I haven't seen the games really all that much, but it is sort of interesting that in the first two games of the series LeBron has already had 31 attempts at the charity stripe. 31 in two games (14 in the game 1, 17 in game 2). That's a lot. Especially when you consider that EVERY PISTON COMBINED has only seen 28 attempts. [Insert David Stern conspiracy theory]
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Nonplussed...
I don't know if I'm the only one that thinks this, but is it me, or do refs like LeBron? A lot. No one's really mentioning it though. [Insert David Stern conspiracy theory]. It was a moderately big deal when Leon Powe went to the line 13 times in game 2 of the Finals last year, a big deal because the entire Lakers squad only went to the line 10 times. Ok, I can see how that's weird, I mean, it is the Lakers, and it is Leon Powe.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
PLEASE STOP SAYING THAT MO WILLIAMS HAD A "MONSTER YEAR"
He didn't, he really didn't. He's a good player that went from a bad team to a better team. Saying that had an above average year would be saying that he's having a sort of breakout year, that he's playing better than he was before. He's not. He's playing the same game for a better team. End of story. To say that Mo Williams is the difference maker is almost like saying that if Cavs didn't get Mo Williams and instead swapped LeBron for Michael Redd, Milwaukee would be hands down the best team in the league. Really? I don't think so. I was bothered because Charles Barkley said that Mo Williams is having "a monster year" this season. Can you please do some research before throwing out arbitrary analysis?
Let's look at Mo's per game averages for the last 4 years:
| Mo Williams | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 | 2007-2008 | 2008-2009 |
| MPG | 26.4 | 36.3 | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| FGA | 10.8 | 15.4 | 13.9 | 13.9 |
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.6% | 48.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PM | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| 3P% | 38.2% | 34.6% | 38.5% | 43.6% |
| FT% | 85.0% | 85.5% | 85.6% | 91.2% |
| PPG | 12.1 | 17.3 | 17.2 | 17.8 |
| RPG | 2.5 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| APG | 4.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 4.1 |
| SPG | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| BPG | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| TO | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.2 |
His scoring average has pretty much been the same ever since he got more playing time, so his overall production on the Bucks is the same as his output on the Cavs. The main difference being that he takes and makes more 3s, which I would argue, is simply because a.) he's asked to take more of those shots and b.) he gets better looks at those shots because of LeBron. I'm not really going to go a whole lot into the players Williams plays with on Cleveland and compare them to who he played with in Milwaukee, but I'm going to briefly say that LeBron James is better at getting his teammates better shots or rather even shots in general than Michael Redd. Don't believe me? Let's look at the per 36 numbers then:
| Mo Williams | 2005-2006 | 2006-2007 | 2007-2008 | 2008-2009 |
| FGA | 14.8 | 15.3 | 13.7 | 14.3 |
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.6% | 48.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PM | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| 3P% | 38.2% | 34.6% | 38.5% | 43.6% |
| FT% | 85.0% | 85.5% | 85.6% | 91.2% |
| Pts | 16.5 | 17.1 | 17.0 | 18.3 |
| Reb | 3.4 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Asst | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 4.2 |
| Stl | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Blk | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| TO | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
Williams's output is pretty identical, instead of passing the ball a couple more times he's picking better shots to take and making them, hence increase in scoring, decrease in assists. Definitely solid, but nothing really stellar, honestly, not really production I think would put Cleveland over the top. So what is putting Cleveland over the top then? My call is improved play from players you weren't expecting to do this well.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
A Quick Look at Free Agent Prospects
So I mentioned some names in a comment in Tim Varner's post on 48 minutes. These are in my opinion, the best available wings in terms of both offense and defense, available come 2009 free agency.
Marquis Daniels
Williams is also like 3rd or 4th down the line on the offensive chart in Woodson's offense behind Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, and possibly even Al Horford. Still, he's averaging 14 points per game this season. Additionally, he's significantly improved his 3 point shooting, hitting for this season a decent 35.5% making about 1 per contest. I think playing in a wing position (which Woodson does, playing Smith at the PF slot) is where he is strongest and will make a huge impact. Unlike his rookie classmates; Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Andrew Bogut, Williams and Raymond Felton are the only remaining top 5 picks from the class of 2005 to not reach a contract extension agreement with their respective teams. Of course, the question then ends up being, will Atlanta just pick up Williams's qualifying offer or will they match anything someone else throws at him? Most people believe that re-signing Williams ought to be the Hawks' priority, but given how they handled Josh Smith's contract, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up walking.
Josh Childress:
Hm.... solid defender that hits threes... Herrmann lit it up towards the end of the 2007 season when the Bobcats pretty much gave up. He's super efficient at scoring when he gets playing time, but thusfar in the Detroit rotation has been somewhat buried. He's already 29 but still, I'd imagine he has a bit of ball left in him. He's an unrestricted free after this season with Detroit, and I don't know that they'd look to keep him. Solid guy for whichever team needs some spot offense and solid defense at the 3.
Of course there are other big names out there, Ron Artest, Shawn Marion, Hedo Turkoglu should he opt out, other names to look at would include Trevor Ariza though I doubt Lakers let him walk.
Marquis Daniels
"Offense: Gets about a fifth of his offensive from each of fast break opportunities, pick and rolls, and spot ups. Shows solid one-on-one skills as well. Decent jump shot. Doesn’t show ideal follow through. Won’t hit many three pointers, but he’ll take them when he is open. Takes some questionable shots with a hand in his face. Shows decent footwork, but could stand to work on his fundamentals in that regard. Won’t always set his feet consistently. Good ball handler. Can play a bit of point guard. Not a great scorer off the dribble, but can create for teammates. Likes to pull up for jumpers when he drives right. Will work hard off the ball. Does the little things. Pretty good finisher at the basket. Will play above the rim when he has space. Mediocre foul shooter. Valuable as a passer and scorer, but not a standout in either. Defense: The Pacers most versatile perimeter defender. Can defend all three backcourt positions. More effective against the two guard positions than small forwards. Shows great intensity and effort on the defensive end. Displays tremendous lateral quickness and fast hands. Plays physically, but doesn’t foul. Very intelligent in that way. Does a good job reading passers off the ball and jumping in front of telegraphed passes. Doesn’t do a whole lot of rebounding. Very sound on the defensive end. "
Daniels has definitely has really had an opportunity to shine this season, especially given the injuries Indiana faced to Mike Dunleavy and also some to Danny Granger, this post was written a year ago, and I definitely think he's improved some. He's still not a great 3 pt shooter by any stretch of the imagination, but he's definitely improved his rebounding, getting it up to 4.6 per contest, a pretty respectable number for a perimeter player, epsecially usually as an off guard. The biggest question then, would be whether or not Indiana will pick up Daniels's team option which is valued at $7.3 million. It's a mite expensive so I can imagine Indiana letting him walk and him signing somewhere else
Marvin Williams:
"Offense: Has improved his jump shot significantly since entering the League. Shoots no-dribble jumpers in two-thirds of his spot-up situations; a telling sign of where he is most comfortable at this point. Gets most of his other touches from one-on-one dribble drives and in transition, but seems extremely content hoisting shots from the perimeter when defenders give him space. Able to shoot an above average percentage on mechanics alone. Kicks his legs from time to time when in rhythm, which makes him look less fluid. Could stand to take that out of his game and improve his footwork. Needs to improve both his consistency and aggressiveness to reach his potential. Asked to post up periodically. Shows some decent moves down low. Tends to avoid turning to the baseline when posted up on the right side, but shows the ability to score over both shoulders at a decent clip from the left block. Doesn’t crash the glass as hard as he should given his athleticism. His future remains on the perimeter, and he needs to improve his ball-handling skills and range in order to take advantage of his physical assets. Wouldn’t hurt him to cut down on his turnovers and look to assert himself off the dribble more frequently either. Has shown the ability to get to the line at a high rate. His ability to shoot a good percentage will make his development as a slasher that much more worthwhile.
