And so ends the Shawn Marion saga... in Miami...

This was recently announced.  Marion and Banks for Moon and O'Neal.  An interesting trade, that I think generally works for both sides.  Miami definitely needs a low post presence, and O'Neal provides that should he be able to stay healthy.  While O'Neal won't be the primary option, Wade probably won't take away from his (O'Neal's) game as much as someone on the low block as Bosh would.  This is interesting for Toronto because what this does is shifts the front court into looking something like Marion, Bargnani, and Bosh, not sure who'll guard who, but likely on the offense Bargnani will serve more as shooter in the wing while Marion hits the glass.  I would imagine that Calderon would help Marion, but then again, Calderon is known for being ultra-conservative on the offense, so not sure how well that'll work.  Banks is just a name that I think Miami wants to get off the roster, and as of right now, I'm sure that Toronto will take any offensive wing help they can get, which understandably is why they're getting rid of Moon too.  Moon helps defensively in the 3 slot where there already is a bit of firepower with Beasley and Wade.  Interesting to see who will start, my hunch is Moon, with Beasley as the scoring punch off the bench.  

Guess they're not going for Amar'e anymore.

More Amar'e rumors and what they mean...

Yahoo! is suggesting that Pat Riley of the Miami Heat is dead set on getting Amar'e Stoudemire.  His proposal involves getting Memphis involved in the deal.  From the looks of things, Miami would ship out Beasley (Memphis) and Marion (Phoenix), Memphis would give up Gay (Phoenix), and Phoenix would then send the troubled big man to Miami.  For those who need visuals; see Exhibit A. I threw in Dudley to make the money work, so it could as easily be another player, but Dudley is kind of the most redudant player.  The centerpieces ultimately would be the four players mentioned above.  

It's interesting that the Heat make this kind of move because it first shows how desperate they are for an interior presence, so much so that they'd be willing to give up the 2nd overall pick halfway through his rookie year.  While Beasley has been kind of underwhelming, he's been learning and growing.  Regardless, I see that since Phoenix has to throw in another player, Heat might ask for a wing player since they're stripping out both of their SFs, otherwise their 3 spot will be kind of thin.  Memphis probably just wants a change of scenery, since Gay and Mayo obviously aren't playing well together, and in Gay Phoenix gets another scoring option, though his defense has been somewhat suspect, so not sure how that works, don't think Matt Barnes will be happy with less playing time either.  However, here's how I think the rosters will pan out should this trade go through:

Miami Heat

PG - Mario Chalmers, Chris Quinn

SG - Dwayne Wade, Daequan Cook

SF - James Jones, Jared Dudley, Yakhouba Diawara

PF - Udonis Haslem, Mark Blount

C - Amar'e Stoudemire, Jamaal Magloire, Joel Anthony

Of course, Amar'e complained about playing center before, but maybe he doesn't mind anymore so long as he gets his touches. 

Memphis Grizzlies

PG - Mike Conley, Kyle Lowry

SG - OJ Mayo, Greg Buckner

SF - Michael Beasley, Quinton Ross

PF - Darrell Arthur, Hakim Warrick

C - Marc Gasol, Hamed Haddadi

Phoenix Suns

PG - Steve Nash, Leandro Barbosa, Goran Dragic

SG - Jason Richardson, Matt Barnes

SF - Rudy Gay, Grant Hill

PF - Shawn Marion, Louis Amundson

C - Shaquille O'Neal, Robin Lopez

Actually, if you look at that team, they're going to be a short team, Marion is only 6-7, though he plays like he's bigger.  Additionally, if Kerr takes over potentially for Terry Porter, as murmurs suspect on the internet, it's possible that we might see more running, which might make this lineup make a little more sense.  Kerr's original vision for the team was to keep the offense but improve the defense.

I might have to change my pick to win the ASG...

