammed extended minutes, we saw how that worked out in every team Mohammed's been on except San Antonio, and of course, that might have something to do with a little someone named Tim Duncan.
I like the core of Jackson, Wallace, and Chandler, and Gerald Henderson looks to be a good prospect, but they need someone, someone that can put points on the board, and given their age and injury track record, they have to win NOW. I don't think they can get rid of Diaw, and Larry Hughes is an expiring contract, but to be honest, I can't say they have very attractive tradeable assets. You figure that with 5 different centers they'd figure out something of a big man rotation, but given who it is, DeSagana Diop, Alexis Ajinca, Nazr Mohammed, and Theo Ratliff, they're not really tradeable. The obvious upgrades, at least positionally, are PG or PF. Raymond Felton and Boris Diaw, serviceable, but only if you have some offensive options next to them. Given Stephen Jackson's underrated passing ability, maybe a score-first point guard (Gilbert Arenas?) or something... Otherwise, a solid post scorer at PF (Carlos Boozer?). I don't know that free agency is really an option to be frank, I don't know that they have the cap-space, so it's gotta be a trade, but they have all these bloated contracts: Diaw, Diop, Mohammed, etc... We'll see how it works. Hopefully Michael Jordan doesn't call too many of the shots.
The Charlotte Bobcats. Well, they did a lot better than people thought they would. I personally think that they got bad luck drawing the Magic for the first round. I really think that they had a shot if they drew Boston, but instead, they had to face Dwight Howard and a rather embarrassing first round sweep as their franchise playoff debut. So going into this post season, how can they get better? Well, let's start at the logical place, what do they have now?
Head Coach: Larry Brown
PG: Raymond Felton, D.J. Augustin
SG: Stephen Jackson, Larry Hughes
SF: Gerald Wallace, Stephen Graham
PF: Boris Diaw, Tyrus Thomas
C: Theo Ratliff, Tyson Chandler
Reserves: Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, Gerald Henderson, Alexis Ajinca
My first reaction to this roster is simply that, I like it. It's a good lineup full of good players. However, a slew of "good" players don't make up for the glaring lack of excellent players. Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson are known for their above-average defense, and if Gerald Wallace weren't so injury prone then I would call him one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and Stephen Jackson, well, he's showing his age. Boris Diaw, well, he's not consistent, but when he's on, he's a good defender and Tyson Chandler is one of the premier post defenders in the league, but Chandler is also known to be an injury liability. While I think Jackson and Wallace are decent offensively, the Bobcats don't really have a go-to offensive option. Most notably they don't have a presence in the post, while Jackson is decent, he's not great and not someone I'd consider go-to down low. Then, neither are Diaw, Tyrus Thomas, Theo Ratliff, nor Tyson Chandler. Nazr Mohammed is decent, but I understand the reservation Larry Brown has for giving Mohammed extended minutes, we saw how that worked out in every team Mohammed's been on except San Antonio, and of course, that might have something to do with a little someone named Tim Duncan.
I like the core of Jackson, Wallace, and Chandler, and Gerald Henderson looks to be a good prospect, but they need someone, someone that can put points on the board, and given their age and injury track record, they have to win NOW. I don't think they can get rid of Diaw, and Larry Hughes is an expiring contract, but to be honest, I can't say they have very attractive tradeable assets. You figure that with 5 different centers they'd figure out something of a big man rotation, but given who it is, DeSagana Diop, Alexis Ajinca, Nazr Mohammed, and Theo Ratliff, they're not really tradeable. The obvious upgrades, at least positionally, are PG or PF. Raymond Felton and Boris Diaw, serviceable, but only if you have some offensive options next to them. Given Stephen Jackson's underrated passing ability, maybe a score-first point guard (Gilbert Arenas?) or something... Otherwise, a solid post scorer at PF (Carlos Boozer?). I don't know that free agency is really an option to be frank, I don't know that they have the cap-space, so it's gotta be a trade, but they have all these bloated contracts: Diaw, Diop, Mohammed, etc... We'll see how it works. Hopefully Michael Jordan doesn't call too many of the shots.
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Round 2: Who's left standing?
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Boston Celtics vs (3) Orlando Magic
Series tied 2-2
When I look at the current roster breakdowns I really can't say that an already thin Boston squad, less Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe should have any chance. However, I don't know that Orlando has a fully healthy squad either, as both Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis were battling injury prior to entering the post-season. Given how rought the first round with the 76ers was, I highly doubt that either one is back 100%, and so, we have a series. It's not like both teams held home court either, they both split their homecourt showings so far in the series. However beat the Magic may feel though, the Celtics must feel even more so, as their stars are older and they had to go through a grueling 7 game series with Chicago in the first round, including a total of 7 overtimes played in addition to the 336 minutes of regulation gameplay.
Without Garnett, the Garden is no longer an impregnable fortress, the Celtics are but a shadow of themselves last season, their roster coming in from last season has gone from stellar to above-average to now sitting somewhere at slightly above-average. I personally don't think their chances really lie with Ray Allen finding his stroke, with Paul Pierce attacking the basket and getting to the line more, but really with how well Rajon Rondo plays, without Garnett, Rondo becomes all that much more important to making the Celtics run, losing the defensive presence of Garnett means that Rondo has to step it up on the offensive end, making up for those lost stops, because realistically, no combination of Mikki Moore, Glen Davis, and Brian Scalabrine can make up for that, tack onto that the loss on the offensive end and the loss of Leon Powe, and you need someone to step up. Maybe Eddie House does it every third game, maybe Ray Allen gets hot, but consistently you need someone to replace one of the legs of the tripod that is the Big 3, Rondo's the closest to that right now, hopefully the fit doesn't make the Celtics too wobbly.
I'd like to give the series straight away to Orlando, but for some reason, the Magic always have me kind of second-guessing myself whenever I want to pick them, or maybe I just second-guess myself a lot in general. Kelly Dwyer mentions how Hedo Turkoglu is playing significantly worse than he did in the regular season, and that is a cause for concern. Magic fans may be out to lynch me for this, but I honestly don't see Hedo as a long-term solution to the Magic franchise, and therefore, is expendable (via sign-and-trade maybe). However, that's just me speculating. Fortunately, Rashard Lewis is picking up the slack somewhat, averaging an additional 2.4 points, 0.7 rebounds, and 0.6 assists in an additional 2+ minutes of play. Additionally, rookie Courtney Lee has definitely looked to be a solid contributor. Something about the Magic not being able to close out games has definitely worried me some when it comes to this squad, however, I'm still confident that Dwight Howard's dominance will carry through. In light of Kendrick Perkins' injury, the Magic have the obvious advantage, in that, even if Perkins plays, he won't be 100% and therefore, no one can really contain Dwight. Hopefully Stan Van Gundy will use this to his advantage.
While I second-guess myself, I'm still going to go with my pick: Orlando in 6.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (5) Houston Rockets
Series Tied 2-2
Everyone thought the series was over when Yao Ming broke his foot. Lakers would take Game 4, thereby sweeping Rockets at the Toyota Center, and then handily exit the Rockets out of their first taste of the second round in a long, long time. That was what was supposed to happen. Obviously by the way I'm writing, it didn't. You've all heard about how Lakers just didn't show up in Game 4 and therefore the Rockets (namely Aaron Brooks) walked all over them. 34 points for Brooks, 23 for Battier, Lakers were just getting out-hustled out there. I mean, this is the Rockets surviving a 4-19 shooting night from Ron Artest.
Moving forward from there, I'm sure the Lakers have woken up, though they tend to take like every other game off in the playoffs, I fully expect them to handily wipe the floor with the Rockets in Game 5, which should make Game 6 interesting, because, do the Lakers get complacent again or do they keep playing with intensity? Talent has never really been a question for the Lakers, but desire has always been. Now we tack on to that the issues with Andrew Bynum's knee and Lamar Odom's back, the once invincible Lakers are starting to show more than just some minor kinks in their armor, everyone's starting to think, maybe the Lakers aren't quite as invincible as everyone thought in the regular season. Unfortunately for the Lakers, the Rockets are a team that matches up fairly well against them, in that they have multiple defensive options (Shane Battier and Ron Artest) to throw at Kobe, and their no-fouling defensive rotations don't allow the Lakers to punish them by getting to the free throw line.
Rockets are now down their two top go-to options in Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. They have an ever decreasing margin of error because they no longer have score-at-will players on the floor. However, given how team-oriented the Rockets' offense runs, it doesn't seem to bother them too much, however, I would be a little worried as a Rockets fan because you can't really bank on 34 and 23 point performances from Aaron Brooks and Shane Battier consistently. However, if the right people get hot at the right time, there's still a shot. Ron Artest has obviously been playing sub-par, but a good game from him at the right time, could be all the difference. One thing with losing Yao is that Lakers lose the running advantage they once had, however they gain a tremendous size advantage as Adelman has decided to start Carl Landry next to Luis Scola, and now the Rockets have no player over 6-9 (except maybe Chuck Hayes) in their rotation. However, the Rockets need to look to exploit the PG matchups as much as possible as Brooks and Lowry both run circles around Fisher.
The logical side of me says Lakers in 6, but I'm feeling gutsy today, Rockets in 7.
(2) Denver Nuggets vs (6) Dallas Mavericks
Nuggets lead series 3-1
I was really expecting this to be over yesterday, but I also am not tremendously surprised by the fact that this went to a 5th game. I don't really feel like talking about the whole Kenyon Martin and Mark Cuban thing as there's already a lot out there about it. To put it succinctly, Denver is the better team, but Dallas just willed themselves out of a sweep. I'm actually fairly surprised by how well Denver has been playing and in light of that, with game 5 going back to the Mile High City, Dallas doesn't really stand a chance. I don't have anything more to say about this. Denver in 5.
(2) Boston Celtics vs (3) Orlando Magic
Series tied 2-2
When I look at the current roster breakdowns I really can't say that an already thin Boston squad, less Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe should have any chance. However, I don't know that Orlando has a fully healthy squad either, as both Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis were battling injury prior to entering the post-season. Given how rought the first round with the 76ers was, I highly doubt that either one is back 100%, and so, we have a series. It's not like both teams held home court either, they both split their homecourt showings so far in the series. However beat the Magic may feel though, the Celtics must feel even more so, as their stars are older and they had to go through a grueling 7 game series with Chicago in the first round, including a total of 7 overtimes played in addition to the 336 minutes of regulation gameplay.