Defense: A tweener? Doesn’t translate his physical talents to the
defensive end as well he translates them to the offensive end. Has a tough time defending the post. Is susceptible to bigger more experienced post players. Can make an impact defending the perimeter. Ability to contest shots on the perimeter, coupled with the fact that he doesn’t take a lot of risks shows how solid a defender he is. A little bit too upright in his stance, which makes it tough for him to stay in front of quicker small forwards. Commits some unnecessary fouls, but that shouldn’t be a problem as he acclimates to his competition. Rebounds the ball at a good rate."
Williams is also like 3rd or 4th down the line on the offensive chart in Woodson's offense behind Joe Johnson, Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, and possibly even Al Horford. Still, he's averaging 14 points per game this season. Additionally, he's significantly improved his 3 point shooting, hitting for this season a decent 35.5% making about 1 per contest. I think playing in a wing position (which Woodson does, playing Smith at the PF slot) is where he is strongest and will make a huge impact. Unlike his rookie classmates; Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Andrew Bogut, Williams and Raymond Felton are the only remaining top 5 picks from the class of 2005 to not reach a contract extension agreement with their respective teams. Of course, the question then ends up being, will Atlanta just pick up Williams's qualifying offer or will they match anything someone else throws at him? Most people believe that re-signing Williams ought to be the Hawks' priority, but given how they handled Josh Smith's contract, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up walking.
Josh Childress:
"Offense: Has a very smooth offensive game, but is the owner of one of the League’s most awkward jump shots. Displays a major hitch in his jumper and releases it with minimal elevation. Knocks it down consistently enough not to not have to fix it. Scores efficiently, which is the result of great shot selection. Shows a deceptive first-step. Is able to attack the rim off the dribble, and sets his man up by moving well off the ball. Isn’t the most efficient finisher due to his lack of vertical explosiveness. Does a good job of using his length and crafty footwork to beat defenders to the rim or get to the line. Doesn’t pull up off the dribble very often, since he connects with those kinds of shots at a pedestrian rate. Shows range out to three-point range, but his form gives him a very small margin for error, which is represented in his three-point percentage. Finds his offense in transition situations and drives off the dribble, both of which embody his desire to run the floor and his capacity to handle the ball well. Has good court vision, passing ability, and decision-making skills. Doesn’t play all that much point-forward since Joe Johnson fills that role. Won’t light up the scoreboard, but is a consistent contributor that gets his baskets in the flow of the offense. Provides a steadying presence on the floor in Atlanta, despite his age, and is a valuable asset in half-court sets.
Defense: Atlanta’s most fundamentally sound defender. Doesn’t have ideal foot-speed, but has tremendous defensive intangibles and a great wingspan. Reads ball-handlers extremely well, and creates turnovers by getting into passing lanes. Length and effort make him a very good perimeter defender. Lacks the bulk to defend strong players in the post, but makes an effort to deny entry passes by working hard to take away angles. Gets beat off the dribble periodically, but doesn’t give up anything easy at the rim. Does a good job of rotating with the ball. Isn’t reckless when closing out his man off of skip passes. Still manages to block a few shots due in large part to his long arms and good timing. Has great timing and knows how toget his team extra possessions."
I don't think Hawks really have Childress that much on their radar, but if he does decide to return to the States to play ball, it's entirely possible that the Hawks will match anything that anyone throws at him, especially given how many free agents the Hawks have this coming off-season. However, it's also entirely possible that the Hawks just don't want anything more to do with Childress after how they handled him last season and his subsequent departure for Greece. Hope he does come back, does have to add some serious weight though.
Walter Herrmann:
DraftExpress didn't have a writeup of him, so I pulled a quick one from Sportsnet.
"Assets
Athletic and smart, he is a very solid player fundamentally who can excel in either up-tempo or halfcourt schemes. Drives fearlessly to the hoop and can hit from anywhere in the offensive zone. Unselfish, and an underrated natural scorer.Flaws
While solid defensively he is a bit of a 'tweener (not really a small forward and not really a power forward). Needs to find his niche at the NBA level."
Hm.... solid defender that hits threes... Herrmann lit it up towards the end of the 2007 season when the Bobcats pretty much gave up. He's super efficient at scoring when he gets playing time, but thusfar in the Detroit rotation has been somewhat buried. He's already 29 but still, I'd imagine he has a bit of ball left in him. He's an unrestricted free after this season with Detroit, and I don't know that they'd look to keep him. Solid guy for whichever team needs some spot offense and solid defense at the 3.
Of course there are other big names out there, Ron Artest, Shawn Marion, Hedo Turkoglu should he opt out, other names to look at would include Trevor Ariza though I doubt Lakers let him walk.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Friday, April 3, 2009
What about those old guys?
