Beware: The NBA Jades

People will tell me that the NBA is a business, I should expect things like this. Still, there's a part of me that clings on to the hope that the NBA can be what it was supposed to be, a showcase of the best basketball players in the world playing basketball. I wasn't really sure which word I should've emphasized, "playing" or "basketball" so I just decided to italicize both. This isn't really a recent development either, well, arguably it could be recent given that I haven't been on the NBA (blogging) scene for very long. Don't get me wrong, business is business, NBA is here to make money, it's not some charity or non-profit, it's in it for the money, David Stern is in it for the money. So it really shouldn't be surprising that the two leaders in jersey sales this year, Kobe Bryant (no. 1) and LeBron James (no. 2) get star treatment. At least, in my head, it shouldn't be surprising, no, the question isn't whether or not this is a shocker, but whether or not it's wrong.

Some people might come out and ask me whether or not they even get star treatment, honestly, I think it's rather hard to look at anything other than the box score and think otherwise. I know, I'm pulling out my conspiracy theorist hat, and it's jading me towards quality basketball, I suppose it was inevitable. As I said, this wasn't really a recent development, but honestly, I think it's gotten so blatant in this season's playoff series that it's sort of the proverbial "last straw". What is it? Well quite simply watch below:





This happened last night, and my gut instinct is that the NBA will rule the contact "incidental" and Kobe might get a slap on the wrist and a fine, but nothing more, not the suspension he's deserving of. Now someone's going to come up to me and say, "Well, Ron Artest was playing physical, he was like right on top of Kobe, so it was just an accident." Bull. Sure, Artest is a physical defender, but don't tell me that elbow was not purposefully thrown, you can't tell me that Kobe didn't know Artest was there, he [Artest] was sitting right on top of him [Bryant]. Some guy has his elbows on my shoulders, I'm pretty sure that if I threw an elbow backwards I'd deck him in the chest, gut, or throat, maybe the chin.



If that got a suspension, I don't know why Kobe's shouldn't, unless of course, players named Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, or anyone that plays for the Celtics can't get suspended (maybe it's one of those unwritten NBA rules). I'm not going to go into whether or not Artest should or should not have been ejected, but think about it, wouldn't you get mad if a ref doesn't call a foul on someone who just threw an elbow, at your throat? If Artest were really trying to draw a foul, do you think he'd use his throat? Seriously. Think about it. As I said, this is somewhat the tip of the iceberg:



Ok, so this play is pretty questionable, but still. It looked like Hinrich stumbled into Rondo, and Rondo naturally wants to get Hinrich off him, so... he subsequently throws him into the scorers' table? Uh... how did this not warrant a suspension? Oh right, because he plays on the same team as Kevin Garnett, and he's a Celtic, and all that good stuff, and David Stern's favorite Eastern Conference team is from Boston.

If you noticed, I threw LeBron up there too. I don't think LeBron has done anything like this, but still, given the physicality of LeBron's style of play, how he goes for those highlight reel blocks, and how he just barges through everything, you'd think he'd average at least two fouls a game, but he doesn't. Sure LeBron is a great player and all, but how in the world does a player THAT physical average 1.72 fouls PER GAME. I find it hard to believe. I'd believe it if he were a jump shooter, but heck, we've all seen the LeBron highlights, he's anything but a jumpshooter and plays no defense whatsoever, even then, that's hard to believe.

I'm not going to start on my conspiracy theory on how David Stern (and thereby the NBA) hates the Spurs. Don't get me started. Still, look for yourself, I'll give kudos to Stu Jackson if he does decide to suspend Kobe (as he should) but for some reason I doubt he will. This is dumb.

I feel like going to gnaw on something in frustration now.

Moving forward, onward, whatever you want to call it...

Post season is over, well, for some teams, so far the Pistons, Jazz, Spurs, and most recently the Hornets.  I got a chance to see 3 minutes of the 4th quarter of game 4 of the Houston-Portland matchup.  So it goes without saying that I haven't really been following the Playoffs very closely, rather, almost not at all, besides Kelly Dwyer's Behind the Boxscore that shows up in my feeds every morning.  I don't really have time or the inclination to go through and talk about every team that was bounced and how they should improve.  How the Pistons really went into the post season not really caring because the team was built on a core that probably won't be there next year.  How Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are walking next year, and how the only players that are guaranteed to be wearing Piston's blue come September are Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum.  How the Carlos Boozer probably won't be returning to the Jazz, how he's overpaid and overrated,  and how they were plagued with injuries.  How no one other than Jerry Sloan is willing to take ownership of the team, which it what keeps it from being championship caliber.  How the Hornets' roster of Chris Paul, Rasual Butler, Peja Stojakovic, David West, Tyson Chandler, Antonio Daniels, James Posey, Sean Marks, and Hilton Armstrong are the modern day Western Conference equivalent to the 2006-2007 Cleveland Cavaliers roster of Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, LeBron James, Drew Gooden, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Daniel Gibson, Eric Snow, Ira Newble, Donyell Marshall, and Anderson Varejao.

If you've read me long enough, you know I'm a Spurs fan, and so, as you've likely guessed, I'm going to talk about the Spurs.  While it bothers me somewhat that it's Dallas of all teams that's ousting my beloved Spurs, rather embarassingly, from the first round, there's a part of me that's sort of glad that they were rather soundly trounced.  No one ever likes seeing their team lose, but nonetheless, I hope that Greg Popovich and RC Buford see this as a strong wakeup call that it's not 2005 anymore.  While Tony Parker has evolved to become the star that everyone hoped for, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan, while by no means quickly losing ground to old age, aren't really quite what they were almost 5 years ago.  I don't want to hear the, "If only Manu were healthy..." excuses, the fact of the matter remains, outside of the Big 3 of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker, the San Antonio Spurs are a mediocre team, at best.  