Without Garnett, the Garden is no longer an impregnable fortress, the Celtics are but a shadow of themselves last season, their roster coming in from last season has gone from stellar to above-average to now sitting somewhere at slightly above-average. I personally don't think their chances really lie with Ray Allen finding his stroke, with Paul Pierce attacking the basket and getting to the line more, but really with how well Rajon Rondo plays, without Garnett, Rondo becomes all that much more important to making the Celtics run, losing the defensive presence of Garnett means that Rondo has to step it up on the offensive end, making up for those lost stops, because realistically, no combination of Mikki Moore, Glen Davis, and Brian Scalabrine can make up for that, tack onto that the loss on the offensive end and the loss of Leon Powe, and you need someone to step up. Maybe Eddie House does it every third game, maybe Ray Allen gets hot, but consistently you need someone to replace one of the legs of the tripod that is the Big 3, Rondo's the closest to that right now, hopefully the fit doesn't make the Celtics too wobbly.
I'd like to give the series straight away to Orlando, but for some reason, the Magic always have me kind of second-guessing myself whenever I want to pick them, or maybe I just second-guess myself a lot in general. Kelly Dwyer mentions how Hedo Turkoglu is playing significantly worse than he did in the regular season, and that is a cause for concern. Magic fans may be out to lynch me for this, but I honestly don't see Hedo as a long-term solution to the Magic franchise, and therefore, is expendable (via sign-and-trade maybe). However, that's just me speculating. Fortunately, Rashard Lewis is picking up the slack somewhat, averaging an additional 2.4 points, 0.7 rebounds, and 0.6 assists in an additional 2+ minutes of play. Additionally, rookie Courtney Lee has definitely looked to be a solid contributor. Something about the Magic not being able to close out games has definitely worried me some when it comes to this squad, however, I'm still confident that Dwight Howard's dominance will carry through. In light of Kendrick Perkins' injury, the Magic have the obvious advantage, in that, even if Perkins plays, he won't be 100% and therefore, no one can really contain Dwight. Hopefully Stan Van Gundy will use this to his advantage.
While I second-guess myself, I'm still going to go with my pick: Orlando in 6.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs (5) Houston Rockets
Series Tied 2-2
Everyone thought the series was over when Yao Ming broke his foot. Lakers would take Game 4, thereby sweeping Rockets at the Toyota Center, and then handily exit the Rockets out of their first taste of the second round in a long, long time. That was what was supposed to happen. Obviously by the way I'm writing, it didn't. You've all heard about how Lakers just didn't show up in Game 4 and therefore the Rockets (namely Aaron Brooks) walked all over them. 34 points for Brooks, 23 for Battier, Lakers were just getting out-hustled out there. I mean, this is the Rockets surviving a 4-19 shooting night from Ron Artest.
Moving forward from there, I'm sure the Lakers have woken up, though they tend to take like every other game off in the playoffs, I fully expect them to handily wipe the floor with the Rockets in Game 5, which should make Game 6 interesting, because, do the Lakers get complacent again or do they keep playing with intensity? Talent has never really been a question for the Lakers, but desire has always been. Now we tack on to that the issues with Andrew Bynum's knee and Lamar Odom's back, the once invincible Lakers are starting to show more than just some minor kinks in their armor, everyone's starting to think, maybe the Lakers aren't quite as invincible as everyone thought in the regular season. Unfortunately for the Lakers, the Rockets are a team that matches up fairly well against them, in that they have multiple defensive options (Shane Battier and Ron Artest) to throw at Kobe, and their no-fouling defensive rotations don't allow the Lakers to punish them by getting to the free throw line.
Rockets are now down their two top go-to options in Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. They have an ever decreasing margin of error because they no longer have score-at-will players on the floor. However, given how team-oriented the Rockets' offense runs, it doesn't seem to bother them too much, however, I would be a little worried as a Rockets fan because you can't really bank on 34 and 23 point performances from Aaron Brooks and Shane Battier consistently. However, if the right people get hot at the right time, there's still a shot. Ron Artest has obviously been playing sub-par, but a good game from him at the right time, could be all the difference. One thing with losing Yao is that Lakers lose the running advantage they once had, however they gain a tremendous size advantage as Adelman has decided to start Carl Landry next to Luis Scola, and now the Rockets have no player over 6-9 (except maybe Chuck Hayes) in their rotation. However, the Rockets need to look to exploit the PG matchups as much as possible as Brooks and Lowry both run circles around Fisher.
The logical side of me says Lakers in 6, but I'm feeling gutsy today, Rockets in 7.
(2) Denver Nuggets vs (6) Dallas Mavericks
Nuggets lead series 3-1
I was really expecting this to be over yesterday, but I also am not tremendously surprised by the fact that this went to a 5th game. I don't really feel like talking about the whole Kenyon Martin and Mark Cuban thing as there's already a lot out there about it. To put it succinctly, Denver is the better team, but Dallas just willed themselves out of a sweep. I'm actually fairly surprised by how well Denver has been playing and in light of that, with game 5 going back to the Mile High City, Dallas doesn't really stand a chance. I don't have anything more to say about this. Denver in 5.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Moving forward, onward, whatever you want to call it...
Post season is over, well, for some teams, so far the Pistons, Jazz, Spurs, and most recently the Hornets. I got a chance to see 3 minutes of the 4th quarter of game 4 of the Houston-Portland matchup. So it goes without saying that I haven't really been following the Playoffs very closely, rather, almost not at all, besides Kelly Dwyer's Behind the Boxscore that shows up in my feeds every morning. I don't really have time or the inclination to go through and talk about every team that was bounced and how they should improve. How the Pistons really went into the post season not really caring because the team was built on a core that probably won't be there next year. How Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are walking next year, and how the only players that are guaranteed to be wearing Piston's blue come September are Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum. How the Carlos Boozer probably won't be returning to the Jazz, how he's overpaid and overrated, and how they were plagued with injuries. How no one other than Jerry Sloan is willing to take ownership of the team, which it what keeps it from being championship caliber. How the Hornets' roster of Chris Paul, Rasual Butler, Peja Stojakovic, David West, Tyson Chandler, Antonio Daniels, James Posey, Sean Marks, and Hilton Armstrong are the modern day Western Conference equivalent to the 2006-2007 Cleveland Cavaliers roster of Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, LeBron James, Drew Gooden, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Daniel Gibson, Eric Snow, Ira Newble, Donyell Marshall, and Anderson Varejao.
If you've read me long enough, you know I'm a Spurs fan, and so, as you've likely guessed, I'm going to talk about the Spurs. While it bothers me somewhat that it's Dallas of all teams that's ousting my beloved Spurs, rather embarassingly, from the first round, there's a part of me that's sort of glad that they were rather soundly trounced. No one ever likes seeing their team lose, but nonetheless, I hope that Greg Popovich and RC Buford see this as a strong wakeup call that it's not 2005 anymore. While Tony Parker has evolved to become the star that everyone hoped for, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan, while by no means quickly losing ground to old age, aren't really quite what they were almost 5 years ago. I don't want to hear the, "If only Manu were healthy..." excuses, the fact of the matter remains, outside of the Big 3 of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker, the San Antonio Spurs are a mediocre team, at best.
Please don't tell me otherwise, I have no delusions of grandeur. Don't tell me how Roger Mason has been clutch, because while he's made a couple of big shots, he's a relatively ineffecient player and scorer. He's just getting more attention because he's not buried behind Gilbert Arenas and Antonio Daniels on the Wizards. In the additional 9 minutes of play he's averaging an additional 2.7 points, 1.5 rebounds, 0.4 assists, and 0.3 turnovers on 3 additional shot attempts, shooting roughly the same percentages (with a slightly increased 3pt shooting percentage I attribute to better looks). 11 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assist, with essentially no steals, no blocks, and a couple of threes in 30+ minutes of play isn't my definition of stellar. The guy turns 29 by the start of the next regular season, so I can't really imagine him getting better. Don't get me wrong, he's solid, an average role player, I just don't want people getting the wrong idea he's some kind of savior. If you don't believe me, check his per 36 numbers between this year and last. He actually did better last year because he had to facilitate more, since the only time he got to see significant floor time was when both Arenas and Daniels were injured.
I know Michael Finley can get hot once and a while and shoot the Spurs to a win. However, the distance between such games is growing ever larger. The man is 36, we have to remember that. He's almost 10 years removed from his best season. This isn't the 1999 22 point per game Michael Finley, this is the 2009 9 point per game, with streaky 3s, as capable of being red hot as he is consistently ice cold.
While Bruce Bowen is a solid contributor on the defensive end, he's about a month shy of 38. In basketball terms, 38 is a big number, when referring to age, big numbers are bad. Ok, maybe not "bad" but certainly it doesn't help his athleticism and ability to stay in front of younger, more athletic players. Same goes for Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto, who are 36 and 34 respectively.
Finally, while Matt Bonner has been a pleasant surprise this season, it's only because everyone had absolutely no expectations about him whatsoever coming into the season. When nothing turns out to be something, it's always something of a shock (in a good way). Let's be honest though, while Bonner's production was somewhat serindipidous, he's not much more than a poor man's version of Al Harrington or Andrea Bargnani. That's pretty bad. Granted, he's no Mark Blount or Brian Cook, but still, I don't know that it merits 23 minutes per game.
Jacque Vaughn was, well... Jacque Vaughn, I don't know that I really need to say much more than that. As for Drew Gooden, it was too little, too late. He's good, and he played fairly well with the Spurs, but I think that he's going to want more than he's worth, at least to the Spurs. There are other intricacies involved with Gooden, I'll get into that later.
Generally speaking, you could probably just read Timothy Varner's post at 48 Minutes regarding how the Spurs should move forward, which boils down a lot of the needs. It doesn't quite sum up what I want to talk about, but definitely is worth reading. I take a slightly different approach from Varner, but I think his ideas have merit and work too. Sounds like Varner is going to have a bunch of upcoming posts as to how the Spurs should improve their roster, so I'd always keep an eye on what Graydon and Varner have going on there, it's usually good stuff.
As you might've heard, the salary cap is supposed to fall. If you're not sure what that means, it means that teams are allowed less money to sign their players. Since as the cap falls, so does the luxury tax threshhold and likely the mid-level exception. The current salary cap is set at $58.68 million, it's expected to drop to $57.3 million, now in terms of salary flexibility, it doesn't mean much for the Spurs, as they're over the cap either way, however, if the MLE drops, they have less money with which to improve their roster. If we look at the roster next season, the Spurs will have approximately $66 million in salary tied up in Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Thomas, Bowen, Mason, Bonner, Hill, Mahinmi (if they exercise their team option), and Finley (if he exercises his player option). Of the above mentioned players, the core I think Spurs should rebuild around are Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Hill, and Mahinmi. While it would be nice to retain Mason and maybe Bonner, I personally don't think it necessary, and am willing to part with them, if it means an improvement to the roster, in short, they're not untouchable.
