Tuesday, December 16, 2008

An Interesting Fantasy Tactic: Pick Against the Warriors

I don't mean to write a lot about the Warriors, but a friend of mine introduced me to this interesting tactic when playing fantasy basketball: pick up anybody over 6-9 playing against the Warriors, the Ws will make them look like All-Stars, in essence though, it's pretty much anyone that plays the PF/C position.  I saw the line for Marc Gasol's 20 point, 16 rebound game in November, but really?  Anybody?  Well, let's go back about 10 games and see...

v Orlando Magic
Marcin Gortat: 16 points, 13 rebounds (7 offensive), 1 assist, 3 blocks on 7-13 shooting in 27:36 minutes

@ Denver Nuggets
Kenyon Martin: 15 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, 1 block on 6-9 shooting in 24:36 minutes
Renaldo Balkman: 12 points, 6 reobounds, 1 assist, 1 steal, 3 blocks on 6-8 shooting in 16:43 minutes

v Houston Rockets
Luis Scola: 19 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block on 7-12 shooting in 24:19 minutes
Carl Landry: 18 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal on 7-10 shooting in 23:14 minutes

v Milwaukee Bucks
Charlie Villanueva: 9 points, 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 blocks on 3-11 shooting in 29:52 minutes

@ Oklahoma City Thunder
Nick Collison: 15 points, 10 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 2 blocks on 6-10 shooting in 23:05 minutes

@ San Antonio Spurs
Matt Bonner: 14 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal on 6-9 shooting in 19:23 minutes
Fabricio Oberto: 12 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists on 3-5 shooting in 23:56 minutes

@ Houston Rockets
Luis Scola: 8 points, 10 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block on 4-8 shooting in 23:43 minutes

v Miami Heat
Udonis Haslem: 21 points, 13 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks on 8-11 shooting in 41:40 minutes
Michael Beasley: 19 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block on 7-15 shooting in 24:27 minutes

@ New York Knicks
David Lee: 37 points, 21 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block on 16-29 shooting in 38:31 minutes
Al Harrington: 36 points, 12 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal on 13-25 shooting in 39:43 minutes

@ Cleveland Cavaliers
Zydrunas Ilgauskas: 21 points, 3 rebounds, 1 steal on 9-13 shooting in 19:25 minutes

Now these are just the big men you don't really always expect to produce a lot, I'm not counting the 33pt, 14 rbd game Yao had, or the 20pt, 13 rbds Tim Duncan had in slightly over 20 minutes of play, nor the 41 pt, 10 rbds monster game Kevin Durant had.  

I don't know what it is, but GSW really makes power forwards and centers look like efficiency monsters.  Seriously, only 3 players on the list played over 30 minutes (Haslem, Lee, Harrington) but their stats reflect it too.  Combined, the three had 94 points, 46 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 steals, 3 blocks on 37-65 (56%) shooting.  So arguably, a run of the mill PF or C, of a starting caliber, should average about 30 points, 15 rebounds, 1-2 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block on about 55-60% shooting in about 36 minutes of play.  I'm not a Warriors hatere, but the strategy seems to work.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Warriors Woes

Only 2 years removed from the "We Believe" campaign, no team has drifted further from a title than the Golden State Warriors.  Sure, Nellie-ball has revitalized excitement in basketball, it's fun to watch.  They had one successful playoff run, ousting the top seeded Dallas Mavericks from the first round of the playoffs, then were again only a couple of games shy of clinching that much desired 8th spot in the Western Conference playoffs again last season.  It sounds kind of like the low-budget production of what happened with Dallas a couple years ago, losing the Miami in the finals, the losing in the playoffs (to Golden State), then losing in the playoffs again (to New Orleans).  