Please don't tell me otherwise, I have no delusions of grandeur.  Don't tell me how Roger Mason has been clutch, because while he's made a couple of big shots, he's a relatively ineffecient player and scorer.  He's just getting more attention because he's not buried behind Gilbert Arenas and Antonio Daniels on the Wizards.  In the additional 9 minutes of play he's averaging an additional 2.7 points, 1.5 rebounds, 0.4 assists, and 0.3 turnovers on 3 additional shot attempts, shooting roughly the same percentages (with a slightly increased 3pt shooting percentage I attribute to better looks).  11 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 assist, with essentially no steals, no blocks, and a couple of threes in 30+ minutes of play isn't my definition of stellar.  The guy turns 29 by the start of the next regular season, so I can't really imagine him getting better.  Don't get me wrong, he's solid, an average role player, I just don't want people getting the wrong idea he's some kind of savior.  If you don't believe me, check his per 36 numbers between this year and last.  He actually did better last year because he had to facilitate more, since the only time he got to see significant floor time was when both Arenas and Daniels were injured.

I know Michael Finley can get hot once and a while and shoot the Spurs to a win.  However, the distance between such games is growing ever larger.  The man is 36, we have to remember that.  He's almost 10 years removed from his best season.  This isn't the 1999 22 point per game Michael Finley, this is the 2009 9 point per game, with streaky 3s, as capable of being red hot as he is consistently ice cold.

While Bruce Bowen is a solid contributor on the defensive end, he's about a month shy of 38.  In basketball terms, 38 is a big number, when referring to age, big numbers are bad.  Ok, maybe not "bad" but certainly it doesn't help his athleticism and ability to stay in front of younger, more athletic players.  Same goes for Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto, who are 36 and 34 respectively.  

Finally, while Matt Bonner has been a pleasant surprise this season, it's only because everyone had absolutely no expectations about him whatsoever coming into the season.  When nothing turns out to be something, it's always something of a shock (in a good way).  Let's be honest though, while Bonner's production was somewhat serindipidous, he's not much more than a poor man's version of Al Harrington or Andrea Bargnani.  That's pretty bad.  Granted, he's no Mark Blount or Brian Cook, but still, I don't know that it merits 23 minutes per game.  

Jacque Vaughn was, well... Jacque Vaughn, I don't know that I really need to say much more than that.  As for Drew Gooden, it was too little, too late.  He's good, and he played fairly well with the Spurs, but I think that he's going to want more than he's worth, at least to the Spurs.  There are other intricacies involved with Gooden, I'll get into that later.  

Generally speaking, you could probably just read Timothy Varner's post at 48 Minutes regarding how the Spurs should move forward, which boils down a lot of the needs.  It doesn't quite sum up what I want to talk about, but definitely is worth reading.  I take a slightly different approach from Varner, but I think his ideas have merit and work too.  Sounds like Varner is going to have a bunch of upcoming posts as to how the Spurs should improve their roster, so I'd always keep an eye on what Graydon and Varner have going on there, it's usually good stuff.

As you might've heard, the salary cap is supposed to fall.  If you're not sure what that means, it means that teams are allowed less money to sign their players.  Since as the cap falls, so does the luxury tax threshhold and likely the mid-level exception.  The current salary cap is set at $58.68 million, it's expected to drop to $57.3 million, now in terms of salary flexibility, it doesn't mean much for the Spurs, as they're over the cap either way, however, if the MLE drops, they have less money with which to improve their roster.  If we look at the roster next season, the Spurs will have approximately $66 million in salary tied up in Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Thomas, Bowen, Mason, Bonner, Hill, Mahinmi (if they exercise their team option), and Finley (if he exercises his player option).  Of the above mentioned players, the core I think Spurs should rebuild around are Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Hill, and Mahinmi.  While it would be nice to retain Mason and maybe Bonner, I personally don't think it necessary, and am willing to part with them, if it means an improvement to the roster, in short, they're not untouchable.

So far, the only thing the Spurs really have to play around with are expiring contracts, as everyone on the roster except essentially Duncan and Parker are not guaranteed past 2010.  Given that a lot of teams are probably looking to cut costs, it's not a bad situation to be in.  We'll see how all that pans out though.  However, before we start looking into that, I want to address one thing:

Should the Spurs trade Manu Ginobili?

In short, my answer is: no.  I suppose I should probably expound on that a little bit, there are various posts/comments and such around the internet regarding whether or not Manu should be traded.  There are various reasons to think consider trading Manu.  He's 32, he's beat up, and he's not getting younger, and therefore has the "injury-prone" label applied to him, especially given his style of play, granted, he's never played a whole season in his 7 season in the NBA, but still, he has been playing basketball essentially for the past 2-3 years (since the 2006-2007 season), straight, meaning no offseason (FIBA qualifiers and then Olympics).  I'm not going to get into whether or not he should've been allowed to represent Argentina in the international games, but I'm just going to say this, while the Spurs pay him, they don't own him.  Let the man make his decisions.  You don't see Laker fans complain about how Kobe put off hand surgery and represented the US, oh yeah, Kobe's turning 31 by the way. 