Now that Chris Bosh is no longer playing and they got, of all people Mo Williams to replace him (I personally would've gone with Antawn Jamison or Andre Iguodala or something) the matchups are going to be... interesting to say the least.  Granted it is the ASG, so no one really cares about defense, it's worth noting that outside of Dwight Howard there is no other center on the team and outside of Kevin Garnett there is no other true power forward on the team (Rashard Lewis is not a true power forward).  Sure the starters look evenly matched:

ASG Starters	EAST	WEST
Point Guard	Allen Iverson	Chris Paul
Shooting Guard	Dwayne Wade	Kobe Bryant
Small Forward	LeBron James	Amar’e Stoudemire
Power Forward	Kevin Garnett	Tim Duncan
Center	Dwight Howard	Yao Ming

Except for maybe that LeBron/Amar'e mismatch, but all in all it looks solid.  However, if we go to the reserves:

ASG Reserves	EAST	WEST
Point Guard	Devin Harris Mo Williams	Tony Parker Chauncey Billups
Shooting Guard	Joe Johnson Ray Allen	Brandon Roy
Small Forward	Danny Granger Paul Pierce
Power Forward	Rashard Lewis	Pau Gasol Dirk Nowitzki David West
Center		Shaquille O’Neal

By no means are Gasol, Nowitzki, or West extremely difficult covers for Lewis, though Gasol might be for his size.  What wins out here though?  Size or speed?  No way Nowitzki or West could stay in front of Granger or Pierce, but no way could Lewis keep Shaq out of the paint.  Unless they play Dwight Howard 48 minutes, which would be dumb.

An interesting note is that the West has the perfect team to play 2-3 zone defense, but also, the East has exactly the kind of offensive game (lots of shooters: Williams, Johnson, Granger, Lewis, Allen, even Pierce) to destroy zone.

What do you think?

On a side note:

Mo Williams was also selected to replace Jameer Nelson in the Playstation Skills Challenge, I still say Derrick Rose takes this.

JR Smith was seleceted to replace Rudy Gay, who is suffering from a hip flexor, in the Sprite Slam Dunk Challenge.  JR Smith was a participant in the 2005 Slam Dunk Contest and lost to Josh Smith that year.  Smith changes things up, I think he's more explosive, so he could bring something back to it.  I look for him and Rudy Fernandez to spice things up, though, I can't say my expectations for Rudy are that high.

How desperate is Rob Sarver?

A lot of people are reporting that Rob Sarver really wants to just to pay less and therefore is shopping major pieces including Amar'e Stoudemire.  It's been no secret that Amar'e isn't fitting with the new Suns.  However, Sarver's antics are making the Suns look desperate, which is a formula for fleecing.

How desperate is Sarver?  

As a Knicks fan, I'm hoping this desperate.

All Cavs fans can stop crying now...

I don't know that it's necessarily Cavs fans more than pundits, but I could be wrong.  I mean, I don't think you should put the second best player on the winningest team in the All-Star game just because he's exactly that, the second-best player on the winningest team.  I mean, if there are players from other teams that are better, contributing more, and being more effective than the second-best player then they should get in over said second-best player.  

Nonetheless, it's official, Mo Williams is an All-Star.  Since Chris Bosh will not be playing, the "snub" will be snubbed no longer, as David Stern reaches over and picks Mo Williams to replace Bosh in the roster.  The East now has an interesting look, flooring Dwayne Wade, Allen Iverson, LeBron James, Kevin Garnett, and Dwight Howard as starters, with Devin Harris, Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Danny Granger, Paul Pierce, Rashard Lewis, and now Mo Williams coming off the bench as reserves.  Small.

Nonetheless, I'm going to rant a little more about why Mo Williams was never "snubbed" and why this is just really a lucky break for him.  I mean, on any other given day, I'm pretty sure everyone would pick Chris Bosh over Mo Williams any day.

Ok, so let's first look at the arguments why Mo Williams should have been selected to play in the ASG.

1.) The Cavs are 39-10, 36-9 at the time of the announcement, 34-8 by the time votes were all submitted, at the time best in the Eastern Conference.

2.) Last season, before Mo Williams was acquired the Cavs were 45-37, that's a 0.549 win percentage.  Now they're at 0.796 and the only way they could do worse than last season is to go worse than 16-27 for the rest of the season.

3.) Zyrdunas Ilgauskas was injured at the time of the voting, and besides, Mo Williams has the 2nd highest scoring average on the team.

Ok... So, the Cavs are doing better, and since Mo Williams was the major off-season acquisition, he's obviously the reason why.  Hm... questionable.  I'll say that he helps, but he's not the only reason.  I think that an All-Star berth is more of an individual accolade than it is a team reward, that's what the playoffs and Finals are for.

