The Exit Roll: Charlotte Bobcats

I apologize for those people that are looking to read my witty exposition and my failure to write for you.  Anyways, so here is my next piece, or set of pieces.  I'm looking at the teams that got ousted from the first round of the playoffs and how I think they can change it.  Let's go:

The Charlotte Bobcats.  Well, they did a lot better than people thought they would.  I personally think that they got bad luck drawing the Magic for the first round.  I really think that they had a shot if they drew Boston, but instead, they had to face Dwight Howard and a rather embarrassing first round sweep as their franchise playoff debut.  So going into this post season, how can they get better?  Well, let's start at the logical place, what do they have now?

Head Coach: Larry Brown
PG: Raymond Felton, D.J. Augustin
SG: Stephen Jackson, Larry Hughes
SF: Gerald Wallace, Stephen Graham
PF: Boris Diaw, Tyrus Thomas
C: Theo Ratliff, Tyson Chandler
Reserves: Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, Gerald Henderson, Alexis Ajinca

My first reaction to this roster is simply that, I like it.  It's a good lineup full of good players.  However, a slew of "good" players don't make up for the glaring lack of excellent players.  Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson are known for their above-average defense, and if Gerald Wallace weren't so injury prone then I would call him one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and Stephen Jackson, well, he's showing his age.  Boris Diaw, well, he's not consistent, but when he's on, he's a good defender and Tyson Chandler is one of the premier post defenders in the league, but Chandler is also known to be an injury liability.  While I think Jackson and Wallace are decent offensively, the Bobcats don't really have a go-to offensive option.  Most notably they don't have a presence in the post, while Jackson is decent, he's not great and not someone I'd consider go-to down low.  Then, neither are Diaw, Tyrus Thomas, Theo Ratliff, nor Tyson Chandler.  Nazr Mohammed is decent, but I understand the reservation Larry Brown has for giving Mohammed extended minutes, we saw how that worked out in every team Mohammed's been on except San Antonio, and of course, that might have something to do with a little someone named Tim Duncan.

I like the core of Jackson, Wallace, and Chandler, and Gerald Henderson looks to be a good prospect, but they need someone, someone that can put points on the board, and given their age and injury track record, they have to win NOW.  I don't think they can get rid of Diaw, and Larry Hughes is an expiring contract, but to be honest, I can't say they have very attractive tradeable assets.  You figure that with 5 different centers they'd figure out something of a big man rotation, but given who it is, DeSagana Diop, Alexis Ajinca, Nazr Mohammed, and Theo Ratliff, they're not really tradeable.  The obvious upgrades, at least positionally, are PG or PF.  Raymond Felton and Boris Diaw, serviceable, but only if you have some offensive options next to them.  Given Stephen Jackson's underrated passing ability, maybe a score-first point guard (Gilbert Arenas?) or something...  Otherwise, a solid post scorer at PF (Carlos Boozer?).  I don't know that free agency is really an option to be frank, I don't know that they have the cap-space, so it's gotta be a trade, but they have all these bloated contracts: Diaw, Diop, Mohammed, etc...  We'll see how it works.  Hopefully Michael Jordan doesn't call too many of the shots.

Trades in the shadow of the All-Star Game

Okay, so I didn't watch the All-Star Game this year, from all reports it was okay that I didn't. I heard it wasn't really that good. Anyways, I check the boards to find, this massive trade between Washington and Dallas. It's something to ponder. In summary, it's Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and DeShawn Stevenson for Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, James Singleton, and Quinton Ross.

Hm... how does this pan out? Not sure. We know that Washington is on firesale mode, and completely rebuilding, so it's not a bad deal for them, I think all the contracts are expiring, if not, Howard is a decent piece to build around. So the big question is how this works out for Dallas. I think Butler is an upgrade over Howard, but a marginal one, though many might disagree with me given Howard's recent slump. Though he doesn't bring the rebounding that Howard has, the presence of Shawn Marion mitigates the problem slightly. Additionally, Brendan Haywood I think is the clincher. He's somewhat underappreciated as a center since he played for Washington, he's not elite, but he certainly is an upgrade over Erick Dampier and Drew Gooden on the offensive and defensive ends respectively. I think DeShawn Stevenson is also a legitimate backup on the wings. All-in-all, way to capitalize Dallas. I anticipate Butler and Haywood will start immediately, so as soon as they get integrated into Rick Carlisle's system, Dallas becomes that much scarier. Singleton and Ross were pretty expendable so, Dallas gets an A for upgrading needs at starter and adding depth. Both Butler and Marion can shift between the 2 and 3 slots to the 3 and 4 slots, DeShawn Stevenson can play the same positions as Butler, and then adding in Terry and Dirk the wings are covered pretty well, then Dampier serves a suitable backup for Haywood. Score for Dallas.