So there are a number of older players that in the final year of their contracts, and a lot of people are wondering what will happen to them. Well, at least I am. One path might be retirement, another path of course, might be to sign with a different team, then again, maybe they'll sign with the same team. Who knows? Now, by old, in the NBA at least, generally we mean over 30, though some are older than others. Given the state of the economy and the shrinking salary cap (and therefore shrinking MLE) free agents will definitely have a harder time finding jobs on teams for whatever salary they are demanding. Of course, with these players it might be even more of an issue as they're all in the downside of their careers, playing on their proverbial "last legs". Who'll go where? First, let's look at who's available:
Jason Kidd - PG - Dallas Mavericks - 36 years old
Mike Bibby - PG - Atlanta Hawks - 30 years old
Allen Iverson - SG - Detroit Pistons - 33 years old
Rasheed Wallace - PF/C - Detroit Pistons - 34 years old
Andre Miller - PG - Philadelphia 76ers - 33 years old
Shawn Marion - SF/PF - Toronto Raptors - 30 years old
All the other unrestricted frees are still pretty young, so let's look at these guys. All of them are in their heyday contracts, Iverson and Kidd still making $21 million for this season, Marion making $17 million, Bibby making $15 million, Rasheed making $13 million, and Miller pretty much $10 million. The only player capable of making anything remotely near what he's currently making I think is Miller, just because he has had the most solid year of contribution averaging 16.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. So all these players are definitely getting a huge paycut, and I think they should definitely realize that, especially as they're all getting towards the end of their careers (especially Kidd). So here are my scenarios for them:
Jason Kidd
I think Kidd will be the most interesting as he'll be able to have still a pretty big impact wherever he goes, since well, he's Jason Kidd, a future Hall of Famer PG living legend. That being said, Kidd is most definitely on his last legs, it's showing. There's always kind of been a lot of press around Kidd, especially with his recent comments about playing with LeBron. However, I don't think that's really realistic, as Kidd isn't really the player that the Cavs are looking for, specifically because they have LeBron. I think Kenny Smith says somewhere (maybe on Yahoo) that Kidd will probably stay in Dallas, simply because nobody else really wants to pay him, and Dallas would need to figure out his replacement if he did leave. Additionally, it would be the final concession that Jason Kidd for Devin Harris was in fact, a stupid trade. However, Dallas also needs to get a new look since what they have hasn't worked, but in fact has gotten progressively worse since their failed 2006 NBA Finals showing. Kidd isn't in the future, and Mavs might be on the road to rebuilding, then again, maybe not.
So Dallas is an option, one thing I would like to see is Kidd ending up somewhere where he'd be used more as a mentor for younger point guards than really for his on court contributions. I make mention of Portland in a previous post. If the Blazers could land Kidd for cheaper, that would enable them to trade Blake, Sergio, and Outlaw to bolster other parts of their roster, namely the SF spot. I really relish the idea of Kidd taking a raw talent like Jerryd Bayless under his wing, and since Bayless is such a natural scorer, having someone like Kidd mentor him in other aspects of being a PG is just that much more appealing. This works best with Kidd and not the other older PGs (Miller and Bibby) simply because it's Jason Kidd, he's a legend, and while he's lost a step, he's still that legend, while the other guys, are just solid PGs to show him the ropes, and Steve Blake does a serviceable job of that. If you'll notice in the previous post, Coup also addresses the whole defense issue and makes a point to show that if the help is there, then Kidd isn't that big of a liability.
By that same idea, Miami might be another destination, and while Chalmers has definitely stepped out on his own, and as much as I would enjoy a Dwayne Wade/Jason Kidd backcourt, I think the Heat are more worried about bolstering their interior and depth a little more. However, the possibility remains, since they do have Jermaine O'Neal. A lot of whether or not anything gets done on the PG front though is if the front office is confident in Jermaine's ability to stay healthy and if they're ok with how Mario Chalmers is doing now.
Mike Bibby
I honestly can't see Bibby anywhere other than in Atlanta, then again, I'm never sure what the Atlanta front office is going to pull in the off season, so I can't say that with a whole lot of gusto. If you watch NBATVs Strength of the Team segment from this week, you'll find Kenny Smith interviewing Hawks' coach Mike Woodson, who says that Bibby is the best thing to happen to his coaching career. That's some pretty high praise there, so I think there will definitely be a push for Bibby to come back. Will he take a paycut so the Hawks can resign Marvin Williams? That remains to be seen.
Allen Iverson
Well, Allen Iverson is already flirting with retirement. It's pretty understandable given that Iverson has never come off the bench before. However, no one's really listening, why? Because Dumars made it clear that bringing Iverson to the Pistons was really more of a money move for the future than anything else. Dumars didn't see Iverson as the player who carried the 2000-2001 Philadelphia 76ers to the NBA Finals, but as an attractive $21 million expiring contract. That being said, Iverson definite still has game, just how much? Not too sure, but it's still there. He might not be as great as he once was, but he can still make a difference when need be. Needless to say, that means that Iverson will not be returning for another tenure with the Pistons.
Where does he fit? Well, I think it was Tas Melas from the Basketball Jones that said this, but please correct me if I'm wrong, the Charlotte Bobcats look like a pretty Iversonian team. They even have his 2000-2001 head coach, Larry Brown. The Bobcats actually just look like an upgraded version of the 01 76ers, really, they do. I mean, granted Iverson has lost a couple of steps since then, but hey, wouldn't you say that a squad of Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Emeka Okafor, DJ Augustin, DeSagana Diop, Vladamir Radmanovic, Nazr Mohammed, and Juwan Howard at least as good as if not better than Eric Snow, George Lynch, Tyrone Hill, Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie, Kevin Ollie, Jumaine Jones, Todd MacCulloch, and Matt Geiger? Ok sure, the Bobcats can definitely get better, but they have a solid bunch of role players right now and are just looking for someone to take over the game. Raymond Felton is probably out of the picture, but the Hawks definitely could use a game changer like Allen Iverson, creating on the offense. I'm not gonna go into the details of parallels between Raja Bell and Aaron McKie and Emeka Okafor and Dikembe Mutombo, but I think it's not a bad place for Iverson to end his career. They're pushing for the playoffs already without him, and I think he can take them a little further.
Rasheed Wallace
As mentioned in the link above in my post on Jason Kidd, I think that Rasheed Wallace can be big on the Spurs, if he can fit into the system. I'd love to see him playing next to Duncan, and if he brings the defensive effort, and is willing to play for cheap, then it's a hit. Dumars has also made it clear that Wallace isn't in the long-term Pistons picture, so it's a final hurrah or retirement. Of course, Wallace has mentioned before that he might want to retire, but I think if he's willing to play for a contender, there are a lot of teams that could really use his length, defense, and versatility. Spurs seem like the best place where they can utilize that and also contain his quirkiness. He'd be like the ultimate combination of Robert Horry and Dennis Rodman. While it'd be interesting to see him play next to maybe someone like Dwight Howard, I think the Magic are going to be focused on trying to retain Hedo Turkoglu, and then would try to sign a cheaper, more workmanlike PF to play next to Howard.
Andre Miller
Miller is a pretty intersting case because he's been playing so well for Philadelphia. However, there are rumors that his tenure might be up, especially as he's not really getting younger. He's a solid PG to say the least, and I probably see him remaining at Philadelphia for a little while, as he's been the steady floor captain that has really helped keep the team running. However, should Kidd leave, I can see the Mavericks turning an eye at him. Another option might be Sacramento, who are looking for someone to take up the reigns where Beno Udrih could not. Portland was interested in Miller purportedly before the trade deadline, but I honestly think that they wouldn't be getting significantly better acquiring Miller.