Yet all of us still are kind of rooting for them inside.  However ingenious Don Nelson is though as a head coach, you have to admit, the roster kind of, well, maybe more than kind of, is bad.  If I were Don Nelson I'd have a hard time deciding if I wanted to start CJ Watson or Brandan Wright next to Jamal Crawford, Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, and Andris Biedrins.  It all kind of went downhill when Baron Davis opted for more years and more money with the Clippers down in Los Angeles, and the Warriors didn't match, because that's understandable, Baron Davis isn't renown to be healthy, and asking for a 5-6 year contract isn't  really what we're all looking for.  Of course, then the front office goes and extends Stephen Jackson for 5 years for like $35 million.  Then, Monta Ellis, the future of the franchise, who just signed a $11 million peryear contract (I think like 6 years) goes celebrating on a moped and wrecking his ankle.  Warriors are definitely still crossing their fingers about him coming back.  Things are just not looking pretty for the Warriors thusfar this season.

Honestly, there isn't a whole lot you can do with this roster, it just looks ugly.  Additionally, you don't have a lot of cap flexibilty to work around it.  Corey Maggette was the result of a quick reaction to Baron Davis leaving, taking $50 million over 5 years...  Maggette, definitely is not a player worth that kind of money.  Lemme give you an idea of who you can get for that kind of money.  Let's say Maggette is worth about $10 million per year right now (I think the actual number is like $9.6 million with bonuses or something), and we understand that the Warriors just lost Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, and Mickael Pietrus in free agency (to the Clippers, Suns, and Magic respectively).  These guys I'm comparing aren't free agents, but I use this as an illustration of how Maggette isn't worth the money.  So let's first compare swingmen, those in the SG/SF ilk.  Caron Butler makes an average of $9.78 million over the next 3 years, Gerald Wallace an average $9.47 over the next 4 with an $11 million player option in the 5th, Ron Artest is an $8.45 million expiring contract, Josh Howard makes $10.4 million per over the next 2 years with an $11 million team option in the 3rd.  These are all guys that right now, salary-wise, you could trade Maggette for straight up.  All players that I'd rather have on my team.  Sure Maggette can score and get to the foul line, but that's it, he's like a poor man's Paul Pierce.  Granted, Paul Pierce is making max contract, but still, there is better to be had for the same price.  The Maggette move, right now, looks less like lateral movement to make up for Baron and more a step backwards.  It's money poorly spent.  Even worse, it leaves the Warriors in no position for the free agency in the coming years, 2009 to include names like Allen Iverson, Shawn Marion, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom, and likely Carlos Boozer and Hedo Turkoglu, and of course the 2010 fiesta with names like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, and Amare Stoudemire just to name a few.

Unfortunately for the Warriors, Jamal Crawford, Stephen Jackson, and Corey Maggette don't coexist very well on the floor.  They're all volume shooters, and chuck threes with regularity, and not a great amount of consistency.  Better than say Ricky Davis but that's not  really saying much.  They'll score in bunches, but they don't really add up to a whole lot.  If you look at the contracts, Jackson and Maggette go out to 2013 and Crawford to 2011, they've just signed Biedrins and Ellis on major contracts with player options out in 2014.  They've locked themselves with this lineup for a while.  Unless they can get rid of it.  Maggette becomes tradeable in a couple of days, but because of what the Warriors threw at him in a knee-jerk reaction to Baron Davis and being spurned by Gilbert Arenas and Elton Brand, there aren't a lot of people that would want him.  Maggette needs to end up on a team that doesn't mind having a black hole on the court, and honestly, there aren't a lot of them out there.  Jackson's contract is somewhat reasonable, averaging out to about $8.6 million per year, but then you consider that you have to hold him until he's 35, then that gets a little out of hand, or rather, undesireable. 

To be honest, I really don't think that Maggette can be had for fair value in return.  There really isn't much of any solution to be had, and I know people already calling for Blake Griffin or Ricky Rubio via ping-pong balls.  However, given the Warriors' luck in drafting (Joe Smith, Todd Fuller, Ike Diogu, etc...) there might be some doubts about that front office will take those talents.  However, if the Warriors want to build for the future, I don't think they can afford to keep Maggette and Jackson in the picture. 