The 5 Most Confusing Front Offices

Since the season has started, I'm going to do this quick piece on pretty much my overall offseason grades for various front offices. I'm a critical guy, so I'll just go with the five worst. I mean, these confused the heck out of me. These aren't in any particular order, just the order that I come up with in my brain.

1.) Minnesota Timberwolves

To say that this team boggles me is something of an understatement. The first move made was essentially trading Mike Miller and Randy Foye for Ricky Rubio, who, mind you, probably isn't even going to play this season. Even if he did, I don't see him being very spectacular, he's like... Steve Nash without a jumpshot. That was something understandable, as Foye was obviously not a point guard and Sebastian Telfair in a starting gig is just hurting. Great, so T'Wolves go and land one of the premier points in the draft, and then subsequently draft the next premier point in the draft in Johnny Flynn. Either Flynn is expensive Rubio-not-coming-to-America insurance, or something's up. Obviously we were all a little shocked when Sacramento opted for Tyreke Evans over Rubio, and we knew Rubio's stock was quickly dropping and therefore he no longer was super valuable as trade bait because the first 3 teams didn't need him. Then they draft Wayne Ellington, fine, project PG, probably our backup. Rebuilding looks good so far huh? Until we remember that T'Wolves now have no wing players whatsoever. Rashad McCants was traded to Sac, Foye and Miller gone to Washington. So to solve their problems, the T'Wolves decide to trade Craig Smith and Sebastian Telfair, who do they get back? Jason Hart? Wait, they need another PG? I feel really bad for Al Jefferson at this point in time. Deciding to make a splash in free agency, the T'Wolves later decide to sign Ramon Sessions. We so far, have a roster of 4 PGs with one playing overseas. Please do not tell me Sessions is a combo guard. The wings currently are Ryan Gomes and Corey Brewer with no SG to speak of. Somehow then, they manage to pick up Sasha Pavlovic and Damien Wilkins, serviceable but nothing stellar. Essentially, I think they're eventually hoping for either Sessions or Flynn to really make a huge impact and become studs, I mean, if we take everything else away, T'Wolves essentially gave up Foye, Miller, Smith, and Telfair for Sessions, Wilkins, Pavlovic, and I suppose ultimately Flynn. Unless this Rubio gamble pays off and he manages to somehow play with two other starting caliber point guards, or gets traded for some stud on the wings, the PG love from the T'Wolves was confusing as heck, and honestly, doesn't make them better. It overaddresses one need, and doesn't address any others.

2.) Memphis Grizzlies

I'm starting to take this team as seriously as the Harlem Globetrotters. Okay, so first, they trade Darko for Quentin Richardson, understandable, sort of... Then they draft Hasheem Thabeet, which confused me to no end, but I guess that means Marc Gasol isn't good enough? That boggles my mind. The 2nd overall pick isn't something you spend on a simple defensive stopper, 7-feet or nothing, they have Gasol, so I'm not sure how that's going to work. Then they trade Q-Rich for Z-Bo (Zach Randolph). Great... While it solves the problem of interior scoring, the last thing the Grizzlies need is a ballhogging black hole (like OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay). There isn't a single player on the roster at the moment that can be effective not putting the ball in the bucket, and not a single player on the roster who can be effective without the ball in his hands. Then to top it all off the Grizzlies opt to sign the one player that needs the ball in his hands the most, Allen Iverson. I'm sorry, but all the carts from the 3pt shootout won't be enough balls to go around for this team. If you thought AI and Melo on Denver had sticky hands, what about a floor spread of Iverson, Mayo, Gay, and Randolph? Geez. Sure it's an offensive powerhouse, but that's what Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph were supposed to be three years ago, and we all saw how that turned out.