So far, the only thing the Spurs really have to play around with are expiring contracts, as everyone on the roster except essentially Duncan and Parker are not guaranteed past 2010. Given that a lot of teams are probably looking to cut costs, it's not a bad situation to be in. We'll see how all that pans out though. However, before we start looking into that, I want to address one thing:
In short, my answer is: no. I suppose I should probably expound on that a little bit, there are various posts/comments and such around the internet regarding whether or not Manu should be traded. There are various reasons to think consider trading Manu. He's 32, he's beat up, and he's not getting younger, and therefore has the "injury-prone" label applied to him, especially given his style of play, granted, he's never played a whole season in his 7 season in the NBA, but still, he has been playing basketball essentially for the past 2-3 years (since the 2006-2007 season), straight, meaning no offseason (FIBA qualifiers and then Olympics). I'm not going to get into whether or not he should've been allowed to represent Argentina in the international games, but I'm just going to say this, while the Spurs pay him, they don't own him. Let the man make his decisions. You don't see Laker fans complain about how Kobe put off hand surgery and represented the US, oh yeah, Kobe's turning 31 by the way.
Anyways I digress. While I won't off handedly turn down any offers for Manu (like say LeBron for Manu), I don't believe that it's in the Spurs' best interest to trade him. Firstly, as he has the "injury-prone" label, I don't think his stock is that high. Yes, I think we all realize that he's only one season removed from the best statistical season he's ever had (2007-2008), but still, given that he hasn't played for most of the year, and only played a gimpy 44 games this season, I don't know that the Spurs could really get anything of significant value back for him. Secondly, I believe that Ginobili can still continue to contribute to the Spurs, and I honestly don't want to take the risk that Ginobili comes back with a vengence next season, on a different team. I can't really articulate another reason beyond that it just feels wrong, but I honestly think that a player of Ginobili's ilk is definitely something the Spurs need and it brings an intangible aspect of mojo and chemistry to the lockerroom. I'm sure Ginobili will be reasonable about what to expect in the form of an extension next season. Spurs are good at drafting players that usually are (reasonable about their salary).
So what've we got to work with? Well, simply put, we have the MLE (approximately $5 million), tack on another million or so for a veteran's minimum, plus upwards of $20 million in expiring contracts. Rumors are swirling about how Rasheed Wallace is a significant possibility come this offseason. While 'Sheed isn't exactly what the Spurs need to get younger (he turns 35 by next season), he's definitely what the Spurs want in another big man to play around Duncan. He's solid in the low post, he's a decent mid-range to long-range shooter, he's effective as a defender for a big man, he's a shot blocking presence, a decent rebounder, and he's played for a defense-first championship caliber Detroit Pistons. Finally, 'Sheed being 35, would likely not field offers anywhere near his current salary of $13 million per year. If 'Sheed is serious about winning another ring, there's not much better place than the one team that has won the most rings in the past 10 years (4 since 1999, Lakers have 3, Pistons 1, Miami 1, Boston 1). Timothy Varner mentions somewhere in his post that Spurs might be able to get Wallace for about $3.5 million of the MLE, ok, let's say he takes that much, what are the Spurs' other options now?
I've been pretty extensive looking through the free agency list, and honestly, for under $2 million, I don't know that we could sign anyone great, reasonably, I say we have a decent shot at someone like Walter Herrmann, who's been somewhat buried in the Piston's roster ever since the trade for Allen Iverson. Herrmann is currently signed for $2 million, I don't know if Pistons want to keep him, but surely, the Spurs could afford to try to throw at least a little money at him. Marquis Daniels is another intriguing option, but it's possible that he might be commanding a little more than Spurs could really afford.
Given the money situation, restricted free agents like Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Paul Millsap, Brandon Bass are all a little out of reach. Before we get any further though, so as not to utterly confuse you all, I suppose it would be best to sit down and hammer out what exactly the Spurs need. Well, the obvious answer would be, any player not named Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, or Manu Ginobili, but it helps to have something a bit more concrete of an idea. There are two dire needs that have shown up towards the waning stages of the regular season and well into the playoffs that seem to plague the Spurs.
First order of business I believe would be a legitimate big man to play next to Tim Duncan. The Spurs believed that it would be young French draft prospect Ian Mahinmi, but he was injured during the course of the season and therefore couldn't play. However, I don't really see Mahinmi being the solution in the near future. While he continues to develop under Duncan, I think that as of now, he'd best serve as a sort of energy man off the bench, much in the mold of Anderson Varejao or Brandon Bass. While, I've yet to see him play, hopefully he gets some more playing time and experience in and it pans out. However, the immediate need for a big man that can immediately step into a starting role and play next to Tim Duncan then still remains very real and very unfilled. The roles have traditionally been filled with big men that were able defenders and able to spread the floor with a mid-range jumper, generally spreading the floor and allowing Duncan to work his magic in the low post. For those that don't remember, this group includes David Robinson in the later years of his career, Rasho Nesterovic, and Fabricio Oberto. While Kurt Thomas fits this role fairly well, his offense is somewhat too inconsistent to rely on, hence, Popovich went with Matt Bonner, sacrificing defense for some added offense. While Drew Gooden might be serviceable, and while both he and Duncan can play on the block and pull out defenses, I'm not a fan of Gooden when he starts jacking up wing 20 footers. The general consensus is that his game isn't versatile enough and too similar to Duncan's for him to be worth much money to hold on to. Additionally, his weakness on the defensive end certainly doesn't help matters any.
Enter Rasheed Wallace. No one expects Wallace to carry a team anymore, and on the Spurs he won't have to. He's a solid man-to-man defender, and between him and Duncan, they can split defensive assignments against opposing bigs. While 'Sheed isn't inclined to play much in the low block anymore, he certainly is more than able when the need arises, and he won't have to really do it all that much. Additionally, the need for his offense is generally something he's been doing a lot of lately (much to the frustration of many Detroit fans I'm sure), that is, shooting outside jumpers. No one questions Wallace's ability to play solid defense in the post, and of course, Wallace, while not known to be a crusher, does add a much needed shot blocking presence outside of Duncan for the Spurs' frontcourt. The biggest caveat with Sheed is simply that he might be something of a headcase, however, I think that two things mitigate the risk and make it worth taking; first, if 'Sheed wants to win, he knows he has to shape up. Remember, he played for Larry Brown, I'm sure Greg Popovich is used to having to deal with antics as such after Dennis Rodman. Secondly, Tim Duncan will still be there to help keep 'Sheed in line.
Now, I don't believe Rasheed Wallace to be the ultimate answer, but he certainly is the most realistic and I believe will help the Spurs tremendously. Granted if I could choose any player flirting with free agency, I'd actually take Mehmet Okur over Rasheed Wallace. However, given the situation, I highly doubt that Okur would opt out of his contract from the Jazz ($9 million) as he knows given the market he won't get anything more, and I highly doubt that the Spurs could offer him much, unless they pulled a sign-and-trade. Varner declares the Spurs to be major players in the 2010 market, and he's probably better informed than I am, however, I still don't really see the Spurs making a huge splash. However, I'm not going to complain if Spurs manage to somehow nab Chris Bosh via free agency. Given that, if Spurs really are looking into the 2010 free agency, and that the only reason Mehmet Okur would opt out would be for a longer contract since he's not getting a bigger one, then I don't know that the Spurs would want to go for Okur. While I'm rather skeptical about the amount of involvement Spurs will have in the 2010 free agency, I'm in agreement with Varner that should we tie someone up long term, at a fairly steep price, we might as well swing for the fences. $10 million per for Mehmet Okur for the next 5 seasons isn't exactly my idea of a home run.
There are also a number of restricted free agents that might come cheap, names such as Paul Millsap, David Lee, Charlie Villanueva, and Brandon Bass have all played themselves into prominence. However, being RFAs, I don't believe that their respective teams are willing to let them just walk, especially not at whatever the Spurs might be asking for. Furthermore, I see all of these guys more as kind of hustle players, and therefore, I'm willing to let these guys walk for the sake of seeing how Mahinmi pans out. I don't see any of these guys starting well next to Duncan, hence I generally tend to look more for players that are center eligible, and I mean on a normal team, not in a Mike D'Antoni offense.
Secondly, I believe that an upgrade in the wing position is needed, primarily the starting and backup SF position. Currently, the spot is platooned between Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, and Ime Udoka. Now the commonality between the three is that they can all kind of hit threes, Bowen and Udoka are known more for their abilities on the defensive end, and Finley is just a slight upgrade offensively and downgrade defensively from the two. I believe this to be one of the biggest needs of the Spurs, and to make the biggest impact, I believe that the Spurs will have to trade themselves into a good spot. The biggest issue, is how the Spurs can't keep up with more athletic and younger teams, well to solve that, I would imagine the Spurs would just have to get more athletic and younger. Ideally, you'd want someone that can defend and hit threes (i.e. Bowen and Udoka). Now if I were to make a list of lockdown defenders, I could tell you that I don't see any of them falling into San Antonio in the near future, so, since we're likely not getting the likes of Shane Battier or Tayshaun Prince, I would propose that the Spurs alter some of the criteria, this would undoubtedly change the overall "feel" of the Spurs, but I think the long run make them better. I'll take an above average defender, esepcially if the Spurs land someone like Rasheed Wallace. I'm also willing to forgo 3 point shooting prowess to the level that said player can make enough to keep defenses honest.
That being said, I'm not sure that the free agency then is the best place in which the Spurs will be able to make a major splash and upgrade their roster, in which case they will need to do something via trade. However, one name in free agency that I've continually brought up and will continually bring up is the name of Walter Herrmann. I'm sure most of you are wondering who the heck I'm talking about, those of you that actually know me and have talked with me about basketball have surely heard his name mentioned somewhere in the course of conversation before. Fabio, as he's known in the basketball world, has proven that he's effective when he gets minutes. He's a little older, yes, turning 30 this June, however, he's on Detroit's books for $2 million and is a free agent this summer, and averages slightly more than 10 minutes per game, playing just under 6 minutes per during the playoffs. He's shown on Charlotte and in Detroit that if he's given extended minutes he can definitely do some damage. Additionally, he's a solid defender and can hit threes, he understands the team chemistry thing as he's won an Olympic gold medal playing with fellow Argentines Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto, so I don't see chemistry being a huge issue. He's not a guy that demands shots, and is someone that makes the most of them. He's virtually an ideal Spur. RC Buford, if you are reading this, and ignore everything else I say, FIND A WAY TO SIGN WALTER HERRMANN!!!