This is where my trade mongering comes in...  The best that the Warriors can really hope for in return is expiring contracts and maybe some depth, and they have to trade to a team that's hurting and looking to get better on the fly.  One possibility is Maggette for some package like Jason Collins, Kevin Ollie, and Calvin Booth (all expiring contracts).  So why would Minnesota do something like this?  Well, for one, they desperately need scoring on the wings, while Corey Brewer is improving, he's now out for the season with a knee injury, and he wasn't the scoring answer they're looking for, Randy Foye hasn't really panned out either.  Maggette is the kind of scorer that can play next to Mike Miller and Al Jefferson, and just has to worry about scoring.  Of course, Jefferson isn't a great passer, but if they develop Love, who is a good passer, then it's a maybe.  Another possibility would be Stephen Jackson for Chris Wilcox.  Knowing Sam Presti, Oklahoma City will likely ask for draft picks in return, but, this does give Golden State a solid rebounder to start at the 4 next to Biedrins while developing Randolph and Wright at the SF slot until the add more weight.   Additionally, it gives more burn to the new guys, DeMarcus Nelson and Anthony Morrow as well as the other players that we'd like to see more of, like Kelenna Azubuike and Marco Belinelli.   Wilcox expires end of this season, and the Warriors now have more cap room to work with.  For OKC it's a matter of what the need is.  With Kevin Durant at the SF slot now, their SG has become really weak.  Unless Scott Brooks decides to play Westbrook at the SG slot (which he hasn't) he's left with starting Damien Wilkins.  Jackson at the very least bolsters their wing spot as well as gives a little veteran leadership.  Hopefully he doesn't go getting into trouble like in Indiana.  But that's my call, and how the Warriors can be fixed.  It's obvious that the Warriors won't win anything this season, unlike other teams they're not much better than the 6-15 record they hold.  So develop the young guys I say.

Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Finding that Missing Piece: Pacific Division

Each team has needs that it needs to get filled, of course, when the free agency is looking thin, which it usually is, then teams need to look on the trade market, trusting that the move will make them better both immediately and in the forseeable future.  Let's look at immediate impact for teams that are in consideration here.  Of course, no team is going to make a trade that doesn't make sense for them, so there are a couple of considerations that go into effect here; player chemistry, salary dumping, expiring contracts, etc...  Thus, whenver you consider a team need, you also need to figure out what that team has to offer.

Pacific Division

Los Angeles Lakers
Needs: frontcourt depth
The Lakers are playing so well right now that it doesn't seem like they have a whole lot to offer.  Everyone is playing at a higher level and Lamar Odom looks like he can really be effective off the bench, the team is a team, and while fantasy owners hate it, since the everyone's numbers (especially Odom's) are down across the board, Lakers fans love it because that means they have a 14-1 starting record.  Honestly though, frontcourt depth can be an issue, as I see it.  Normally I would've said perimeter defense, but Ariza has really stepped it up, and while he's not the shooter that I'm sure Phil Jackson would like on the wings, the Trevor Ariza/Vladamir Radmanovic/Luke Walton platoon for all extensive purposes works.  Now, granted the Lakers are a really deep team, the frontcourt is the place that could use the most bolstering.  Granted it could be a lot worse, it's not ideal to have your starting PF be your backup center.  If you look at the depth charts the frontcourt would probably look like:
PF- Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom
C- Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol
Which means that the three of them probably platoon the time equally.  Fortunately, no major injuries have occurred as of yet, and given how well their playing, Jackson has the opportunity to really rest his guys.  Of course, Radmanovic might see some playing time at the PF slot, but these three are really the crux of the big men.  Behind them you then have Chris Mihm and DJ Mbenga, who are just incidental names that happen to have contracts sitting at the end of the Lakers' bench, basically your 14th and 15th men on the squad.  So there are minutes to go around, and honestly, it could be better distributed, take some pressure off Gasol.
Available for Trade: Lamar Odom, Luke Walton
Odom, is the most obvious player that is tradeable.  In the current Lakers' system Odom has become little more than an overpaid bench player, honestly, I don't think he's adding a whole lot to the offense, and it really is because the Lakers are playing well enough for it not to make a difference.  Odom currently makes around $14 million, a hefty price tag, but is an expiring contract, so teams might be less leery about trading for him.  Likely teams that are looking for a missing piece might be a little leery about trading for Odom since they have no guarantees that they could hold onto him.  There probably aren't a lot of teams that would be willing to do a sort of 2-for-1 for Odom, especially 2 big men, and Luke Walton's $20 million over the next 5 years is definitely not a contract that anyone would want to take.  A solution might be trying some sort of three way or something trying to nab a couple of serviceable big men like Nick Collison, Chris Wilcox, and/or Nazr Mohammed.  Otherwise, the Lakers could just try their luck this year, and if it doesn't work out, let Odom walk and try to nab someone else from free agency.  Honestly, the Lakers don't really need a whole lot, they just need a couple of hustle guys that can bang it and tide over the lead while Bynum and Gasol get breathers.