3.) Atlanta Hawks

I understand why the Warriors traded Jamal Crawford, they just wanted to get rid of him, it's kind of a Nellie thing. What I don't understand is why ultimately the Hawks traded for him. It's not that I don't like Crawford, but it's just that he doesn't really fit. The trade ultimately ended up being Speedy Claxton and Acie Law for Jamal Crawford. Claxton and Law probably will see little to no playing time in Nellie-ball, but Crawford apparently is supposed to fill the void of 6th man on the Hawks. While the idea of the shooting from a Jamal Crawford/Joe Johnson backcourt is intriguing, it's fairly redundant. From my perspective, Jamal Crawford is essentially a highly inefficient Joe Johnson, who in and of himself is already pretty inefficient. What this does mean though, is that perhaps the Hawks haven't yet given up on Josh Smith. While this provides a means of flexibility, possibly moving Joe Johnson on occasion to SF, having a backcourt of Bibby, Crawford, Johnson, the concept of Jamal Crawford being a Flip Murray upgrade is a little confusing to me. Why? Simply put, Murray knows his spot, Crawford needs the ball a lot to be effective. If Joe Johnson still gets his touches, Crawford's game is going to have to come at the expense of Williams, Smith, and Horford. I'm not entirely ecstatic about such a prospect. Of course, the Hawks could prove me wrong by having Crawford simply prove me wrong about him, or turn their forwards (Williams, Smith, Horford) into some monstrous offensive rebounding team.

4.) Charlotte Bobcats

I'm sorry, if this team wants me to start taking them seriously (and I bet they could care less if I'm taking them seriously) they have to start considering the implications of their moves. A year after Larry Brown takes over, the Bobcats opted to swap their center Emeka Okafor, for Tyson Chandler. On paper it looks like a wash, Okafor is slightly better offensively and Chandler is a legit 7-footer with stellar defense. What's the problem then? First, on a team that struggles with its offense, replacing an offensive cog with a defensive piece doesn't really make sense. While Chandler is active, a lot of his production came from playing with Chris Paul, production that neither Raymond Felton nor DJ Augustin can help replicate. While I respect the players, Larry Brown essentially has his three primary scoring options shifted to Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, and Raja Bell, not exactly what I'd call explosive. Of course, Larry Brown's recent success has shown that perhaps you don't need a scorer, as seen with the 2004 Detroit Squad. Yet something tells me that Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, and Rasheed Wallace are greater than Wallace, Diaw, and Bell, especially if you consider the support cast of Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace, and Antonio McDyess as compared to Raymond Felton, Tyson Chandler, and DJ Augustin. I don't get it. I really don't. Maybe someone can clue me in.

5.) Milwaukee Bucks

The traded Richard Jefferson for essentially Kurt Thomas (they cut Bowen and Oberto), and then traded for Amir Johnson and then traded Amir Johnson again. Then signed Hakim Warrick and drafted Brandon Jennings. Though it's technically not this offseason, I'm still reeling from the whole extension of the Andrew Bogut. I mean I know he was first overall pick, but really? Is he that good? I know you overpay big men, but the same price tag as Deron Williams and Chris Paul? I'm still not convinced he's anything more than a younger Chris Kaman. With the retention of Kurt Thomas and the signing of Kurt Thomas I'm not entirely convinced that the Bucks are rebuilding, but then again, maybe they are with a core of Brandon Jennings, Luc-Richard Mbah-a-Moute, and Joe Alexander. Of course, that makes me feel bad for Michael Redd. I really don't know. It's like they want to try to covertly go young, so they move towards Mbah-a-Moute and Jennings, but not so you know, so they go keep Ridnour and Redd... Yeah, if that's as confusing to read as it was to write, I think I've done my job.

No more Captain Jack

Stephen Jackson want out of Golden State and will cause havoc unil he is able to be traded. He would of had a lot of trade value if he didn't sign a 3 year, $28 million dollar contract extension last year which leav 4 years and $35 million dollars left on his contract. No team would take on that contract, especially for a 31 year old with a somewhat troubled past and very prone to technical fouls.