Anyways, there are a number of other options both in restricted and unrestricted free agency that seem to be fairly intriguing. My sign-and-trade dream player that's semi-realistic would likely be Marvin Williams, who's definitely shown that he can step up and play big when he's called to do so. The only reason I say semi-realistic is because of the ineptitude with which the Hawks' front office handled the Josh Smith and Josh Childress contracts last offseason. Additionally, he and Raymond Felton are the only players picked top 5 in their class to not have a contract extension agreement already reached (the other 3 players being Andrew Bogut, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul). Re-signing Williams should be something of a no-brainer for the Hawks, but it's possible that they re-sign Mike Bibby for way too much and can't afford to match offers made to Williams. Of course, I doubt the Spurs would be the ones making that sort of offer. Josh Childress would be another guy I'd look for, but I don't know that he's coming back from Europe quite yet, and again, Hawks still own his rights.
Another player to look at would be Marquis Daniels, who has played exceptionally well for the Pacers, in light of injuries to Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger throughout the season (mostly Dunleavy). He's rather expensive at the moment, so I don't really expect Indiana to pick up his $7.3 million team option. If he can be convinced to play for less, then it might be worthwhile.
Otherwise, the Spurs really have to look into various trade options in order to better improve their situation on the wings. Milwaukee looks to be a venue of possibility, however, the only player I'd really look into in Milwaukee would be Joe Alexander, as he's little used. While I'd rather have Luc Richard Mbah-a-Moute, I understand that Milwaukee probably would be a little unwilling to part with him. Alexander is somewhat little used and I see a lot of potential there that the Spurs could really tap into. I think a system like the Spurs is one where Alexander could really thrive in. The main problem is that I don't really see the Bucks adding salary just to get rid of Alexander, as they're looking to cut costs to be able to re-sign Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva. Therefore, it's possible that they might ask the Spurs to take Richard Jefferson as part of the package. While I'm not entirely against having Richard Jefferson on the roster, I am opposed to adding $13 million in salary for a single player while having to dump virtually all tradeable assets (it'd end up being something like Bowen, Oberto, Bonner, and Thomas for Jefferson and Alexander).
I'm actually not super opposed to taking on Jared Jeffries's contract on the condition we can land Wilson Chandler. Bowen and Oberto for Jeffries and Chandler would be the scenario. Of course, that likely tears a hole in any 2010 plans that the Spurs may have had.
Another player I'm rather fond of would be Kelenna Azubuike. Though I doubt the Warriors part with him, and would likely give the Spurs Jamal Crawford or Corey Maggette in the process, both at prices that I wouldn't want, it's still something to consider. That being said, I wouldn't mind seeing Stephen Jackson back in a Spurs uniform.
All in all, there aren't a whole lot of options out there, so I'm kind of digging the bottom of the barrel here. I highly doubt that the Spurs land Trevor Ariza somehow, but Jamario Moon might be another player that they decide to take a risk on. Ultimately, I'm sure RC Buford has a plan worked out, and he probably has better scouts for younger players in D-League and Europe than I do. As you can see, the Spurs need to seriously retool their roster. The premise I think will be generally the same, fundamentally sound, defensive basketball, just how it's done will be somewhat different. However, I think the Spurs, with the right moves, can definitely stay in the thick of it.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
What will it take?: San Antonio Spurs
I'm not going to hide it, I'm a Spurs fan. For this reason alone, I'm not allowed to post on Bright Side of the Sun, though they do have some good stuff, which I would love to comment, but, I'm a Spurs fan. Honestly, the only two spots that I really enjoy reading and posting on would have to be Pounding the Rock or Third Quarter Collapse. Anyways, that's not what I'm writing about here. However, as a final side note, if I were to actually get League Pass and start watching games on a regular basis, I would become a Spurs blogger, maybe I should... I'm seriously thinking about it. Anyways...
Onwards... I think Spurs are one of the other teams with a better chance of upsetting the Lakers in a 7-game series. Of course, there's a lot that has to go right in order for that to happen. What I want to do here, is discuss the things that "have to go right" in order for said upset (which I hope will happen) to happen. Spurs currently stand 3rd in the Western Conference, 1/2 a game behind Denver, 1/2 a game ahead of Houston, two teams, who, honestly, I don't think really have much of a chance. Should the season end with no change to the standings, the Spurs would be playing Portland for the first round and the winner of Denver/Utah (I pick Utah) in the second. Let me just say, those are two tough matchups. My personal hope is that Utah jumps to 5 to play Houston so then Lakers would have to go through them first before matching up with the Spurs (assuming both advance to the Western Conference Finals). Hope. Yeah.
So from a purely basketball standpoint, what do Spurs need? Well, firstly, the obvious answer is they need to be healthy. They need to be back 100%, full speed. The most noteable players they need to be certain are healthy are Manu Ginobili and Drew Gooden. Of course, they have to keep Tony Parker and Tim Duncan healthy for the remainder of the season too. One of the primary reasons I say this is because the Rockets and Nuggets are such good regular season teams, that I don't see them falling to a spot where the Spurs will play them (though maybe the Spurs might fall to a spot where they'll play them given their last two games). While I don't anticipate the Rockets or Nuggets making a whole lot of noise in the postseason (read: 1st round exit) I think they can stay in the top 4 spots and retain homecourt advantage. Additionally, I don't see Dallas gaining any ground to play anyone besides the Lakers, but that all could change, still, I think it's pretty unlikely. That means that the Spurs have to hit the playoffs running, because their first matchup is likely to be pretty challenging from the getgo, Portland, New Orleans, and Utah are the choices, and I'd really rather not have to face any of them in a playoff series. Manu is slowly working his way back, but he's not quite 100% yet, hopefully he makes a full recovery by playoffs.
If everyone is healthy, then we have to have Tony Parker continue to have a career season into the offseason. Next, Tim Duncan has to be, well, Tim Duncan. The big questionmarks then kind of fall to the role players. I know this all sounds kind of obvious, in the effect of saying "all the Spurs players just need to play well" but there does have to be some level of consistent production from Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, Drew Gooden, Kurt Thomas, and Roger Mason Jr in order for the Spurs to have a chance. While the core of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is a formidable offense (if healthy), you can't really bank on them wresting control of the game and pulling the team out of the fire as regularly or reliably as say Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, or even Paul Pierce. Parker has done it a couple of times, and it might save the Spurs in a couple of close ones, but it's not something to bank on. I think Bonner, Mason, and Bowen (and Udoka I guess) all know their role in the system, so I think the biggest x-factor here is going to be Drew Gooden. If Drew Gooden can play smart and work efficiently (i.e. not jack up flat-footed wing jumpers) then the Spurs are in good shape. What they need Gooden to do, is to grab rebounds (especially offensive ones) and get his points off those putbacks, and also to be able to keep his head on defense, which he's not known for doing, but still, a little effort wouldn't hurt.
Finally, I think Popovich needs to figure out his rotations. How to most effectively use his players.
MAKE MANU THE SUPER SIXTH MAN AGAIN
Firstly, I'm in agreement with most people that Manu should come off the bench. What this does is give the bench a lot of firepower and instant offense. I think that the most effective starting 5 for the Spurs thusfar this season has been Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, Duncan. It works, assuming (a fairly large if I guess) Mason, Finley, and Bonner can hit their open shots. Graydon a solid Spurs blogger makes a note of this in regards to the previous Spurs loss to OKC, well, not specifically in regards to the lineup but in regards to how Pop needs to work his rotations, there are other posts on it at Graydon (and co)'s blog. I know the subs aren't going to get tons of time come playoffs, but hey, the starters also need their rest, but I'd much rather see Hill, Ginobili, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas off than Vaughn, Mason, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas.
PLAY LESS MICHAEL FINLEY
One thing about this season I think that Pop has gone with is more firepower at the expense of some defense, which, I believe, given this roster is understandable. However, I don't know if that really dictates playing Michael Finley 30+ minutes per game. Right now, Finley's role is to hit open threes, which I believe given the minutes, either Udoka or Bowen can do effectively. So the second thing with the rotation is to limit Finley's minutes. I think those extra stops that Bowen/Udoka come up with will ultimately be more important, especially late game than the extra shots that Finley gets, especially when Finley isn't shooting well (in the last two losses Finley, while averaging 13 points has been shooting 10-28, that's 35.7%, ugh). In previous years, there was a lot of help from the middle from Duncan and one of Fransisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto, or Kurt Thomas, however, now with Bonner inserted as a key role in the lineup, I don't know that they can really afford to have another defensive liability on the floor.
PLAY MORE GEORGE HILL
Ok, so Hill might not be as great of a shooter as say Finley or Mason, but the idea is like that of playing less Finley and more Bowen/Udoka, the stops will be more important than the shots. One item of note that I found from the box score of the OKC game was really the rotation. I mean really, why is Jacque Vaughn playing 13+ minutes while George Hill gets a DNP? I know he's a rookie and inexperienced and all that, but isn't the last few games of the season a great time to get him that experience? While Vaughn knows how to make the offense go, he's really not much good on either end of the floor. Especially if Ginobili is the 6th man, I think that Hill wouldn't need to facilitate as much, since Ginobili will be there with him. This also moves Mason, who's not a great facilitator back to being the SG instead of the backup PG. I understand that Pop might want Mason on the floor, without getting considerably smaller (playing Mason at 2). While end-game situations might get iffy if Mason stays an SG since you might have to play Manu as a SF, I don't think that'll be as bad as more floor time for Michael Finley or something. I think he'll be crucial defensively especially as playoffs include the prospects of matching up against Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams.
I was discussing this with a friend (a Lakers fan) and while I think that a healthy Spurs outfit could sneak a 7 game series from the Lakers, there's one thing I failed to consider: David Stern hates the Spurs. That, I suppose is another uphill battle that the Spurs have to face, but at this point, it's all conspiracy theories. So these are what I think it will take for the Spurs to win. I believe that should everyone figure out the system and Pop sticks with a rotation that works, then Spurs have as good of a shot as anyone. Plus, it's an odd year.
Again Pop, here's my recommended rotation:
PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason Jr, Manu Ginobili
SF - Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka
PF - Matt Bonner, Drew Gooden
C - Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas
Don't play anyone else, though, I suppose you could stick Fab in there somewhere if he gets healthy again.
