What will it take?: San Antonio Spurs

I'm not going to hide it, I'm a Spurs fan. For this reason alone, I'm not allowed to post on Bright Side of the Sun, though they do have some good stuff, which I would love to comment, but, I'm a Spurs fan. Honestly, the only two spots that I really enjoy reading and posting on would have to be Pounding the Rock or Third Quarter Collapse. Anyways, that's not what I'm writing about here. However, as a final side note, if I were to actually get League Pass and start watching games on a regular basis, I would become a Spurs blogger, maybe I should... I'm seriously thinking about it. Anyways...

Onwards... I think Spurs are one of the other teams with a better chance of upsetting the Lakers in a 7-game series. Of course, there's a lot that has to go right in order for that to happen. What I want to do here, is discuss the things that "have to go right" in order for said upset (which I hope will happen) to happen. Spurs currently stand 3rd in the Western Conference, 1/2 a game behind Denver, 1/2 a game ahead of Houston, two teams, who, honestly, I don't think really have much of a chance. Should the season end with no change to the standings, the Spurs would be playing Portland for the first round and the winner of Denver/Utah (I pick Utah) in the second. Let me just say, those are two tough matchups. My personal hope is that Utah jumps to 5 to play Houston so then Lakers would have to go through them first before matching up with the Spurs (assuming both advance to the Western Conference Finals). Hope. Yeah.

So from a purely basketball standpoint, what do Spurs need? Well, firstly, the obvious answer is they need to be healthy. They need to be back 100%, full speed. The most noteable players they need to be certain are healthy are Manu Ginobili and Drew Gooden. Of course, they have to keep Tony Parker and Tim Duncan healthy for the remainder of the season too. One of the primary reasons I say this is because the Rockets and Nuggets are such good regular season teams, that I don't see them falling to a spot where the Spurs will play them (though maybe the Spurs might fall to a spot where they'll play them given their last two games). While I don't anticipate the Rockets or Nuggets making a whole lot of noise in the postseason (read: 1st round exit) I think they can stay in the top 4 spots and retain homecourt advantage. Additionally, I don't see Dallas gaining any ground to play anyone besides the Lakers, but that all could change, still, I think it's pretty unlikely. That means that the Spurs have to hit the playoffs running, because their first matchup is likely to be pretty challenging from the getgo, Portland, New Orleans, and Utah are the choices, and I'd really rather not have to face any of them in a playoff series. Manu is slowly working his way back, but he's not quite 100% yet, hopefully he makes a full recovery by playoffs.

If everyone is healthy, then we have to have Tony Parker continue to have a career season into the offseason. Next, Tim Duncan has to be, well, Tim Duncan. The big questionmarks then kind of fall to the role players. I know this all sounds kind of obvious, in the effect of saying "all the Spurs players just need to play well" but there does have to be some level of consistent production from Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, Drew Gooden, Kurt Thomas, and Roger Mason Jr in order for the Spurs to have a chance. While the core of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is a formidable offense (if healthy), you can't really bank on them wresting control of the game and pulling the team out of the fire as regularly or reliably as say Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, or even Paul Pierce. Parker has done it a couple of times, and it might save the Spurs in a couple of close ones, but it's not something to bank on. I think Bonner, Mason, and Bowen (and Udoka I guess) all know their role in the system, so I think the biggest x-factor here is going to be Drew Gooden. If Drew Gooden can play smart and work efficiently (i.e. not jack up flat-footed wing jumpers) then the Spurs are in good shape. What they need Gooden to do, is to grab rebounds (especially offensive ones) and get his points off those putbacks, and also to be able to keep his head on defense, which he's not known for doing, but still, a little effort wouldn't hurt.

Finally, I think Popovich needs to figure out his rotations. How to most effectively use his players.

MAKE MANU THE SUPER SIXTH MAN AGAIN
Firstly, I'm in agreement with most people that Manu should come off the bench. What this does is give the bench a lot of firepower and instant offense. I think that the most effective starting 5 for the Spurs thusfar this season has been Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, Duncan. It works, assuming (a fairly large if I guess) Mason, Finley, and Bonner can hit their open shots. Graydon a solid Spurs blogger makes a note of this in regards to the previous Spurs loss to OKC, well, not specifically in regards to the lineup but in regards to how Pop needs to work his rotations, there are other posts on it at Graydon (and co)'s blog. I know the subs aren't going to get tons of time come playoffs, but hey, the starters also need their rest, but I'd much rather see Hill, Ginobili, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas off than Vaughn, Mason, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas.

PLAY LESS MICHAEL FINLEY
One thing about this season I think that Pop has gone with is more firepower at the expense of some defense, which, I believe, given this roster is understandable. However, I don't know if that really dictates playing Michael Finley 30+ minutes per game. Right now, Finley's role is to hit open threes, which I believe given the minutes, either Udoka or Bowen can do effectively. So the second thing with the rotation is to limit Finley's minutes. I think those extra stops that Bowen/Udoka come up with will ultimately be more important, especially late game than the extra shots that Finley gets, especially when Finley isn't shooting well (in the last two losses Finley, while averaging 13 points has been shooting 10-28, that's 35.7%, ugh). In previous years, there was a lot of help from the middle from Duncan and one of Fransisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto, or Kurt Thomas, however, now with Bonner inserted as a key role in the lineup, I don't know that they can really afford to have another defensive liability on the floor.

PLAY MORE GEORGE HILL
Ok, so Hill might not be as great of a shooter as say Finley or Mason, but the idea is like that of playing less Finley and more Bowen/Udoka, the stops will be more important than the shots. One item of note that I found from the box score of the OKC game was really the rotation. I mean really, why is Jacque Vaughn playing 13+ minutes while George Hill gets a DNP? I know he's a rookie and inexperienced and all that, but isn't the last few games of the season a great time to get him that experience? While Vaughn knows how to make the offense go, he's really not much good on either end of the floor. Especially if Ginobili is the 6th man, I think that Hill wouldn't need to facilitate as much, since Ginobili will be there with him. This also moves Mason, who's not a great facilitator back to being the SG instead of the backup PG. I understand that Pop might want Mason on the floor, without getting considerably smaller (playing Mason at 2). While end-game situations might get iffy if Mason stays an SG since you might have to play Manu as a SF, I don't think that'll be as bad as more floor time for Michael Finley or something. I think he'll be crucial defensively especially as playoffs include the prospects of matching up against Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams.

I was discussing this with a friend (a Lakers fan) and while I think that a healthy Spurs outfit could sneak a 7 game series from the Lakers, there's one thing I failed to consider: David Stern hates the Spurs. That, I suppose is another uphill battle that the Spurs have to face, but at this point, it's all conspiracy theories. So these are what I think it will take for the Spurs to win. I believe that should everyone figure out the system and Pop sticks with a rotation that works, then Spurs have as good of a shot as anyone. Plus, it's an odd year.

Again Pop, here's my recommended rotation:

PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason Jr, Manu Ginobili
SF - Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka
PF - Matt Bonner, Drew Gooden
C - Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas

Don't play anyone else, though, I suppose you could stick Fab in there somewhere if he gets healthy again.

What will it take?: LA Lakers

I was considering doing a piece on how Shaq needs to learn how to shut his mouth, but there's already a lot of literature out there on that (ok maybe not "literature, but there's a bit of writing on it). Then, I thought about maybe talking about how Celtics defense maybe isn't so much stifling as it is dirty. So I decided, to move forward with a post that I've been meaning to get to for a while, that is, a closer look at all the different contenders in the league, which I boiled down to 2 per conference with a "dark horse" type team thrown in for kicks. I've tried to get some external input on this as well, so here goes:

The Lakers are currently the best team in the league, at least record-wise. A lot of people are gearing for a rematch of last year's finals showdown (Boston and LA). Kenny Smith continually talks about how the Lakers are the only team to improve their roster from last season (it's on one of the Inside the NBA episodes, don't remember which one) significantly. I can agree with his analysis that having Gasol for a whole year and having a healthy Ariza, even without Bynum again, the Lakers are improved, yes. While the other teams in the West haven't made a significant move, but it's hard to say that other teams haven't "improved" either. I'm not going to get into that though.

Last season, the Lakers had a solid run through the Western Conference, starting with a sweep of Denver in the first round, a fairly even 6 game matchup against Utah, and then a convincing 5 game rout of San Antonio (despite some controversy). I'm sure they're looking for another run again this season, but this time, hopefully overcome the Eastern Conference team that they face. After losing to Boston in 5 games in last year's Finals, the Lakers were accused of being soft, unable to bang with the more physical Boston frontline of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. Maybe that was the case, and they hoped that the return of Bynum would add some physicality to their game, which it did, until he got hurt, again.

One thing that the Lakers have definitely established thusfar this season is that they play very good team basketball, be it on the offensive end or defensive end. Phil Jackson's triangle offense emphasizes a lot of ball movement and when it's clicking, it's nigh impossible to stop. The offense has always been there, the defense however, is what the Lakers need. Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold says:

"When the Lakers have wanted to, they have been a very good defensive team this season, playing a much more aggressive style in the sense that there is a lot of help from bigs to keep guys from driving into the lane and getting easy buckets (think Paul Pierce in the Finals last year). The Lakers are going to make teams beat them from the outside, not in the paint. The Lakers played that system well early in the season, but since their focus and commitment on the defensive end has been spotty. It can't be in the playoffs, especially the later rounds. I think you'll see the last few weeks of the season that playing more focused defense will be something the coaching staff and players will talk a lot about."