In an exhibition gme against the Lakers, Jackson picked up 5 fouls in less than 10 minutes along with a technical. I know these replacement referees are pretty bad, but those 5 fouls didn't come from his aggressive defense on Kobe, but him wanting out of Golden State and causing any kind of trouble he can. He and coach Don Nelson aren't getting along anymore as Nellie suspended Jackson for 2 exhibition games and more will likely to come if Jackson doesn't get traded and continues to plague the Warriors. If the Warriors really want to make it tough on Jackson, they should suspend him for many games in which he will not get paid.

But maybe there is a small chance that somehow Jackson wants to play well along with Monta, Curry, Randolph and Biedrins and start winning games, all this this will easily be forgotten. Winning always cures everything. Will Warriors fans ever get a chance to see winning basketball in the Bay Area anytime soon?

Sucks for Sessions, Sucks for the Knicks

I'm not really sure what the New York Knicks are going for here. Do they really want to win? I grew up in upstate New York so I'm something of a closet Knicks fan, there's still a little hometown loyalty left in me, but because I started following basketball seriously during the end of the Isaiah Thomas-running-the-show era it was something of a fairly difficult pill to swallow. Since then, Donnie Walsh has successfully removed most everyone Isaiah Thomas had brought in (see: Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson, Stephon Marbury, Jerome James, Renaldo Balkman, Zach Randolph, Malik Rose, and Isaiah Thomas) with few exceptions (see: Wilson Chandler, Eddy Curry, and Jarred Jeffries) with a couple of the fan favorites in limbo (see: Nate Robinson and David Lee). From how I see it right now, the only guaranteed contracts come 2010 are Danilo Gallinari, Eddy Curry, and Jared Jeffries, the latter two of which Walsh is working furiously to get off the books. While Walsh has made strides to rectify the debacle that Dolan and Thomas had brought upon themselves and the once respectable Knicks organization, he's done little else to make the team better, to make the team something to believe in, heck, even something that makes the playoffs in a mediocre (but improving) Eastern Conference. While I understand the concept of saving for a big name star in 2010 (one that might not even show up), does surrounding said star (see: LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire) with a slapdash collection of random talent really help? I mean, I like Wilson Chandler, and Danilo Gallinaro is supposed to be a stud, but are we really going to try to play them at the SG and PF spots respectively if the Knicks do land LeBron? Is that enough?

The big free agent name of the 2009 offseason for the Knicks has been Ramon Sessions, and if the reports are to be trusted, then Sessions will not be signing with the Knicks, ouch. I can't say I know enough about Sessions save except some numbers to say that I have a fair grasp of what Sessions can do. I mean, I know that he dropped 20 assists in a meaningless game at the end of another losing Bucks season in 2007. I know that Scott Skiles ended up playing him next to Ridnour as an off guard and his production suffered. I know that he's still young, and has tons of potential and everybody likes him, and I know that he's no longer welcome in Milwaukee, and the only other team courting him, the Clippers, would make him the backup failsafe plan of a questionably motivated Baron Davis. I also know that he has holes in his game, he can't hit an outside shot to save his life, but you know what? Neither can Rajon Rondo, nor Andre Miller, Tony Parker had a questionable jumper until recently, Jason Kidd's jumper's not exactly stellar either. My point is simple, certainly Ramon Sessions is by no means a finished product, I mean, he's only 24, he's not been in the league that long, so he has room to grow, but I think that Sessions is exactly the kind of player that the Knicks needs, and the Knicks are exactly the kind of team that Sessions needs.