Onwards... I think Spurs are one of the other teams with a better chance of upsetting the Lakers in a 7-game series. Of course, there's a lot that has to go right in order for that to happen. What I want to do here, is discuss the things that "have to go right" in order for said upset (which I hope will happen) to happen. Spurs currently stand 3rd in the Western Conference, 1/2 a game behind Denver, 1/2 a game ahead of Houston, two teams, who, honestly, I don't think really have much of a chance. Should the season end with no change to the standings, the Spurs would be playing Portland for the first round and the winner of Denver/Utah (I pick Utah) in the second. Let me just say, those are two tough matchups. My personal hope is that Utah jumps to 5 to play Houston so then Lakers would have to go through them first before matching up with the Spurs (assuming both advance to the Western Conference Finals). Hope. Yeah.
So from a purely basketball standpoint, what do Spurs need? Well, firstly, the obvious answer is they need to be healthy. They need to be back 100%, full speed. The most noteable players they need to be certain are healthy are Manu Ginobili and Drew Gooden. Of course, they have to keep Tony Parker and Tim Duncan healthy for the remainder of the season too. One of the primary reasons I say this is because the Rockets and Nuggets are such good regular season teams, that I don't see them falling to a spot where the Spurs will play them (though maybe the Spurs might fall to a spot where they'll play them given their last two games). While I don't anticipate the Rockets or Nuggets making a whole lot of noise in the postseason (read: 1st round exit) I think they can stay in the top 4 spots and retain homecourt advantage. Additionally, I don't see Dallas gaining any ground to play anyone besides the Lakers, but that all could change, still, I think it's pretty unlikely. That means that the Spurs have to hit the playoffs running, because their first matchup is likely to be pretty challenging from the getgo, Portland, New Orleans, and Utah are the choices, and I'd really rather not have to face any of them in a playoff series. Manu is slowly working his way back, but he's not quite 100% yet, hopefully he makes a full recovery by playoffs.
If everyone is healthy, then we have to have Tony Parker continue to have a career season into the offseason. Next, Tim Duncan has to be, well, Tim Duncan. The big questionmarks then kind of fall to the role players. I know this all sounds kind of obvious, in the effect of saying "all the Spurs players just need to play well" but there does have to be some level of consistent production from Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, Drew Gooden, Kurt Thomas, and Roger Mason Jr in order for the Spurs to have a chance. While the core of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is a formidable offense (if healthy), you can't really bank on them wresting control of the game and pulling the team out of the fire as regularly or reliably as say Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, or even Paul Pierce. Parker has done it a couple of times, and it might save the Spurs in a couple of close ones, but it's not something to bank on. I think Bonner, Mason, and Bowen (and Udoka I guess) all know their role in the system, so I think the biggest x-factor here is going to be Drew Gooden. If Drew Gooden can play smart and work efficiently (i.e. not jack up flat-footed wing jumpers) then the Spurs are in good shape. What they need Gooden to do, is to grab rebounds (especially offensive ones) and get his points off those putbacks, and also to be able to keep his head on defense, which he's not known for doing, but still, a little effort wouldn't hurt.
Finally, I think Popovich needs to figure out his rotations. How to most effectively use his players.
MAKE MANU THE SUPER SIXTH MAN AGAIN
Firstly, I'm in agreement with most people that Manu should come off the bench. What this does is give the bench a lot of firepower and instant offense. I think that the most effective starting 5 for the Spurs thusfar this season has been Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, Duncan. It works, assuming (a fairly large if I guess) Mason, Finley, and Bonner can hit their open shots. Graydon a solid Spurs blogger makes a note of this in regards to the previous Spurs loss to OKC, well, not specifically in regards to the lineup but in regards to how Pop needs to work his rotations, there are other posts on it at Graydon (and co)'s blog. I know the subs aren't going to get tons of time come playoffs, but hey, the starters also need their rest, but I'd much rather see Hill, Ginobili, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas off than Vaughn, Mason, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas.
PLAY LESS MICHAEL FINLEY
One thing about this season I think that Pop has gone with is more firepower at the expense of some defense, which, I believe, given this roster is understandable. However, I don't know if that really dictates playing Michael Finley 30+ minutes per game. Right now, Finley's role is to hit open threes, which I believe given the minutes, either Udoka or Bowen can do effectively. So the second thing with the rotation is to limit Finley's minutes. I think those extra stops that Bowen/Udoka come up with will ultimately be more important, especially late game than the extra shots that Finley gets, especially when Finley isn't shooting well (in the last two losses Finley, while averaging 13 points has been shooting 10-28, that's 35.7%, ugh). In previous years, there was a lot of help from the middle from Duncan and one of Fransisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto, or Kurt Thomas, however, now with Bonner inserted as a key role in the lineup, I don't know that they can really afford to have another defensive liability on the floor.
PLAY MORE GEORGE HILL
Ok, so Hill might not be as great of a shooter as say Finley or Mason, but the idea is like that of playing less Finley and more Bowen/Udoka, the stops will be more important than the shots. One item of note that I found from the box score of the OKC game was really the rotation. I mean really, why is Jacque Vaughn playing 13+ minutes while George Hill gets a DNP? I know he's a rookie and inexperienced and all that, but isn't the last few games of the season a great time to get him that experience? While Vaughn knows how to make the offense go, he's really not much good on either end of the floor. Especially if Ginobili is the 6th man, I think that Hill wouldn't need to facilitate as much, since Ginobili will be there with him. This also moves Mason, who's not a great facilitator back to being the SG instead of the backup PG. I understand that Pop might want Mason on the floor, without getting considerably smaller (playing Mason at 2). While end-game situations might get iffy if Mason stays an SG since you might have to play Manu as a SF, I don't think that'll be as bad as more floor time for Michael Finley or something. I think he'll be crucial defensively especially as playoffs include the prospects of matching up against Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams.
I was discussing this with a friend (a Lakers fan) and while I think that a healthy Spurs outfit could sneak a 7 game series from the Lakers, there's one thing I failed to consider: David Stern hates the Spurs. That, I suppose is another uphill battle that the Spurs have to face, but at this point, it's all conspiracy theories. So these are what I think it will take for the Spurs to win. I believe that should everyone figure out the system and Pop sticks with a rotation that works, then Spurs have as good of a shot as anyone. Plus, it's an odd year.
Again Pop, here's my recommended rotation:
PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason Jr, Manu Ginobili
SF - Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka
PF - Matt Bonner, Drew Gooden
C - Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas
Don't play anyone else, though, I suppose you could stick Fab in there somewhere if he gets healthy again.
Friday, March 27, 2009
What will it take?: Cleveland Cavaliers
I know, I know, I'm pretty long overdue with this post. I was hoping to get some of the more prominent names in the blogosphere involved, but alas, I don't really know anyone in the Cavs blogosphere, as I don't really follow the Cavs outside of the plethora of LeBron news that assaults my reader daily. So I guess that means I'm stuck doing my own analysis. Shucks. I'm sure that's what some of you are thinking.
Anyways, the Cavs have had a pretty strong showing ever since LeBron has been on the team, because well, LeBron is LeBron. The Cavs have made the playoffs for since the 2005-2006 season, and it's largely been on the shoulders of LeBron James, especially since Cleveland got shafted by Carlos Boozer in the 2004 free agency. Regardless, with a supporting cast featuring the likes of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Sasha Pavlovic, Eric Snow, Larry Hughes, and the like, LeBron carried the Cavs into the playoffs (albeit in a weaker Eastern Conference), and even as far as the NBA Finals past the Detroit Pistons in 2007, only to be swept by the San Antonio Spurs. I'm sure you're all familiar with the history so I'll try to fast-forward to today.
Basically, everyone (including Mike Brown) realized that the Cavs, while a strong defensive team, desperately needed offense outside of LeBron James. LeBron just wasn't the Allen Iverson type that dominated the ball, and honestly, good defensive teams were able to stop the Cavs' offense by simply bottlenecking the point of origin, LeBron, and since he was the only point of origin, it worked. During the past offseason, the Cavs realized this and made a three-way move sending Joe Smith to Oklahoma City, who in turn sent Luke Ridnour to Milwaukee, who subsequently handed Mo Williams over to Cleveland (and Desmond Mason to OKC). At that juncture, Mo Williams was the second most reliable scorer on the Bucks behind Michael Redd, but the emergence of Ramon Sessions had rendered Williams somewhat expendable. Williams was averaging 17.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists during his last season as a Buck.
What Williams added, was a player who could create his own shot, someone who didn't have to rely on LeBron to make offense, i.e. a second point of offensive origin. Currently, Mo Williams, is doing his Mo Williams thing, just on a better team (17.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists). It's definitely improved the Cavs significantly, as it has made their offense flow better, that and the fact that Mike Brown has developed an offense outside of "pass LeBron the ball at the top of the key". However, despite having the best record in the league (58-13), there is still no guarantee that the Cavs will win a title or even make it to the Finals. They still have to fight through an improved Eastern Conference playoff bracket and then take out whoever the West throws out at them. If they do make it to the Finals again, it won't be the trouncing they received 2 years ago, but again, it's not a given that they'll take it either.
So what's it gonna take? Well, ideally I would've said another scoring option, because to me honestly, I don't think that Mo Williams is a very good second option (I think Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a crappier third option), not that he's a bad player, but I think if you had another player who could score, maybe on the low block or something, they'd be more effective. However, that essentially fell through with the lack of a trade come the deadline. Mo Williams will have big shooting nights, but not consistently as say like Ray Allen, so what's going to have to happen, is that the role players are going to have to step it up.
One of the Cavs biggest weaknesses is offense in the low post, if you look at their front court, you have some pairing of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joe Smith, Anderson Varejao, and JJ Hickson. Let's assume that they get Ben Wallace back healthy, because I think they're going to need him come playoff time, so throw him into the mix too (Lorenzen Wright does not count). While Big Z is consistent, he's not a guy that can really score at will, and really makes a living off of open face up 12 footers than anything else.
Production-wise JJ Hickson and Joe Smith are virtually identical on a per 36 minute basis. The primary difference being that JJ Hickson coughs up the ball a lot more than Smith. While they're both solid, they, and Big Z, are by no means extraordinary offensive threats in the low block. I haven't seen much of Hickson play, but I'd imagine that he's not great or that his IQ isn't as high as Cavs might like if Brown is leery of playing him as a rookie in the post season and therefore is going with tried and true Joe Smith and his veteran exerpience. If we look at Varejao and Wallace, while Varejao isn't completely useless on offense, like Ben Wallace is, they're both more of an impact on the defensive end, which means they are even less of a scoring option than Big Z, Hickson, and Smith.
