What will it take?: San Antonio Spurs

I'm not going to hide it, I'm a Spurs fan. For this reason alone, I'm not allowed to post on Bright Side of the Sun, though they do have some good stuff, which I would love to comment, but, I'm a Spurs fan. Honestly, the only two spots that I really enjoy reading and posting on would have to be Pounding the Rock or Third Quarter Collapse. Anyways, that's not what I'm writing about here. However, as a final side note, if I were to actually get League Pass and start watching games on a regular basis, I would become a Spurs blogger, maybe I should... I'm seriously thinking about it. Anyways...

Onwards... I think Spurs are one of the other teams with a better chance of upsetting the Lakers in a 7-game series. Of course, there's a lot that has to go right in order for that to happen. What I want to do here, is discuss the things that "have to go right" in order for said upset (which I hope will happen) to happen. Spurs currently stand 3rd in the Western Conference, 1/2 a game behind Denver, 1/2 a game ahead of Houston, two teams, who, honestly, I don't think really have much of a chance. Should the season end with no change to the standings, the Spurs would be playing Portland for the first round and the winner of Denver/Utah (I pick Utah) in the second. Let me just say, those are two tough matchups. My personal hope is that Utah jumps to 5 to play Houston so then Lakers would have to go through them first before matching up with the Spurs (assuming both advance to the Western Conference Finals). Hope. Yeah.

So from a purely basketball standpoint, what do Spurs need? Well, firstly, the obvious answer is they need to be healthy. They need to be back 100%, full speed. The most noteable players they need to be certain are healthy are Manu Ginobili and Drew Gooden. Of course, they have to keep Tony Parker and Tim Duncan healthy for the remainder of the season too. One of the primary reasons I say this is because the Rockets and Nuggets are such good regular season teams, that I don't see them falling to a spot where the Spurs will play them (though maybe the Spurs might fall to a spot where they'll play them given their last two games). While I don't anticipate the Rockets or Nuggets making a whole lot of noise in the postseason (read: 1st round exit) I think they can stay in the top 4 spots and retain homecourt advantage. Additionally, I don't see Dallas gaining any ground to play anyone besides the Lakers, but that all could change, still, I think it's pretty unlikely. That means that the Spurs have to hit the playoffs running, because their first matchup is likely to be pretty challenging from the getgo, Portland, New Orleans, and Utah are the choices, and I'd really rather not have to face any of them in a playoff series. Manu is slowly working his way back, but he's not quite 100% yet, hopefully he makes a full recovery by playoffs.

If everyone is healthy, then we have to have Tony Parker continue to have a career season into the offseason. Next, Tim Duncan has to be, well, Tim Duncan. The big questionmarks then kind of fall to the role players. I know this all sounds kind of obvious, in the effect of saying "all the Spurs players just need to play well" but there does have to be some level of consistent production from Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, Drew Gooden, Kurt Thomas, and Roger Mason Jr in order for the Spurs to have a chance. While the core of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is a formidable offense (if healthy), you can't really bank on them wresting control of the game and pulling the team out of the fire as regularly or reliably as say Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, or even Paul Pierce. Parker has done it a couple of times, and it might save the Spurs in a couple of close ones, but it's not something to bank on. I think Bonner, Mason, and Bowen (and Udoka I guess) all know their role in the system, so I think the biggest x-factor here is going to be Drew Gooden. If Drew Gooden can play smart and work efficiently (i.e. not jack up flat-footed wing jumpers) then the Spurs are in good shape. What they need Gooden to do, is to grab rebounds (especially offensive ones) and get his points off those putbacks, and also to be able to keep his head on defense, which he's not known for doing, but still, a little effort wouldn't hurt.

Finally, I think Popovich needs to figure out his rotations. How to most effectively use his players.

MAKE MANU THE SUPER SIXTH MAN AGAIN
Firstly, I'm in agreement with most people that Manu should come off the bench. What this does is give the bench a lot of firepower and instant offense. I think that the most effective starting 5 for the Spurs thusfar this season has been Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, Duncan. It works, assuming (a fairly large if I guess) Mason, Finley, and Bonner can hit their open shots. Graydon a solid Spurs blogger makes a note of this in regards to the previous Spurs loss to OKC, well, not specifically in regards to the lineup but in regards to how Pop needs to work his rotations, there are other posts on it at Graydon (and co)'s blog. I know the subs aren't going to get tons of time come playoffs, but hey, the starters also need their rest, but I'd much rather see Hill, Ginobili, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas off than Vaughn, Mason, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas.