Anyways I digress.  While I won't off handedly turn down any offers for Manu (like say LeBron for Manu), I don't believe that it's in the Spurs' best interest to trade him.  Firstly, as he has the "injury-prone" label, I don't think his stock is that high.  Yes, I think we all realize that he's only one season removed from the best statistical season he's ever had (2007-2008), but still, given that he hasn't played for most of the year, and only played a gimpy 44 games this season, I don't know that the Spurs could really get anything of significant value back for him.  Secondly, I believe that Ginobili can still continue to contribute to the Spurs, and I honestly don't want to take the risk that Ginobili comes back with a vengence next season, on a different team.  I can't really articulate another reason beyond that it just feels wrong, but I honestly think that a player of Ginobili's ilk is definitely something the Spurs need and it brings an intangible aspect of mojo and chemistry to the lockerroom.  I'm sure Ginobili will be reasonable about what to expect in the form of an extension next season.  Spurs are good at drafting players that usually are (reasonable about their salary).

So what've we got to work with?  Well, simply put, we have the MLE (approximately $5 million), tack on another million or so for a veteran's minimum, plus upwards of $20 million in expiring contracts.  Rumors are swirling about how Rasheed Wallace is a significant possibility come this offseason.  While 'Sheed isn't exactly what the Spurs need to get younger (he turns 35 by next season), he's definitely what the Spurs want in another big man to play around Duncan.  He's solid in the low post, he's a decent mid-range to long-range shooter, he's effective as a defender for a big man, he's a shot blocking presence, a decent rebounder, and he's played for a defense-first championship caliber Detroit Pistons.  Finally, 'Sheed being 35, would likely not field offers anywhere near his current salary of $13 million per year.  If 'Sheed is serious about winning another ring, there's not much better place than the one team that has won the most rings in the past 10 years (4 since 1999, Lakers have 3, Pistons 1, Miami 1, Boston 1).  Timothy Varner mentions somewhere in his post that Spurs might be able to get Wallace for about $3.5 million of the MLE, ok, let's say he takes that much, what are the Spurs' other options now?

I've been pretty extensive looking through the free agency list, and honestly, for under $2 million, I don't know that we could sign anyone great, reasonably, I say we have a decent shot at someone like Walter Herrmann, who's been somewhat buried in the Piston's roster ever since the trade for Allen Iverson.  Herrmann is currently signed for $2 million, I don't know if Pistons want to keep him, but surely, the Spurs could afford to try to throw at least a little money at him.  Marquis Daniels is another intriguing option, but it's possible that he might be commanding a little more than Spurs could really afford.

Given the money situation, restricted free agents like Marvin Williams, Josh Childress, Paul Millsap, Brandon Bass are all a little out of reach.  Before we get any further though, so as not to utterly confuse you all, I suppose it would be best to sit down and hammer out what exactly the Spurs need.  Well, the obvious answer would be, any player not named Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, or Manu Ginobili, but it helps to have something a bit more concrete of an idea.  There are two dire needs that have shown up towards the waning stages of the regular season and well into the playoffs that seem to plague the Spurs.

First order of business I believe would be a legitimate big man to play next to Tim Duncan.  The Spurs believed that it would be young French draft prospect Ian Mahinmi, but he was injured during the course of the season and therefore couldn't play.  However, I don't really see Mahinmi being the solution in the near future.  While he continues to develop under Duncan, I think that as of now, he'd best serve  as a sort of energy man off the bench, much in the mold of Anderson Varejao or Brandon Bass.  While, I've yet to see him play, hopefully he gets some more playing time and experience in and it pans out.  However, the immediate need for a big man that can immediately step into a starting role and play next to Tim Duncan then still remains very real and very unfilled.  The roles have traditionally been filled with big men that were able defenders and able to spread the floor with a mid-range jumper, generally spreading the floor and allowing Duncan to work his magic in the low post.  For those that don't remember, this group includes David Robinson in the later years of his career, Rasho Nesterovic, and Fabricio Oberto.  While Kurt Thomas fits this role fairly well, his offense is somewhat too inconsistent to rely on, hence, Popovich went with Matt Bonner, sacrificing defense for some added offense.  While Drew Gooden might be serviceable, and while both he and Duncan can play on the block and pull out defenses, I'm not a fan of Gooden when he starts jacking up wing 20 footers.  The general consensus is that his game isn't versatile enough and too similar to Duncan's for him to be worth much money to hold on to.  Additionally, his weakness on the defensive end certainly doesn't help matters any.  

Enter Rasheed Wallace.  No one expects Wallace to carry a team anymore, and on the Spurs he won't have to.  He's a solid man-to-man defender, and between him and Duncan, they can split defensive assignments against opposing bigs.  While 'Sheed isn't inclined to play much in the low block anymore, he certainly is more than able when the need arises, and he won't have to really do it all that much.  Additionally, the need for his offense is generally something he's been doing a lot of lately (much to the frustration of many Detroit fans I'm sure), that is, shooting outside jumpers.  No one questions Wallace's ability to play solid defense in the post, and of course, Wallace, while not known to be a crusher, does add a much needed shot blocking presence outside of Duncan for the Spurs' frontcourt.  The biggest caveat with Sheed is simply that he might be something of a headcase, however, I think that two things mitigate the risk and make it worth taking; first, if 'Sheed wants to win, he knows he has to shape up.  Remember, he played for Larry Brown, I'm sure Greg Popovich is used to having to deal with antics as such after Dennis Rodman.  Secondly, Tim Duncan will still be there to help keep 'Sheed in line.