The offense then has to come from the shooters. Mo Williams, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, and Wally Sczerbiak have to keep up their solid shooting from this season in order to carry the team over the top. LeBron is going to find them, but they need to be able to make the shots that they get, and do so consistently, which I suppose is the case for most teams. However, I emphasize this for the Cavs simply because there really just aren't that many weapons to rely on, while Williams was certainly an upgrade (from Larry Hughes and Eric Snow), I don't know that it's necessarily enough to carry them over in 7 games straight, especially since they are a little weak in the low post (see Dallas Mavericks from 2005-2007). My focus in terms of offensive production I think really has to be Delonte West, who's definitely stepped it up for the brunt of the season, but really has to maintain that high level of play for the Cavs to win it all.
While the Cavs have always been a good defensive team, they can't really take all that for granted. With Ben Wallace down, the team really suffers defensively on the block, as Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are by no means stoppers. Joe Smith may know the system and is probably pretty good with the help, but honestly, we can't forget that he was criticized so much last season for his inability to guard Kevin Garnett in the playoffs. Joe Smith is not a young guy, and so his defense isn't really going to get better. They have to really help a lot on the defense with teams that play physical like Boston and Atlanta (and Orlando I guess), while I don't know that they'll win a lot of the frontcourt battles, they can't afford to be beat too much by the opposing bigs.
Of course the big assumption is that LeBron will be enough to tide this better team over. I think that in this off season if they can acquire a major piece, say a solid PF scorer or maybe another explosive swingman then they'd be solid. With what they have now, LeBron will have to continue to be pretty darn amazing, and everyone else is going to have to step it up.
Anyways, the Cavs have had a pretty strong showing ever since LeBron has been on the team, because well, LeBron is LeBron. The Cavs have made the playoffs for since the 2005-2006 season, and it's largely been on the shoulders of LeBron James, especially since Cleveland got shafted by Carlos Boozer in the 2004 free agency. Regardless, with a supporting cast featuring the likes of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Sasha Pavlovic, Eric Snow, Larry Hughes, and the like, LeBron carried the Cavs into the playoffs (albeit in a weaker Eastern Conference), and even as far as the NBA Finals past the Detroit Pistons in 2007, only to be swept by the San Antonio Spurs. I'm sure you're all familiar with the history so I'll try to fast-forward to today.
Basically, everyone (including Mike Brown) realized that the Cavs, while a strong defensive team, desperately needed offense outside of LeBron James. LeBron just wasn't the Allen Iverson type that dominated the ball, and honestly, good defensive teams were able to stop the Cavs' offense by simply bottlenecking the point of origin, LeBron, and since he was the only point of origin, it worked. During the past offseason, the Cavs realized this and made a three-way move sending Joe Smith to Oklahoma City, who in turn sent Luke Ridnour to Milwaukee, who subsequently handed Mo Williams over to Cleveland (and Desmond Mason to OKC). At that juncture, Mo Williams was the second most reliable scorer on the Bucks behind Michael Redd, but the emergence of Ramon Sessions had rendered Williams somewhat expendable. Williams was averaging 17.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists during his last season as a Buck.
What Williams added, was a player who could create his own shot, someone who didn't have to rely on LeBron to make offense, i.e. a second point of offensive origin. Currently, Mo Williams, is doing his Mo Williams thing, just on a better team (17.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists). It's definitely improved the Cavs significantly, as it has made their offense flow better, that and the fact that Mike Brown has developed an offense outside of "pass LeBron the ball at the top of the key". However, despite having the best record in the league (58-13), there is still no guarantee that the Cavs will win a title or even make it to the Finals. They still have to fight through an improved Eastern Conference playoff bracket and then take out whoever the West throws out at them. If they do make it to the Finals again, it won't be the trouncing they received 2 years ago, but again, it's not a given that they'll take it either.
So what's it gonna take? Well, ideally I would've said another scoring option, because to me honestly, I don't think that Mo Williams is a very good second option (I think Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a crappier third option), not that he's a bad player, but I think if you had another player who could score, maybe on the low block or something, they'd be more effective. However, that essentially fell through with the lack of a trade come the deadline. Mo Williams will have big shooting nights, but not consistently as say like Ray Allen, so what's going to have to happen, is that the role players are going to have to step it up.
One of the Cavs biggest weaknesses is offense in the low post, if you look at their front court, you have some pairing of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joe Smith, Anderson Varejao, and JJ Hickson. Let's assume that they get Ben Wallace back healthy, because I think they're going to need him come playoff time, so throw him into the mix too (Lorenzen Wright does not count). While Big Z is consistent, he's not a guy that can really score at will, and really makes a living off of open face up 12 footers than anything else.
Production-wise JJ Hickson and Joe Smith are virtually identical on a per 36 minute basis. The primary difference being that JJ Hickson coughs up the ball a lot more than Smith. While they're both solid, they, and Big Z, are by no means extraordinary offensive threats in the low block. I haven't seen much of Hickson play, but I'd imagine that he's not great or that his IQ isn't as high as Cavs might like if Brown is leery of playing him as a rookie in the post season and therefore is going with tried and true Joe Smith and his veteran exerpience. If we look at Varejao and Wallace, while Varejao isn't completely useless on offense, like Ben Wallace is, they're both more of an impact on the defensive end, which means they are even less of a scoring option than Big Z, Hickson, and Smith.
The offense then has to come from the shooters. Mo Williams, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, and Wally Sczerbiak have to keep up their solid shooting from this season in order to carry the team over the top. LeBron is going to find them, but they need to be able to make the shots that they get, and do so consistently, which I suppose is the case for most teams. However, I emphasize this for the Cavs simply because there really just aren't that many weapons to rely on, while Williams was certainly an upgrade (from Larry Hughes and Eric Snow), I don't know that it's necessarily enough to carry them over in 7 games straight, especially since they are a little weak in the low post (see Dallas Mavericks from 2005-2007). My focus in terms of offensive production I think really has to be Delonte West, who's definitely stepped it up for the brunt of the season, but really has to maintain that high level of play for the Cavs to win it all.
While the Cavs have always been a good defensive team, they can't really take all that for granted. With Ben Wallace down, the team really suffers defensively on the block, as Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are by no means stoppers. Joe Smith may know the system and is probably pretty good with the help, but honestly, we can't forget that he was criticized so much last season for his inability to guard Kevin Garnett in the playoffs. Joe Smith is not a young guy, and so his defense isn't really going to get better. They have to really help a lot on the defense with teams that play physical like Boston and Atlanta (and Orlando I guess), while I don't know that they'll win a lot of the frontcourt battles, they can't afford to be beat too much by the opposing bigs.
Of course the big assumption is that LeBron will be enough to tide this better team over. I think that in this off season if they can acquire a major piece, say a solid PF scorer or maybe another explosive swingman then they'd be solid. With what they have now, LeBron will have to continue to be pretty darn amazing, and everyone else is going to have to step it up.
Monday, March 9, 2009
What will it take?: LA Lakers
I was considering doing a piece on how Shaq needs to learn how to shut his mouth, but there's already a lot of literature out there on that (ok maybe not "literature, but there's a bit of writing on it). Then, I thought about maybe talking about how Celtics defense maybe isn't so much stifling as it is dirty. So I decided, to move forward with a post that I've been meaning to get to for a while, that is, a closer look at all the different contenders in the league, which I boiled down to 2 per conference with a "dark horse" type team thrown in for kicks. I've tried to get some external input on this as well, so here goes:
The Lakers are currently the best team in the league, at least record-wise. A lot of people are gearing for a rematch of last year's finals showdown (Boston and LA). Kenny Smith continually talks about how the Lakers are the only team to improve their roster from last season (it's on one of the Inside the NBA episodes, don't remember which one) significantly. I can agree with his analysis that having Gasol for a whole year and having a healthy Ariza, even without Bynum again, the Lakers are improved, yes. While the other teams in the West haven't made a significant move, but it's hard to say that other teams haven't "improved" either. I'm not going to get into that though.
Last season, the Lakers had a solid run through the Western Conference, starting with a sweep of Denver in the first round, a fairly even 6 game matchup against Utah, and then a convincing 5 game rout of San Antonio (despite some controversy). I'm sure they're looking for another run again this season, but this time, hopefully overcome the Eastern Conference team that they face. After losing to Boston in 5 games in last year's Finals, the Lakers were accused of being soft, unable to bang with the more physical Boston frontline of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. Maybe that was the case, and they hoped that the return of Bynum would add some physicality to their game, which it did, until he got hurt, again.
One thing that the Lakers have definitely established thusfar this season is that they play very good team basketball, be it on the offensive end or defensive end. Phil Jackson's triangle offense emphasizes a lot of ball movement and when it's clicking, it's nigh impossible to stop. The offense has always been there, the defense however, is what the Lakers need. Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold says:
Of course, while it's certain that the Lakers will likely clinch the top spot in the Western Conference, a good regular season record isn't really indicative of post season success. However, this Lakers team does look a lot more balanced than the 2007 Dallas Mavericks did. Granted there's a little luck involved, what with the matchups, but the first round looks like it'll be against a floundering Dallas Mavericks, which I think the Lakers should take easily. However, they really can't let that get to them. For the Lakers, the talent is all there, I'm sure having been so close to winning the Larry O'Brien trophy, the desire should be too, I think the main thing is for them to focus on each game in front of them as each series progresses. If the 2007 Golden State Warriors taught us anything, it's that you can't really take anyone for granted in a 7-game playoff series. Certainly it would help if there was an upset here or there, however, and none of the teams ranked 2-7 in the West will be an easy out, since they all deserve to be there.
I think the most serious threats though that the Lakers will face would be Utah Jazz and the San Antonio Spurs. I feel like Denver, Houston, and New Orleans will falter when it switches over from one-and-done regular season games to the grueling 7-game matchups against such high caliber teams. Portland honestly, just hasn't really been there, so while that might be held against them, they are something of an x-factor. Nonetheless, I think the Blazers still have some growing so experience wins out in the end. In terms of favorable matchups, despite having homecourt advantage, the Lakers would really want the Jazz to beat out the Rockets for the 3rd place spot, so that San Antonio and Utah would play each other before facing the Lakers, instead of the Lakers running the possibility of having to play both of them (again) in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
I personally don't think there's a team that's invulnerable to defeat, and I think the other contenders in the West have as equal a chance as the Eastern contenders to keep the Lakers from winning that championship. That being said, I think it's equally likely that the Lakers could win it all this season. There are still a number of games left in the season, and too many unknowns both in LA and on the other squads for anyone to say for sure.