First, let's get this straight: Mo Williams is not playing better basketball in Cleveland.  Let's take a look at the numbers:

Mo Williams	Cleveland Cavaliers (2008-2009)	Milwaukee Bucks (2007-2008)
Points	17.1	17.2
Rebounds	3.3	3.5
Assists	4.2	6.5
Steals	0.8	1.2
Blocks	0.1	0.2
Turnovers	2.3	2.8
Field Goal %	46.1%	48.0%
Free Throw %	94.3%	85.6%
3 point %	39.8%	38.5%
3 points made	1.9	1.4
Minutes per game	34:12	36:30

Ok, so his scoring and rebounding are virtually the same, he's doing it in fewer minutes though, so that's a plus.  However, I'd argue that it's because he's making more 3s because he's getting more looks.  His turnovers are down marginally, but that's just because he has the ball in his hands less, an inherent inevitability when you're teammates with LeBron James, which explains why his assists are down, because he's not intiating the offense.  So if Mo Williams was never All-Star caliber when playing for a crappy Bucks squad, why is he being lauded now that he's doing the exact same thing on a good Cavs team?  So, if Troy Murphy averaged 11 points and 13 rebounds for Atlanta (4th in the East) instead of Indiana (13th in the East) then he should automatically get All-Star consideration?  Seriously?  Does the winning record make him that much better than everyone else? 

“Snubs”	Mo Williams	Andre Iguodala	Hedo Turkoglu	Josh Smith
Points	17.1	17.8	17.2	16.0
Rebounds	3.3	6.1	5.3	7.7
Assists	4.2	5.3	4.9	2.5
Steals	0.8	1.7	0.9	1.4
Blocks	0.1	0.4	0.3	1.6
Turnovers	2.3	2.8	2.7	2.5
Field Goal %	46.1%	47.3%	40.5%	49.0%
Free Throw %	94.3%	74.5%	80.4%	59.0%
3 point %	39.8%	29.3%	36.4%	24.1%
3 points made	1.9	0.9	1.9	0.3
Minutes per game	34:12	38:42	36:53	35:47

So Mo Williams is automatically better than Iggy, Hedo, and Smith simply because his team won more games?  Ok, so some people think that 3 Magic in the ASG is unsconsciable, because it just happens that their entire starting lineup has been carrying them through games because their bench sucks, it's not like I'm crying for Mickael Pietrus to make it?  I'm not going to get into that.

Second argument is that Williams just makes the Cavs that much better.  I don't think it's Williams, I just think the Cavs improved.  There's not much else to it.  Delonte West is playing better, Zyrdunas Ilgauskas is playing better, heck Wally Sczerbiak is playing better.  Mike Brown has figured out an offense beyond pass and isolate LeBron 30 ft out from the basket.  Sure Mo Williams was a major addition, and definitely an upgrade over Daniel Gibson as a starter, but still, it's not like he's the only reason the Cavs are winning, and just because the Cavs are winning, shouldn't be the only reason that he gets an ASG berth.

That being said, he's in, so congrats Mo.  From my perspective though, you got lucky.

Something about David West always rubbed me the wrong way...

I don't know what it was, but just something about it...

Maybe it was this:

"David West is a good player, but a cheap player."

My All-Star Game Predictions

So basically all the "official" All-Star Game events are pretty much set, well, at least the big ones, those being the dunk contest, three-point contest, skills challenge, rookie-sophomore game, and the actual All-Star Game after which the weekend is named.  Now that we know how everything is going down, it's fair to start making some predictions.  This is just for fun, so let's get to it.

Foot Locker 3-Point Shootout

Participants:

Rashard Lewis (SF/PF, Orlando Magic)

Jason Kapono (SG/SF, Toronto Raptors)

Danny Granger (SG/SF, Indiana Pacers)

Roger Mason (PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs)

Daequan Cook (SG, Miami Heat)

Mike Bibby (PG, Atlanta Hawks)

My first reaction to this was; Daequan Cook?  My second was; there sure isn't much representation of the Western Conference.  I wouldn't mind seeing like Peja or someone like that in this.  A lot of people say Rudy Fernandez, but he's a rookie, and he's already in two events.  Not sure who decides this, but seriously, Daequan Cook?  Ok, he's making 2.3 out of 5.7 per game (41%) which is what Mike Bibby shoots, but surely you can find someone better than Daequan Cook...  My recommendations include and are not limited to; Kevin Martin (2.2/5.3, 41.2%), Troy Murphy (2.0/4.8, 42%), Steve Blake (I know he's injured, but still, 2.1/4.9, 43.4%), Peja Stojakovic (2.6/6.2, 41%), Ben Gordon (2.2/5.3, 41%).  That's just based on the arbitrary standard (which it seems like the players were picked from) of players making more than 2 3pts a game and shooting over 40% from downtown, pick five and throw in Jason Kapono, the reigning champ, and you have the 3 point contest.  There's also been a lot of local support (Bay Area) for Anthony Morrow, and how now he'll go crazy because he was jilted from the All-Star weekend.  Ok, I'm done.