Shawn Marion
Last but not least is the enigmatic Shawn Marion. The Matrix has definitely looked utterly lost ever since he left Steve Nash and the run-and-gun game of Mike D'Antoni. Not really sure how things are going to work out for him, really, he's the hardest guy to place. He's not really very good offensively, at least in terms of creating his own shot, but he's a solid rebounder for his size and defends fairly well. I don't see him commanding another $17 million, especially in the current economic situation, but it's possible that some team might still overpay him. A team that naturally comes to mind as a fit would be the Golden State Warriors, who desperately need defense and rebounding. Of course, the arrival of Marion may mean a hindrance of the development of Anthony Randolph, though, if the Warriors are set on getting rid of Crawford and playing Maggette as a super 6th man, then having Randolph play the 3 and Marion the 4 may not be a bad idea. Not sure where Brandan Wright would fit into all of this, but hey, I think that right now, Warriors are the one team that Marion could go to and make a positive impact.
Jason Kidd - PG - Dallas Mavericks - 36 years old
Mike Bibby - PG - Atlanta Hawks - 30 years old
Allen Iverson - SG - Detroit Pistons - 33 years old
Rasheed Wallace - PF/C - Detroit Pistons - 34 years old
Andre Miller - PG - Philadelphia 76ers - 33 years old
Shawn Marion - SF/PF - Toronto Raptors - 30 years old
All the other unrestricted frees are still pretty young, so let's look at these guys. All of them are in their heyday contracts, Iverson and Kidd still making $21 million for this season, Marion making $17 million, Bibby making $15 million, Rasheed making $13 million, and Miller pretty much $10 million. The only player capable of making anything remotely near what he's currently making I think is Miller, just because he has had the most solid year of contribution averaging 16.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. So all these players are definitely getting a huge paycut, and I think they should definitely realize that, especially as they're all getting towards the end of their careers (especially Kidd). So here are my scenarios for them:
Jason Kidd
I think Kidd will be the most interesting as he'll be able to have still a pretty big impact wherever he goes, since well, he's Jason Kidd, a future Hall of Famer PG living legend. That being said, Kidd is most definitely on his last legs, it's showing. There's always kind of been a lot of press around Kidd, especially with his recent comments about playing with LeBron. However, I don't think that's really realistic, as Kidd isn't really the player that the Cavs are looking for, specifically because they have LeBron. I think Kenny Smith says somewhere (maybe on Yahoo) that Kidd will probably stay in Dallas, simply because nobody else really wants to pay him, and Dallas would need to figure out his replacement if he did leave. Additionally, it would be the final concession that Jason Kidd for Devin Harris was in fact, a stupid trade. However, Dallas also needs to get a new look since what they have hasn't worked, but in fact has gotten progressively worse since their failed 2006 NBA Finals showing. Kidd isn't in the future, and Mavs might be on the road to rebuilding, then again, maybe not.
So Dallas is an option, one thing I would like to see is Kidd ending up somewhere where he'd be used more as a mentor for younger point guards than really for his on court contributions. I make mention of Portland in a previous post. If the Blazers could land Kidd for cheaper, that would enable them to trade Blake, Sergio, and Outlaw to bolster other parts of their roster, namely the SF spot. I really relish the idea of Kidd taking a raw talent like Jerryd Bayless under his wing, and since Bayless is such a natural scorer, having someone like Kidd mentor him in other aspects of being a PG is just that much more appealing. This works best with Kidd and not the other older PGs (Miller and Bibby) simply because it's Jason Kidd, he's a legend, and while he's lost a step, he's still that legend, while the other guys, are just solid PGs to show him the ropes, and Steve Blake does a serviceable job of that. If you'll notice in the previous post, Coup also addresses the whole defense issue and makes a point to show that if the help is there, then Kidd isn't that big of a liability.
By that same idea, Miami might be another destination, and while Chalmers has definitely stepped out on his own, and as much as I would enjoy a Dwayne Wade/Jason Kidd backcourt, I think the Heat are more worried about bolstering their interior and depth a little more. However, the possibility remains, since they do have Jermaine O'Neal. A lot of whether or not anything gets done on the PG front though is if the front office is confident in Jermaine's ability to stay healthy and if they're ok with how Mario Chalmers is doing now.
Mike Bibby
I honestly can't see Bibby anywhere other than in Atlanta, then again, I'm never sure what the Atlanta front office is going to pull in the off season, so I can't say that with a whole lot of gusto. If you watch NBATVs Strength of the Team segment from this week, you'll find Kenny Smith interviewing Hawks' coach Mike Woodson, who says that Bibby is the best thing to happen to his coaching career. That's some pretty high praise there, so I think there will definitely be a push for Bibby to come back. Will he take a paycut so the Hawks can resign Marvin Williams? That remains to be seen.
Allen Iverson
Well, Allen Iverson is already flirting with retirement. It's pretty understandable given that Iverson has never come off the bench before. However, no one's really listening, why? Because Dumars made it clear that bringing Iverson to the Pistons was really more of a money move for the future than anything else. Dumars didn't see Iverson as the player who carried the 2000-2001 Philadelphia 76ers to the NBA Finals, but as an attractive $21 million expiring contract. That being said, Iverson definite still has game, just how much? Not too sure, but it's still there. He might not be as great as he once was, but he can still make a difference when need be. Needless to say, that means that Iverson will not be returning for another tenure with the Pistons.
Where does he fit? Well, I think it was Tas Melas from the Basketball Jones that said this, but please correct me if I'm wrong, the Charlotte Bobcats look like a pretty Iversonian team. They even have his 2000-2001 head coach, Larry Brown. The Bobcats actually just look like an upgraded version of the 01 76ers, really, they do. I mean, granted Iverson has lost a couple of steps since then, but hey, wouldn't you say that a squad of Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Emeka Okafor, DJ Augustin, DeSagana Diop, Vladamir Radmanovic, Nazr Mohammed, and Juwan Howard at least as good as if not better than Eric Snow, George Lynch, Tyrone Hill, Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie, Kevin Ollie, Jumaine Jones, Todd MacCulloch, and Matt Geiger? Ok sure, the Bobcats can definitely get better, but they have a solid bunch of role players right now and are just looking for someone to take over the game. Raymond Felton is probably out of the picture, but the Hawks definitely could use a game changer like Allen Iverson, creating on the offense. I'm not gonna go into the details of parallels between Raja Bell and Aaron McKie and Emeka Okafor and Dikembe Mutombo, but I think it's not a bad place for Iverson to end his career. They're pushing for the playoffs already without him, and I think he can take them a little further.