Sessions is a young explosive player who has the potential to be an exciting draw for Knicks fans and basketball fans for Donnie Walsh. Paired with the freedom that Mike D'Antoni gives to PGs in his 7-second-or-less offense, Sessions has the potential to really grow into his own. I mean, just look at what D'Antoni was able to do with Chris Duhon, a prototypical NBA backup point guard. Just look at Leandro Barbosa and Steve Nash with and without D'Antoni's offense. Yet Donnie Walsh seems allergic to Sessions based entirely on the fact that he wants years, and Jared Jeffries and Eddy Curry are still on the books. It'll be a pity if Sessions is still a free agent come trade deadline, but it'll be a steal for the Knicks if he is and they can jettison one of Curry's or Jeffries's contract if not both, though I don't know why a talent like Sessions would fall to that far. Some might find it hard to fault Walsh because of the 2010 jackpot in free agency, I mean there's LeBron, Bosh, Wade, Amar'e, Kobe, Joe Johnson, Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, just to name a few. Honestly though, for those teams that haven't made it, does moving from one mediocre team to another mediocre team that pays more really make it worth it to them? If it does, does New York really want that kind of a player? It really depends on what New York wants to do, and I personally want New York to win, it's pointless if you don't play to win. New York is already still one of the most profitable franchises in the league and they're probably at best the second or third worst team in the Eastern Conference. How long will "At least we're better than the Nets and the Grizzlies" really last you? Will Dwayne Wade find the combination of Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari that much better than one of Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley? Will Chris Bosh really think that it'll be better there than with Calderon and Turkoglu? Really? If they're winners why not go play in Cleveland (taking Shaq's paycheck) with LeBron? Or maybe some Western Conference team that's more competitive? Certainly there is the implication of being a marquee player for a larger market, and while Amar'e might want to play once again with D'Antoni, his competitiveness has been questioned and he's now widely regarded as someone who can't take a team the distance.

So save for the future? What's Donnie Walsh going to do if all of the big names balk at playing at New York with a bunch of misfits? Is there anything even moderately appealing to some combination of Larry Hughes, Chris Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Al Harrington, Darko Milicic, Eddy Curry, Jared Jeffries, and possibly David Lee and Nate Robinson? Of which only 4 of whom will be around and only 2 of which will likely play in the 2010-2011 season if all 4 are still around. Knicks need direction, and they have none, "waiting for the 2010 free agency" isn't any more direction than "waiting for a multi-million dollar inheritance/lottery" is a career path. Sessions needs the Knicks, the Knicks need Sessions, do the right thing.

What is with the Wizards' Players? Seriously.

“I told people that it’s a unique situation. It’s one of those situations were this is where teams really have a chance to build their team, when you have injuries like that. It’s a completely different aspect of what it was in San Antonio, but it’s in the same realm of what San Antonio was when you have an injury like they did with David Robinson and they had a chance to get a pick. You have talent with this team with Antawn, Caron, Gilbert, who’s got three all-stars; to have a top-5 pick in the draft is something you don’t expect. So, when you have that kinda talent, it’s just injuries and they didn’t play together all last year, it gives us an opportunity to build something here. When you have a losing record the year before, you can have a chance to bring in different talent, and hopefully we can mesh together and make it happen.”

The above quote was given by newly acquired Washington Wizards Mike Miller. I honestly have no real idea of how he's drawing this comparison between Washington and San Antonio except maybe that their best player was injured. When Robinson got injured, San Antonio was a team featuring a 37 year-old Dominique Wilkins as its top scoring player, featuring some mix of starters among Avery Johnson, Vinny Del Negro, Will Perdue, Carl Herrera, Vernon Maxwell, Greg Anderson, and Monty Williams. Sean Elliot, the third best player on the team, only played 39 games. Despite injuries, Wizards were never without at least one, if not two of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison, the three of which probably outscored the entire 1996-1997 San Antonio team put together. Sure, because of injuries Wizards got a lottery pick (5th), which they promptly traded away for Miller and Foye. So is Miller calling himself Tim Duncan? I don't get it.

Does DeShawn Stevenson know what he's talking about?

I know players are supposed to be confident in their teams, I know they're supposed to say the right things, but making bold promises? That's pretty iffy. When you make a concrete guarantee, you're putting someone up to prove you wrong, especially if you haven't proven anything before. So, the latest of them has been from the Washington Wizards, with DeShawn Stevenson making this bold claim:

"If Gilbert is 70 percent, we're going win a lot of games. If Gilbert is 80 percent, we're going to be No. 1 in the East. If he's 100 percent, we might win a championship."