It kind of goes without saying that one of the first priorities for the Lakers is to get Bynum back for the post-season, to get him back healthy, because the main culprits of the Lakers' interior softness would be their current frontcourt tandem of Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Should Bynum get back healthy, it provides a solid interior presence that the Lakers desperately needed against more physical bigs. One thing Kenny Smith notes in his preview of this Thursday's Lakers/Spurs matchup is that the Lakers have a really hard time guarding Tim Duncan. If you notice from the highlights, a lot of times it's just Duncan scoring over Lamar Odom, who isn't a great post defender. Bynum gives that big body that can press against Duncan and force him out of the paint, that doesn't completely nullify Duncan, but it does make his shots more difficult. Additionally, while Derek Fisher is a smart defender, he's also an aging player, he's not quite as fast as he once was, and so guards like Tony Parker usually have their way with him, the damage done by those kind of slashing guards is mitigated significantly with an interior help presence of someone like Andrew Bynum. Again, Kurt addresses this issue:

"They need Andrew Bynum back, not for any scoring but for the way he protects the paint on defense and grabs rebounds. Bynum also provides depth — right now the Lakers second unit is struggling because it cannot generate offense outside the fast break. So Odom or Gasol have to stay in with them, racking up a lot of minutes, to provide a good scoring option in the half court. Bynum's return will mean more regular minutes for everyone (Bynum may come off the bench, at least at first). In the playoffs, the depth matters less because the key players can and will take on more minutes, but the Lakers need that depth because it gives Phil Jackson more matchup options in the playoffs. It allows him to go big or small, to do a number of things that will frustrate opponents."

Of course, while it's certain that the Lakers will likely clinch the top spot in the Western Conference, a good regular season record isn't really indicative of post season success. However, this Lakers team does look a lot more balanced than the 2007 Dallas Mavericks did. Granted there's a little luck involved, what with the matchups, but the first round looks like it'll be against a floundering Dallas Mavericks, which I think the Lakers should take easily. However, they really can't let that get to them. For the Lakers, the talent is all there, I'm sure having been so close to winning the Larry O'Brien trophy, the desire should be too, I think the main thing is for them to focus on each game in front of them as each series progresses. If the 2007 Golden State Warriors taught us anything, it's that you can't really take anyone for granted in a 7-game playoff series. Certainly it would help if there was an upset here or there, however, and none of the teams ranked 2-7 in the West will be an easy out, since they all deserve to be there.

I think the most serious threats though that the Lakers will face would be Utah Jazz and the San Antonio Spurs. I feel like Denver, Houston, and New Orleans will falter when it switches over from one-and-done regular season games to the grueling 7-game matchups against such high caliber teams. Portland honestly, just hasn't really been there, so while that might be held against them, they are something of an x-factor. Nonetheless, I think the Blazers still have some growing so experience wins out in the end. In terms of favorable matchups, despite having homecourt advantage, the Lakers would really want the Jazz to beat out the Rockets for the 3rd place spot, so that San Antonio and Utah would play each other before facing the Lakers, instead of the Lakers running the possibility of having to play both of them (again) in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I personally don't think there's a team that's invulnerable to defeat, and I think the other contenders in the West have as equal a chance as the Eastern contenders to keep the Lakers from winning that championship. That being said, I think it's equally likely that the Lakers could win it all this season. There are still a number of games left in the season, and too many unknowns both in LA and on the other squads for anyone to say for sure.

Finally, I think for the Lakers taking home a championship banner, is beyond Kobe doing his Kobe thing, the rest of the players need to step it up. The entire Lakers team needs to be playing at that higher level and not have to fall back on Kobe shooting them out of holes. That means that the "gel" guys, I think namely Lamar Odom, have to be able to pick it up when their number is called. Kobe's going to get a ton of defensive attention, and to a lesser extent Gasol, which means that the reserve roles have to be willing to take big shots. Fisher doesn't have that problem, but my concern would be more for Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, and the like. While the reserves usually don't get as much burn with starters willing to play more minutes, progressive fatigue can still catch up, especially if series start dragging on to 6-7 games, so the role players really have to go out and get their own on the floor.

That was pretty dense so let me bullet point what I think the Lakers need for success, adding on a few peripheral notes while I'm at it:

• A healthy Bynum to return for the post season
• Focus on the defensive end, especially in the paint
  
• Kobe being Kobe
• Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom not being fatigued by too many minutes with Bynum out
• Odom and Luke Walton have to step it up
• Keep running the triangle
  

That's it for now, if you have a comment feel free to leave it, this is how I see it. I'll be posting my predictions for the other contenders hopefully soon.

All-Star Picks: West

So... the All-Star returns are in, and we know our starters at the very least.  We know who's starting in Phoenix.  There are some funny murmurings of vote fixing both in the East and the West, but most recently with the West.  I'm not sure of the exact numbers but there was one last minute change in the rankings as the polls closed.  Since the West has that slightly greater contention, I guess we'll start there.

Western Conference:

Starters:

Kobe Bryant (SG, Los Angeles Lakers)

I don't think there's really much of a question to this one, I mean, really, he's the best SG in the league, arguably, though his numbers are slightly down, but of course, that comes from playing with such a loaded team where he's only averaging 36 minutes per game.  Of course, by "down" I mean he's "only" averaging 26.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.3 steals on 47% FG shooting.  Currently Kobe's averaging the least amount of minutes played since his sophomore season (where he averaged 26 minutes per game) and is able to do a lot more with it.  The man is a winner and a warrior, just one of the most brilliant basketball players ever.  The MVP last season, and considered one of the best basketball players on the planet, and everybody knows it, there's no reason why he shouldn't get the starting nudge.

Chris Paul (PG, New Orleans Hornets)

There's a question of David Stern tinkering with the numbers because of the sudden surge of CP3 votes to put him over T-Mac in the starting slot.  I'm not going to disagree that Paul is the better pick, but it kind of defeats the purpose of fan voting for starters if that's really the case.  I'm not going to get into that though.  Chris Paul has been the revival of New Orleans basketball, coming in second in MVP voting last year, he has almost single-handedly carried a floundering Hornets franchise into becoming a contender.  Paul is also the current league leader in assists and steals, his per game averages read; 21.2 points, 5.5 rebounds, 11.0 assists, 2.7 steals all on nearly 50% FG shooting, phenomenal.  There is no question he is the best point guard in the league right now.  As a small note, his assist numbers are actually down 0.6 this season from last.  As a second note, the guy's only 23, he's got room to improve.  Some might think he's like the rebirth of the Mike D'Antoni version Steve Nash (18.6 pts, 11.6 assts, on 53% shooting), however, here's a major difference: New Orleans plays at a pace of 89.6 possessions per game, Mike D'Antoni's Knicks (whom we'll assume played similarly to the Suns of old) use 10 more possessions per game.  CP3 gets these stats in a slow offense, really slow (29th in the league).

Tim Duncan (PF/C, San Antonio Spurs)

There is also no reason Tim Duncan should not be in the All-Star Game.  There is no PF that has ever been more consistently dominant in the league, it's arguable that there has been no PF as good as Tim Duncan.  Duncan has been putting up these numbers for the past 11 years he's been in the NBA and continues to do so well into his 12th, and there's no reason to think that he'll taper off going into his 15th.  He's averaging 20.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.8 blocks on 51% shooting.  Mind you, 1.8 blocks per game is a career low for him.  Under the radar because he doesn't have that flashy game and because he's been doing it for the past 11 years, nonetheless, he should be on the All-Star team and on the starting roster just because he's that good.  Tim Duncan in the low post is the closest thing to an automatic bucket that I can think of.

Amar'e Stoudemire (PF/C, Phoenix Suns)

Don't worry people, the apostrophe still throws me off too.  Then again, I think I spelled his name Stoudamire for an entire season before I realized he wasn't related to Damon or Salim.  His numbers are definitely down as he is becoming less of the focal point of the offense, oftentimes I forget that he's on the Suns, as the offense gets run through Shaq so much.  However, he's still a dominant factor in the game and one of the best bigs, should he get his mind in the game, which, is something that he hasn't really done.  He's getting 21.3 points, 8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 blocks per game on 54% shooting, solid numbers for a big.  He's definitely not lived up to expectations that everyone had for him, and definitely has a tendency to fade under pressure, and not dominate games like we want him to, but the fact that the ASG is in Phoenix gives him some bonus points here.

Yao Ming (C, Houston Rockets)

There really isn't much doubt that Yao would be voted in as an All-Star starter, really, it was a given, China wouldn't let it be otherwise, unless Stern messed with the votes and then there would be rioting, and that would be bad.  Honestly though, to address it from a merit basis, there aren't any other centers that deserve the spot more.  As much as I want to call Tim Duncan a center, Yao Ming is the best true center in the Western Conference.  His averages are down a little, but, nonetheless, he's doing well; 19.9 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.7 blocks on 54% shooting.  He's definitely solid, no other center comes close.

So here are my picks for the Western Conference reserves, the starters are set, and I don't greatly disagree with them to any extent, actually, I think the Western Conference starters are exactly the starters that I voted.  Anyways, here are who I think the coaches should pick as the reserves.  Again, for those unfamiliar, the coaches pick 2 guards, 2 forwards, a center, and 2 wildcard slots for the roster.  

Reserves:

Chauncey Billups (PG, Denver Nuggets)

Billups only played 2 games for Detroit before he was packaged in a surprise trade for Denver's Allen Iverson.  Off of this season's immediate impact, it looks like Denver got the better end of the trade.  Billups definitely has been performing extraordinarily well, and has been the solid veteran floor leader for the Nuggets and has helped them put together this strong season.  He's averaging 18.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.4 steals on about 42% shooting since the trade.  He's been the key (more so than Melo) to the Nuggets' success this season and therefore it would be wrong to shun him.  There really aren't any other guards out there making as big of an impact on the floor, and that's I think, one major component of the All-Star game that really should be considered, in addition to the numbers (Denver has been 26-14 since Billups suited up).