Rasheed Wallace
As mentioned in the link above in my post on Jason Kidd, I think that Rasheed Wallace can be big on the Spurs, if he can fit into the system. I'd love to see him playing next to Duncan, and if he brings the defensive effort, and is willing to play for cheap, then it's a hit. Dumars has also made it clear that Wallace isn't in the long-term Pistons picture, so it's a final hurrah or retirement. Of course, Wallace has mentioned before that he might want to retire, but I think if he's willing to play for a contender, there are a lot of teams that could really use his length, defense, and versatility. Spurs seem like the best place where they can utilize that and also contain his quirkiness. He'd be like the ultimate combination of Robert Horry and Dennis Rodman. While it'd be interesting to see him play next to maybe someone like Dwight Howard, I think the Magic are going to be focused on trying to retain Hedo Turkoglu, and then would try to sign a cheaper, more workmanlike PF to play next to Howard.
Andre Miller
Miller is a pretty intersting case because he's been playing so well for Philadelphia. However, there are rumors that his tenure might be up, especially as he's not really getting younger. He's a solid PG to say the least, and I probably see him remaining at Philadelphia for a little while, as he's been the steady floor captain that has really helped keep the team running. However, should Kidd leave, I can see the Mavericks turning an eye at him. Another option might be Sacramento, who are looking for someone to take up the reigns where Beno Udrih could not. Portland was interested in Miller purportedly before the trade deadline, but I honestly think that they wouldn't be getting significantly better acquiring Miller.
Shawn Marion
Last but not least is the enigmatic Shawn Marion. The Matrix has definitely looked utterly lost ever since he left Steve Nash and the run-and-gun game of Mike D'Antoni. Not really sure how things are going to work out for him, really, he's the hardest guy to place. He's not really very good offensively, at least in terms of creating his own shot, but he's a solid rebounder for his size and defends fairly well. I don't see him commanding another $17 million, especially in the current economic situation, but it's possible that some team might still overpay him. A team that naturally comes to mind as a fit would be the Golden State Warriors, who desperately need defense and rebounding. Of course, the arrival of Marion may mean a hindrance of the development of Anthony Randolph, though, if the Warriors are set on getting rid of Crawford and playing Maggette as a super 6th man, then having Randolph play the 3 and Marion the 4 may not be a bad idea. Not sure where Brandan Wright would fit into all of this, but hey, I think that right now, Warriors are the one team that Marion could go to and make a positive impact.
New Orleans Hornets are the Western Conference 2006-2007 Cleveland Cavaliers
It's an interesting thing I noted when I started thinking about the Hornets. Specifically, when I saw this article from ESPN's JA Adande. It's interesting to note. However, when I think about it, the more sense it really does make. Chris Paul is carrying this team like LeBron James has been carrying the Cavaliers for the past few years, granted David West is more along the lines of Mo Williams level help, and it wouldn't be fair to categorize him as a Zydrunas Ilgauskas type glorified role player, but still, Mo Williams to me, is a solid 3rd option scorer, not the 2nd go to guy if your star player is getting quadruple teamed. I think because Paul is such a prolific point guard that he kind of gets away by getting easy shots for his teammates, granted if we were to compare the lineups, I trust the Hornets' squad to make more shots than the 2006-2007 Cavs, still, I don't see it as a huge stretch, even if everyone were completely healthy. Let's do a comparison:
If we move to the bench, we're looking at for the Hornets a compilation of James Posey, Morris Peterson, Antonio Daniels, Julian Wright, Hilton Armstrong, Devin Brown, and Sean Marks. Compared to a then Cleveland bench of: Eric Snow, Donyell Marshall, Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson, Shannon Brown, Damon Jones, and maybe Ira Newble. I could even compare them to the 2007-2008 Cleveland Cavs, with a roster of Daniel Gibson, Delonte West, LeBron James, Ben Wallace, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, with basically the same bench plus Joe Smith and Wally Sczerbiak minus Ira Newble.
Granted, on paper, I think the Hornets are better than the Cavs of old, but are they really? David West was kind of the "underrated player of the year" in the sense that everyone couldn't stop talking about how nobody was talking about David West... I guess... I don't hate the Hornets, but I do think that they are a team riding entirely on Chris Paul's talent. My first case would be the Hornets losing to the Blazers on Feb 2, when Paul went down after 28 minutes of play with a strained groin, blowing a 74-59 lead going into the 4th quarter. This isn't a matter of the Blazers making a solid run and eking out a close one, this is the Blazers utterly dominating a team that looked lost on the floor without its best player and floor leader, outscoring them in the final 12 minutes of the game 38-15 to win the game decisively 97-89. Sure, David West is a solid player, he'll get you a quiet 20 points 10 rebounds on those pick and pops, shooting that 18 foot jumper, how good is he really though?
Those are the per 36 minute numbers of Drew Gooden in above mentioned season compared to David West's current season. Is David West really that much better than Gooden? He scores more, sure, but probably because he averages 3 more shots and 2 more free throws than Gooden. I'm not saying David West is bad, not by any means, this comparison actually might serve as a kudos to Drew Gooden, but in this context, the Hornets/07 Cavs comparison becomes all that much stronger.
Given that, the Cavs in 06-07 were a middling team in a dismal Eastern Conference, while the Hornets are a middling team in the competitive Western Conference, it's just more kudos to Chris Paul who's really keeping his team afloat. If we continue to look at the various players surrounding Chris Paul, we can draw a lot of comparisons, needless to say, the Hornets really need some help. However, they haven't really been able to get a lot of it. I've always railed the Hornets about how thin their frontcourt depth is, especially given how Tyson Chandler and David West are pretty injury prone, but the more I look at it now, their frontcourt isn't super formidable to begin with. Chandler is solid, but definitely more of someone you have there to cleanup on the glass, Chandler's always been known more for his defense and rebounding than really anything he brings on the offensive end. I don't think he'd do half as well if didn't have those Hornets patented pick and roll alley-oops from Chris Paul, even then, for him a good offensive game is like 10 points.
Butler has been playing well, but he's always been more of a 6th man, and while Peja's been injured, even if he were to come back, all you really can expect from Peja is hitting open threes. I mean, maybe if it were 2004 or something, this would be a completely different story, but Peja is but a shell of his glory days back in Sacramento (going to stay away from the Peja to Larry Hughes comparisons). Daniels is a solid backup point guard who's played way too many minutes the last two seasons because of Gilbert Arenas's injury, Posey is a great role player, and honestly, there really isn't a lot else worth noting on the roster. However, since the Hornets are the cinderella team of the league (or at least were last season), especially with Chris Paul being injured the brunt of 2006-2007, but still, this team is hurting. Granted, you take Chris Paul off any team except maybe Team USA 2008, and that team will probably be hurting, however, the onus is on the front office to put that talent next to Paul to succeed. He's doing a phenomenal job with what he has now, but the team has to get better.