Now, I don't believe Rasheed Wallace to be the ultimate answer, but he certainly is the most realistic and I believe will help the Spurs tremendously.  Granted if I could choose any player flirting with free agency, I'd actually take Mehmet Okur over Rasheed Wallace.  However, given the situation, I highly doubt that Okur would opt out of his contract from the Jazz ($9 million) as he knows given the market he won't get anything more, and I highly doubt that the Spurs could offer him much, unless they pulled a sign-and-trade.  Varner declares the Spurs to be major players in the 2010 market, and he's probably better informed than I am, however, I still don't really see the Spurs making a huge splash.  However, I'm not going to complain if Spurs manage to somehow nab Chris Bosh via free agency.  Given that, if Spurs really are looking into the 2010 free agency, and that the only reason Mehmet Okur would opt out would be for a longer contract since he's not getting a bigger one, then I don't know that the Spurs would want to go for Okur.  While I'm rather skeptical about the amount of involvement Spurs will have in the 2010 free agency, I'm in agreement with Varner that should we tie someone up long term, at a fairly steep price, we might as well swing for the fences.  $10 million per for Mehmet Okur for the next 5 seasons isn't exactly my idea of a home run.

There are also a number of restricted free agents that might come cheap, names such as Paul Millsap, David Lee, Charlie Villanueva, and Brandon Bass have all played themselves into prominence.  However, being RFAs, I don't believe that their respective teams are willing to let them just walk, especially not at whatever the Spurs might be asking for.  Furthermore, I see all of these guys more as kind of hustle players, and therefore, I'm willing to let these guys walk for the sake of seeing how Mahinmi pans out.  I don't see any of these guys starting well next to Duncan, hence I generally tend to look more for players that are center eligible, and I mean on a normal team, not in a Mike D'Antoni offense.

Secondly, I believe that an upgrade in the wing position is needed, primarily the starting and backup SF position.  Currently, the spot is platooned between Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, and Ime Udoka.  Now the commonality between the three is that they can all kind of hit threes, Bowen and Udoka are known more for their abilities on the defensive end, and Finley is just a slight upgrade offensively and downgrade defensively from the two.  I believe this to be one of the biggest needs of the Spurs, and to make the biggest impact, I believe that the Spurs will have to trade themselves into a good spot.  The biggest issue, is how the Spurs can't keep up with more athletic and younger teams, well to solve that, I would imagine the Spurs would just have to get more athletic and younger.  Ideally, you'd want someone that can defend and hit threes (i.e. Bowen and Udoka).  Now if I were to make a list of lockdown defenders, I could tell you that I don't see any of them falling into San Antonio in the near future, so, since we're likely not getting the likes of Shane Battier or Tayshaun Prince, I would propose that the Spurs alter some of the criteria, this would undoubtedly change the overall "feel" of the Spurs, but I think the long run make them better.  I'll take an above average defender, esepcially if the Spurs land someone like Rasheed Wallace.  I'm also willing to forgo 3 point shooting prowess to the level that said player can make enough to keep defenses honest.

That being said, I'm not sure that the free agency then is the best place in which the Spurs will be able to make a major splash and upgrade their roster, in which case they will need to do something via trade.  However, one name in free agency that I've continually brought up and will continually bring up is the name of Walter Herrmann.  I'm sure most of you are wondering who the heck I'm talking about, those of you that actually know me and have talked with me about basketball have surely heard his name mentioned somewhere in the course of conversation before.  Fabio, as he's known in the basketball world, has proven that he's effective when he gets minutes.  He's a little older, yes, turning 30 this June, however, he's on Detroit's books for $2 million and is a free agent this summer, and averages slightly more than 10 minutes per game, playing just under 6 minutes per during the playoffs.  He's shown on Charlotte and in Detroit that if he's given extended minutes he can definitely do some damage.  Additionally, he's a solid defender and can hit threes, he understands the team chemistry thing as he's won an Olympic gold medal playing with fellow Argentines Manu Ginobili and Fabricio Oberto, so I don't see chemistry being a huge issue.  He's not a guy that demands shots, and is someone that makes the most of them.  He's virtually an ideal Spur.  RC Buford, if you are reading this, and ignore everything else I say, FIND A WAY TO SIGN WALTER HERRMANN!!!

Anyways, there are a number of other options both in restricted and unrestricted free agency that seem to be fairly intriguing.  My sign-and-trade dream player that's semi-realistic would likely be Marvin Williams, who's definitely shown that he can step up and play big when he's called to do so.  The only reason I say semi-realistic is because of the ineptitude with which the Hawks' front office handled the Josh Smith and Josh Childress contracts last offseason.  Additionally, he and Raymond Felton are the only players picked top 5 in their class to not have a contract extension agreement already reached (the other 3 players being Andrew Bogut, Deron Williams, and Chris Paul).  Re-signing Williams should be something of a no-brainer for the Hawks, but it's possible that they re-sign Mike Bibby for way too much and can't afford to match offers made to Williams.  Of course, I doubt the Spurs would be the ones making that sort of offer.  Josh Childress would be another guy I'd look for, but I don't know that he's coming back from Europe quite yet, and again, Hawks still own his rights.

Another player to look at would be Marquis Daniels, who has played exceptionally well for the Pacers, in light of injuries to Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger throughout the season (mostly Dunleavy).  He's rather expensive at the moment, so I don't really expect Indiana to pick up his $7.3 million team option.  If he can be convinced to play for less, then it might be worthwhile.  