Phoenix Suns
Needs: backup point guard
While Shaq isn't the best fit for the skills of Steve Nash, the Suns are actually a pretty good team.  They made some smart moves to make the offense work around Shaq, and thus have been holding their own in a competitive Western Conference.  The biggest problem would really be the age of the team.  Matt Barnes has already replaced Grant Hill in the starting lineup, and thus Hill has an easier schedule, Robin Lopez is doing a serviceable job allowing Shaq to rest on back-to-backs, Amare is still young, and he has the serviceable Boris Diaw backing him up anyways.  Raja Bell and Leandro Barbosa are both fairly reliable health wise (as Barbosa is moving on from the passing of his mother) which leaves the biggest question mark the backup to Nash.  So far, Goran Dragic, the Slovenian point guard who says he's trying to model his game after Tony Parker, hasn't looked too sharp.  That means, Steve Nash, at age 34, is still getting a lot of minutes. 
Available for Trade: N/A
The unfortunate thing is that unless some guy gets cut and can be picked up for cheap in free agency (eyes turn to Stephon Marbury) there really isn't anyone that the Suns can offer.  Alando Tucker and Sean Singletary maybe, but that's like less than $1.5 million, hard to find a decent point for that much...  Since Alando Tucker makes the brunt of that, he's going to be the key to this trade... Here's maybe an option...

Golden State Warriors
Needs: ball-handling, rebounding
The Warriors lost a very close one yesterday, and I blame it on rebounding, they don't have players that box out.  It's somewhat understandable, especially since when Don Nelson wants to play a legitimate PG with his best players he's playing a center and 3 6-6 shooting guards next to him.  While Ronny Turiaf is averaging a nice 2.3 blocks per game, and Andris Biedrins is having a career year, playing Stephen Jackson at power forward while having CJ Watson, Jamal Crawford, and Corey Maggette man the 3 "smaller" positions isn't really going to cut it, not at all.  I put ball-handling down, because while a Crawford/Jackson tandem of sharing the ball-handling responsibilities neither one is a point guard or should be classified as such.  While both can handle the ball, neither one is really proficient at finding teammates, nor is their game designed to do so.  Both can find the open man, but Crawford especially, is just much better taking his man one-on-one.  They're still waiting out on Monta Ellis, but I have two reservations about that; firstly, the rehab schedule doesn't sound pretty for Monta, he might try to rush back and then pull a Gilbert Arenas and aggravate his injury, secondly, Monta Ellis is not a point guard, just a really small shooting guard.  However, given that Ellis is the point guard of the future (provided he makes his comeback), it's unlikely that the Warriors will trade for a point guard.
Available for Trade: Marcus Williams, Marco Belinelli
It seems strange that the Warriors would want to trade Williams after trading a conditional pick for him, but, Nelson just doesn't see him fitting into the rotation, at best he's a serviceable point guard that can score a bit.  However, with CJ Watson already understanding the system and the starting of Jamal Crawford at the point, Marcus Williams just hasn't been able to crack the rotation.  Even undrafted rookies Anthony Morrow and DeMarcus Nelson are in front of him on the rotation.  I can definitely see some teams using his abilities, worse case scenario he's like another Smush Parker... ok that's pretty bad.  Belinelli just hasn't found consistent playing time and there are murmurs out there that Nelson doesn't really like him, fellow draft-classmate Brandan Wright has cracked the regular rotation and is getting an opportunity to develop, but behind a glut of wing players in Crawford, Maggette, Jackson, Kelenna Azubuike, and the emergence of Anthony Morrow, the opportunities just aren't there for Belinelli.  Worst case scenario he becomes a shooting specialist, something akin to the Italian Jason Kapono.  Honestly, I can't think of anything that would look pretty...