For those of you unfamiliar with what this is, there are five ball carts placed around the the point arc.  Each cart has 4 regular balls plus 1 money (different colored) ball.  Point of the contest is simple, score as many points as you can shooting 3 pointers.  Each regular ball counts for 1 and each money ball counts for 2.  You have 1 minute, starting from the cart at the left corner, and make as many as you can, moving from left to right, finishing with the cart at the right corner.

All of the above mentioned are great in game shooters, but that might mean they're used to taking leaners or crazy shots or something.  The argument goes though, that if they can make those shots, they should be able to make a series of open uncontested 3s.  Ok... Except, they're timed.   I think I've heard somewhere that Rashard Lewis has a pretty slow release, that might be tough.  Doesn't matter though, because Jason Kapono was designed to shoot uncontested 3s from ball racks in a short amount of time.  Now if you followed the link, it doesn't show all of the first two carts, but it can be presumed that he makes all of them, and only misses the first ball in the last cart.  He tied the record for the 3 pt contest of 25, and I don't see any one of those people beating him out.  You hear them saying that they want to see Ray Allen or Michael Redd in this thing against Kapono, me too.  Granted, I'd rather have Rashard Lewis or Danny Granger being my "3pt specialist" but that's more because a.) they're better in game, b.) they can do something other than shoot threes.  However, this isn't an in-game situation.  3peat.

Projected Winner: Jason Kapono

Playstation Skills Challenge

Participants:

Derrick Rose (PG, Chicago Bulls)

Tony Parker (PG, San Antonio Spurs)

Devin Harris (PG, New Jersey Nets)

Unknown

They haven't announced a replacement yet for Jameer Nelson, and who will replace him in this challenge.  Maybe they'll bring back the reinging champ and record holder Deron Williams, though I don't know that that's likely.  Hard to say who they'd pick, maybe bring in Steve Nash?  I think last year was Deron Williams, Dwayne Wade (the then reigning champ), Jason Kidd, and Chris Paul.  The year before was Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, Steve Nash (the reigning champ from 2005), and Chris Paul.  In 2005 Steve Nash won out over Luke Ridnour, Gilbert Arenas, and Earl Boykins.  In 2004, before Playstation started sponsoring the Skills Challenge, Baron Davis won out against Earl Boykins, Derek Fisher, and Stephon Marbury.  Tony Parker has appeared in Skills Challenge before, but was embarrassed in 2003 against Marbury, Kidd, and Gary Payton.

I'm not very good at explaining what you have to do, so you guys can look up what specifically each player has to do in the Skills Challenge.

The fourth player here is going to be the x-factor.  What killed Tony Parker during his last try at this challenge was really the 20 ft jumper at the top of the key, however he's improved a lot.  The thing about Rose, Parker, and Harris, is that they're all really, really fast, so I imagine that they'd all do well.  However given that, Harris and Parker will not have participated in any event, whereas Rose will already have played in the Rookie-Sophomore challenge.  Maybe that's what makes the difference.  As you can imagine, this is more a test of perfection than of sheer speed, so whoever makes the fewest number of mistakes will be the winner.  That being said, I think Rose brings the most complete skill-set to the arena.  Not saying he's better than everyone else, just saying that he has all the components to make this work.

Projected Winner: Derrick Rose

Sprite Slam Dunk Contest

Participants

Dwight Howard (C, Orlando Magic)

Nate Robinson (PG/SG, New York Knicks)

Rudy Gay (SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies)

Rudy Fernandez (SG/SF, Portland Trailblazers)

I've been kind of disenchanted with the Slam Dunk contest, but this is arguably the second-biggest event of the weekend.  I'm personally not a fan of the fans voting for the winner, but hey, what can you do about it?  I also wasn't particularly impressed with the selection for this year.  Dwight Howard and Nate Robinson are kind of the novelty big-man and small-man (respectively) participants, that, and Dwight Howard is kind of the reigning champ.  Nate Robinson has already been in the Slam Dunk contest twice, once in 2006 beating out Andre Iguodala with his dunk over Spudd Webb, and then again in 2007 to defend his title, where he got upstaged by Gerald Green.  Rudy Gay, honestly wasn't that impressive last year, but it might've just been because Dwight Howard sort of stole the stage, from everyone.  Rudy Fernandez was a fan vote in, though I can't say they had a whole lot to choose from, the choice being Fernandez, Joe Alexander from the Bucks, and Russell Westbrook from the Thunder.