Otherwise, the Spurs really have to look into various trade options in order to better improve their situation on the wings.  Milwaukee looks to be a venue of possibility, however, the only player I'd really look into in Milwaukee would be Joe Alexander, as he's little used.  While I'd rather have Luc Richard Mbah-a-Moute, I understand that Milwaukee probably would be a little unwilling to part with him.  Alexander is somewhat little used and I see a lot of potential there that the Spurs could really tap into.  I think a system like the Spurs is one where Alexander could really thrive in.  The main problem is that I don't really see the Bucks adding salary just to get rid of Alexander, as they're looking to cut costs to be able to re-sign Ramon Sessions and Charlie Villanueva.  Therefore, it's possible that they might ask the Spurs to take Richard Jefferson as part of the package.  While I'm not entirely against having Richard Jefferson on the roster, I am opposed to adding $13 million in salary for a single player while having to dump virtually all tradeable assets (it'd end up being something like Bowen, Oberto, Bonner, and Thomas for Jefferson and Alexander).

I'm actually not super opposed to taking on Jared Jeffries's contract on the condition we can land Wilson Chandler.  Bowen and Oberto for Jeffries and Chandler would be the scenario.  Of course, that likely tears a hole in any 2010 plans that the Spurs may have had. 

Another player I'm rather fond of would be Kelenna Azubuike.  Though I doubt the Warriors part with him, and would likely give the Spurs Jamal Crawford or Corey Maggette in the process, both at prices that I wouldn't want, it's still something to consider.  That being said, I wouldn't mind seeing Stephen Jackson back in a Spurs uniform.

All in all, there aren't a whole lot of options out there, so I'm kind of digging the bottom of the barrel here.  I highly doubt that the Spurs land Trevor Ariza somehow, but Jamario Moon might be another player that they decide to take a risk on.  Ultimately, I'm sure RC Buford has a plan worked out, and he probably has better scouts for younger players in D-League and Europe than I do.  As you can see, the Spurs need to seriously retool their roster.  The premise I think will be generally the same, fundamentally sound, defensive basketball, just how it's done will be somewhat different.  However, I think the Spurs, with the right moves, can definitely stay in the thick of it.

Nonplussed...

I don't know if I'm the only one that thinks this, but is it me, or do refs like LeBron?  A lot.  No one's really mentioning it though.  [Insert David Stern conspiracy theory].  It was a moderately big deal when Leon Powe went to the line 13 times in game 2 of the Finals last year, a big deal because the entire Lakers squad only went to the line 10 times.  Ok, I can see how that's weird, I mean, it is the Lakers, and it is Leon Powe.

I haven't seen the games really all that much, but it is sort of interesting that in the first two games of the series LeBron has already had 31 attempts at the charity stripe.  31 in two games (14 in the game 1, 17 in game 2).  That's a lot.  Especially when you consider that EVERY PISTON COMBINED has only seen 28 attempts.  [Insert David Stern conspiracy theory]

PLEASE STOP SAYING THAT MO WILLIAMS HAD A "MONSTER YEAR"

He didn't, he really didn't. He's a good player that went from a bad team to a better team. Saying that had an above average year would be saying that he's having a sort of breakout year, that he's playing better than he was before. He's not. He's playing the same game for a better team. End of story. To say that Mo Williams is the difference maker is almost like saying that if Cavs didn't get Mo Williams and instead swapped LeBron for Michael Redd, Milwaukee would be hands down the best team in the league. Really? I don't think so. I was bothered because Charles Barkley said that Mo Williams is having "a monster year" this season. Can you please do some research before throwing out arbitrary analysis?

Let's look at Mo's per game averages for the last 4 years:

Mo Williams	2005-2006	2006-2007	2007-2008	2008-2009
MPG	26.4	36.3	36.5	35.0
FGA	10.8	15.4	13.9	13.9
FG%	42.4%	44.6%	48.0%	46.7%
3PM	1.3	1.2	1.3	2.3
3P%	38.2%	34.6%	38.5%	43.6%
FT%	85.0%	85.5%	85.6%	91.2%
PPG	12.1	17.3	17.2	17.8
RPG	2.5	4.8	3.5	3.4
APG	4.0	6.1	6.3	4.1
SPG	0.9	1.3	1.2	0.9
BPG	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1
TO	1.8	3.0	2.8	2.2

His scoring average has pretty much been the same ever since he got more playing time, so his overall production on the Bucks is the same as his output on the Cavs.  The main difference being that he takes and makes more 3s, which I would argue, is simply because a.) he's asked to take more of those shots and b.) he gets better looks at those shots because of LeBron.  I'm not really going to go a whole lot into the players Williams plays with on Cleveland and compare them to who he played with in Milwaukee, but I'm going to briefly say that LeBron James is better at getting his teammates better shots or rather even shots in general than Michael Redd.  Don't believe me?  Let's look at the per 36 numbers then:

Mo Williams	2005-2006	2006-2007	2007-2008	2008-2009
FGA	14.8	15.3	13.7	14.3
FG%	42.4%	44.6%	48.0%	46.7%
3PM	1.7	1.2	1.3	2.3
3P%	38.2%	34.6%	38.5%	43.6%
FT%	85.0%	85.5%	85.6%	91.2%
Pts	16.5	17.1	17.0	18.3
Reb	3.4	4.8	3.4	3.5
Asst	5.4	6.1	6.3	4.2
Stl	1.2	1.2	1.2	0.9
Blk	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
TO	2.5	2.9	2.7	2.3

Williams's output is pretty identical, instead of passing the ball a couple more times he's picking better shots to take and making them, hence increase in scoring, decrease in assists.  Definitely solid, but nothing really stellar, honestly, not really production I think would put Cleveland over the top.  So what is putting Cleveland over the top then?  My call is improved play from players you weren't expecting to do this well.