Obviously the Gilbert being referred to is none other than Wizard's captain Gilbert Arenas, aka Agent Zero. Does Stevenson's assessment of Arenas ring true? I don't know, as he's only played 15 games in the past two seasons, that's right, he's only seen floor time 15 out of the past 164 possible regular season games. While the "percent" that Agent Zero plays at may be arbitrary, Stevenson all but guarantees the Wizards to be at the top of the Eastern Conference. Is that even feasible with Gilbert at 100%? I'm dead serious, I'm sure Washington is a great team, but does having Gilbert Arenas automatically make them better than Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando? Hm.... Well, let's look at the rosters. The Washington Wizards boast a lineup likely of:

PG - Gilbert Arenas, Randy Foye, Javaris Crittenton
SG - Mike Miller, Nick Young, DeShawn Stevenson
SF - Caron Butler, Dominic McGuire
PF - Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche
C - Brendan Haywood, JaVale McGee

Okay, that's pretty impressive, but let's look at matchups:

Cleveland Cavaliers:

PG - Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson
SG - Delonte West, Anthony Parker
SF - LeBron James, Jamario Moon, Jawad Williams
PF - Anderson Varejao, Leon Powe, JJ Hickson
C - Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Boston Celtics:

PG - Rajon Rondo, Eddie House
SG - Ray Allen, Tony Allen
SF - Paul Pierce, Marquis Daniels, Bill Walker
PF - Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine
C - Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace

Orlando Magic:

PG - Jameer Nelson, Anthony Johnson
SG - Vince Carter, JJ Redick
SF - Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes
PF - Rashard Lewis, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson
C - Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat

Now let's assume 2006-2007 performance would be comparable to Gilbert Arenas at 100% and do some quick comparisons:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Gilbert Arenas	2006-07	25	74	73	2942	7.9	18.9	.418	2.5	7.1	.351	7.4	8.8	.844	0.7	3.4	4.1	5.4	1.7	0.2	2.9	3.0	25.8
2	Jameer Nelson	2008-09	26	42	42	1309	7.3	14.6	.503	2.3	5.0	.453	2.4	2.7	.887	0.6	3.4	4.0	6.2	1.4	0.1	2.3	3.4	19.3
3	Rajon Rondo	2008-09	22	80	80	2642	5.2	10.3	.505	0.2	0.7	.313	2.3	3.7	.642	1.4	4.3	5.7	9.0	2.0	0.1	2.8	2.6	13.0
4	Mo Williams	2008-09	26	81	81	2834	6.7	14.3	.467	2.3	5.3	.436	2.6	2.9	.912	0.6	2.9	3.5	4.2	0.9	0.1	2.3	2.7	18.3

Advanced:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Gilbert Arenas	2006-07	25	74	2942	24.0	.565	.484	2.3	11.1	6.6	27.2	2.4	0.3	11.2	31.4	115	111	9.6	1.5	11.1
2	Jameer Nelson	2008-09	26	42	1309	20.6	.612	.580	1.8	10.5	6.2	32.1	2.0	0.2	12.6	23.2	121	103	3.9	2.1	6.0
3	Rajon Rondo	2008-09	22	80	2642	18.8	.543	.514	4.8	13.9	9.6	39.7	3.0	0.3	19.2	19.2	114	101	4.7	5.0	9.7
4	Mo Williams	2008-09	26	81	2834	17.2	.588	.548	2.1	9.4	5.9	20.1	1.3	0.3	12.7	23.4	115	106	5.9	3.6	9.4

Okay, well, in the PG battle, a healthy Gilbert Arenas obviously has the advantage. While Rajon Rondo and Jameer Nelson are still "breaking out" it's hard to imagine that either would mimic the production that Arenas, completely healthy would provide. However, remember, basketball is a team sport, certainly the Wizards would have the advantage if all other positions were a wash. While Williams of the four is the weakest PG performance wise, we also have to remember the roles each has on the team, Rondo and Williams have more facilitator roles whereas Arenas is the go-to guy. Nelson is a little harder to place as he's somewhere between the two.