Now for those of you that don't know what happens in the Slam Dunk Contest, each player gets 2 minutes to perform a dunk of his choice.  There are unlimited number of attempts, you just have to get a dunk off in 2 minutes.  There are two rounds of these which are scored by judges (usually former NBA greats such as Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson) on scale of 1 to 10, 1 being utter trash and 10 being unbelieveable.  Then the two players with the highest scores advance to the final round where they are both allotted two more dunks, after which, the fans text in their pick for the Slam Dunk champ.  This whole fans picking the champ thing started last year, and I can't say I'm a fan of it, but oh well.  I generally don't vote, because I don't have a texting plan and I think it's a waste of $0.20.

Hm.... hard to pick this year, especially because in the Slam Dunk contest you never know what's going to happen.  Some people might be sleeping on Rudy Fernandez, I wasn't overly impressed with the pick, but it happened this year, and maybe I'm wrong.  I'm gonna give it to Dwight again this year, because I think he's probably the most creative out of them.  Unless Gay comes out with something new, and I think we've seen enough of how high Nate Robinson can jump, and honestly, because of that, he can't do a whole lot.  Fernandez is kind of the x-factor as the only dunks people ever play of him is him dunking on Howard in the Olympics and a reverse alley-oop he got from Sergio Rodruiguez, in game.  All-in-all I'm just hoping for a good show, something a little more climactic than Fred Jones winning off a layup because Jason Richardson misses a dunk.

Projected Winner: Dwight Howard

Rookie-Sophomore Challenge

Projected Starters	Rookies	Sophomores
PG	Derrick Rose	Rodney Stuckey
SG	OJ Mayo	Wilson Chandler
SF	Rudy Fernandez	Kevin Durant
PF	Michael Beasley	Thaddeus Young
C	Greg Oden	Al Horford

As a note, these are my projected starters, whoever ends up coaching this game might end up doing something completely different.

 

Reserves	Rookies	Sophomores
Guards	Russell Westbrook Eric Gordon	Aaron Brooks
Forwards		Jeff Green Al Thornton
Centers	Marc Gasol Brook Lopez	Luis Scola

First thing you notice is that the rookies don't have any forwards and the sophomores don't really have a true center.  I do a slightly more thorough breakdown of it in my previous post, so I won't go into too much detail here.  I think you'll probably see the PF slot manned by Beasley and Gasol pretty frequently, maybe even Lopez.  I also wouldn't be surprised if the sophomores run small with a frontcourt of some combination of Young, Green, and Thornton.  Ultimately though, I think the sophomores just have more firepower than the rookies, they don't have anyone that is both big enough and fast enough to stay with Kevin Durant.  

Projected Winner: Sophomores

All-Star Game

Starters	East	West
PG	Allen Iverson	Chris Paul
SG	Dwayne Wade	Kobe Bryant
SF	LeBron James	Amar’e Stoudemire
PF	Kevin Garnett	Tim Duncan
C	Dwight Howard	Yao Ming

 

Reserves	East	West
Guards	Devin Harris Joe Johnson Ray Allen	Chauncey Billups Brandon Roy Tony Parker
Forwards	Paul Pierce Danny Granger Rashard Lewis	Dirk Nowitzki Pau Gasol David West
Centers	Chris Bosh	Shaquille O’Neal

 Interesting to note that while the East only has one true center and 1 center eligible PF, the West has 2 true centers and 3 center eligible PFs.  On that note, the West also doesn't have any small forwards.  I don't really expect a whole lot in terms of set plays or defenses in this game, but size will be an issue that the East has to deal with, and perimeter defense needs to be a priority of the West.  I'm gonna go with the East just because their roster is more balanced.  If they included Kevin Durant instead of David West, they wouldn't have this problem.

Projected Winner: East