Sacramento Kings
Needs: backcourt depth
If you actually stop to take a look at the roster that the Kings can put on the floor it actually doesn't look half bad, really, I'm serious.  If we assume all things equal and all players healthy you'd probably have a starting five that looks something like; Beno Udrih, Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia, Jason Thompson, Brad Miller with Spencer Hawes and John Salmons as the first off the bench.  There's something of a platoon of big men as Reggie Theus tries to get the emerging 2nd year big man Spencer Hawes and the standout rookie Jason Thompson minutes.  When Brad Miller was suspended for a violation of the NBA drug clause or something, Thompson and Hawes really were outstanding.  Currently, Theus is starting Hawes as a PF next to Miller, and with the return of Francisco Garcia, Thompson is going to lose the minutes he could've logged at SF as well.  For fantasy owners the Francisco Garcia/John Salmons tandem is one of the most frustrating things in the world because you're never sure who gets to play on any given day, however, they're both solid players and man the 2 and the 3 slots very well.  Whoever doesn't start becomes the first reserve behind both Kevin Martin and the other guy that does start.  However, should injury occur, there isn't a whole lot behind them.  Behind Udrih is the serviceable Bobby Jackson, but they could maybe use a third point (for you Skeets: Julius Hodge!).  So let's say for all extensive purposes they start Martin and Garcia at the wings, then the ideal situation would be to bring in Salmons off the bench behind Garcia, then should Martin come off and Garcia stay off, they can put in the developing Donte Greene at SF and slide Salmons to the SG slot.  The biggest problem, Greene is still green.  They could use a little more assurance than Donte Greene's lone 41 point Summer League game and Quincy Douby.
Available for Trade: Brad Miller, Kenny Thomas
I'm tempted to put Mikki Moore up there, but they could always use a reserve big man, and that's what Mikki Moore is, a high energy, reserve big man.  Getting rid of Brad Miller may be a little tricky with $22 million and 2 years left on his contract, but hey, he can shoot and is considered one of the best passing big men on the high post, and possibly one of the best undrafted players in the league.  However, an interesting problem to have, but a problem nonetheless would be who to get for Brad Miller, arguably you could get a player that fits in right away, but then you don't get the opportunity to develop some of your younger players.  One of the reasons for getting rid of Miller in the first place is to get playing time for both Thompson and Hawes.  Ideally, the Kings go back to the starting frontcourt of Hawes and Thompson and bring Mikki Moore in off the bench.  While Kenny Thomas is available for trade, no one wants to touch the $16 million and 2 years left on his contract, well maybe no one except Donnie Walsh, but then I doubt the Kings want Eddy Curry in return.   A solution for who to get for Brad Miller could be a simple 2 for 1, where you trade Miller for 2 smaller contracts in return, maybe a backup point and a backup center behind Spencer Hawes.  Since the Kings threw a full MLE at Beno Udrih, a hefty extension at Francisco Garcia, and pretty much made Kevin Martin the future of the franchise, there's no real reason to upgrade at any of those positions, at least no justifiable reason.  Trading Brad Miller for a worse center doesn't make a lot of sense, but if you get a decent back up point in the mix then it might be worthwhile.  Maybe?