Brandon Roy (SG, Portland Trailblazers)

I think Roy should be on the All-Star roster for many, many years to come.  Granted, a lot of people thought he stole one of the wildcard slots last season, but this season, he's definitely proven himself worthy.  Despite only being in his 3rd year, he's already become the steady-handed veteran-like leader of the young Blazers squad, and has shown he can take over the game.  He's averaging; 22.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1 steal on 46% shooting.  Reminder, only his third season.  Beyond my liking Roy for going to Washington (my alma mater) he's a solid no frills kind of player that's hard not to like.  He's really helped put Portland on the map, and is one of the reasons that Kevin Pritchard looks like a genius (this pick otherwise would have been Randy Foye).  

Dirk Nowitzki (PF, Dallas Mavericks)

As much as I disklike Dirk, you have to admit, he's been shouldering a large load in carrying a floundering Mavericks, at least in the offense, and is definitely putting up All-Star numbers.  As much as he can't carry a team to a championship, he's definitely among the elite for big men, and puts up solid numbers to back it up; 26 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists on 47% shooting.  While 47% might seem a little low for a big man, you have to remember that Dirk shoots a lot from the perimeter, so you kind of have to treat his shooting percentage like those of a SF, which in this case, 47% is phenomenal.  No reason to snub the German wonder, at least I can't find one without seeming self-contradictory.

Kevin Durant (SG/SF, Oklahoma City Thunder)

Durant's game has completely transformed after Scotty Brooks decided to be smart and move him out of the SG slot.  For that, he warrants All-Star mentions.  Granted he's on Oklahoma City, ok, but let's not hold that against him.  He's the one bright spot on a dull Thunder team.  He's really been lighting it up and thriving in his new role of the offense, and scary thing is, it's only his second year.  The kid is 20.  He's averaging 24.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.2 steals on 46.9% shooting.  Stellar, just stellar.  I think he can rebound better, but from what I hear, they're just playing him way too far from the hoop.  Nonetheless, the kid seems to have the game figured out.

Al Jefferson (PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves)

Big Al is doing his best to keep a slap-dash T'Wolves somewhere near respectability in the league.  Put together with an inconsistent Sebastian Telfair, streaky Randy Foye, undersized Ryan Gomes and Craig Smith, and ill-used Mike Miller, Al Jefferson has been the solid anchor in the entire franchise.  Averages of 22.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.6 blocks on 49% is no easy feat, especially as opposing teams tend to focus their defense on Jefferson.  Sure he has room to grow, but his production so far in his 5th season (he's only 23) has definitely given the T'Wolves some hope for the future.  The guy is a stud.  Definitely should get in here on the ASG roster, and there really isn't a center in the West I think that can top him out.

Wildcards:

These two slots just go to whoever is left, regardless of the position, just based, I guess on merit.  Not really too sure, but it's just two extra roster slots to pick.

Tony Parker (PG, San Antonio Spurs)

Parker, while having missed a short period of time with an ankle sprain definitely has been part of what has helped tide the Spurs over from their rough start without Manu Ginobili.  He's been having a career year, and honestly, there really isn't any guard that can stay in front of him.  He's definitely playing stellar basketball, and for that, I think, should get a nudge into the All-Star Game; 20.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, 6.7 assists on 49.8% shooting.  There really aren't many other guards that can pull that off.  

Pau Gasol (PF/C, Los Angeles Lakers)

While it irks me to put him on here, I have to, just based on the fact that his team is doing so well and he's such an integral part of it.  He consistently provides a post presence for the Lakers and definitely keeps Phil Jackson's offense rolling.  He's averaging 17.5 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists on 55.7% shooting.  Those are some solid numbers and the intangibles he brings to the floor definitely give him the edge over the other considerations.

Potential "snubs"

I use "snubs" in quotes because, I really don't know whether or not I'm right, so there's a chance that one of my "snubs" gets in, for some reason or another.  I had a pretty hard time picking the last few slots as the gap between All-Stars and not is really pretty small, so it's hard.  These guys I thought had a shot, but aren't for one reason or another.

LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C, Portland Trailblazers)

Also having a stellar season, definitely improved his game significantly.  However, the fact that he's a big only averaging 6.8 rebounds per game is somewhat alarming, which is why he gets the snub here.

Nene Hilario (PF/C, Denver Nuggets)

I really wanted to put Nene in the All-Star Game, I think him being healthy has been another huge difference maker for the Nuggets.  However, he's just not consistent enough to warrant putting in over the other players (like Gasol, Durant, or Dirk).

Shaquille O'Neal (C, Phoenix Suns)

A part of me says that Shaq is probably going to make the team.  It's nice to see the big guy proving all the doubters (myself included) wrong by having a stellar year, and the fact in it's in Phoenix probably gives him some bonus points in voting.  However, I just can't put him in over some of the other guys.  That, and the fact that he's sat a decent number of games (only 7 but seems like more) just because he's old, I don't know, bringing it only 2 games out of 3 doesn't really do it for me.  

Carmelo Anthony (SF, Denver Nuggets)

He's missed a fairly large part of the season thusfar to injury, unless he comes back real soon I think that's going to hurt him.  Additionally, Kelly Dwyer makes a very strong case for why Kevin Durant should be in the ASG over Melo.  

Rudy Gay (SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies)

Gay has been playing solid, but has had a lot of his shots taken away by OJ Mayo.  Honestly, he's been good, but like Nene, consistency has been something of an issue, which is why I opt not to choose him.

Jason Terry (PG/SG, Dallas Mavericks)

Jason Terry is playing amazing basketball.  Let me just start with that.  It's hard to warrant who to pick over Terry, I personally think Parker is bringing more to a successful team, which is why I opted not to pick Terry, the same with Billups.  Don't get me wrong, Terry's doing a lot for the Mavs, I just feel like the other guards I picked over Terry are just contributing more all around to their respective teams.

Deron Williams (PG, Utah Jazz)

I really feel like Deron should be in here, but an early season injury and the struggles he's had to full recover from it can still kind of be felt today.  Which is sad, because that keeps him out of the ASG.

What's Up With the Clippers?

Sure we can say injuries, sure we can say whatever, new team, new roster, bad chemistry, but seriously, should this team be doing better or did the Clippers' front office overreact in blowing up the team?  It's hard to say, but here's my take: any team in California not called the Lakers has problems.

Let's look at the roster from last season:

PG- Brevin Knight, Dan Dickau

SG- Cuttino Mobley, Quentin Ross

SF- Corey Maggette, Al Thornton

PF- Elton Brand, Tim Thomas

C- Chris Kaman, Josh Powell

This was likely the ideal first squad/second squad setup that I would've had if I were Mike Dunleavy Sr.  Now granted, Sam Cassell played half of the season before asking to be bought out, however, Dunleavy was at a point where he thought Cassell had no gas left and was platooning his time with Brevin Knight, they were basically one person, honestly, and Cassell didn't really figure into being an impact player, except that both Maggette and Brand were out with injuries.  Now if we assume that this is what we get with a fully healthy 2007-2008 Clippers roster.

Let's look at today's roster:

PG- Baron Davis, Jason Hart

SG- Eric Gordon, Mardy Collins

SF- Al Thornton, Ricky Davis

PF- Zach Randolph, Brian Skinner

C- Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman

Now, we still have the same injury problem as Baron Davis, Randolph, Ricky Davis, and Chris Kaman are all out with injuries.  However, if we look at this roster versus the previous, is there really a difference?  First, let's look at a head to head with the starters:

Baron Davis vs Brevin Knight

This is something of a no brainer, of course, Baron Davis, former All-Star is going to win out.  Knight was, and still is, nothing more than a solid reserve that gets a decent assist to turnover ratio in limited minutes.  However, what is the most alarming is the drop off in across the board for Davis's stats.  Let's say last year was a fluke because Baron ended up somehow playing through all 82 games in the season without injury something he hadn't done since the 2001-2002 season, when the Hornets were still in Charlotte.  So, the year before, Davis was averaging: 20.1 pts, 4.4 rbds, 8.1 assts, 2.1 stls, and 0.5 blks on 3.1 TOs.  He was shooting 43.9% from the field including 30.4% from downtown and 74.5% from the line.  This year, so far, Davis is averaging: 17.3 pts, 3.4 rbds, 8.0 assts, 1.8 stls, 2.6 TOs, and 0.5 blks on 36% FG, 29.1% from downtown, and 78.8% from the line.  All of his numbers except FT% is down, a fairly significant amount too.  Granted Baron's been already battling injuries in these first 30-something games of the season, but still, he's not playing the way we expect him to be playing.

Eric Gordon vs Cuttino Mobley

It's not exactly fair to take Eric Gordon's numbers at face value, since he was playing for a while with Mobley still on the roster.  Across the season he's averaging 12.3 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1 steal, 1/2 a block, and a trey on 43.5% shooting and 34.9% from downtown.  He's only averaging 3.7 FT attempts per game, so take his 85% FT shooting with a grain of salt.  However, if we take the 24 starts he's had, you get; 16.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.4 apg, and 1.2 spg, shooting a respectable 45.2%.  Mobley on the other hand, averaged 12.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.4 spg, and 1.1 treys on 43.3% shooting.  As Gordon is putting up these numbers as a rookie, you suspect there is a lot of upside to be had.

Al Thornton vs Corey Maggette

Al Thornton was stellar as a rookie last year, however, it's fair to note, that for his rookie class, he's actually rather old, being already 24 (think like, Travis Outlaw), for a point of reference I don't think either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant can even drink yet.  Thornton has proven he can score, but doesn't really contribute much else.  He's averaging; 16.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 apg on 43.8% shooting.  Maggette on the other hand averaged 22.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1 spg, on 45.8% shooting.  Another item worth noting is that Maggette got to the line almost 10 times per game, almost double the amount of times that Thornton does.  Furthermore, Maggette also averaged almost 2 minutes less floor time per game than Thornton currently does (Maggette got about 36 minutes per game and Thornton, 38).  Scoring aside, their stats are pretty much comparable, with maybe an extra assist here or there for Maggette, making them a pretty comparable player, a black hole for scoring.  However, Maggette was just much more efficient and much better at it (5 pts per game in 2 fewer minutes).