Unfortunately, none of that is probably going to happen, as most of the players except Paul on the roster are somewhat overpaid. Now with the Hornets trying to cut costs due to the economy, things look bleaker. Peja is making almost $30 million over the next two seasons, and seeing how he's been suffering from back spasms for the past two, almost no one is going to want to touch his contract. Money considerations were also the only reason Hornets were willing to send Tyson Chandler to OKC for Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith, those two were both expiring contracts, whereas Tyson Chandler is making $11 million the next year with a $12 million player option the year after, which he would be foolish to not exercise, because he's not going to get anything near that, even if the economy were healthy. With Posey and Peterson both making more than $6 million per for at least the next two season, and Chris Paul's contract extension (starting at $13 million) kicking in next season, and the shrinking cap size, you can see how the Hornets will be hard pressed to do anything to improve the roster.
Hopefully like Cleveland, the front office can turn it around. Bring some talent in for Chris Paul to work with, until then, it's all on Paul.
| 2008-2009 New Orleans Hornets | 2006-2007 Cleveland Cavaliers |
| Chris Paul | Larry Hughes |
| Rasual Butler | Sasha Pavlovic |
| Peja Stojakovic | LeBron James |
| David West | Drew Gooden |
| Tyson Chandler | Zydrunas Ilgauskas |
If we move to the bench, we're looking at for the Hornets a compilation of James Posey, Morris Peterson, Antonio Daniels, Julian Wright, Hilton Armstrong, Devin Brown, and Sean Marks. Compared to a then Cleveland bench of: Eric Snow, Donyell Marshall, Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson, Shannon Brown, Damon Jones, and maybe Ira Newble. I could even compare them to the 2007-2008 Cleveland Cavs, with a roster of Daniel Gibson, Delonte West, LeBron James, Ben Wallace, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas, with basically the same bench plus Joe Smith and Wally Sczerbiak minus Ira Newble.
Granted, on paper, I think the Hornets are better than the Cavs of old, but are they really? David West was kind of the "underrated player of the year" in the sense that everyone couldn't stop talking about how nobody was talking about David West... I guess... I don't hate the Hornets, but I do think that they are a team riding entirely on Chris Paul's talent. My first case would be the Hornets losing to the Blazers on Feb 2, when Paul went down after 28 minutes of play with a strained groin, blowing a 74-59 lead going into the 4th quarter. This isn't a matter of the Blazers making a solid run and eking out a close one, this is the Blazers utterly dominating a team that looked lost on the floor without its best player and floor leader, outscoring them in the final 12 minutes of the game 38-15 to win the game decisively 97-89. Sure, David West is a solid player, he'll get you a quiet 20 points 10 rebounds on those pick and pops, shooting that 18 foot jumper, how good is he really though?
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drew Gooden | 2006-07 | 25 | 80 | 80 | 2238 | 6.0 | 12.6 | .473 | 0.0 | 0.1 | .167 | 2.3 | 3.2 | .714 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 14.2 |
| 2 | David West | 2008-09 | 28 | 68 | 68 | 2645 | 7.1 | 15.3 | .463 | 0.1 | 0.3 | .208 | 4.7 | 5.3 | .889 | 1.9 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 18.9 |
Those are the per 36 minute numbers of Drew Gooden in above mentioned season compared to David West's current season. Is David West really that much better than Gooden? He scores more, sure, but probably because he averages 3 more shots and 2 more free throws than Gooden. I'm not saying David West is bad, not by any means, this comparison actually might serve as a kudos to Drew Gooden, but in this context, the Hornets/07 Cavs comparison becomes all that much stronger.
Given that, the Cavs in 06-07 were a middling team in a dismal Eastern Conference, while the Hornets are a middling team in the competitive Western Conference, it's just more kudos to Chris Paul who's really keeping his team afloat. If we continue to look at the various players surrounding Chris Paul, we can draw a lot of comparisons, needless to say, the Hornets really need some help. However, they haven't really been able to get a lot of it. I've always railed the Hornets about how thin their frontcourt depth is, especially given how Tyson Chandler and David West are pretty injury prone, but the more I look at it now, their frontcourt isn't super formidable to begin with. Chandler is solid, but definitely more of someone you have there to cleanup on the glass, Chandler's always been known more for his defense and rebounding than really anything he brings on the offensive end. I don't think he'd do half as well if didn't have those Hornets patented pick and roll alley-oops from Chris Paul, even then, for him a good offensive game is like 10 points.
Butler has been playing well, but he's always been more of a 6th man, and while Peja's been injured, even if he were to come back, all you really can expect from Peja is hitting open threes. I mean, maybe if it were 2004 or something, this would be a completely different story, but Peja is but a shell of his glory days back in Sacramento (going to stay away from the Peja to Larry Hughes comparisons). Daniels is a solid backup point guard who's played way too many minutes the last two seasons because of Gilbert Arenas's injury, Posey is a great role player, and honestly, there really isn't a lot else worth noting on the roster. However, since the Hornets are the cinderella team of the league (or at least were last season), especially with Chris Paul being injured the brunt of 2006-2007, but still, this team is hurting. Granted, you take Chris Paul off any team except maybe Team USA 2008, and that team will probably be hurting, however, the onus is on the front office to put that talent next to Paul to succeed. He's doing a phenomenal job with what he has now, but the team has to get better.
Unfortunately, none of that is probably going to happen, as most of the players except Paul on the roster are somewhat overpaid. Now with the Hornets trying to cut costs due to the economy, things look bleaker. Peja is making almost $30 million over the next two seasons, and seeing how he's been suffering from back spasms for the past two, almost no one is going to want to touch his contract. Money considerations were also the only reason Hornets were willing to send Tyson Chandler to OKC for Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith, those two were both expiring contracts, whereas Tyson Chandler is making $11 million the next year with a $12 million player option the year after, which he would be foolish to not exercise, because he's not going to get anything near that, even if the economy were healthy. With Posey and Peterson both making more than $6 million per for at least the next two season, and Chris Paul's contract extension (starting at $13 million) kicking in next season, and the shrinking cap size, you can see how the Hornets will be hard pressed to do anything to improve the roster.
Hopefully like Cleveland, the front office can turn it around. Bring some talent in for Chris Paul to work with, until then, it's all on Paul.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
What will it take?: San Antonio Spurs
I'm not going to hide it, I'm a Spurs fan. For this reason alone, I'm not allowed to post on Bright Side of the Sun, though they do have some good stuff, which I would love to comment, but, I'm a Spurs fan. Honestly, the only two spots that I really enjoy reading and posting on would have to be Pounding the Rock or Third Quarter Collapse. Anyways, that's not what I'm writing about here. However, as a final side note, if I were to actually get League Pass and start watching games on a regular basis, I would become a Spurs blogger, maybe I should... I'm seriously thinking about it. Anyways...