PLAY LESS MICHAEL FINLEY
One thing about this season I think that Pop has gone with is more firepower at the expense of some defense, which, I believe, given this roster is understandable. However, I don't know if that really dictates playing Michael Finley 30+ minutes per game. Right now, Finley's role is to hit open threes, which I believe given the minutes, either Udoka or Bowen can do effectively. So the second thing with the rotation is to limit Finley's minutes. I think those extra stops that Bowen/Udoka come up with will ultimately be more important, especially late game than the extra shots that Finley gets, especially when Finley isn't shooting well (in the last two losses Finley, while averaging 13 points has been shooting 10-28, that's 35.7%, ugh). In previous years, there was a lot of help from the middle from Duncan and one of Fransisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto, or Kurt Thomas, however, now with Bonner inserted as a key role in the lineup, I don't know that they can really afford to have another defensive liability on the floor.

PLAY MORE GEORGE HILL
Ok, so Hill might not be as great of a shooter as say Finley or Mason, but the idea is like that of playing less Finley and more Bowen/Udoka, the stops will be more important than the shots. One item of note that I found from the box score of the OKC game was really the rotation. I mean really, why is Jacque Vaughn playing 13+ minutes while George Hill gets a DNP? I know he's a rookie and inexperienced and all that, but isn't the last few games of the season a great time to get him that experience? While Vaughn knows how to make the offense go, he's really not much good on either end of the floor. Especially if Ginobili is the 6th man, I think that Hill wouldn't need to facilitate as much, since Ginobili will be there with him. This also moves Mason, who's not a great facilitator back to being the SG instead of the backup PG. I understand that Pop might want Mason on the floor, without getting considerably smaller (playing Mason at 2). While end-game situations might get iffy if Mason stays an SG since you might have to play Manu as a SF, I don't think that'll be as bad as more floor time for Michael Finley or something. I think he'll be crucial defensively especially as playoffs include the prospects of matching up against Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams.

I was discussing this with a friend (a Lakers fan) and while I think that a healthy Spurs outfit could sneak a 7 game series from the Lakers, there's one thing I failed to consider: David Stern hates the Spurs. That, I suppose is another uphill battle that the Spurs have to face, but at this point, it's all conspiracy theories. So these are what I think it will take for the Spurs to win. I believe that should everyone figure out the system and Pop sticks with a rotation that works, then Spurs have as good of a shot as anyone. Plus, it's an odd year.

Again Pop, here's my recommended rotation:

PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason Jr, Manu Ginobili
SF - Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka
PF - Matt Bonner, Drew Gooden
C - Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas

Don't play anyone else, though, I suppose you could stick Fab in there somewhere if he gets healthy again.

Revisiting the age question

So I talked about this earlier, sort of, and decided it'd be pretty interesting to visit again. So this time, let's do it by age. Here are my picks:

Over 30:

PG - Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd
SG - Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, Ray Allen
SF - Paul Pierce, Antawn Jamison
PF - Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki
C - Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, Marcus Camby

This team would probably play pretty slow, I can see a 5 on the floor of Chauncey Billups, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, and Shaq on the floor causing havoc on both ends, I like Billups and Allen being spot up shooters while KG, Duncan, and Shaq cause havoc all across the various post positions. I don't know that there are enough shooters for a Greg Popovich system to work, but I'd love to see Phil Jackson run his triangle offense through this. Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, and even to some extent Camby are all very good passing big men, and the length that they'd have in the frontcourt would make them a nightmare on either end of the court. Should they want more of a transition game I can see a lineup of Kidd, Bryant, Pierce (or Carter), Dirk (or Jamison or KG), and Camby being fairly effective too.

25-30:

PG - Deron Williams, Tony Parker
SG - Dwayne Wade, Joe Johnson, Brandon Roy
SF - LeBron James, Caron Butler, Carmelo Anthony
PF - Amar'e Stoudemire, Chris Bosh
C - Yao Ming, Pau Gasol

This would be like a dream Mike D'Antoni team if you slid Amar'e to the 5 slot and plugged Bosh in at the 4. You could also run super small by having LeBron play the 4 and Joe Johnson or Caron Buter take the 3. Either way this team is designed for running, outside of Yao and Gasol. They have at least 6 ball handlers (Williams, Parker, Wade, Johnson, Roy, James) that can all initiate the offense fairly effectively. A big question though would be on the defensive end and how they'd hold up there, especially in the frontcourt.

Under 25:

PG - Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose
SG - OJ Mayo, Monta Ellis
SF - Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay
PF - Al Jefferson, LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Andris Biedrins

This is a young team, so I would probably pick like Jerry Sloan or someone to coach it. While Mayo, Durant, and Gay aren't great 3 point shooters they can still space the floor. The big question will be if Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson can coexist as neither has a great mid-range game. However, it'd be really fun to watch Chris Paul run a high pick-and-roll with Dwight Howard.

Well? What's your pick?

What will it take?: Cleveland Cavaliers

I know, I know, I'm pretty long overdue with this post. I was hoping to get some of the more prominent names in the blogosphere involved, but alas, I don't really know anyone in the Cavs blogosphere, as I don't really follow the Cavs outside of the plethora of LeBron news that assaults my reader daily. So I guess that means I'm stuck doing my own analysis. Shucks. I'm sure that's what some of you are thinking.