A Quick Look at Free Agent Prospects

So I mentioned some names in a comment in Tim Varner's post on 48 minutes. These are in my opinion, the best available wings in terms of both offense and defense, available come 2009 free agency.

Marquis Daniels

"Offense: Gets about a fifth of his offensive from each of fast break opportunities, pick and rolls, and spot ups. Shows solid one-on-one skills as well. Decent jump shot. Doesn’t show ideal follow through. Won’t hit many three pointers, but he’ll take them when he is open. Takes some questionable shots with a hand in his face. Shows decent footwork, but could stand to work on his fundamentals in that regard. Won’t always set his feet consistently. Good ball handler. Can play a bit of point guard. Not a great scorer off the dribble, but can create for teammates. Likes to pull up for jumpers when he drives right. Will work hard off the ball. Does the little things. Pretty good finisher at the basket. Will play above the rim when he has space. Mediocre foul shooter. Valuable as a passer and scorer, but not a standout in either.

Defense: The Pacers most versatile perimeter defender. Can defend all three backcourt positions. More effective against the two guard positions than small forwards. Shows great intensity and effort on the defensive end. Displays tremendous lateral quickness and fast hands. Plays physically, but doesn’t foul. Very intelligent in that way. Does a good job reading passers off the ball and jumping in front of telegraphed passes. Doesn’t do a whole lot of rebounding. Very sound on the defensive end. "

Daniels has definitely has really had an opportunity to shine this season, especially given the injuries Indiana faced to Mike Dunleavy and also some to Danny Granger, this post was written a year ago, and I definitely think he's improved some. He's still not a great 3 pt shooter by any stretch of the imagination, but he's definitely improved his rebounding, getting it up to 4.6 per contest, a pretty respectable number for a perimeter player, epsecially usually as an off guard. The biggest question then, would be whether or not Indiana will pick up Daniels's team option which is valued at $7.3 million. It's a mite expensive so I can imagine Indiana letting him walk and him signing somewhere else for a little cheaper. He'll be a valuable wing player addition to any team that signs him.

Marvin Williams:

"Offense: Has improved his jump shot significantly since entering the League. Shoots no-dribble jumpers in two-thirds of his spot-up situations; a telling sign of where he is most comfortable at this point. Gets most of his other touches from one-on-one dribble drives and in transition, but seems extremely content hoisting shots from the perimeter when defenders give him space. Able to shoot an above average percentage on mechanics alone. Kicks his legs from time to time when in rhythm, which makes him look less fluid. Could stand to take that out of his game and improve his footwork. Needs to improve both his consistency and aggressiveness to reach his potential. Asked to post up periodically. Shows some decent moves down low. Tends to avoid turning to the baseline when posted up on the right side, but shows the ability to score over both shoulders at a decent clip from the left block. Doesn’t crash the glass as hard as he should given his athleticism. His future remains on the perimeter, and he needs to improve his ball-handling skills and range in order to take advantage of his physical assets. Wouldn’t hurt him to cut down on his turnovers and look to assert himself off the dribble more frequently either. Has shown the ability to get to the line at a high rate. His ability to shoot a good percentage will make his development as a slasher that much more worthwhile.

Defense: A tweener? Doesn’t translate his physical talents to the
defensive end as well he translates them to the offensive end. Has a tough time defending the post. Is susceptible to bigger more experienced post players. Can make an impact defending the perimeter. Ability to contest shots on the perimeter, coupled with the fact that he doesn’t take a lot of risks shows how solid a defender he is. A little bit too upright in his stance, which makes it tough for him to stay in front of quicker small forwards. Commits some unnecessary fouls, but that shouldn’t be a problem as he acclimates to his competition. Rebounds the ball at a good rate."

Williams is also like 3rd or 4th down the line on the offensive chart in Woodson's offense behind Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, and possibly even Al Horford. Still, he's averaging 14 points per game this season. Additionally, he's significantly improved his 3 point shooting, hitting for this season a decent 35.5% making about 1 per contest. I think playing in a wing position (which Woodson does, playing Smith at the PF slot) is where he is strongest and will make a huge impact. Unlike his rookie classmates; Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Andrew Bogut, Williams and Raymond Felton are the only remaining top 5 picks from the class of 2005 to not reach a contract extension agreement with their respective teams. Of course, the question then ends up being, will Atlanta just pick up Williams's qualifying offer or will they match anything someone else throws at him? Most people believe that re-signing Williams ought to be the Hawks' priority, but given how they handled Josh Smith's contract, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up walking.


Josh Childress:

"Offense: Has a very smooth offensive game, but is the owner of one of the League’s most awkward jump shots. Displays a major hitch in his jumper and releases it with minimal elevation. Knocks it down consistently enough not to not have to fix it. Scores efficiently, which is the result of great shot selection. Shows a deceptive first-step. Is able to attack the rim off the dribble, and sets his man up by moving well off the ball. Isn’t the most efficient finisher due to his lack of vertical explosiveness. Does a good job of using his length and crafty footwork to beat defenders to the rim or get to the line. Doesn’t pull up off the dribble very often, since he connects with those kinds of shots at a pedestrian rate. Shows range out to three-point range, but his form gives him a very small margin for error, which is represented in his three-point percentage. Finds his offense in transition situations and drives off the dribble, both of which embody his desire to run the floor and his capacity to handle the ball well. Has good court vision, passing ability, and decision-making skills. Doesn’t play all that much point-forward since Joe Johnson fills that role. Won’t light up the scoreboard, but is a consistent contributor that gets his baskets in the flow of the offense. Provides a steadying presence on the floor in Atlanta, despite his age, and is a valuable asset in half-court sets.