Finally, I think for the Lakers taking home a championship banner, is beyond Kobe doing his Kobe thing, the rest of the players need to step it up. The entire Lakers team needs to be playing at that higher level and not have to fall back on Kobe shooting them out of holes. That means that the "gel" guys, I think namely Lamar Odom, have to be able to pick it up when their number is called. Kobe's going to get a ton of defensive attention, and to a lesser extent Gasol, which means that the reserve roles have to be willing to take big shots. Fisher doesn't have that problem, but my concern would be more for Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, and the like. While the reserves usually don't get as much burn with starters willing to play more minutes, progressive fatigue can still catch up, especially if series start dragging on to 6-7 games, so the role players really have to go out and get their own on the floor.
That was pretty dense so let me bullet point what I think the Lakers need for success, adding on a few peripheral notes while I'm at it:
The Lakers are currently the best team in the league, at least record-wise. A lot of people are gearing for a rematch of last year's finals showdown (Boston and LA). Kenny Smith continually talks about how the Lakers are the only team to improve their roster from last season (it's on one of the Inside the NBA episodes, don't remember which one) significantly. I can agree with his analysis that having Gasol for a whole year and having a healthy Ariza, even without Bynum again, the Lakers are improved, yes. While the other teams in the West haven't made a significant move, but it's hard to say that other teams haven't "improved" either. I'm not going to get into that though.
Last season, the Lakers had a solid run through the Western Conference, starting with a sweep of Denver in the first round, a fairly even 6 game matchup against Utah, and then a convincing 5 game rout of San Antonio (despite some controversy). I'm sure they're looking for another run again this season, but this time, hopefully overcome the Eastern Conference team that they face. After losing to Boston in 5 games in last year's Finals, the Lakers were accused of being soft, unable to bang with the more physical Boston frontline of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. Maybe that was the case, and they hoped that the return of Bynum would add some physicality to their game, which it did, until he got hurt, again.
One thing that the Lakers have definitely established thusfar this season is that they play very good team basketball, be it on the offensive end or defensive end. Phil Jackson's triangle offense emphasizes a lot of ball movement and when it's clicking, it's nigh impossible to stop. The offense has always been there, the defense however, is what the Lakers need. Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold says:
"When the Lakers have wanted to, they have been a very good defensive team this season, playing a much more aggressive style in the sense that there is a lot of help from bigs to keep guys from driving into the lane and getting easy buckets (think Paul Pierce in the Finals last year). The Lakers are going to make teams beat them from the outside, not in the paint. The Lakers played that system well early in the season, but since their focus and commitment on the defensive end has been spotty. It can't be in the playoffs, especially the later rounds. I think you'll see the last few weeks of the season that playing more focused defense will be something the coaching staff and players will talk a lot about."It kind of goes without saying that one of the first priorities for the Lakers is to get Bynum back for the post-season, to get him back healthy, because the main culprits of the Lakers' interior softness would be their current frontcourt tandem of Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Should Bynum get back healthy, it provides a solid interior presence that the Lakers desperately needed against more physical bigs. One thing Kenny Smith notes in his preview of this Thursday's Lakers/Spurs matchup is that the Lakers have a really hard time guarding Tim Duncan. If you notice from the highlights, a lot of times it's just Duncan scoring over Lamar Odom, who isn't a great post defender. Bynum gives that big body that can press against Duncan and force him out of the paint, that doesn't completely nullify Duncan, but it does make his shots more difficult. Additionally, while Derek Fisher is a smart defender, he's also an aging player, he's not quite as fast as he once was, and so guards like Tony Parker usually have their way with him, the damage done by those kind of slashing guards is mitigated significantly with an interior help presence of someone like Andrew Bynum. Again, Kurt addresses this issue:
"They need Andrew Bynum back, not for any scoring but for the way he protects the paint on defense and grabs rebounds. Bynum also provides depth — right now the Lakers second unit is struggling because it cannot generate offense outside the fast break. So Odom or Gasol have to stay in with them, racking up a lot of minutes, to provide a good scoring option in the half court. Bynum's return will mean more regular minutes for everyone (Bynum may come off the bench, at least at first). In the playoffs, the depth matters less because the key players can and will take on more minutes, but the Lakers need that depth because it gives Phil Jackson more matchup options in the playoffs. It allows him to go big or small, to do a number of things that will frustrate opponents."
Of course, while it's certain that the Lakers will likely clinch the top spot in the Western Conference, a good regular season record isn't really indicative of post season success. However, this Lakers team does look a lot more balanced than the 2007 Dallas Mavericks did. Granted there's a little luck involved, what with the matchups, but the first round looks like it'll be against a floundering Dallas Mavericks, which I think the Lakers should take easily. However, they really can't let that get to them. For the Lakers, the talent is all there, I'm sure having been so close to winning the Larry O'Brien trophy, the desire should be too, I think the main thing is for them to focus on each game in front of them as each series progresses. If the 2007 Golden State Warriors taught us anything, it's that you can't really take anyone for granted in a 7-game playoff series. Certainly it would help if there was an upset here or there, however, and none of the teams ranked 2-7 in the West will be an easy out, since they all deserve to be there.
I think the most serious threats though that the Lakers will face would be Utah Jazz and the San Antonio Spurs. I feel like Denver, Houston, and New Orleans will falter when it switches over from one-and-done regular season games to the grueling 7-game matchups against such high caliber teams. Portland honestly, just hasn't really been there, so while that might be held against them, they are something of an x-factor. Nonetheless, I think the Blazers still have some growing so experience wins out in the end. In terms of favorable matchups, despite having homecourt advantage, the Lakers would really want the Jazz to beat out the Rockets for the 3rd place spot, so that San Antonio and Utah would play each other before facing the Lakers, instead of the Lakers running the possibility of having to play both of them (again) in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
I personally don't think there's a team that's invulnerable to defeat, and I think the other contenders in the West have as equal a chance as the Eastern contenders to keep the Lakers from winning that championship. That being said, I think it's equally likely that the Lakers could win it all this season. There are still a number of games left in the season, and too many unknowns both in LA and on the other squads for anyone to say for sure.
Finally, I think for the Lakers taking home a championship banner, is beyond Kobe doing his Kobe thing, the rest of the players need to step it up. The entire Lakers team needs to be playing at that higher level and not have to fall back on Kobe shooting them out of holes. That means that the "gel" guys, I think namely Lamar Odom, have to be able to pick it up when their number is called. Kobe's going to get a ton of defensive attention, and to a lesser extent Gasol, which means that the reserve roles have to be willing to take big shots. Fisher doesn't have that problem, but my concern would be more for Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, and the like. While the reserves usually don't get as much burn with starters willing to play more minutes, progressive fatigue can still catch up, especially if series start dragging on to 6-7 games, so the role players really have to go out and get their own on the floor.
That was pretty dense so let me bullet point what I think the Lakers need for success, adding on a few peripheral notes while I'm at it:
- A healthy Bynum to return for the post season
- Focus on the defensive end, especially in the paint
- Kobe being Kobe
- Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom not being fatigued by too many minutes with Bynum out
- Odom and Luke Walton have to step it up
- Keep running the triangle
Friday, March 6, 2009
On the Bubble: Western Conference
So the NBA regular season is winding down, and we're all getting a clearer picture of who will end up in the playoff picture, or rather, I like to think of it more as, who ends up not in the playoff picture, as 16 of 30 teams make it and only 14 teams go to the lottery. However, that aside, the playoffs are probably the most exciting time of the season, and it's the thing that most die-hard fans are really looking forward to. Of course, in the last few weeks leading up to the playoffs we have all these teams kind of on the bubble, everyone wonders, who's going to be that 8th seed and who's going to be that 14th team in the lottery (9th)? In the Western Conference, it's come down to a two team race for the 8th spot, though it's getting clearer who's going to fall out. We're pretty sure that the Lakers and Spurs have locked up the 1 and 2 spots in the Western Conference, and we're pretty sure that the Nuggets, Blazers, Hornets, Jazz, and Rockets have the 3-7 slots taken up, we're just not sure who's in which one (currently Nuggets, Hornets, Rockets, Jazz, Blazers). So the fight for that not-so-coveted 8th spot goes to Dallas or Phoenix.
I'm gonna take a quick look at each team and what they have and how likely they are to win that spot to get trounced by the Lakers in the first round, or perhaps be that Cinderella 8th spot like the 2007 Golden State Warriors.
Dallas Mavericks 37-25 8th in Western Conference 4th in Southwest Division
From what we can see initially, outside of Dirk Nowtizki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and maybe Jason Kidd, we're not really getting any significant production, anywhere really. If you watch Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, and Charles Barkley on Inside the NBA on TNT you'll hear EJ mention an interesting quote from Jason Terry saying, "Erick Dampier makes the Mavericks go." Which is understandable, because if Erick Dampier "turns it on" then the Mavs are good. I believe what the Mavs are lacking though is an interior presence, Dirk Nowtizki, for being 7 feet tall, plays like he's 6-3. Sure he gets rebounds, but in essence the Mavs are what the Magic would be without Dwight Howard. Maybe it's not fair to Erick Dampier to ask him to be a Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan, but they need some kind of a legitimate post/defensive presence in the middle. I know that the talk has been about these opposing PGs lighting up the Mavericks:
This is just a short list of players that have overperformed whenever they're playing the Mavs, that is, they average higher averages against the Mavs than they do across the regular season (aka against other teams). People will look at this and first point fingers at Jason Kidd, who, being 35 and a step slower than he used to be, can't be as effective defensively. Most people will call him a defensive liability, which, may or may not be true. In the case of Dallas though, I don't know that you can lay the whole blame on the shoulders of Kidd. If you look at the list of PGs that do so well against Dallas, all of them thrive by getting into the lane, and honestly, none of them are really afraid of Erick Dampier. Jason Kidd ends up looking bad, because he has no one to funnel his man to, he can't trust Erick Dampier with the weak side help. Playing Dirk Nowtizki on the floor is basically playing a rebounding 3 on the floor.
Don't get me wrong, Dirk averaging 25 points and 8 rebounds per contest is great, those are actually quite phenomenal stats, but they're closer to what you want out of say Carmelo Anthony rather than Carlos Boozer, and honestly, you need Dirk to play more like Carlos Boozer. I've been saying this since they were ousted from the first round by Golden State in the 2007 playoffs, they're a shooting team with no interior presence. They got the shooters, they don't have the inside. If we compare Dampier to the average center of the Eastern Conference 8th spots:
You'll notice that Dampier, a 13 year vet, across the board, is being out performed, and he's the primary option. Behind him, you have the even worse Ryan Hollins. Honestly, the future in the playoffs doesn't really look very bright for Dallas, and after this year, Jason Kidd leaves, and I honestly don't know that Dallas would re-sign him as it didn't work out. If you notice, while Kidd has tallied off a little, he's not performing significantly worse than we'd expected, it's all the role players that are hurting Dallas. When Devean George gets serious burn off the bench and only averages 3.5 points and 1.9 rebounds per game, you know your role players aren't producing. Sure, they should be better, but honestly, I'm not too surprised by the fact that they aren't.