Zach Randolph vs Elton Brand

Of course we all remember that Elton Brand was hobbled by a ruptured achilles tendon last year, so he didn't play much, thus for all extensive purposes we'll look at his stats from the season prior.  Also, I understand that Brand's leaving was by no means the fault of the Clippers' front office, but with that aside, let's run the comparison.  Zach Randolph has had something of a revival after starting the season playing under Mike D'Antoni.  Ever since being traded to the Clippers (for Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas) he's been averaging 23.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game on 48.9% shooting, that was, of course, until he bruised his knee.  Elton Brand on the other hand, averaged 20.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1 steal, and 2.2 blocks on 53.3% shooting when he played the whole season in 2006-2007.  Basically, it's a wash, except Brand plays defense, for all extensive purposes Brand averages 1.9 more blocks per game than Randolph, Randolph on the other hand shoots 2.1 threes per game, making 0.6 of them (36.7%), Brand shot none.  It's a matter of a tradeoff, but for all extensive purposes Brand was shooting more efficiently and played defense.

Marcus Camby vs Chris Kaman

Arguably, you can say this is the best part of the team, since the Clippers still have Kaman.  However, that brings up entirely other issues.  Camby, currently is averaging 12.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal, and 2.6 blocks on 50% shooting.  These are pretty average stats for Camby, who seems to thrive better at the C position.  Kaman, on the other hand, averaged 15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 1.9 assist, and 2.8 blocks on a team without Elton Brand.  This season, he's averaging 13.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.9 blocks, playing next to Marcus Camby, we can't compare his stats from two years ago as last season was arguably his breakout season, and since he was injured before the trade for Randolph we can't really say a whole lot about that either.  Kaman has shown that he's got a decent scoring touch and is a solid rebounder and plays hard defense.  Camby still has some legs left, so while he's not playing significantly better than his DPOY form, he's not playing significanlty worse either.  So in terms of production, it's a wash.

If we look at the bench, from last year we would have had; Dan Dickau, Quintin Ross, Tim Thomas, Al Thornton, and Josh Powell.  Of course, Thornton and Thomas slid in and out of the starting lineup at will because of Brand's injury, so their numbers are likely somewhat inflated for reserves.  This year, we're looking at reserves of; Jason Hart, Mardy Collins, Ricky Davis, Brian Skinner, Chris Kaman; of course Paul Davis, Mike Taylor, and others are making an impact, but lets say these are the primary reserves.  Kaman coming off the bench would be a big plus to this year's squad, however, I'd say that's a wash with Thomas and Thronton, Ricky Davis has always been somewhat streaky, but when he shoots well he's very lethal, so we'll have him give the edge to the rest of the bench.

So if we were to pan it out:

PG: 2007-2008<2008-2009

SG: 2007-2008<2008-2009

SF: 2007-2008>2008-2009

PF: 2007-2008=2008-2009

C: 2007-2008=2008-2009

Bench: 2007-2008<2008-2009

So it seems like the 2008-2009 squad should win 3-1-2 right?  Well, the problem I think lies within the roster deficiencies.  Arguably the amount of chemistry within the team is different.  Yes, the current Clippers comprise of completely new players save maybe Chris Kaman, Al Thornton, and Paul Davis, however, I think the problem goes beyond that.

Issue #1: Baron Davis and Mike Dunleavy Sr.

Mike Dunleavy is renown as a coach who likes to micromanage, Baron Davis is renown as a PG who clashes with these kinds of coaches (see Byron Scott).  Baron is the kind of player that needs freedom to play his best game, of course, that often entails volume shooting, which attributes to his 30% shooting percentage, something that would likely drive Coach Dunleavy crazy.  While there hasn't been any media news regarding dissatisfaction on either side, I can't imagine they have the peachiest relationship as a coach and player.  Furthermore, I have to question Baron Davis's desire to win.  His reasoning for leaving for LA has always seemed to be wanting to be in LA and a long-term contract, which is fine, but it doesn't make sense, at least if he wants to win a championship.  Yes, there was the whole Elton Brand issue, but given Baron's on and off court antics, it's really just hard to say.

Issue #2: Zach Randolph and Al Thornton

I'm sure playing on the court with one offensive black hole is hard enough, add a second to the floor?  Ouch.  I don't know that they can rely entirely on Marcus Camby's offensive rebounding when Randolph and Thorton are inclined to just chuck from wherever they catch the ball.  Limited ball movement means fewer options on offense, which means an offense that is easier to read, which means stagnant offense, which means more losses. 

Issue #3: Zach Randolph and Chris Kaman

Z-Bo has to be the only 20-10 guy that doesn't help his team win games, it's been said before by others, so I'm saying it again now.  To me, Chris Kaman's game is similar to Eddy Curry's, the primary difference being that Chris Kaman hustles and plays defense.  However, they're both big bodies in the paint, solid rebounders, post scorers, and don't really pass all that well.  I can't help but think that when Kaman gets back, should he share floor time with Randolph they'll become the 2007-2008 Knicks frontcourt with some shot-blocking.

Based on these three major issues, without even getting into problems like Ricky Davis, I think the team has actually taken a step back, maybe a small one, maybe more laterally then backwards, but definitely anything but a step forward.  I was confused by the Marcus Camby trade, I was even more confused by the Zach Randolph trade, all I have to say, is that this team is just confusing as heck.  

Upgrade for OKC?

I was reading through Yahoo! BDL's preview of the OKC Thunder, and two glaring weaknesses that could be construed are PG and C slots, granted you could argue that every position not currently played by Kevin Durant is weak. Some would argue the SG slot if you consider Russell Westbrook a PG type player, something of a defensive minded 1, kind of like Rajon Rondo, however, it could also be argued, as Zorgon from Blue Blitz points out, that Westbrook might be better suited at a 2 slot than the 1 (see item 9). As much as we try to talk ourselves into believing that Robert Swift is not a bust, the fact that you oftentimes have to start Nick Collison at center leads me to believe that hte center position is weak. Here's my call, and if you disagree, you disagree, but I think it gives the Thunder a legitimate shot.

Send Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith to Charlotte for Raymond Felton and Nazr Mohammed.

While I mentioned that sending Wilcox and Wilkins to Golden State for Al Harrington seemed like a good idea, to more than just me, beyond purely financial reasons, Al Harrington doesn't really address a whole lot of the problems that OKC beyond maybe perimeter shooting. Deal breaker? Well in this one it would definitely have to be Nazr Mohammed's $18 million contract over the next 3 years, but given the roster construction of the current roster, I don't see that it's that big of deal, OKC develops over the next couple of years (which they will need to develop) and Mohammed becomes another expiring contract that Sam Presti can magically turn into some trade exception or 5 draft picks, all first round.

Ok, all joking aside let's look at how this works out. We have Russell Westbrook develop as a defensive minded SG, a defensive stopper, something akin to Raja Bell, and then we start Raymond Felton at the PG. For all our woes about Felton, he's a solid point, just a little overshadowed by his draft class, you know, like by Deron Williams and Chris Paul. However, Felton I believe is a major upgrade and I believe will definitely help facilitate an offense that is ridiculously stagnant. Furthermore, with Westbrook sliding into a 2 slot Durant can move to where we all believe he will be better suited playing, at SF. By trading off Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith, the PF slot platoon is also cleared and you have fewer people playing out of position. For the moment I'd startNick Collison and have Jeff Green kind of work his way in off the bench. While Nazr Mohammed isn't exactly the most sexy name in terms of centers, he's shown he can start. After being traded to Charlotte for Primoz Brezec and Walter Hermann, Mohammed started for a bit with Emeka Okafor sliding over to the PF slot. He averaged 17pts, 9.4rbds, 0.8 blcks, and 0.8 stls in 5 games on 74.1% shooting. Okafor didn't do horribly either, posting 14.4 ppg and 11 rpg during that same stint, then, to the confusion of many fantasy owners, Mohammed was abruptly benched. However, that I believe is enough of a glimpse to show that Mohammed can make himself effective as a starter. Regardless of any reservations you might have about him, he is at worst serviceable, and in my opinion a significant upgrade over Swift and Petro. The depth chart ends up looking something like this:

PG- Raymond Felton, Earl Watson

SG- Russell Westbrook, Damien Wilkins

SF- Kevin Durant, Desmond Mason

PF- Nick Collison, Jeff Green, Steven Hill

C- Nazr Mohammed, Robert Swift, Johan Petro

Not great by any means but an upgrade to what they have now.

I don't think Larry Brown would've lobbied so hard to draft DJ Augustin that high if he was just going to be a backup to Raymond Felton, that pick could've been much better spent on something else. Which leads us to conjecture that Raymond Felton is not the Bobcats' PG of the future, aka Larry Brown doesn't really like him. From all the reports I've read, Larry Brown doesn't really like anyone on the team, except maybe Jared Dudley. So the Bobcats add to their frontcourt depth, and bolster the PF slot at least a little which I think needed the most work. Worst case scenario, perhaps Gerald Wallace and Joe Smith can be packaged together to make another trade, either way, they get cap flexibility and an improved roster in the frontcourt, which is what they're looking for. Personally, I'd start Wilcox and then work Joe Smith into the rotation allowing both to see some time at center should Brown decide to run a smaller lineup, this also allows Sean May a little more time to fully recover and perhaps become the player he's supposed to be, gives Alexis Ajinca some time to develop, keep Emeka Okafor where he is most effective, in the paint, and keep Gerald Wallace where he won't get concussions, at SF. This creates a lineup that looks something I think, like:

PG- DJ Augustin

SG- Jason Richardson, Matt Carroll, Shannon Brown

SF- Gerald Wallace, Jared Dudley, Adam Morrison

PF- Chris Wilcox, Joe Smith, Sean May

C- Emeka Okafor, Alexic Ajinca

It does leave the Bobcats a little thin at the PG slot, but I think you can package something to get a backup PG of some sort. Though I supppose good ones are hard to come by, maybe tack John Lucas III onto the trade for a draft pick? Anyway, this is the brunt of it, I think maybe it works? It doesn't make either team a contender right away, but it definitely is an upgrade, I think.