Defense: Atlanta’s most fundamentally sound defender. Doesn’t have ideal foot-speed, but has tremendous defensive intangibles and a great wingspan. Reads ball-handlers extremely well, and creates turnovers by getting into passing lanes. Length and effort make him a very good perimeter defender. Lacks the bulk to defend strong players in the post, but makes an effort to deny entry passes by working hard to take away angles. Gets beat off the dribble periodically, but doesn’t give up anything easy at the rim. Does a good job of rotating with the ball. Isn’t reckless when closing out his man off of skip passes. Still manages to block a few shots due in large part to his long arms and good timing. Has great timing and knows how toget his team extra possessions."

I don't think Hawks really have Childress that much on their radar, but if he does decide to return to the States to play ball, it's entirely possible that the Hawks will match anything that anyone throws at him, especially given how many free agents the Hawks have this coming off-season. However, it's also entirely possible that the Hawks just don't want anything more to do with Childress after how they handled him last season and his subsequent departure for Greece. Hope he does come back, does have to add some serious weight though.

Walter Herrmann:

DraftExpress didn't have a writeup of him, so I pulled a quick one from Sportsnet.

"Assets
Athletic and smart, he is a very solid player fundamentally who can excel in either up-tempo or halfcourt schemes. Drives fearlessly to the hoop and can hit from anywhere in the offensive zone. Unselfish, and an underrated natural scorer.

Flaws
While solid defensively he is a bit of a 'tweener (not really a small forward and not really a power forward). Needs to find his niche at the NBA level."

Hm.... solid defender that hits threes... Herrmann lit it up towards the end of the 2007 season when the Bobcats pretty much gave up. He's super efficient at scoring when he gets playing time, but thusfar in the Detroit rotation has been somewhat buried. He's already 29 but still, I'd imagine he has a bit of ball left in him. He's an unrestricted free after this season with Detroit, and I don't know that they'd look to keep him. Solid guy for whichever team needs some spot offense and solid defense at the 3.

Of course there are other big names out there, Ron Artest, Shawn Marion, Hedo Turkoglu should he opt out, other names to look at would include Trevor Ariza though I doubt Lakers let him walk.

Spurs now are guaranteed playoff exit...

So sad, so sad....

What about those old guys?

So there are a number of older players that in the final year of their contracts, and a lot of people are wondering what will happen to them. Well, at least I am. One path might be retirement, another path of course, might be to sign with a different team, then again, maybe they'll sign with the same team. Who knows? Now, by old, in the NBA at least, generally we mean over 30, though some are older than others. Given the state of the economy and the shrinking salary cap (and therefore shrinking MLE) free agents will definitely have a harder time finding jobs on teams for whatever salary they are demanding. Of course, with these players it might be even more of an issue as they're all in the downside of their careers, playing on their proverbial "last legs". Who'll go where? First, let's look at who's available:

Jason Kidd - PG - Dallas Mavericks - 36 years old
Mike Bibby - PG - Atlanta Hawks - 30 years old
Allen Iverson - SG - Detroit Pistons - 33 years old
Rasheed Wallace - PF/C - Detroit Pistons - 34 years old
Andre Miller - PG - Philadelphia 76ers - 33 years old
Shawn Marion - SF/PF - Toronto Raptors - 30 years old

All the other unrestricted frees are still pretty young, so let's look at these guys. All of them are in their heyday contracts, Iverson and Kidd still making $21 million for this season, Marion making $17 million, Bibby making $15 million, Rasheed making $13 million, and Miller pretty much $10 million. The only player capable of making anything remotely near what he's currently making I think is Miller, just because he has had the most solid year of contribution averaging 16.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. So all these players are definitely getting a huge paycut, and I think they should definitely realize that, especially as they're all getting towards the end of their careers (especially Kidd). So here are my scenarios for them:

Jason Kidd

I think Kidd will be the most interesting as he'll be able to have still a pretty big impact wherever he goes, since well, he's Jason Kidd, a future Hall of Famer PG living legend. That being said, Kidd is most definitely on his last legs, it's showing. There's always kind of been a lot of press around Kidd, especially with his recent comments about playing with LeBron. However, I don't think that's really realistic, as Kidd isn't really the player that the Cavs are looking for, specifically because they have LeBron. I think Kenny Smith says somewhere (maybe on Yahoo) that Kidd will probably stay in Dallas, simply because nobody else really wants to pay him, and Dallas would need to figure out his replacement if he did leave. Additionally, it would be the final concession that Jason Kidd for Devin Harris was in fact, a stupid trade. However, Dallas also needs to get a new look since what they have hasn't worked, but in fact has gotten progressively worse since their failed 2006 NBA Finals showing. Kidd isn't in the future, and Mavs might be on the road to rebuilding, then again, maybe not.

So Dallas is an option, one thing I would like to see is Kidd ending up somewhere where he'd be used more as a mentor for younger point guards than really for his on court contributions. I make mention of Portland in a previous post. If the Blazers could land Kidd for cheaper, that would enable them to trade Blake, Sergio, and Outlaw to bolster other parts of their roster, namely the SF spot. I really relish the idea of Kidd taking a raw talent like Jerryd Bayless under his wing, and since Bayless is such a natural scorer, having someone like Kidd mentor him in other aspects of being a PG is just that much more appealing. This works best with Kidd and not the other older PGs (Miller and Bibby) simply because it's Jason Kidd, he's a legend, and while he's lost a step, he's still that legend, while the other guys, are just solid PGs to show him the ropes, and Steve Blake does a serviceable job of that. If you'll notice in the previous post, Coup also addresses the whole defense issue and makes a point to show that if the help is there, then Kidd isn't that big of a liability.