Anyways, the Cavs have had a pretty strong showing ever since LeBron has been on the team, because well, LeBron is LeBron. The Cavs have made the playoffs for since the 2005-2006 season, and it's largely been on the shoulders of LeBron James, especially since Cleveland got shafted by Carlos Boozer in the 2004 free agency. Regardless, with a supporting cast featuring the likes of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Sasha Pavlovic, Eric Snow, Larry Hughes, and the like, LeBron carried the Cavs into the playoffs (albeit in a weaker Eastern Conference), and even as far as the NBA Finals past the Detroit Pistons in 2007, only to be swept by the San Antonio Spurs. I'm sure you're all familiar with the history so I'll try to fast-forward to today.

Basically, everyone (including Mike Brown) realized that the Cavs, while a strong defensive team, desperately needed offense outside of LeBron James. LeBron just wasn't the Allen Iverson type that dominated the ball, and honestly, good defensive teams were able to stop the Cavs' offense by simply bottlenecking the point of origin, LeBron, and since he was the only point of origin, it worked. During the past offseason, the Cavs realized this and made a three-way move sending Joe Smith to Oklahoma City, who in turn sent Luke Ridnour to Milwaukee, who subsequently handed Mo Williams over to Cleveland (and Desmond Mason to OKC). At that juncture, Mo Williams was the second most reliable scorer on the Bucks behind Michael Redd, but the emergence of Ramon Sessions had rendered Williams somewhat expendable. Williams was averaging 17.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists during his last season as a Buck.

What Williams added, was a player who could create his own shot, someone who didn't have to rely on LeBron to make offense, i.e. a second point of offensive origin. Currently, Mo Williams, is doing his Mo Williams thing, just on a better team (17.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists). It's definitely improved the Cavs significantly, as it has made their offense flow better, that and the fact that Mike Brown has developed an offense outside of "pass LeBron the ball at the top of the key". However, despite having the best record in the league (58-13), there is still no guarantee that the Cavs will win a title or even make it to the Finals. They still have to fight through an improved Eastern Conference playoff bracket and then take out whoever the West throws out at them. If they do make it to the Finals again, it won't be the trouncing they received 2 years ago, but again, it's not a given that they'll take it either.

So what's it gonna take? Well, ideally I would've said another scoring option, because to me honestly, I don't think that Mo Williams is a very good second option (I think Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a crappier third option), not that he's a bad player, but I think if you had another player who could score, maybe on the low block or something, they'd be more effective. However, that essentially fell through with the lack of a trade come the deadline. Mo Williams will have big shooting nights, but not consistently as say like Ray Allen, so what's going to have to happen, is that the role players are going to have to step it up.

One of the Cavs biggest weaknesses is offense in the low post, if you look at their front court, you have some pairing of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joe Smith, Anderson Varejao, and JJ Hickson. Let's assume that they get Ben Wallace back healthy, because I think they're going to need him come playoff time, so throw him into the mix too (Lorenzen Wright does not count). While Big Z is consistent, he's not a guy that can really score at will, and really makes a living off of open face up 12 footers than anything else.

Production-wise JJ Hickson and Joe Smith are virtually identical on a per 36 minute basis. The primary difference being that JJ Hickson coughs up the ball a lot more than Smith. While they're both solid, they, and Big Z, are by no means extraordinary offensive threats in the low block. I haven't seen much of Hickson play, but I'd imagine that he's not great or that his IQ isn't as high as Cavs might like if Brown is leery of playing him as a rookie in the post season and therefore is going with tried and true Joe Smith and his veteran exerpience. If we look at Varejao and Wallace, while Varejao isn't completely useless on offense, like Ben Wallace is, they're both more of an impact on the defensive end, which means they are even less of a scoring option than Big Z, Hickson, and Smith.

The offense then has to come from the shooters. Mo Williams, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, and Wally Sczerbiak have to keep up their solid shooting from this season in order to carry the team over the top. LeBron is going to find them, but they need to be able to make the shots that they get, and do so consistently, which I suppose is the case for most teams. However, I emphasize this for the Cavs simply because there really just aren't that many weapons to rely on, while Williams was certainly an upgrade (from Larry Hughes and Eric Snow), I don't know that it's necessarily enough to carry them over in 7 games straight, especially since they are a little weak in the low post (see Dallas Mavericks from 2005-2007). My focus in terms of offensive production I think really has to be Delonte West, who's definitely stepped it up for the brunt of the season, but really has to maintain that high level of play for the Cavs to win it all.