Onwards... I think Spurs are one of the other teams with a better chance of upsetting the Lakers in a 7-game series. Of course, there's a lot that has to go right in order for that to happen. What I want to do here, is discuss the things that "have to go right" in order for said upset (which I hope will happen) to happen. Spurs currently stand 3rd in the Western Conference, 1/2 a game behind Denver, 1/2 a game ahead of Houston, two teams, who, honestly, I don't think really have much of a chance. Should the season end with no change to the standings, the Spurs would be playing Portland for the first round and the winner of Denver/Utah (I pick Utah) in the second. Let me just say, those are two tough matchups. My personal hope is that Utah jumps to 5 to play Houston so then Lakers would have to go through them first before matching up with the Spurs (assuming both advance to the Western Conference Finals). Hope. Yeah.
So from a purely basketball standpoint, what do Spurs need? Well, firstly, the obvious answer is they need to be healthy. They need to be back 100%, full speed. The most noteable players they need to be certain are healthy are Manu Ginobili and Drew Gooden. Of course, they have to keep Tony Parker and Tim Duncan healthy for the remainder of the season too. One of the primary reasons I say this is because the Rockets and Nuggets are such good regular season teams, that I don't see them falling to a spot where the Spurs will play them (though maybe the Spurs might fall to a spot where they'll play them given their last two games). While I don't anticipate the Rockets or Nuggets making a whole lot of noise in the postseason (read: 1st round exit) I think they can stay in the top 4 spots and retain homecourt advantage. Additionally, I don't see Dallas gaining any ground to play anyone besides the Lakers, but that all could change, still, I think it's pretty unlikely. That means that the Spurs have to hit the playoffs running, because their first matchup is likely to be pretty challenging from the getgo, Portland, New Orleans, and Utah are the choices, and I'd really rather not have to face any of them in a playoff series. Manu is slowly working his way back, but he's not quite 100% yet, hopefully he makes a full recovery by playoffs.
If everyone is healthy, then we have to have Tony Parker continue to have a career season into the offseason. Next, Tim Duncan has to be, well, Tim Duncan. The big questionmarks then kind of fall to the role players. I know this all sounds kind of obvious, in the effect of saying "all the Spurs players just need to play well" but there does have to be some level of consistent production from Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, Drew Gooden, Kurt Thomas, and Roger Mason Jr in order for the Spurs to have a chance. While the core of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is a formidable offense (if healthy), you can't really bank on them wresting control of the game and pulling the team out of the fire as regularly or reliably as say Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, or even Paul Pierce. Parker has done it a couple of times, and it might save the Spurs in a couple of close ones, but it's not something to bank on. I think Bonner, Mason, and Bowen (and Udoka I guess) all know their role in the system, so I think the biggest x-factor here is going to be Drew Gooden. If Drew Gooden can play smart and work efficiently (i.e. not jack up flat-footed wing jumpers) then the Spurs are in good shape. What they need Gooden to do, is to grab rebounds (especially offensive ones) and get his points off those putbacks, and also to be able to keep his head on defense, which he's not known for doing, but still, a little effort wouldn't hurt.
Finally, I think Popovich needs to figure out his rotations. How to most effectively use his players.
MAKE MANU THE SUPER SIXTH MAN AGAIN
Firstly, I'm in agreement with most people that Manu should come off the bench. What this does is give the bench a lot of firepower and instant offense. I think that the most effective starting 5 for the Spurs thusfar this season has been Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, Duncan. It works, assuming (a fairly large if I guess) Mason, Finley, and Bonner can hit their open shots. Graydon a solid Spurs blogger makes a note of this in regards to the previous Spurs loss to OKC, well, not specifically in regards to the lineup but in regards to how Pop needs to work his rotations, there are other posts on it at Graydon (and co)'s blog. I know the subs aren't going to get tons of time come playoffs, but hey, the starters also need their rest, but I'd much rather see Hill, Ginobili, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas off than Vaughn, Mason, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas.
PLAY LESS MICHAEL FINLEY
One thing about this season I think that Pop has gone with is more firepower at the expense of some defense, which, I believe, given this roster is understandable. However, I don't know if that really dictates playing Michael Finley 30+ minutes per game. Right now, Finley's role is to hit open threes, which I believe given the minutes, either Udoka or Bowen can do effectively. So the second thing with the rotation is to limit Finley's minutes. I think those extra stops that Bowen/Udoka come up with will ultimately be more important, especially late game than the extra shots that Finley gets, especially when Finley isn't shooting well (in the last two losses Finley, while averaging 13 points has been shooting 10-28, that's 35.7%, ugh). In previous years, there was a lot of help from the middle from Duncan and one of Fransisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto, or Kurt Thomas, however, now with Bonner inserted as a key role in the lineup, I don't know that they can really afford to have another defensive liability on the floor.
PLAY MORE GEORGE HILL
Ok, so Hill might not be as great of a shooter as say Finley or Mason, but the idea is like that of playing less Finley and more Bowen/Udoka, the stops will be more important than the shots. One item of note that I found from the box score of the OKC game was really the rotation. I mean really, why is Jacque Vaughn playing 13+ minutes while George Hill gets a DNP? I know he's a rookie and inexperienced and all that, but isn't the last few games of the season a great time to get him that experience? While Vaughn knows how to make the offense go, he's really not much good on either end of the floor. Especially if Ginobili is the 6th man, I think that Hill wouldn't need to facilitate as much, since Ginobili will be there with him. This also moves Mason, who's not a great facilitator back to being the SG instead of the backup PG. I understand that Pop might want Mason on the floor, without getting considerably smaller (playing Mason at 2). While end-game situations might get iffy if Mason stays an SG since you might have to play Manu as a SF, I don't think that'll be as bad as more floor time for Michael Finley or something. I think he'll be crucial defensively especially as playoffs include the prospects of matching up against Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams.
I was discussing this with a friend (a Lakers fan) and while I think that a healthy Spurs outfit could sneak a 7 game series from the Lakers, there's one thing I failed to consider: David Stern hates the Spurs. That, I suppose is another uphill battle that the Spurs have to face, but at this point, it's all conspiracy theories. So these are what I think it will take for the Spurs to win. I believe that should everyone figure out the system and Pop sticks with a rotation that works, then Spurs have as good of a shot as anyone. Plus, it's an odd year.