Let's move on to the off-guard position:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Ray Allen	2008-09	33	79	79	2876	6.2	13.0	.480	2.5	6.1	.409	3.0	3.1	.952	0.8	2.7	3.5	2.7	0.9	0.2	1.7	2.0	17.9
2	Vince Carter	2008-09	32	80	80	2946	7.2	16.4	.437	1.8	4.8	.385	4.1	5.0	.817	0.9	4.1	5.0	4.6	1.0	0.5	2.0	2.9	20.3
3	Mike Miller	2008-09	28	73	47	2356	4.0	8.4	.482	1.3	3.4	.378	1.7	2.3	.732	1.1	6.3	7.4	5.0	0.5	0.5	2.2	2.1	11.0
4	Delonte West	2008-09	25	64	64	2152	4.8	10.4	.457	1.5	3.8	.399	1.5	1.8	.833	0.5	2.9	3.4	3.8	1.6	0.2	1.5	2.1	12.6

Advanced:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Ray Allen	2008-09	33	79	2876	17.3	.624	.575	2.9	8.6	5.9	12.6	1.3	0.4	10.4	20.8	122	106	7.3	3.6	11.0
2	Vince Carter	2008-09	32	80	2946	19.3	.545	.493	3.0	13.8	8.3	23.7	1.5	1.1	9.8	26.8	112	112	5.6	1.8	7.4
3	Mike Miller	2008-09	28	73	2356	13.8	.588	.559	3.5	21.2	12.0	21.6	0.7	1.0	19.1	14.5	112	112	2.8	1.4	4.2
4	Delonte West	2008-09	25	64	2152	14.1	.559	.530	1.8	9.2	5.6	16.6	2.4	0.5	12.0	16.7	114	104	2.9	3.3	6.2

I understand that Mike Miller had his confidence shot last season and was plagued throughout the year by injuries, but even if we took the year before when he was healthy and playing well, the advantage still goes to Orlando in this matchup. Delonte West of course is the defensive presence on the Cavs so obviously he's fairly far down in the pecking order, but he does make a difference. Carter has been playing well despite all the nay-sayers and his age, as has Ray Allen, though Allen has been somewhat less consistent since joining the Celtics, but he is also the third option behind both Pierce and Garnett, so he's not getting a huge number of touches. While Miller adds a lot in other aspects other than scoring, he's also known for not being very good defensively. Definitely not making the difference for me here.

Onwards to the SF position:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Caron Butler	2008-09	28	67	67	2585	6.8	15.1	.453	0.9	2.9	.310	4.8	5.6	.858	1.6	4.1	5.8	4.0	1.5	0.3	2.9	2.3	19.4
2	LeBron James	2008-09	24	81	81	3054	9.3	19.0	.489	1.6	4.5	.344	7.0	9.0	.780	1.2	6.0	7.2	6.9	1.6	1.1	2.8	1.6	27.2
3	Paul Pierce	2008-09	31	81	81	3035	6.4	14.0	.457	1.4	3.6	.391	5.4	6.6	.830	0.7	4.8	5.4	3.5	0.9	0.3	2.7	2.5	19.7
4	Mickael Pietrus	2008-09	26	54	25	1329	4.8	11.5	.413	2.2	6.0	.359	2.1	3.0	.709	1.2	3.6	4.8	1.8	0.8	0.7	1.5	3.4	13.8

Advanced:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Caron Butler	2008-09	28	67	2585	18.8	.552	.482	5.2	13.8	9.4	19.7	2.2	0.6	14.3	25.9	108	113	3.4	1.1	4.4
2	LeBron James	2008-09	24	81	3054	31.7	.591	.530	4.3	19.0	11.9	38.0	2.4	2.4	11.0	33.8	122	99	13.3	6.3	19.6
3	Paul Pierce	2008-09	31	81	3035	17.7	.582	.508	2.4	15.4	9.2	16.3	1.4	0.7	13.8	25.4	112	104	5.4	4.8	10.2
4	Mickael Pietrus	2008-09	26	54	1329	11.6	.538	.507	3.8	10.9	7.5	8.0	1.2	1.3	10.6	18.4	106	104	1.0	2.1	3.0

All of the starting forwards here save Pietrus are All-Stars. However, it's hard to dispute that LeBron would be in the best shape here, simply because he's LeBron. It's hard to argue against one of the best players in the league despite how good both Butler and Pierce are. Advantage here always goes to the Cavs so long as LeBron is healthy and playing.