While the Cavs have always been a good defensive team, they can't really take all that for granted. With Ben Wallace down, the team really suffers defensively on the block, as Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are by no means stoppers. Joe Smith may know the system and is probably pretty good with the help, but honestly, we can't forget that he was criticized so much last season for his inability to guard Kevin Garnett in the playoffs. Joe Smith is not a young guy, and so his defense isn't really going to get better. They have to really help a lot on the defense with teams that play physical like Boston and Atlanta (and Orlando I guess), while I don't know that they'll win a lot of the frontcourt battles, they can't afford to be beat too much by the opposing bigs.

Of course the big assumption is that LeBron will be enough to tide this better team over. I think that in this off season if they can acquire a major piece, say a solid PF scorer or maybe another explosive swingman then they'd be solid. With what they have now, LeBron will have to continue to be pretty darn amazing, and everyone else is going to have to step it up.

Best Draft Class Revisited

So I did a post on the best draft class currently represented in the NBA. However, what if we were to do just the best draft class in the last 20 years? Who do you think would come out on top? I compiled the rosters using the ASG style format, 12 man rosters, so quality of depth does come into account. Here is my list:

1989

PG

Tim Hardaway

1990

PG

Gary Payton

1991

PG

Kenny Anderson

1992

PG

Latrell Sprewell

SG

Sean Elliot

SG

Kendall Gill

SG

Steve Smith

SG

Jim Jackson

SF

Glen Rice

SF

Cedric Ceballos

SF

Stacey Augmon

SF

Robert Horry

PF

Shawn Kemp

PF

Derrick Coleman

PF

Larry Johnson

PF

Christian Laettner

C

Vlade Divac

C

Antonio Davis

C

Dikembe Mutumbo

C

Shaquille O'Neal

6th

Mookie Blaylock

6th

Toni Kukoc

6th

Dale Davis

6th

Alonzo Mourning

7th

Cliff Robinson

7th

Elden Campbell

7th

Chris Gatling

7th

Tom Gugliotta

8th

Dana Barros

8th

Dennis Scott

8th

Luc Longley

8th

PJ Brown

9th

Danny Ferry

9th

Dee Brown

9th

Rick Fox

9th

Harold Miner

10th

Nick Anderson

10th

Terry Mills

10th

Eric Murdock

10th

Doug Christie

Res

Dino Rada

Res

Loy Vaught

Res

Billy Owens

Res

Popeye Jones

Res

BJ Armstrong

Res

Jayson Williams

Res

Greg Anthony

Res

Jon Barry

1993

PG

Penny Hardaway

1994

PG

Jason Kidd

1995

PG

Damon Stoudamire

1996

PG

Steve Nash

SG

Allan Houston

SG

Eddie Jones

SG

Jerry Stackhouse

SG

Kobe Bryant

SF

Jamal Mashburn

SF

Grant Hill

SF

Michael Finley

SF

Peja Stojakovic

PF

Vin Baker

PF

Juwan Howard

PF

Kevin Garnett

PF

Jermaine O'Neal

C

Chris Webber

C

Eric Montross

C

Rasheed Wallace

C

Marcus Camby

6th

Isaiah Rider

6th

Glenn Robinson

6th

Antonio McDyess

6th

Ray Allen

7th

Sam Cassell

7th

Donyell Marshall

7th

Theo Ratliff

7th

Shareef Abdur-Rahim

8th

Nick Van Exel

8th

Jalen Rose

8th

Kurt Thomas

8th

Allen Iverson

9th

Lindsey Hunter

9th

Brian Grant

9th

Brent Barry

9th

Stephon Marbury

10th

Shawn Bradley

10th

Charlie Ward

10th

Joe Smith

10th

Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Res

Bryon Russell

Res

Lamond Murray

Res

Bob Sura

Res

Derek Fisher

Res

Rodney Rogers

Res

Aaron Mckie

Res

Travis Best

Res

Erick Dampier

1997

PG

Chauncey Billups

1998

PG

Mike Bibby

1999

PG

Baron Davis

2000

PG

Jamal Crawford

SG

Stephen Jackson

SG

Vince Carter

SG

Richard Hamilton

SG

Michael Redd

SF

Tracy McGrady

SF

Paul Pierce

SF

Ron Artest

SF

Hedo Turkoglu

PF

Tim Duncan

PF

Dirk Nowitzki

PF

Lamar Odom

PF

Kenyon Martin

C

Tony Battie

C

Raef LaFrentz

C

Elton Brand

C

Jamaal Magloire

6th

Keith Van Horn

6th

Antawn Jamison

6th

Steve Francis

6th

Mike Miller

7th

Danny Fortson

7th

Rashard Lewis

7th

Shawn Marion

7th

Quentin Richardson

8th

Derek Anderson

8th

Bonzi Wells

8th

Andrei Kirilenko

8th

Stromile Swift

9th

Anthony Parker

9th

Jason Williams

9th

Manu Ginobili

9th

Joel Przybilla

10th

Antonio Daniels

10th

Al Harrington

10th

Jason Terry

10th

Keyon Dooling

Res

Bobby Jackson

Res

Larry Hughes

Res

Andre Miller

Res

Morris Peterson

Res

Tim Thomas

Res

Rasho Nesterovic