Season Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

Finally, we're done after this, and right before start of the season too.

Starting 5:

PG- Russell Westbrook

SG- Kevin Durant

SF- Jeff Green

PF- Chris Wilcox

C- Nick Collison

Off the bench

Guards: Earl Watson, Damien Wilkins, Kyle Weaver

Forwards: Desmond Mason, Joe Smith, DJ White

Centers: Robert Swift, Johan Petro

I have to cringe every time I think about this team, I really do. I went to school in Seattle, and while the Sonics sucked, they at least had the heydays of The Glove tossing up alley-oops to The Rain Man, and Detlef Schremph, and Sam Perkins jacking up 3s at the end of the 4th quarter. They were a team that sucked, with history. Now, they're just a team that sucks. Ok, ok, so maybe I'm not being fair, I'm not considering everything that happened and the legislation and the whole Key Arena scenario and schmo that Howard Schultz is for selling the team in the first place. Alright I'm going to try to be more objective now and not be too abrasive on the Oklahoma City fans out there, but honestly speaking, there's not much in store for them out there, especially this season.

Besides both having coached under Greg Popovich, PJ Carlesimo shares another thing outside of being defensive minded with Mike Brown, that is, they both run the same offensive sets, in essence, have your PG bring up the ball, and give it to your best player. Mike Brown got lucky with this one, because his best player is LeBron James. As great as Kevin Durant is and/or may be, he's no LeBron James. Considering that Durant is only 20, I see a possibility of Durant developing into a trigger happy gunner that is horribly inefficient on the floor, maybe I'm just pessimistic, but it's how he's being taught to play. Seriously, the only time I've seen this team "dominate" was when Durant decided to suit up for a Summer League game. Wilcox and Collison are solid players, but when they're your 2nd and 3rd most effective players on the floor, then I think you're in trouble. Collison to me is like those hustle player that goes for the boards and just does the dirty work, like a... white Udonis Haslem. Wilcox is basically like a more-effective Ronny Turiaf, hair and all, to me something an energy guy, he just scores a bit to go along with it. Jeff Green has shown flashes of great play, but his game is also still raw and unrefined, it's gonna take some time for him to get into it. Damien Wilkins has shown streaks of being able to take the ball to the hole, and has played well during the preseason, I might remind you he played exceptionally well at the beginning of last season before abruptly disappearing from the face of the planet. Russell Westbrook is untested and was drafted more for his defensive abilities so anything he does contribute on the offensive end would be a plus, whereas Earl Watson, well, no one's ever really been sure what to make of Earl Watson, but since Luke Ridnour's gone, I guess that makes him the point man until Westbrook comes of age or if Carlesimo starts his rookie, the backup.

Desmond Mason was brought in as a sort of marketing thing since he's from OKC, and Joe Smith is serviceable but also a non-factor on defense. Either one could snag a starting spot I suppose if things don't work out with Green and Smith outplays either Collison, Wilcox, or the both of them. Finally, if we look at the center rotation, we have Robert Swift, who hasn't been healthy enough to show to us that he really is in fact, bad, and Johan Petro who has shown us that he's somewhat worse than not good, Sene has been relegated to D-League because he's that much worse than Petro, and Ibaka will stay in Europe, because... he's not ready for the NBA? Not really sure about that. Seriously though, when a team has 2 7-foot center eligible players and is forced to start Nick Collison at the 5, not a good sign. So my call on Robert Swift, bust. I'm not going to touch the tatoos and the emo getup.

Season Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

Starting 5:

PG- Mike Conley

SG- OJ Mayo

SF- Rudy Gay

PF- Hakim Warrick

C- Darko Milicic

Off the bench

Guards: Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton, Marko Jaric

Forwards: Darrell Arthur, Greg Buckner, Quinton Ross, Antoine Walker, Brent Petaway

Centers: Marc Gasol, Hamed Haddadi

The Grizzlies have been something of the laughing stock of the NBA for a while now, well, now until OKC decided to call their team the Thunder. They will be most well known now for ensuring Lakers title contention by trading Pau Gasol away for Kwame Brown's expiring contract, Javaris Crittenton, the rights to Marc Gasol, and Aaron McKie. Meaning all they have left now, is Javaris Crittenton, Marc Gasol, and cap space. There's a lot of talent on this team, I'm a Rudy Gay fan, despite the fact that his UConn Huskies defeated Brandon Roy's UW Huskies in the NCAA tournament (I'm a UW Alum). The biggest question is if Rudy Gay can step it up to the next level and really carry a team. Sophomore Mike Conley seems to have won the starting spot, and despite the injuries that plagued him last season, I like the numbers that he can put up. He won't be All-Star caliber, but he's serviceable and what I consider an above average starting point, you certainly could do a lot worse.

From there, everything sort of curtails into potential and hopes that that potential is realized. Darko has pretty much been deemed a draft bust, more because expectations I think were too high than that he's actually that bad. He's a serviceable player, just don't expect 20-10 from him night in and night out. Antoine Walker, well, is Antoine Walker, he takes up space and a lot of cap space, similar to Marko Jaric, except he doesn't bring as much to the floor, or a supermodel girlfriend to the area. Anyways, in terms of basketball, Marc Gasol and OJ Mayo have shown they can play, but if that carries over consistently into the regular season remains yet to be seen. All we've seen thusfar is play from Euroleague, NCAA, and the preseason (in the case of Marc Gasol, yes the Olympics as well). Marc Gasol hopefully can pan out to be almost as good as his brother, and man the middle. OJ Mayo, well, they were willing to throw Mike Miller into a package for him, which is really saying a lot about how much they like him. Worse case scenario he turns into a DeShawn Stevenson, actually, that's pretty bad. Hamed Haddaddi will get his taste of NBA action, after being cleared by US Customs to come over from Iran, he looked good in his league, but again, it's a matter of how much of his game is lost in translation.

Potential and upside team yet once again. They've been that for a while. When will they realize that potential? Who knows?

Season Preview: Sacramento Kings

I'm really not sure why, but I keep forgetting that this team exists.  Fortunately, today, I remembered that they're there.  Here we go:

Starting 5:

PG- Beno Udrih

SG- Kevin Martin

SF- Francisco Garcia

PF- Mikki Moore

C- Brad Miller

Off the bench

Guards: Bobby Jackson, Quincy Douby, Bobby Brown

Forwards: John Salmons, Bobby Jones, Donte Greene, Kenny Thomas, Shelden Williams

Centers: Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson

When you take a second look at this team, it actually doesn't really look all that bad.  I mean, okay, you're starting Mikki Moore, things could be more ideal than that, but still it's not horrible.  Kevin Martin is a legitimate All-Star caliber talent (some say the real "Blue Light Special"), and I really like Francisco Garcia and John Salmons.  With Ron Artest and Mike Bibby now both gone, I look for Salmons and Garcia to pick up a lot of the slack.  Udrih was a pleasant surprise, and has earned a starting spot.  He's no stud that's going to light up the floor with brilliance, but he's above-average, which is harder to find than one might think in a point guard.  All in all, the team doesn't look half-bad.

That being said, it doesn't really look half-good either.  I think this team is similar to Indiana, in that it has players that everyone likes, but it's just a really average team.  Spencer Hawes still needs to find his game, Kenny Thomas needs to get off the books, and I'm not really sure what to make of Donte Greene yet.  Sure he scored 41 at a Summer League game, but obviously that wasn't enough for Houston to want to keep him.  Bobby Jackson is a solid backup, and I'm a big Bobby Jones fan, maybe it's because he's from UW.  That being said, I can't say I know how much to make of this team, they're solid, but not exceptional, which is what you have to be nowadays in the West to get anywhere.  So I'll stand by my intial gut reaction kind of assessment:  The Indiana Pacers of the West.

35-47

Season Preview: Golden State Warriors

I don't dislike the Warriors, in fact, they're the closest team that I can go watch, so I have a slight personal vested interest, sort of. I'm not a fan either though, however, objectively, I can't say they'll be very good this year.

Starting 5:
PG- Monta Ellis
SG- Stephen Jackson
SF- Corey Maggette
PF- Al Harrington
C- Andris Biedrins

Off the bench
Guards: Marcus Williams, CJ Watson, Dan Dickau, DeMarcus Nelson
Forwards: Marco Bellinelli, Kelenna Azubuike, Anthony Randolph, Brandon Wright, Anthony Morrow, Ronny Turiaf
Centers: None

Technically, Harrington and Turiaf would likely split time at the 5 with Biedrins, given how Nellie runs his small ball lineups. I wouldn't be surprised to see Randolph and/or Wright get playing time there too. The season hasn't even started and it's already been ruined for most Warriors fans, everything went downhill when Baron Davis opted out and fled south to his favored hometown of LA to join the Clippers. The features of this year's Warriors will be the same as those of previous years; minimal defense, lots of running. All this of course less Baron Davis and Monta Ellis.

It hurts that Ellis is out for so long, and from what I hear, his injury is not a quick recovery, he could very well be rehabbing for the better part of the season. Much of the onus of scoring and production now fall upon new acquisition Corey Maggette and captain Stephen Jackson. Al Harrington also will now have a chance to prove himself worth something, maybe that'll get him traded or something, if that's what he wants. Azubuike and Bellinelli look to fill the void left by reserves Barnes and Pietrus, which some might consider an upgrade. I hope that Nellie opts to develop his younger players more. Ronny Turiaf was a solid, but expensive addition to help mitigate the post and assist Biedrins on the glass, I think they can do better.