Los Angeles Clippers
Needs: wing players
Well, to be more precise, they need consistency at the wings.  Say what you will about Cuttino Mobley, at least he was consistent, that's what really drives people crazy about Ricky Davis, can't he just get his averages consistently?  Sure you love him when he gets you 25 points with 3 treys on 45% shooting, but then, there are always those Ricky Davis nights when he gets you 5 points on 2-14 shooting or something, you only need one streaky shooter (Baron Davis) in the starting 5.  Eric Gordon is still rookie, so I can't really be too hard on him.  Therefore, they need to strengthen their wing play.  I'm actually still rather puzzled at the Zach Randolph trade, because it kind of strengthened a position that they're already strong at...  However, say what you will, Randolph is a bigger offensive threat over Kaman and Camby.  
Available for Trade: Chris Kaman
I've kind of explained this in my previous post, but I'll say it here again: Chris Kaman = Eddy Curry + FT% + defense.  Kaman is kind of your fairly traditional kind of banger/low post player.  He's good, he really is.  The problem is, he and Zach Randolph can't coexist.  So the ultimate question of who you trade for comes down to who the Clippers want to give more playing time/develop more: Eric Gordon or Al Thornton.  I'd actually go with Gordon, because you can relegate him to a 3 pt specialist, kind of a catch and shoot guy, and this mitigates the amount of time that Thorton and Randolph share the floor, because both are renown black holes on offense.  Additionally, for all it's worth, Thornton's upside isn't as high as Gordon's, as Thornton is already older than someone like Travis Outlaw who's been in the league twice as long.  A lot of teams can use a solid interior presence and big rebounder.  I see three players that they can go for: Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, or Josh Howard.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Something to Ponder...

I guess I'll post this here since Greg seems to be a little busy to update The Trade Journal.  I've been thinking, there are various teams that have players they don't really need anymore, and so, there has to be a way to alleviate that, the easiest way would be to trade.  I post this in light of the Clippers' recently puzzling acquisition of Zach Randolph, a potent low-block offensive threat, that doesn't fit anywhere on the roster.  If we look at the pre-Randolph Clippers roster, it looked something like this:

PG- Baron Davis, Jason Hart, Mike Taylor
SG- Cuttino Mobley, Eric Gordon
SF- Al Thornton, Ricky Davis, Steve Novak
PF- Marcus Camby, Tim Thomas
C- Chris Kaman, Brian Skinner

That would be something of my guess as to what the rotation ends up looking like for Mike Dunleavy Sr. on a night to night basis, barring injuries of course.  Now that Zach Randolph has been acquired (with Mardy Collins of course, the rotation becomes convoluted.  I don't believe that Kaman or Camby would be willing to come off the bench, so I'm not so certain that's a solution...  However, one of them has to, unless you decide to start Zach Randolph at SF and bench Tim Thomas.  From what I hear, the rotation will likely be:

PG- Baron Davis, Jason Hart, Mike Taylor
SG- Ricky Davis, Eric Gordon
SF- Al Thornton, Steve Novak
PF- Zach Randolph, Brian Skinner
C- Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Paul Davis

Or something along those lines, with likely Eric Gordon getting a lot more playing time and Ricky Davis platooning time as SG and backup SF.  It sure beats having a B. Davis, R. Davis, Randolph, Camby, Kaman starting 5.  As leery as I was about a Camby/Kaman frontcourt, I can cede that yes, it can actually work.  Not ideal, but workable.  Now that I'm given the option of a Randolph/Kaman frontcourt, I think the Camby/Kaman front court looks that much more desireable.  Think about the player that Kaman is, he didn't breakout until Elton Brand was sidelined for the entire season with a ruptured Achille's tendon, meaning, he thrives in the low block.  When I think about it Chris Kaman = Eddy Curry+defense+FT%, maybe give or a take a couple of rebounds and a couple of points here and there.  We all saw how well Eddy Curry played next to Zach Randolph.  Now, a Zach Randolph/Marcus Camby frontcourt tandem, might work, as moving Camby back to center will enable him to roam and be a stop plug like in Denver, and while Randolph is apathetic at best on defense, he's still a bigger body up against the bigger post players.  I'm not saying it'll be top notch, but it will be a heck of a lot better than a Randolph/Kaman tandem.  