Res

Corey Maggette

Res

DeShawn Stevenson

2001

PG

Tony Parker

2002

PG

Roger Mason

2003

PG

TJ Ford

2004

PG

Devin Harris

SG

Joe Johnson

SG

Mike Dunleavy

SG

Dwayne Wade

SG

Kevin Martin

SF

Gerald Wallace

SF

Caron Butler

SF

LeBron James

SF

Andre Iguodala

PF

Pau Gasol

PF

Amar'e Stoudemire

PF

Chris Bosh

PF

Al Jefferson

C

Mehmet Okur

C

Yao Ming

C

Chris Kaman

C

Dwight Howard

6th

Tyson Chandler

6th

Carlos Boozer

6th

Carmelo Anthony

6th

Emeka Okafor

7th

Gilbert Arenas

7th

Nene Hilario

7th

David West

7th

Jameer Nelson

8th

Jason Richardson

8th

Tayshaun Prince

8th

Josh Howard

8th

Luol Deng

9th

Zach Randolph

9th

John Salmons

9th

Mo Williams

9th

Josh Smith

10th

Shane Battier

10th

Luis Scola

10th

Leandro Barbosa

10th

Ben Gordon

Res

Troy Murphy

Res

Drew Gooden

Res

Boris Diaw

Res

Andris Biedrins

Res

Richard Jefferson

Res

Matt Barnes

Res

Kendrick Perkins

Res

JR Smith

2005

PG

Chris Paul

2006

PG

Rajon Rondo

2007

PG

Rodney Stuckey

2008

PG

Derrick Rose

SG

Monta Ellis

SG

Brandon Roy

SG

Rudy Fernandez

SG

OJ Mayo

SF

Danny Granger

SF

Rudy Gay

SF

Kevin Durant

SF

Michael Beasley

PF

David Lee

PF

Paul Millsap

PF

Al Horford

PF

Kevin Love

C

Andrew Bynum

C

LaMarcus Aldridge

C

Spencer Hawes

C

Brook Lopez

6th

Deron Williams

6th

Andrea Bargnani

6th

Thaddeus Young

6th

Russell Westbrook

7th

Charlie Villanueva

7th

Randy Foye

7th

Jeff Green

7th

Jason Thompson

8th

Andrew Bogut

8th

Tyrus Thomas

8th

Al Thornton

8th

Courtney Lee

9th

Marvin Williams

9th

Ronnie Brewer

9th

Wilson Chandler

9th

Mario Chalmers

10th

Nate Robinson

10th

Renaldo Balkman

10th

Aaron Brooks

10th

George Hill

Res

Francisco Garcia

Res

Leon Powe

Res

Nick Young

Res

DJ Augustin

Res

Ryan Gomes

Res

Thabo Sefalosha

Res

Greg Oden

Res

Jerryd Bayless

So we start from 1989 and go to today, picking the best representation of each draft class, of course, I may not have picked who you think are the best players, so you can feel free to let me know if you disagree, this is just my opinion. While I think the 1996 draft class might still be the team to beat, with 2003 coming a close second, I'm actually surprised by the talent in 1999 and 2001. Of course, with the most recent drafts, it's still a bit early to tell, but let me know your pick!

Revamping All-Star Weekend

I know I have other posts I should be getting to, but this idea just popped in my head so I'm going to go with it before I forget it. Many people complain how All-Star weekend needs to be changed, I personally would like to see more basketball and less show-boating, though, that's what the regular season is for. What if we just did more basketball games with like in-game "achievements"? Though, that might get pretty messy. I wouldn't mind just having basketball though, forgoing the dunk contest, three point shootout, skills challenge, celebrity game, and Shooting for the Stars. Additionally, the big talk around All-Star break is always about who gets "snubbed".

I know, All-Star break is long over, but it never hurts to speculate though, right? So here's my take; 6-team tourney featuring the All-Stars by division not by conference. Rank the division by overall division win-loss performance, and then have the top coaching staff in each division coach. This way, even the bad teams have good representation in the festivities, and good players aren't penalized for being on bad teams. If we were to do it right now, here's what it would look like:

Eastern Conference Seeding:

1.) Southeast Division 181-177 (.506)
2.) Atlantic Division 175-181 (.492)
3.) Central Division 187-206 (.476)

Western Conference Seeding:

1.) Southwest Division 198-157 (.558)
2.) Northwest Division 174-183 (.487)
3.) Pacific Division 154- 201 (.433)

I suppose one difficulty will be figuring out how to schedule the whole thing, and that players might only want to play one game, as it is supposed to be a "break". Also given that each conference only has 3 divisions, it'd be hard to figure out who'd play more games and stuff like that. In the end, I suppose you could do like a round robin style play, where everyone plays everyone else, shorten the games a little, maybe make the rosters only 6 man and do it that way.