By that same idea, Miami might be another destination, and while Chalmers has definitely stepped out on his own, and as much as I would enjoy a Dwayne Wade/Jason Kidd backcourt, I think the Heat are more worried about bolstering their interior and depth a little more. However, the possibility remains, since they do have Jermaine O'Neal. A lot of whether or not anything gets done on the PG front though is if the front office is confident in Jermaine's ability to stay healthy and if they're ok with how Mario Chalmers is doing now.

Mike Bibby

I honestly can't see Bibby anywhere other than in Atlanta, then again, I'm never sure what the Atlanta front office is going to pull in the off season, so I can't say that with a whole lot of gusto. If you watch NBATVs Strength of the Team segment from this week, you'll find Kenny Smith interviewing Hawks' coach Mike Woodson, who says that Bibby is the best thing to happen to his coaching career. That's some pretty high praise there, so I think there will definitely be a push for Bibby to come back. Will he take a paycut so the Hawks can resign Marvin Williams? That remains to be seen.

Allen Iverson

Well, Allen Iverson is already flirting with retirement. It's pretty understandable given that Iverson has never come off the bench before. However, no one's really listening, why? Because Dumars made it clear that bringing Iverson to the Pistons was really more of a money move for the future than anything else. Dumars didn't see Iverson as the player who carried the 2000-2001 Philadelphia 76ers to the NBA Finals, but as an attractive $21 million expiring contract. That being said, Iverson definite still has game, just how much? Not too sure, but it's still there. He might not be as great as he once was, but he can still make a difference when need be. Needless to say, that means that Iverson will not be returning for another tenure with the Pistons.

Where does he fit? Well, I think it was Tas Melas from the Basketball Jones that said this, but please correct me if I'm wrong, the Charlotte Bobcats look like a pretty Iversonian team. They even have his 2000-2001 head coach, Larry Brown. The Bobcats actually just look like an upgraded version of the 01 76ers, really, they do. I mean, granted Iverson has lost a couple of steps since then, but hey, wouldn't you say that a squad of Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Emeka Okafor, DJ Augustin, DeSagana Diop, Vladamir Radmanovic, Nazr Mohammed, and Juwan Howard at least as good as if not better than Eric Snow, George Lynch, Tyrone Hill, Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie, Kevin Ollie, Jumaine Jones, Todd MacCulloch, and Matt Geiger? Ok sure, the Bobcats can definitely get better, but they have a solid bunch of role players right now and are just looking for someone to take over the game. Raymond Felton is probably out of the picture, but the Hawks definitely could use a game changer like Allen Iverson, creating on the offense. I'm not gonna go into the details of parallels between Raja Bell and Aaron McKie and Emeka Okafor and Dikembe Mutombo, but I think it's not a bad place for Iverson to end his career. They're pushing for the playoffs already without him, and I think he can take them a little further.

Rasheed Wallace

As mentioned in the link above in my post on Jason Kidd, I think that Rasheed Wallace can be big on the Spurs, if he can fit into the system. I'd love to see him playing next to Duncan, and if he brings the defensive effort, and is willing to play for cheap, then it's a hit. Dumars has also made it clear that Wallace isn't in the long-term Pistons picture, so it's a final hurrah or retirement. Of course, Wallace has mentioned before that he might want to retire, but I think if he's willing to play for a contender, there are a lot of teams that could really use his length, defense, and versatility. Spurs seem like the best place where they can utilize that and also contain his quirkiness. He'd be like the ultimate combination of Robert Horry and Dennis Rodman. While it'd be interesting to see him play next to maybe someone like Dwight Howard, I think the Magic are going to be focused on trying to retain Hedo Turkoglu, and then would try to sign a cheaper, more workmanlike PF to play next to Howard.

Andre Miller

Miller is a pretty intersting case because he's been playing so well for Philadelphia. However, there are rumors that his tenure might be up, especially as he's not really getting younger. He's a solid PG to say the least, and I probably see him remaining at Philadelphia for a little while, as he's been the steady floor captain that has really helped keep the team running. However, should Kidd leave, I can see the Mavericks turning an eye at him. Another option might be Sacramento, who are looking for someone to take up the reigns where Beno Udrih could not. Portland was interested in Miller purportedly before the trade deadline, but I honestly think that they wouldn't be getting significantly better acquiring Miller.

Shawn Marion

Last but not least is the enigmatic Shawn Marion. The Matrix has definitely looked utterly lost ever since he left Steve Nash and the run-and-gun game of Mike D'Antoni. Not really sure how things are going to work out for him, really, he's the hardest guy to place. He's not really very good offensively, at least in terms of creating his own shot, but he's a solid rebounder for his size and defends fairly well. I don't see him commanding another $17 million, especially in the current economic situation, but it's possible that some team might still overpay him. A team that naturally comes to mind as a fit would be the Golden State Warriors, who desperately need defense and rebounding. Of course, the arrival of Marion may mean a hindrance of the development of Anthony Randolph, though, if the Warriors are set on getting rid of Crawford and playing Maggette as a super 6th man, then having Randolph play the 3 and Marion the 4 may not be a bad idea. Not sure where Brandan Wright would fit into all of this, but hey, I think that right now, Warriors are the one team that Marion could go to and make a positive impact.