So what do we do with Kaman?  Trade him of course.  Let the speculating begin!

Firstly, if we look at the Clippers they don't really have much to offer other than just Kaman, which is a 4 year contract making $9.5 million this year.  Incidentally Gerald Wallace of the Bobcats has the same exact contract (light bulb).  However, if I'm the Bobcats' GM, I should recognize, that a Kaman/Okafor tandem might not be the best solution, actually, it'd be pretty ugly (then again, I could be wrong).  Honestly, if Okafor were to play PF next to any center it'd have to be someone a little more versatile and able to get out of the lane, say like Mehmet Okur.  We've been hearing Wallace's name banging around for a while on the trade blocks though, and he'd definitely bolster a really weak wing position in the Clippers' offense, yes, it might mean we bench Al Thornton again, but he can be instant offense off the bench.

Now, if we look at teams that are looking for a kind of traditional, bang-it-in-the-middle kind of center, the two glaring teams that have said need would be Miami or Dallas.  Dallas's need has been quite obvious for the past couple of years, Erick Dampier is no Tim Duncan.  He can't really hold down the middle, and while he's a decent rebounder, that's the extent of his skillset.  There's no true post player to play next to a plethora of wing players (Josh Howard, Jason Terry, Dirk Nowitzki) and Jason Kidd.  Enter Kaman, that would solve that problem, right?  However, the only thing that I think the Clippers would want out of Dallas would be either Jason Terry or Josh Howard, and more likely the latter than the former.  I don't know if Dallas would be willing to part with either one, and if I were LA I would not be looking for some Jerry Stackhouse + Shawne Williams package either.

So Miami, well, Miami doesn't have much to offer, except for the expiring contract of Shawn Marion.  Marion just doesn't fit.  He's kind of stifling Beasley's development, as well as forcing Haslem to play center, though, Mark Blount and Joel Anthony aren't exactly much better prospects.  The problem is, Shawn Marion makes $17 million, that's a hefty sum that Kaman won't match straight up, and Clippers really don't have the assets to match.  Additionally, Marion at the 3 in Clipperland, isn't exactly a significant improvement from Al Thornton, seriously.  Marion can't shoot.  He's like Lamar Odom with defense.  One of those weird guys who you can't draw a play for.

That simply means: three-way trade!  It took me a while to get here, but I think this needed a little prefacing, and I'm hoping that maybe this will get Greg's attention so I can get some feedback, especially since it has to do with getting rid of Marion.

LA Clippers send Chris Kaman to Miami Heat
Miami Heat send Shawn Marion to Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte Bobcats send Gerald Wallace to LA Clippers and Raymond Felton and Adam Morrison to Miami Heat

For the Clippers:
As discussed above, Kaman is somewhat expendable now.  While Thornton is a prolific scorer, perhaps it would be better for him to come off the bench since he and Randolph are something of black holes on the offense.  Wallace on the other hand, provides stronger wing play, and a little bit of perimeter defensive legitimacy to the Clippers.  This creates depth on the wing positions and slides Camby back to the center position where he did so well (relatively speaking) for the Nuggets. 
Projected Lineup:
PG-Baron Davis, Jason Hart, Mike Taylor
SG- Ricky Davis, Eric Gordon, Mardy Collins
SF- Gerald Wallace, Al Thornton
PF- Zach Randolph, Brian Skinner
C- Marcus Camby, Paul Davis