Picking teams also provides to be a slight challenge, but I think that each team should put in one player they think is most deserving (all teams then represented), and then the other coaches vote for the remaining players. Maybe the coaches could all nominate a panel, and from that selection the fans decide who gets to play. Teams won't all be equally represented, but certainly, the good players on poor teams get the recognition they deserve. Certainly, some of the smaller market players would get more exposure. Assuming we do normal All-Star size 12 man rosters, here are my picks, let's assume there are no season ending injuries, and everyone who started the season healthy, is still healthy:

Southeast Division (Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Miami Heat, Charlotte Bobcats, Washington Wizards)
Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy

PG: Jameer Nelson (Orlando Magic)
SG: Dwayne Wade (Miami Heat)
SF: Caron Butler (Washington Wizards)
PF: Antawn Jamison (Washington Wizards)
C: Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic)

Guards: Joe Johnson (Atlanta Hawks), Mike Bibby (Atlanta Hawks)
Forwards: Gerald Wallace (Charlotte Bobcats), Rashard Lewis (Orlando Magic)
Center: Emeka Okafor (Charlotte Bobcats)
Reserves: Josh Smith (Atlanta Hawks), Hedo Turkoglu (Orlando Magic)

Atlantic Division (Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Toronto Raptors)
Head Coach: Doc Rivers

PG: Devin Harris (New Jersey Nets)
SG: Vince Carter (New Jersey Nets)
SF: Paul Pierce (Boston Celtics)
PF: Kevin Garnett (Boston Celtics)
C: Chris Bosh (Toronto Raptors)

Guards: Ray Allen (Boston Celtics), Rajon Rondo (Boston Celtics)
Forwards: Andre Iguodala, (Philadelphia 76ers), David Lee (New York Knicks)
Center: Brook Lopez (New Jersey Nets)
Reserves: Al Harrington (New York Knicks), Andre Miller (Philadelphia 76ers)

Central Division (Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers)
Head Coach: Mike Brown

PG: Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)
SG: Michael Redd (Milwaukee Bucks)
SF: LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)
PF: Troy Murphy (Indiana Pacers)
C: Rasheed Wallace (Detroit Pistons)

Guards: Richard Hamilton (Detroit Pistons), Ben Gordon (Chicago Bulls)
Forwards: Danny Granger (Indiana Pacers), Richard Jefferson (Milwaukee Bucks)
Center: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Reserves: Mo Williams (Cleveland Cavaliers), Allen Iverson (Detroit Pistons)

Southwest Division (San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, New Orleans Hornets, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies)
Head Coach: Greg Popovich

PG: Chris Paul (New Orleans Hornets)
SG: OJ Mayo (Memphis Grizzlies)
SF: Ron Artest (Houston Rockets)
PF: Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs)
C: Yao Ming (Houston Rockets)

Guards: Tony Parker (San Antonio Spurs), Jason Terry (Dallas Mavericks)
Forwards: Rudy Gay (Memphis Grizzlies), Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks)
Center: David West (New Orleans Hornets)
Reserves: Josh Howard (Dallas Mavericks), Manu Ginobili (San Antonio Spurs)

Northwest Division (Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, Portland Trailblazers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves)
Head Coach: George Karl

PG: Deron Williams (Utah Jazz)
SG: Brandon Roy (Portland Trailblazers)
SF: Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder)
PF: Al Jefferson (Minnesota Timberwolves)
C: Mehmet Okur (Utah Jazz)

Guards: Chauncey Billups (Denver Nuggets), Randy Foye (Minnesota Timberwolves)
Forwards: Carmelo Anthony (Denver Nuggets), LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland Trailblazers)
Center: Nene Hilario (Denver Nuggets)
Reserves: Carlos Boozer (Utah Jazz), Paul Millsap (Utah Jazz)

Pacific Division (Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings)
Head Coach: Phil Jackson

PG: Baron Davis (Los Angeles Clippers)
SG: Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers)
SF: Stephen Jackson (Golden State Warriors)
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire (Phoenix Suns)
C: Shaquille O'Neal (Phoenix Suns)

Guards: Steve Nash (Pheonix Suns), Kevin Martin (Sacramento Kings)
Forwards: Pau Gasol (Los Angeles Lakers), Zach Randolph (Los Angeles Clippers)
Center: Marcus Camby (Los Angeles Clippers)
Reserves: Andrew Bynum (Los Angeles Lakers), Jamal Crawford (Golden State Warriors)

These are my picks. I personally think the Southwest division would be hard to top, but let me know what you think, and who you would switch out. Additionally, let me know if you can think of any methodology for the All-Star break that might work better. Just some tinkering for fun.