At the PF slot:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Kevin Garnett	2008-09	32	57	57	1772	8.0	15.0	.531	0.0	0.2	.250	2.3	2.7	.841	1.6	8.3	9.9	2.9	1.3	1.4	1.8	2.6	18.3
2	Antawn Jamison	2008-09	32	81	81	3096	7.8	16.8	.468	1.3	3.7	.351	4.0	5.3	.754	2.3	6.1	8.4	1.8	1.1	0.3	1.5	2.5	20.9
3	Rashard Lewis	2008-09	29	79	79	2859	6.0	13.7	.439	2.8	7.0	.397	2.8	3.4	.836	1.2	4.5	5.7	2.6	1.0	0.6	2.0	2.4	17.6
4	Anderson Varejao	2008-09	26	81	42	2306	4.2	7.9	.536	0.0	0.0	.000	2.4	3.9	.616	2.6	6.5	9.1	1.3	1.2	1.0	1.2	3.7	10.8

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Kevin Garnett	2008-09	32	57	1772	21.2	.563	.532	5.6	26.7	16.6	14.7	1.9	3.1	10.1	23.4	112	98	3.0	4.1	7.0
2	Antawn Jamison	2008-09	32	81	3096	20.6	.549	.507	7.2	20.5	13.7	9.1	1.6	0.7	7.1	25.9	114	113	6.5	1.6	8.1
3	Rashard Lewis	2008-09	29	79	2859	16.8	.580	.540	3.7	13.9	8.9	12.5	1.5	1.3	11.6	22.0	113	103	4.7	4.9	9.6
4	Anderson Varejao	2008-09	26	81	2306	14.6	.565	.536	8.9	20.6	15.0	5.4	1.8	2.3	11.5	14.2	116	100	3.2	4.5	7.7

As well as Antawn Jamison has played, you can't really match the two-way intensity that Kevin Garnett brings to the floor. While his numbers have suffered, you have to realize that he now has Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to carry much of the offensive load on the team for him, so he's not required to do as much. The impact from Garnett is made mostly on the defensive end, and I find that Jamison and Lewis are a wash. Remember that Jamison played this previous year so well partially due to Arenas being out, he's not going to get as many touches if Arenas is back.

Finally the C position:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Brendan Haywood	2007-08	28	80	80	2228	5.1	9.7	.528	0.0	0.0		3.5	4.8	.735	4.4	4.9	9.3	1.1	0.5	2.1	1.7	3.5	13.7
2	Dwight Howard	2008-09	23	79	79	2821	7.1	12.5	.572	0.0	0.0	.000	6.4	10.8	.594	4.3	9.7	13.9	1.4	1.0	2.9	3.1	3.4	20.7
3	Shaquille O'Neal	2008-09	36	75	75	2252	8.2	13.4	.609	0.0	0.0	.000	4.9	8.3	.595	3.0	7.1	10.1	2.0	0.8	1.7	2.7	4.0	21.3
4	Kendrick Perkins	2008-09	24	76	76	2253	4.4	7.6	.577	0.0	0.0	.000	1.5	2.6	.600	3.3	6.6	9.9	1.5	0.4	2.4	2.6	4.0	10.4

Advanced:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Brendan Haywood	2007-08	28	80	2228	18.3	.582	.528	14.0	16.4	15.2	5.2	0.7	5.0	12.9	17.3	119	109	4.7	1.8	6.6
2	Dwight Howard	2008-09	23	79	2821	25.4	.600	.572	13.8	29.5	21.8	7.3	1.4	5.9	15.1	26.1	113	95	6.2	7.6	13.9
3	Shaquille O'Neal	2008-09	36	75	2252	22.3	.623	.609	10.1	22.3	16.4	8.9	1.1	3.5	13.6	24.2	117	109	5.9	2.3	8.2
4	Kendrick Perkins	2008-09	24	76	2253	13.2	.591	.577	11.5	21.4	16.7	6.5	0.5	5.3	23.1	14.8	105	100	1.1	4.4	5.5

It's hard to not give Dwight Howard and the Magic the advantage at this position. Even if Haywood replicates his performance from before his injury, it's not really even close, even an aging Shaq can be more effective than Haywood.

Now I can't feasibly say that the Washington bench is significantly better if better at all than those of Cleveland, Boston, or Orlando, so if we presume those and coaching a wash, the Wizards still fall behind Orlando, and I would put them behind both Cleveland and Boston as well. At best, they can hope for the playoffs at 4th seed, and therefore not have to face one of those top three in the first round.