Again Pop, here's my recommended rotation:
PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason Jr, Manu Ginobili
SF - Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka
PF - Matt Bonner, Drew Gooden
C - Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas
Don't play anyone else, though, I suppose you could stick Fab in there somewhere if he gets healthy again.
Onwards... I think Spurs are one of the other teams with a better chance of upsetting the Lakers in a 7-game series. Of course, there's a lot that has to go right in order for that to happen. What I want to do here, is discuss the things that "have to go right" in order for said upset (which I hope will happen) to happen. Spurs currently stand 3rd in the Western Conference, 1/2 a game behind Denver, 1/2 a game ahead of Houston, two teams, who, honestly, I don't think really have much of a chance. Should the season end with no change to the standings, the Spurs would be playing Portland for the first round and the winner of Denver/Utah (I pick Utah) in the second. Let me just say, those are two tough matchups. My personal hope is that Utah jumps to 5 to play Houston so then Lakers would have to go through them first before matching up with the Spurs (assuming both advance to the Western Conference Finals). Hope. Yeah.
So from a purely basketball standpoint, what do Spurs need? Well, firstly, the obvious answer is they need to be healthy. They need to be back 100%, full speed. The most noteable players they need to be certain are healthy are Manu Ginobili and Drew Gooden. Of course, they have to keep Tony Parker and Tim Duncan healthy for the remainder of the season too. One of the primary reasons I say this is because the Rockets and Nuggets are such good regular season teams, that I don't see them falling to a spot where the Spurs will play them (though maybe the Spurs might fall to a spot where they'll play them given their last two games). While I don't anticipate the Rockets or Nuggets making a whole lot of noise in the postseason (read: 1st round exit) I think they can stay in the top 4 spots and retain homecourt advantage. Additionally, I don't see Dallas gaining any ground to play anyone besides the Lakers, but that all could change, still, I think it's pretty unlikely. That means that the Spurs have to hit the playoffs running, because their first matchup is likely to be pretty challenging from the getgo, Portland, New Orleans, and Utah are the choices, and I'd really rather not have to face any of them in a playoff series. Manu is slowly working his way back, but he's not quite 100% yet, hopefully he makes a full recovery by playoffs.
If everyone is healthy, then we have to have Tony Parker continue to have a career season into the offseason. Next, Tim Duncan has to be, well, Tim Duncan. The big questionmarks then kind of fall to the role players. I know this all sounds kind of obvious, in the effect of saying "all the Spurs players just need to play well" but there does have to be some level of consistent production from Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, Drew Gooden, Kurt Thomas, and Roger Mason Jr in order for the Spurs to have a chance. While the core of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is a formidable offense (if healthy), you can't really bank on them wresting control of the game and pulling the team out of the fire as regularly or reliably as say Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, or even Paul Pierce. Parker has done it a couple of times, and it might save the Spurs in a couple of close ones, but it's not something to bank on. I think Bonner, Mason, and Bowen (and Udoka I guess) all know their role in the system, so I think the biggest x-factor here is going to be Drew Gooden. If Drew Gooden can play smart and work efficiently (i.e. not jack up flat-footed wing jumpers) then the Spurs are in good shape. What they need Gooden to do, is to grab rebounds (especially offensive ones) and get his points off those putbacks, and also to be able to keep his head on defense, which he's not known for doing, but still, a little effort wouldn't hurt.
Finally, I think Popovich needs to figure out his rotations. How to most effectively use his players.
MAKE MANU THE SUPER SIXTH MAN AGAIN
Firstly, I'm in agreement with most people that Manu should come off the bench. What this does is give the bench a lot of firepower and instant offense. I think that the most effective starting 5 for the Spurs thusfar this season has been Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, Duncan. It works, assuming (a fairly large if I guess) Mason, Finley, and Bonner can hit their open shots. Graydon a solid Spurs blogger makes a note of this in regards to the previous Spurs loss to OKC, well, not specifically in regards to the lineup but in regards to how Pop needs to work his rotations, there are other posts on it at Graydon (and co)'s blog. I know the subs aren't going to get tons of time come playoffs, but hey, the starters also need their rest, but I'd much rather see Hill, Ginobili, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas off than Vaughn, Mason, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas.
PLAY LESS MICHAEL FINLEY
One thing about this season I think that Pop has gone with is more firepower at the expense of some defense, which, I believe, given this roster is understandable. However, I don't know if that really dictates playing Michael Finley 30+ minutes per game. Right now, Finley's role is to hit open threes, which I believe given the minutes, either Udoka or Bowen can do effectively. So the second thing with the rotation is to limit Finley's minutes. I think those extra stops that Bowen/Udoka come up with will ultimately be more important, especially late game than the extra shots that Finley gets, especially when Finley isn't shooting well (in the last two losses Finley, while averaging 13 points has been shooting 10-28, that's 35.7%, ugh). In previous years, there was a lot of help from the middle from Duncan and one of Fransisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto, or Kurt Thomas, however, now with Bonner inserted as a key role in the lineup, I don't know that they can really afford to have another defensive liability on the floor.
PLAY MORE GEORGE HILL
Ok, so Hill might not be as great of a shooter as say Finley or Mason, but the idea is like that of playing less Finley and more Bowen/Udoka, the stops will be more important than the shots. One item of note that I found from the box score of the OKC game was really the rotation. I mean really, why is Jacque Vaughn playing 13+ minutes while George Hill gets a DNP? I know he's a rookie and inexperienced and all that, but isn't the last few games of the season a great time to get him that experience? While Vaughn knows how to make the offense go, he's really not much good on either end of the floor. Especially if Ginobili is the 6th man, I think that Hill wouldn't need to facilitate as much, since Ginobili will be there with him. This also moves Mason, who's not a great facilitator back to being the SG instead of the backup PG. I understand that Pop might want Mason on the floor, without getting considerably smaller (playing Mason at 2). While end-game situations might get iffy if Mason stays an SG since you might have to play Manu as a SF, I don't think that'll be as bad as more floor time for Michael Finley or something. I think he'll be crucial defensively especially as playoffs include the prospects of matching up against Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams.
I was discussing this with a friend (a Lakers fan) and while I think that a healthy Spurs outfit could sneak a 7 game series from the Lakers, there's one thing I failed to consider: David Stern hates the Spurs. That, I suppose is another uphill battle that the Spurs have to face, but at this point, it's all conspiracy theories. So these are what I think it will take for the Spurs to win. I believe that should everyone figure out the system and Pop sticks with a rotation that works, then Spurs have as good of a shot as anyone. Plus, it's an odd year.
Again Pop, here's my recommended rotation:
PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason Jr, Manu Ginobili
SF - Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka
PF - Matt Bonner, Drew Gooden
C - Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas
Don't play anyone else, though, I suppose you could stick Fab in there somewhere if he gets healthy again.
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