Playoffs unfortunately are well out of the picture. Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette will be interesting playing next to each other, but all in all everything remains the same, minus the beard. Hopefully Marcus Williams or CJ Watson can really step it up.

38-44.

Season Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves

Continuing onward...

Starting 5:
PG- Randy Foye
SG- Mike Miller
SF- Corey Brewer
PF- Kevin Love
C- Al Jefferson

Off the bench
Guards: Sebastian Telfair, Rashad McCants, Blake Ahearn, Rodney Carney
Forwards: Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, Krik Snyder
Center: Mark Madsen, Calvin Booth, Rafael Araujo

The T'Wolves are another team that made a major acquisition in the off-season. I meant the steal that was in essence Mike Miller for Antoine Walker and Marko Jaric, that and the ugliness of Brian Cardinal's contract, but that aside, it was a steal. Granted the trade was highlighted around the rookie swap of Love and Mayo, but the fact that Kevin McHale could squeeze a solid veteran player like Mike Miller out of it was big. I only have two problems with it. First, Mike Miller needs to be on a win-now team. Second, the T'Wolves are not a win-now team.

They have a lot of talent, but they need to continue to develop Al Jefferson. As good as Kevin Love is, he isn't what's going to carry this team into the playoffs, at least not this coming season. Mike Miller needs to mesh, but by the the time this team is ready, it may already be too late. Randy Foye needs to live up to expectations, and hope that his injury doesn't hinder him too much, and that he's at least as good as Brandon Roy, who he was traded for on draft night. There are too many what ifs. Craig Smith are Ryan Gomes look to be solid role players, but become nothing more than severely undersized power forwards, and as much as I like them, I wouldn't play them extensively except in emergency situations.

Certainly they're a better looking team, however, as much as people rave about Kevin Love, I cannot really see an effective co-existence of him and Al Jefferson. To me, they're too identical. It's not that they'll cannibalize each other's stats, but my concern is more at the defensive end, where teams can use size, among other things to exploit this matchup. I have to see more Love play, but he is small for a PF, and big bodied ones might take advantage of that. Additionally, Jefferson has struggled all season last year at the center position, the addition of Love helps him because... he keeps playing at center? It could end up working out, Jefferson could learn to fill the center role, however, they'll be sorely pressed when manned against a larger team like Toronto or Portland.

32-50. No post season.

Season Preview: Denver Nuggets

As I mentioned yesterday, I don't know that AI will stay in Denver, if he's not dealt this season, it's likely he won't find any sort of extension coming up and will have to take a pay cut in the lucrative free agency. However, regardless of Iverson's playing possibilities the fact of the matter is, that now, he remains in Denver, and so he figures into how this squad is going to play.

Denver Nuggets

Starting 5:
PG- Anthony Carter
SG- Allen Iverson
SF- Carmelo Anthony
PF- Kenyon Martin
C- Nene Hilario

Off the bench
Guards: JR Smith, Chucky Atkins, Ruben Patterson, Smush Parker, Mateen Cleaves
Forwards: Linas Kleiza, Renaldo Balkman, Nick Fazekas
Centers: Steven Hunter, Chris Anderson

Wait, wait, wait... That's right, I did say Smush Parker and Ruben Patterson. Denver has once again said that its defense is a problem. They hope to once again focus again on improving their defense. Patterson and Parker are here on make-good contracts, meaning, they're not really signed yet. However, they are playing in training camp. Patterson, who was supposed to be a "Kobe-stopper" adds some defensive tenacity in the backcourt, something that Denver has always lacked. While many people believe that Denver's defense went out the door with the delivery of Marcus Camby into the laps of the Clippers, the Nuggets writer at Pickaxe and Roll tell us a different story. I'm a fan of Camby, but I don't really mind Nene either. Kenyon Martin has still proven he can be an effective defensive stopper as well, despite having slowed down with age and knee surguries. The more I think about it, hoping for Nene to be healthy isn't much different from hoping Camby would be healthy for more than 70 games in a season. What the loss of Camby and Najera has done though, is gutted any frontcourt depth that this team had before. Likely we'll be seeing Balkman and Anderson get a lot of playing time should either Martin or Nene become injured, and they likely will be the key reserves in terms of big men.

The concerted defensive effort though will have to begin with the face of the franchise, that is Carmelo Anthony. If Melo can motivate his teammates with the fire he had in the Olympics, then perhaps this club will have something going. Scoring wise, they haven't lost a whole lot as Melo and Allen Iverson are both still on the roster. George Karl has mentioned that should he develop, JR Smith could find a spot in the starting lineup sliding Iverson over to the PG position. While that's not ideal for Iverson, it's not an idea that I'd be completely against, especially since he's playing next to such an effective scorer like Melo. Linas Klieza, after his impressive play in the summer for Lithuania in the Olympics, also has to really step up. He'll be the key sixth man should Smith take over as a starter and likely a key reserve regardless. He's the spark plug off the bench and I think he still has a little to prove in that he's worth more than Ron Artest (as he was the deal-breaker in a possible Artest trade last season).

The reason Iverson starting as a PG works for me is because the alternatives, while serviceable, aren't really great. Currently they'll continue to start Anthony Carter, who while serviceable, has not been outstanding. Chucky Atkins just had surgery and is injury-plagued, and like won't return to playing for a while let alone back in game shape. Smush Parker is... well Smush Parker. He has a shot at cracking the rotation, but there was a reason that he was cut from 2 different teams in the last two seasons. There still is a shot however, though, that he might have cleaned up his act and gotten his game together. Conditioning I believe has always been an issue for him.

Update: Apparently Smush Parker is considered one of the top prospects for this year's D-League draft.

Season Preview: Los Angeles Clippers

I'll likely throw in an interruption to this sometime soon. It'll likely be another rant and potential trade option. Just giving you the heads up.

Los Angeles Clippers

Starting 5:
PG- Baron Davis
SG- Cuttino Mobley
SF- Al Thornton
PF- Marcus Camby
C- Chris Kaman

Off the Bench
Guards: Eric Gordon, Jason Hart, Mike Taylor, Dontell Jefferson
Forwards: Tim Thomas, Ricky Davis, Steve Novak
Centers: Brian Skinner, Paul Davis, DeAndre Jordan

Oh yeah, the other LA team. Two things stand out to me when I take a first glance at this roster, they have a lot of rookies (5) and they have a lot of centers (also 5). Clippers were in the news a lot as they managed to swipe Baron Davis from upstate and bring him down from Oakland and the Golden State Warriors, then effectively have the 76ers swipe Elton Brand away from them. In a move of desperation, they managed to land Marcus Camby for cap relief and a conditional 2nd round pick (basically nothing), and also signed Heat castoffs Ricky Davis and Jason Williams (who subsequently retired). Oh yes, also as recent news, they signed Paul Davis. I have a hunch they did this just to get three Davises on the roster. Now they just need to trade for Dale Davis and Big Baby Glen and they'll have a complete set!

Ok, ok, all joking aside, the roster is another one of those, "looks great on paper" aka "I would play with it on my PlayStation (or XBox or whatever)" rosters. One major concern is firstly, will Baron Davis replicate another 82 game healthy season? Second is can Baron Davis play under a micromanager like Mike Dunleavy Sr.? Things are sort of pointing to no for me. Since Nelly allows his players free reign on the court in Golden State, Baron has been kind of allowed to just "do his thing" for a while. However, if we look back one team prior, Baron had problems with Byron Scott on the Hornets. He's something of a free spirit, and the fact that Elton Brand would no longer be on the team not bothering him has also showed that he only really wanted two things out of this deal: guaranteed money on a longer contract (5 years, $65 mil) and to be in LA (his hometown), hence the Clippers. Big picture wise, he doesn't care about winning. That being said, when he's on the floor, he'll likely contribute in a lot of the ways he normally does, exploding to the basket and chucking up hordes of horrendous shots. Given that you have a rebounding frontcourt of Marcus Camby (13.1 rpg last season, 2.9 offensive boards) and Chris Kaman (12.7 rpg last season, 3.1 offensive boards) that's not a horrible prospect. However, I expect for him and coach Dunleavy to butt heads and I don't really anticipate Davis to play with much fire now that he has what he wants (money and proximity to Hollywood).

While I anticipate a spike in the offensive rebounding and putback buckets that both Camby and Kaman will be getting, the offense likely won't run through them very frequently what with the blackhole tendencies of Al Thornton and Ricky Davis. Granted having proficient rebounders on the glass like Camby and Kaman will help, the strategy of chucking up bad shots from the perimeters and hoping that you get the putback only really works in pickup games at the park. Eric Gordon hurt himself before we could really get a look at how well he really plays, but looks to be something of a perimeter threat. Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas are the reigning vets now in the system, and while serviceable, aren't anything special. All in all it's not a bad looking team, but I really don't see them getting it together anytime soon, hopefully they do, but I could be wrong. I'm still not entirely sold on the Kaman/Camby frontcourt though theoretically it should work.

Best case maybe break even, so maybe 41 wins, which is an improvement, but not enough to get them out of the lottery and into the playoffs.

Season Preview: Dallas Mavericks

So I'm going to be more sparing with the pics, because frankly, they're kind of a pain in the butt to put in. Onwards!

Starting 5:
PG- Jason Kidd
SG- Jerry Stackhouse
SF- Josh Howard
PF- Dirk Nowitzki
C- Erick Dampier

Off the Bench
Guards: Jose Juan Barea, Jason Terry, Eddie Jones
Forwards: Devean George, Brandon Bass, Gerald Green, James Singleton, Antoine Wright
Centers: DeSagana Diop

The more I think about it the more Dallas looks like something of a Washington Wizards of the West. The exception being that their star players aren't hurt as often, which also means, what they have doesn't work. Talent-wise I think the Mavs are a decent regular season team, but they don't have any sustainability through hard fought playoff series. Dirk Nowitzki has shown that he doesn't have what it takes to carry his team and while Terry and Howard are decent, they're not going to carry the load either. It's like playing with 3 second-option scorers. Granted Nowtizki would be a crazy 2nd option, but still, I think you get the point. All-in-all the team looks to be about the same.