You kidding me?

Ok, everyone is up in arms talking about the recent hard foul against Rudy Fernandez by Trevor Ariza in the Lakers/Blazers matchup on Monday. The league then announced Tuesday that Ariza would not be suspended, but that Odom would be for leaving the bench in the ensuing "scrum" as the people around the internet like to call it. Now don't get me wrong, basketball just wouldn't be fun to watch if it weren't a contact sport, but still, sometimes you can go too far, that's why we have rules in place. Matt Moore at Hardwood Paroxysm writes an interesting piece about how the Lakers just play reckless, not dirty, just reckless. Normally I'd let that be that.

However, Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold brought up an interesting article in his preview of tonight's Houston game. The article talks about how this kind of play is hard to judge.

"Ariza obviously made contact with Fernandez's head, but he also came reasonably close to getting a block."

Normally I wouldn't have taken exception to something like this, unfortunate accidents like this happen, look at Gerald Wallace's collapsed lung. I mean, no, this is no David West karate chop, which is much worse, despite the fact that Mike Miller was fine whereas both the cases involving the Lakers required hospital attention for the players fouled.

First I want to say, the fact that two of the instances happened to be Lakers doesn't mean I'm trying to find beef with the Lakers, however, if it's a trend it might be something that you want to look at. I'm not going to take an extremist view and say the Lakers play dirty, becuase, honestly, I don't think they do, I think they play effectively, but now am more inclined to agree with Matt Moore that it might be somewhat sloppy, reckless, and therefore dangerous to other players, this could have been anyone else.

Honestly, I think for this thing, I'm on the wagon that Ariza should have been suspended, while there was no "malicious intent" the fact of the matter, it was still a dumb play. I don't care if he's going for the ball, people look at this play and say, "oh he's going for a block, it's all good, just a hard foul" because it doesn't matter if he's trying to get the block through the other player's head? Sure a couple of inches and he might've gotten all ball, a couple inches in the other direction he could've ended Rudy Fernandez's basketball career with a hard swipe across the neck. One commenter noted that because the ball was near Rudy's head it makes it "hard to fault him [Ariza] for making contact with Rudy's head because the head was near the ball which Trevor aimed for." Again... it's ok if he tries to block the ball through Rudy's head?

Kurt mentions:

"I guarantee if Fernandez had done that to Ariza and there was no suspension, at least half this board would have flipped out."

I would've asked for Fernandez to be suspended though. Just because he didn't get one doesn't mean he doesn't deserve one. Think about it.

What will it take?: LA Lakers

I was considering doing a piece on how Shaq needs to learn how to shut his mouth, but there's already a lot of literature out there on that (ok maybe not "literature, but there's a bit of writing on it). Then, I thought about maybe talking about how Celtics defense maybe isn't so much stifling as it is dirty. So I decided, to move forward with a post that I've been meaning to get to for a while, that is, a closer look at all the different contenders in the league, which I boiled down to 2 per conference with a "dark horse" type team thrown in for kicks. I've tried to get some external input on this as well, so here goes:

The Lakers are currently the best team in the league, at least record-wise. A lot of people are gearing for a rematch of last year's finals showdown (Boston and LA). Kenny Smith continually talks about how the Lakers are the only team to improve their roster from last season (it's on one of the Inside the NBA episodes, don't remember which one) significantly. I can agree with his analysis that having Gasol for a whole year and having a healthy Ariza, even without Bynum again, the Lakers are improved, yes. While the other teams in the West haven't made a significant move, but it's hard to say that other teams haven't "improved" either. I'm not going to get into that though.

Last season, the Lakers had a solid run through the Western Conference, starting with a sweep of Denver in the first round, a fairly even 6 game matchup against Utah, and then a convincing 5 game rout of San Antonio (despite some controversy). I'm sure they're looking for another run again this season, but this time, hopefully overcome the Eastern Conference team that they face. After losing to Boston in 5 games in last year's Finals, the Lakers were accused of being soft, unable to bang with the more physical Boston frontline of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. Maybe that was the case, and they hoped that the return of Bynum would add some physicality to their game, which it did, until he got hurt, again.

One thing that the Lakers have definitely established thusfar this season is that they play very good team basketball, be it on the offensive end or defensive end. Phil Jackson's triangle offense emphasizes a lot of ball movement and when it's clicking, it's nigh impossible to stop. The offense has always been there, the defense however, is what the Lakers need. Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold says:

"When the Lakers have wanted to, they have been a very good defensive team this season, playing a much more aggressive style in the sense that there is a lot of help from bigs to keep guys from driving into the lane and getting easy buckets (think Paul Pierce in the Finals last year). The Lakers are going to make teams beat them from the outside, not in the paint. The Lakers played that system well early in the season, but since their focus and commitment on the defensive end has been spotty. It can't be in the playoffs, especially the later rounds. I think you'll see the last few weeks of the season that playing more focused defense will be something the coaching staff and players will talk a lot about."