Phoenix Suns 34-27 9th in Western Conference 2nd in Pacific Division
The Phoenix Suns are only 2nd in the Pacific because all the other teams in the Pacific suck that much (Sacramento Kings, LA Clippers, and Golden State Warriors). Seriously.
Seriously, the only reason Mavericks are going to get into the playoffs are because this Phoenix team is worse. Losing Amar'e Stoudemire for the rest of the season hurts, losing him for the post season as well is devastating. As hard as it would have been for them to make it to the post season, without Amar'e, it kind of makes the post season not worth going to. They had a slim chance against the Lakers should they have slipped in the 8th seed, but without Amar'e they have no chance whatsoever. Despite Alvin Gentry trying to move the Suns back into their old run-and-gun form, they're just not clicking, too many new things to integrate. Shaq may be having the last hurrah of his career, but it'll be pretty disappointing should the Suns drop out of the playoffs.
Honestly, this team just hasn't found an identity, it's a random conglomeration of parts that looks good on paper but really isn't very cohesive. You have a dominant half-court oriented center who demands touches (Shaq), you have an explosive off guard that shoots threes and demands touches in isolation (Jason Richardson), you have an aging point guard and reserve off guard who thrive running the open floor (Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa), you have a couple of role players (Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, and Jared Dudley), and you have a bunch of clueless rookies (Robin Lopez and Goran Dragic). Signing Stromile Swift in the free agency was too little too late. Honestly they're back two games and I don't think they can catch up. Neither Phoenix nor Dallas are very good teams right now, and it's hard to believe that they've fallen this far, but if you just look at the roster and what is brought night in and night out, there just isn't enough to compete with the other 8 teams ahead of them. Nash (34), Hill (36), and O'Neal (37) are at the end of their careers, and there are no youth to take the reins (Amar'e has shown he's a better support player), so inevitably there is this monstrous dropoff. Without Amar'e, they're a lot worse than their record, like, Charlotte Bobcats worse.
I'm gonna take a quick look at each team and what they have and how likely they are to win that spot to get trounced by the Lakers in the first round, or perhaps be that Cinderella 8th spot like the 2007 Golden State Warriors.
Dallas Mavericks 37-25 8th in Western Conference 4th in Southwest Division
| Starters | MPG | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| PG - Jason Kidd | 35:30 | 43.3% | 40.5% | 9.2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| SG - Antoine Wright | 21:41 | 41.6% | 81.3% | 7.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| SF - Josh Howard | 32:42 | 45.8% | 75.3% | 18.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| PF - Dirk Nowitzki | 37:42 | 47.3% | 90.4% | 25.2 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| C - Erick Dampier | 22:41 | 66.3% | 63.4% | 5.4 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Reserves | MPG | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| G - Jason Terry | 33:30 | 46.4% | 88.0% | 19.7 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| G - Jose Juan Barea | 19:11 | 42.6% | 69.0% | 7.3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| F - Brandon Bass | 19:36 | 48.6% | 86.8% | 8.5 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| F - James Singleton | 13:11 | 54.6% | 87.5% | 4.6 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| F - Gerald Green | 10:30 | 43.6% | 82.6% | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| C - Ryan Hollins | 7:35 | 52.6% | 61.2% | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| F - Devean George | 16:41 | 37.8% | 77.8% | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
From what we can see initially, outside of Dirk Nowtizki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and maybe Jason Kidd, we're not really getting any significant production, anywhere really. If you watch Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, and Charles Barkley on Inside the NBA on TNT you'll hear EJ mention an interesting quote from Jason Terry saying, "Erick Dampier makes the Mavericks go." Which is understandable, because if Erick Dampier "turns it on" then the Mavs are good. I believe what the Mavs are lacking though is an interior presence, Dirk Nowtizki, for being 7 feet tall, plays like he's 6-3. Sure he gets rebounds, but in essence the Mavs are what the Magic would be without Dwight Howard. Maybe it's not fair to Erick Dampier to ask him to be a Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan, but they need some kind of a legitimate post/defensive presence in the middle. I know that the talk has been about these opposing PGs lighting up the Mavericks:
| PGs Against Mavs | GP | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| Tony Parker | 4 | 51.6% | 82.1% | 31.3 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| Chris Paul | 2 | 52.4% | 83.3% | 30.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Devin Harris | 2 | 44.2% | 88.9% | 29.5 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| Deron Williams | 3 | 47.2% | 92.0% | 27.0 | 3.7 | 11.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 |
| Russell Westbrook | 3 | 37.5% | 94.7% | 23.0 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 4.3 |
| Derrick Rose | 2 | 42.9% | 50.0% | 19.0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Baron Davis | 3 | 40.0% | 77.8% | 18.0 | 3.3 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Rajon Rondo | 2 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 16.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
This is just a short list of players that have overperformed whenever they're playing the Mavs, that is, they average higher averages against the Mavs than they do across the regular season (aka against other teams). People will look at this and first point fingers at Jason Kidd, who, being 35 and a step slower than he used to be, can't be as effective defensively. Most people will call him a defensive liability, which, may or may not be true. In the case of Dallas though, I don't know that you can lay the whole blame on the shoulders of Kidd. If you look at the list of PGs that do so well against Dallas, all of them thrive by getting into the lane, and honestly, none of them are really afraid of Erick Dampier. Jason Kidd ends up looking bad, because he has no one to funnel his man to, he can't trust Erick Dampier with the weak side help. Playing Dirk Nowtizki on the floor is basically playing a rebounding 3 on the floor.
Don't get me wrong, Dirk averaging 25 points and 8 rebounds per contest is great, those are actually quite phenomenal stats, but they're closer to what you want out of say Carmelo Anthony rather than Carlos Boozer, and honestly, you need Dirk to play more like Carlos Boozer. I've been saying this since they were ousted from the first round by Golden State in the 2007 playoffs, they're a shooting team with no interior presence. They got the shooters, they don't have the inside. If we compare Dampier to the average center of the Eastern Conference 8th spots:
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erick Dampier | 2008-09 | 33 | 62 | 62 | 1413 | 3.5 | 5.2 | .660 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1.6 | 2.5 | .639 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 8.5 |
| 2 | Roy Hibbert | 2008-09 | 22 | 53 | 26 | 679 | 7.3 | 14.6 | .498 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3.1 | 4.8 | .644 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 17.6 |
| 3 | Brook Lopez | 2008-09 | 20 | 61 | 54 | 1840 | 6.4 | 12.3 | .521 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .000 | 2.2 | 2.7 | .819 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 15.0 |
| 4 | Joakim Noah | 2008-09 | 23 | 60 | 35 | 1352 | 3.6 | 6.8 | .533 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .000 | 2.2 | 3.5 | .634 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 11.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 9.5 |
You'll notice that Dampier, a 13 year vet, across the board, is being out performed, and he's the primary option. Behind him, you have the even worse Ryan Hollins. Honestly, the future in the playoffs doesn't really look very bright for Dallas, and after this year, Jason Kidd leaves, and I honestly don't know that Dallas would re-sign him as it didn't work out. If you notice, while Kidd has tallied off a little, he's not performing significantly worse than we'd expected, it's all the role players that are hurting Dallas. When Devean George gets serious burn off the bench and only averages 3.5 points and 1.9 rebounds per game, you know your role players aren't producing. Sure, they should be better, but honestly, I'm not too surprised by the fact that they aren't.
Phoenix Suns 34-27 9th in Western Conference 2nd in Pacific Division
The Phoenix Suns are only 2nd in the Pacific because all the other teams in the Pacific suck that much (Sacramento Kings, LA Clippers, and Golden State Warriors). Seriously.
| Starters | MPG | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| PG - Steve Nash | 33:36 | 48.4% | 94.2% | 14.5 | 3.2 | 9.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.7 |
| SG - Matt Barnes | 26:00 | 41.9% | 74.1% | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| SF - Jason Richardson | 34:47 | 47.3% | 76.2% | 17.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| PF - Grant Hill | 28:48 | 51.0% | 79.3% | 10.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| C - Shaquille O'Neal | 30:23 | 60.8% | 62.6% | 18.2 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Reserves | MPG | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| G - Leandro Barbosa | 24:53 | 47.8% | 87.3% | 13.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| F - Jared Dudley | 15:05 | 46.6% | 63.9% | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| F - Louis Amundson | 12:48 | 57.0% | 47.1% | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| G - Goran Dragic | 12:35 | 35.6% | 84.1% | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| C - Robin Lopez | 9:54 | 50.0% | 59.1% | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| F - Stromile Swift | 10:41 | 60.0% | 45.5% | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| F - Alando Tucker | 10:30 | 42.2% | 83.3% | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
Seriously, the only reason Mavericks are going to get into the playoffs are because this Phoenix team is worse. Losing Amar'e Stoudemire for the rest of the season hurts, losing him for the post season as well is devastating. As hard as it would have been for them to make it to the post season, without Amar'e, it kind of makes the post season not worth going to. They had a slim chance against the Lakers should they have slipped in the 8th seed, but without Amar'e they have no chance whatsoever. Despite Alvin Gentry trying to move the Suns back into their old run-and-gun form, they're just not clicking, too many new things to integrate. Shaq may be having the last hurrah of his career, but it'll be pretty disappointing should the Suns drop out of the playoffs.
Honestly, this team just hasn't found an identity, it's a random conglomeration of parts that looks good on paper but really isn't very cohesive. You have a dominant half-court oriented center who demands touches (Shaq), you have an explosive off guard that shoots threes and demands touches in isolation (Jason Richardson), you have an aging point guard and reserve off guard who thrive running the open floor (Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa), you have a couple of role players (Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, and Jared Dudley), and you have a bunch of clueless rookies (Robin Lopez and Goran Dragic). Signing Stromile Swift in the free agency was too little too late. Honestly they're back two games and I don't think they can catch up. Neither Phoenix nor Dallas are very good teams right now, and it's hard to believe that they've fallen this far, but if you just look at the roster and what is brought night in and night out, there just isn't enough to compete with the other 8 teams ahead of them. Nash (34), Hill (36), and O'Neal (37) are at the end of their careers, and there are no youth to take the reins (Amar'e has shown he's a better support player), so inevitably there is this monstrous dropoff. Without Amar'e, they're a lot worse than their record, like, Charlotte Bobcats worse.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