The more we reflect on what was in essence Jason Kidd for Devin Harris straight up, the less it looks that appealing. Kidd hasn't really proven himself yet to be the PG that the Mavs are looking for, but of course we can always argue that half a season for a PG to learn a new system and master it is really asking for a lot, even from someone like Jason Kidd. I don't know what Rick Carlisle is going to do, and I'm not sure if it's going to work. There's just a lot of baggage with this team. Let's hope that Jason Kidd looks marginally better than he did last season, in fact, let's hope he looks better than he did at the Olympics. Granted the man is 35, but still, it's a contract year, and he can only get better than last season right? I hope. Oh yes, we can't forget that Josh Howard is sorry, and therefore that will make him a better player. Right. So where does this put this team?

First, Dirk Nowtizki, in my book, is not, and never will be among the top 5 PFs in the league, unless he learns to play a post game going into his 30s. Dirk is a good player, all that size is just wasted though. He's like Lamar Odom with a jumpshot, but doesn't finish as well. Howard is a shooter/slasher, Terry is a shooter, Stackhouse; shooter, George; shooter, Jones; shooter, wait, wait, wait... Ok so all these people are supposed to do something else, but seriously, is there an inside threat in here? Erick Dampier? Wow. To me, if you're desperate enough for interior presence that you'd throw a full MLE at DeSagana Diop then your franchise has some issues. Dallas also remains among the only team still willing to give Gerald Green a chance. Bass and Barea look good, but aside from that, they're really just a middling team, above-average, by enough to get into the playoffs, that's about it.

48-50 win season again, because they're good enough to pull it off, sliding them into the playoffs, not an easy feat in the West. They however, are not good enough to ever get out of the first round.

Season Preview: Phoenix Suns

On with the show!

Starting 5:
PG- Steve Nash
SG- Raja Bell
SF- Grant Hill
PF- Amare Stoudemire
C- Shaquille O'Neal

Off the bench
Guards: Leandro Barbosa, Goran Dragic, Sean Singletary
Forwards: Boris Diaw, Matt Barnes, Alando Tucker, Louis Amundson
Centers: Robin Lopez

There are a couple numbers that are going to be pretty important this year for Phoenix. Those numbers are 35 and 37. Why? Those are the respective ages of Steve Nash and Shaquille O'Neal (and Grant Hill). As time progresses Nash looks like another one of those players that are awesome, but never won a ring. That being said, the addition of coach Terry Porter will indeed be something of a change. The idea is that he does hopefully what Rick Adleman did in Houston, which was leave the defense in place and implement a more efficient offense. In this case, Porter would be wise to retain the effective D'Antoni offense that works so well centered around Nash and Stoudemire, but to add a little more defensive tenacity.

Grant Hill's health is another major unknown, but mitigated somewhat by the addition of Matt Barnes. While Barnes won't necessarily be a defensive solution, should Hill be injured, Barnes would fill in nicely, and perhaps even take the starting spot from Hill eventually. Having played run-and-gun with the Warriors, Barnes shouldn't have much of a problem fitting into the system, and should he do as well as he did two seasons ago, I can see him cracking the rotation very frequently. Nash, Bell, Barbosa, Diaw, and Stoudemire constitute the core of the team since their D'Antoni days, and I look for them to contribute as they always have. Despite Stoudemire having a sprained ankle, I see him to produce even better this season, having a lot of the low-post load taken off him by Shaq, and reportedly in the best shape ever. The biggest question-mark of that core will once again be Diaw, who showed flashes of his former potential during one game against the Spurs in the previous post-season. However, his lack of consistency and effort continually bothers me. Barbosa continues to be the monster scorer off the bench and Nash a countinual source of offensive efficiency in scoring and assists, while also continuing to have a large number of turnovers. Bell will once again be the defensive stopper and 3 pt specialist. I look for Shaq to once again do better in rebounding, and hopefully come into camp in better shape.

The remaining players are somewhat unknown. Goran Dragic is supposed to be the Nash backup and eventual replacement. The Slovenian guard is quick and a good penetrator, don't see much of him passing, his game is similar I think to that of Leandro Barbosa, but he says he's modelling it after Tony Parker. Robin Lopez is a high energy and supposedly defensive specialist of the Stanford twins, which right now to me, makes him a poor man's Anderson Varejao, hair and all.

They'll be competitive, I think they'll get 50 wins maybe, but they won't get very far, the West has just become too competitive.

Season Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

I realized that I don't use enough (any) pictures in my blog, so I'm adding more (some) now. On to the good stuff.

Portland Trail Blazers

Starting 5:
PG- Jerryd Bayless
SG- Brandon Roy
SF- Martell Webster
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge
C- Greg Oden

Off the Bench
Guards: Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez, Sergio Rodriguez
Forwards: Travis Outlaw, Luke Jackson, Ike Diogu
Centers: Joel Przybilla, Channing Frye, Raef Lafrenz

Four words for you; this team is stacked. Seriously, if there is any young team to look for to watch as an upstart it's the Blazers. Maybe I'm just rooting for the Northwest because Clay Bennett stole the Sonics, but seriously, this team is stacked. They were expected to be somewhat disappointing last season after finding out 1st overall pick Greg Oden would be sidelined for the entire season due to knee surgery. However, three important things happened to give Blazers fans hope, and to help them secure a respectable .500 season (something that would've guarnateed them a playoff spot in the East).

First, Brandon Roy emerged as a leader. After winning Rookie of the Year honors, Roy went on to get his first All-Star berth (some would argue stolen from Baron Davis), and has shown himself to be the primary ball handler and scorer for the team. He's shown to be crucial in the clutch with scoring, distributing and most importantly leading the team. He's got stellar averages (19.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.1 spg), ones that easily merit him stardom and he's shown us all why he ought to be the face of the franchise. Additionally, he's only 24, which means what? He'll only get better, scary. As he gains more experience in the league and learns the ins and outs of NBA play and be able to lead his team even better. His transition has been smoother than most other young players of recent years. He's real refreshing to watch, one of the few 4-year NCAA bred talents in a league that's drafting younger and rawer players. I suppose I might have a bias since he's also from my alma mater.

The second thing to really make a big difference was the emergence of LaMarcus Aldridge as a significant post threat. Easily becoming the no 2 scoring option behind Roy, fellow rookie-classmate Aldridge really emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the paint. He averaged 17.8 pts, 7.6 rbds, 1.6 assts, and 1.2 blocks per game last season, both he and Roy had shown hints of greatness the season before, prompting Kevin Pritchard to promptly dump the unpleasant lockerroom presence of Zach Randolph. From the summer workout reports thusfar, Aldridge apparently has built more mass and strength in his upper body and has flashed some moves in practices that have really impressed people, including some impressive handles and a solid jumper. I can't wait.

Finally, I think one of the biggest things was the breakout year and emergence of 6th man Travis Outlaw last season. He averaged 13.3 pts, 4.6 rbds, 1.3 assts, 0.7 stls, and 0.8 blocks per game on 43% shooting. I don't know about you, but I think those are some pretty impressive stats for a guy coming off the bench. His most impressive line coming off of the final game of the season with 24 points, 12 rebounds, and a steal while shooting 42% from the field. He's dynamite, and on any other team, he'd probably be starting. His value is a lot higher than what I think his averages would indicate, as he split time coming off the bench with James Jones, depending on whether or not the Blazers needed the 3pt lift. Now I know that Outlaw has expressed that he wants to be a starter, something that he doesn't really have the skill sets (three point shooting) for right now. It's not that he's not good, it's just that his game doesn't suit the players on the floor if he started. That being said, he's one of the primary scoring options on the floor off the bench, as Rudy Fernandez accomodates himself to the league.

The biggest questions I think will be the contributions of the rookies; Bayless, Fernandez, and Oden (yes, since he didn't play last year he's technically a rookie this year). Bayless and Fernandez are proven scorers from their own respective leagues (NCAA and Spanish league respectively) and just need to adjust to the next level that is the NBA. Bayless is fast and can penetrate, a very good scorer, someone I can see becoming like Allen Iverson or Monta Ellis. The reason he works at the point is because Roy is such a good distributor for a 2 guard. Blake can do most of the ball handling for the reserves. I didn't see much of Rudy in the Olympics but his explosiveness and overall aggressiveness on the floor really impressed me, he and Outlaw I think will be the major sparkplugs off the bench. While Diogu, Przybilla, and Frye (when he's cleared to play after he recovers from surgery) aren't the most impressive reserves in the frontcourt, you could really do a lot worse. For the most part they're serviceable, and get the job done, and they're young, lots of upside, with the exception of maybe Przybilla, who is the oldest member that cracks the rotation, I don't mind lines of 6 pts, 12 rbds, and a block from my backup center though. What makes this team scary in theory is Oden, he could be the missing piece, what's already scary about this team is that Oden really doesn't have to be that good for the Blazers to be successful. I predict something like a 13 pt, 11 rbd, 2 blck average coming out of Oden as he starts to play, but I can see the Oden/Aldridge frontcourt perhaps being the next Robinson/Duncan (that's right, I went there). Oden is big, and if the reports are anywhere near accurate, he spent the entire season last year building muscle, the man was reported to be 235 lbs of muscle, that's 10lbs of extra weight on Dwight Howard. I would love to see that matchup. Regardless, if he can really pull his game together, this team can really become elite. There are rumors of the Blazers also possibly signing Shaun Livingston, who, if he proves to be able to return from his freak injury two years ago, and is able to bring back everything everyone saw in him, will add even more depth to an incredibly deep and talented team.

I see a 50+ win season, I'd say around maybe 56 wins, playoff berths, and possibly surprising us by getting to the second round.