It kind of goes without saying that one of the first priorities for the Lakers is to get Bynum back for the post-season, to get him back healthy, because the main culprits of the Lakers' interior softness would be their current frontcourt tandem of Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Should Bynum get back healthy, it provides a solid interior presence that the Lakers desperately needed against more physical bigs. One thing Kenny Smith notes in his preview of this Thursday's Lakers/Spurs matchup is that the Lakers have a really hard time guarding Tim Duncan. If you notice from the highlights, a lot of times it's just Duncan scoring over Lamar Odom, who isn't a great post defender. Bynum gives that big body that can press against Duncan and force him out of the paint, that doesn't completely nullify Duncan, but it does make his shots more difficult. Additionally, while Derek Fisher is a smart defender, he's also an aging player, he's not quite as fast as he once was, and so guards like Tony Parker usually have their way with him, the damage done by those kind of slashing guards is mitigated significantly with an interior help presence of someone like Andrew Bynum. Again, Kurt addresses this issue:

"They need Andrew Bynum back, not for any scoring but for the way he protects the paint on defense and grabs rebounds. Bynum also provides depth — right now the Lakers second unit is struggling because it cannot generate offense outside the fast break. So Odom or Gasol have to stay in with them, racking up a lot of minutes, to provide a good scoring option in the half court. Bynum's return will mean more regular minutes for everyone (Bynum may come off the bench, at least at first). In the playoffs, the depth matters less because the key players can and will take on more minutes, but the Lakers need that depth because it gives Phil Jackson more matchup options in the playoffs. It allows him to go big or small, to do a number of things that will frustrate opponents."

Of course, while it's certain that the Lakers will likely clinch the top spot in the Western Conference, a good regular season record isn't really indicative of post season success. However, this Lakers team does look a lot more balanced than the 2007 Dallas Mavericks did. Granted there's a little luck involved, what with the matchups, but the first round looks like it'll be against a floundering Dallas Mavericks, which I think the Lakers should take easily. However, they really can't let that get to them. For the Lakers, the talent is all there, I'm sure having been so close to winning the Larry O'Brien trophy, the desire should be too, I think the main thing is for them to focus on each game in front of them as each series progresses. If the 2007 Golden State Warriors taught us anything, it's that you can't really take anyone for granted in a 7-game playoff series. Certainly it would help if there was an upset here or there, however, and none of the teams ranked 2-7 in the West will be an easy out, since they all deserve to be there.

I think the most serious threats though that the Lakers will face would be Utah Jazz and the San Antonio Spurs. I feel like Denver, Houston, and New Orleans will falter when it switches over from one-and-done regular season games to the grueling 7-game matchups against such high caliber teams. Portland honestly, just hasn't really been there, so while that might be held against them, they are something of an x-factor. Nonetheless, I think the Blazers still have some growing so experience wins out in the end. In terms of favorable matchups, despite having homecourt advantage, the Lakers would really want the Jazz to beat out the Rockets for the 3rd place spot, so that San Antonio and Utah would play each other before facing the Lakers, instead of the Lakers running the possibility of having to play both of them (again) in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I personally don't think there's a team that's invulnerable to defeat, and I think the other contenders in the West have as equal a chance as the Eastern contenders to keep the Lakers from winning that championship. That being said, I think it's equally likely that the Lakers could win it all this season. There are still a number of games left in the season, and too many unknowns both in LA and on the other squads for anyone to say for sure.

Finally, I think for the Lakers taking home a championship banner, is beyond Kobe doing his Kobe thing, the rest of the players need to step it up. The entire Lakers team needs to be playing at that higher level and not have to fall back on Kobe shooting them out of holes. That means that the "gel" guys, I think namely Lamar Odom, have to be able to pick it up when their number is called. Kobe's going to get a ton of defensive attention, and to a lesser extent Gasol, which means that the reserve roles have to be willing to take big shots. Fisher doesn't have that problem, but my concern would be more for Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, and the like. While the reserves usually don't get as much burn with starters willing to play more minutes, progressive fatigue can still catch up, especially if series start dragging on to 6-7 games, so the role players really have to go out and get their own on the floor.

That was pretty dense so let me bullet point what I think the Lakers need for success, adding on a few peripheral notes while I'm at it:

• A healthy Bynum to return for the post season
• Focus on the defensive end, especially in the paint
  
• Kobe being Kobe
• Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom not being fatigued by too many minutes with Bynum out
• Odom and Luke Walton have to step it up
• Keep running the triangle
  

That's it for now, if you have a comment feel free to leave it, this is how I see it. I'll be posting my predictions for the other contenders hopefully soon.