Season Preview: Houston Rockets

You've gotten so used to this that I don't need an intro anymore.

Houston Rockets

Starting 5:
PG- Rafer Alston
SG- Tracy McGrady
SF- Shane Battier
PF- Ron Artest
C- Yao Ming

Off the bench
Guards: Brent Barry, Luther Head, Steve Francis, Aaron Brooks, DJ Strawberry
Forwards: Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, Mike Harris
Centers: Dikembe Mutumbo

This might be the year, the curse of Tracy McGrady might be broken. For those of that don't know, it's simply that every team that McGrady has been on, has never made it past the first round of the playoffs. The closest he's gotten was on Orlando, after blowing a 3-1 series lead to the eventual championship Detroit Pistons. That being said, the addition of Ron Artest was a solid acquisition, on paper at the very least. Everyone and myself have already covered this trade to death when it happened so I won't go into it too much. I see Adleman going with Artest at the 4, he has the strength and defensive tenacity to guard the big guys in the low post, of course, one issue that comes to light and may potentially be a problem is that Artest isn't really much of a rebounder, perhaps he just hasn't had much of an opportunity to, usually playing the 3, we'll see if that pans out, maybe start Shane Battier at the 4? I don't know, for some reason that prospect doesn't sit very well with me.

Regardless of that in adding Artest you add a guy who can score from pretty much anywhere on the court, so you don't have to bank on Rafer Alston getting hot, though if he does improve on last season that'll be an added bonus. It's something of a relief to have a proven scorer given Yao's fragile feet and T-Mac's chronic back. What makes Artest an even better add is that he's a true two-way player, he's mostly known for his defensive tenacity (that and knocking the lights out of fans), so for an already defensively solid team, they get defensively better, and Adleman can just continue to adapt his offense leave the Jeff Van Gundy defense in place. Of course, we always have to be leery of Ron Artest whenever he's not playing basketball, most renown for his rumble and subsequent suspension in the Palace at Detroit, Artest's off-the-court antics and locker-room presence have always been something of a warning sign for most teams. These have had a tendency to carry over into his attitude on the court as well. We'll see if he can get along well enough with Yao and T-Mac and live with playing 3rd fiddle to them. Hopefully he doesn't break the offense.

They haven't resolved the Carl Landry situation yet, but I don't know that that's that big of an issue. I think their team is fine as it is, despite the glut of guards. They're a solid unit, and this team is one of the cases where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. If they can keep up that level of play that got them their record win streak, then I think they'll be a serious threat this year.

Another 50+ win season, I say likewise upwards of 57-58 wins. I'm gonna say 2nd round, just for T-Mac.

Season Preview: Utah Jazz

A continuation of this madness or genius or spare time, however you want to look at it.

Utah Jazz

Starting 5:
PG- Deron Williams
SG- Ronnie Brewer
SF- Andrei Kirilenko
PF - Carlos Boozer
C- Mehmet Okur

Off the Bench
Guards: Brevin Knight, Matt Harpring, Morris Almond, CJ Miles, Ronnie Price
Forwards: Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver
Centers: Kosta Koufos, Jarron Collins

I'm a big fan of Jerry Sloan and how he's run his offense, ever since the Stockton and Malone era. Time and time again though, he's always been thwarted by Phil Jackson. I think this lineup looks solid, it's a physical, athletic team that has size and the ability to keep up with the smaller teams. Hence, these guys kill the Warriors every time. Boozer and Kirilenko are both fast enough to keep up with the smaller guys, and there's nothing a smaller lineup can do to stop them in the paint. Okur is one of those bigs who shoots threes but also has a somewhat underappreciated inside game due to the presence of Carlos Boozer. Easily get you 20-10 on any given night. Deron is a big point guard with great ball handling abilities, the first I think to be compared to "Jason Kidd with a jump shot". No one is really sure how they are going to solve the SG platoon, but I like their options. Brewer is an athletic, high energy guard that has a penchant for coming up with steals. Korver is a solid 3 pt threat. I actually would like to see Morris Almond get a little more love. I mean, granted he played in the D-League, but we're talking about a guy whose best lines include a 51 pt, 3 rbd, 3 asst, 3 stl outing on 51% shooting, a 53 pt, 6 rbd, 2 asst, 2 stl outing on 55% shooting, and a 43 pt, 4 rbd, 1 asst, 1 stl game on 60% shooting. Did I mention that he shot 42%, 42%, and 50% for each of those games from beyond the arc as well? His averages were 25.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.6 apg on 44.6% FG and 35.4% from beyond the arc, not stellar, but hey, they're not bad. Granted he had a lot of turnovers (4, 5, and 4 respectively) this guy can score, and to be honest, the ball won't be in his hands that often, so I like him both as a starter or a spark plug off the bench.

The bench is pretty deep, Millsap is a solid hustle guy, and Korver off the bench as some instant 3 pt offense looks pretty solid too. Rookie Kosta Koufos is supposed to actually be something of a Mehmet Okur 2.0, a big man with range and some nice moves in the low-post. I see him getting better as he eases his way into the league. A lot of their problems has been being able to achieve on the road, furthermore being a very physical team, they get called on a lot of fouls, which ends up being very easy points for the other team. Hopefully they can clean that up a little. Finally, one point is always how happy Kirilenko really is being the 4th option behind Williams, Boozer, and Okur in terms of an offensive threat. If he can live with that, and bring everything into his defensive game, pulling 5 asst, 5 stl, 5 blck lines regularly then the Jazz are in good shape. They're a young team that is already elite.

I can see them easily going to the Finals. A good 56-58 win season. Depending on how the matchups fall, Jerry Sloan could finally get his ring.

Season Preview: San Antonio Spurs

A continuation for those of you that have nothing better to do than read my blog. Hey, if enough people like it, maybe Skeets will notice too. I seriously doubt I'll ever make one of the 10-man rotations anytime soon though.

Starting 5:
PG- Tony Parker
SG- Michael Finley
SF- Bruce Bowen
PF- Tim Duncan
C- Fabricio Oberto

Off the bench
Guards: Manu Ginobili, Roger Mason Jr, Salim Stoudamire, George Hill
Forwards: Ime Udoka, Ian Mahinmi
Centers: Kurt Thomas, Matt Bonner, Anthony Tolliver

We'll see if Popovich decides to keep his rookies (George Hill, Anthony Tolliver, Malik Hairston, and James Gist) at the end of the roster or send them off to Austin to play in the D-League. Tack onto that the three recent call ups that the Spurs made from the D-League (Devin Green, Desmon Farmer, and Darryl Watkins) the Spurs roster looks somewhat bloated at the moment. It's understandable as their biggest weakness was exploited last season in a grueling series against New Orleans and then Los Angeles (Lakers not Clippers); they're getting old. If we look at the proposed 15 man roster I threw up, 9 of them are over 30 (Bowen, Duncan, Ginobili, Finley, Horry, Udoka, Thomas, Oberto, Vaughn), and at least 7 of the 9 (so maybe everyone but Vaughn and potentially Horry) are a major part of the rotation, including 4 of the 5 starters (everyone except Tony Parker). They haven't lost any significant pieces (Brent Barry I don't think was that significant), but they haven't gotten significantly better either, while Roger Mason is an upgrade over Jacque Vaughn and Damon Stoudamire, resigning Michael Finley and Kurt Thomas leaves them in the same place if not a worse off position than before, as they're both at the point where they're not getting one year better, just one year older. Ime Udoka ultimately did not turn out to be the Bruce Bowen replacement that they desperately needed, and so they'll look to some youth to bolster their roster.

Of the D-Leaguers Desmon Farmer shows the most promise, having averaged 24.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.1 assists on the Rio Grande Valley Vipers. With Ginobili out for a bit, at least the beginning of the season, after reaggravating his ankle during the Olympics, they'll need some backup at the 2 guard spot, and no, Michael Finley is not going to play 48 minutes. I think Popovich is hoping that Farmer makes the transition from D-League as well as Warriors swingman Kelenna Azubuike did. Devin Green played well enough apparently in Summer League to warrant a second look at training camp, averaging 10.3 points per game over Summer League. Apparently, he's played a bit in Italy too. George Hill was rather disappointing in Las Vegas Summer League, averaging only 8 points and 3 assists per game with 3 turnovers, but surprisingly a good 7 rebounds per game as well. Granted, it's the summer league, and we don't want to read too much into it, but they say he plays well at both ends of the court, something that the Spurs value highly. Right now most of the young talent on the Spurs can be summed up with the two words "potential" and "upside", which means, very low impact right now. Hopefully the vets have enough gas to keep going, and hopefully Ginobili is able to fully recover after his ankle surgery.

They're getting old and they're starting to slip, but that doesn't keep them from being a perennial contender. Tim Duncan can still eke out his 20 pt, 10 rbd, 5 asst, 4 blck games and Parker can still burn 90% of the point guards in the league. Solid 53-55 win season, easily into playoffs, and I'd say ousted anywhere between second round and Western Conference Finals.

UPDATE: So the Spurs signed Salim Stoudamire, which is a good add, he's a solid shooter kind of stagnating on the bench of a 3-happy Atlanta Hawks what with Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson in the lineup. He's supposed to be the Brent Barry/Robert Horry replacement and is a solid addition in the event that Roger Mason's shooting doesn't pan out as well as they'd like.

UPDATE: The internet likes me! They really do! Seriously, I really appreciate the guys that are reading this and all the feedback. So I took a look at the forum and I noticed someone asking why I didn't mention Ian Mahinmi, and to be honest, I hadn't really paid a lot of attention, so I didn't think he was that big. However, in doing a little more research I think he'd be a solid addition to the club, he apparently has made significant strides offensively and did fairly well in his previous season with the D-League (17.1 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.7 bpg). Still I stand by the whole "upside" and "potential" statement. Spurs can only hope to make steals off of the free agency and hope that their young prospects pan out, they really have no tradeable assets.