For the Heat:
They're looking for a PG and a center.  Kaman gives you the big man, and Felton, while by no means an all-star name, is a viable starting caliber PG.  While Chalmers is starting to bring it, he's not done so consistenty, and thus, I think would be better suited developing in a backup role until he's ready, additionally, Marcus Banks has not really brought it since preseason.  Felton on the other hand, has not been extended beyond this year, so if Chalmers becomes a stud, Felton just walks.  Furthermore, Larry Brown doesn't like Felton very much, then again, Larry Brown doesn't like most of his team.  I think Felton at the very least, can be as good as championship edition Jason Williams.  With Marion gone, the Heat can further develop Beasley's already solid offensive game and slide Haslem back to a more comfortable PF position.
Projected Lineup:
PG- Raymond Felton, Mario Chalmers, Chris Quinn
SG- Dwayne Wade, Daequan Cook
SF- Michael Beasley, Yakhouba Diawara, Adam Morrison
PF- Udonis Haslem
C- Chris Kaman, Mark Blount, Joel Anthony
or something like that

For the Bobcats:
Finally, someone legitimate to start next to Okafor.  Okafor doesn't really need to play at PF, but it would help if he had someone on the blocks that would help him out with rebounding.  Enter, Shawn Marion.  Marion thrives as an undersized PF, and is a very good rebounder.  He'll more than pick up the slack in that aspect and fills a position that Larry Brown desperately needed filled since Sean May is out of shape, seriously, he's gone to starting a Jared Dudley/Gerald Wallace forward tandem.  Additionally, should the need arise, Marion is also a legitimate perimeter defender and really can pick up the assignments that Wallace had should the need arise.  This will further allow the Bobcats to develop DJ Augustin and Jared Dudley, and Marion just needs to fill in the gaps when necessary, and that's when he (Marion) plays his best.  Of course, Bobcats have been trying to get rid of Morrison, and I think they can get away with it since they're also giving away a lot of talent (and Miami is filling its needs and definitely needs some depth at the SF position).
Projected Lineup:
PG- DJ Augustin
SG- Jason Richardson, Shannon Brown
SF- Jared Dudley, Matt Carroll
PF- Shawn Marion, Sean May
C- Emeka Okafor, Nazr Mohammed, Ryan Hollins

I'm sure the Bobcats can pick up a backup point somewhere out there.

UPDATE: Rumors have Jason Richardson's name milling around, which might work better for the Clippers anyways.  In which case Bobcats can just give up Adam Morrison to the Heat who need wing depth, Clippers get Richardson, Bobcats get Marion still, and Clippers would probably have to give up someone else, maybe Jason Hart to bolster the backcourt.  This enables Miami to better develop Mario Chalmers and the Clippers to continue to work Al Thornton in.  Here are projected lineups:

Clippers:
PG- Baron Davis, Mike Taylor
SG- Jason Richardson, Eric Gordon
SF- Al Thornton, Ricky Davis, Steve Novak
PF- Zach Randolph, Brian Skinner
C- Marcus Camby, Paul Davis, DeAndre Jordan

Heat:
PG- Mario Chalmers, Jason Hart, Marcus Banks
SG- Dwayne Wade, Chris Quinn, Daequan Cook
SF- Michael Beasley, Yakhouba Diawara, Adam Morrison
PF- Udonis Haslem
C- Chris Kaman, Mark Blount

Bobcats:
PG- Raymond Felton, DJ Augustin
SG- Matt Carroll, Shannon Brown
SF- Gerald Wallace, Jared Dudley
PF- Shawn Marion, Sean May, Ryan Hollins
C- Emeka Okafor, Alexis Ajinca, Nazr Mohammed

Friday, November 21, 2008

Wait... what?

Donnie Walsh is vehemently trying to dump his players for the 2010, you'll hear that year a lot, 2010, not really because it's anything special, well, except for the lotto free agency that happens then, namely; LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh.  In the case of the Knicks, it's more just LeBron James.  In order to throw any reasonable kind of contract at him though, Donnie Walsh has to trim some fat.  The criteria then for trading with the Knicks, is simply; having a contract that expires on or before 2010.

Now, Zach Randolph has been producing, say what you will about him, how he's slow, apathetic on defense, and a black hole, he's been producing (20.5 pts, 12.5 rbds, 1.2 asst, 1.4 stls on 43.4% shooting).  He's showed that he can thrive in the D'Antoni system, and put up impressive numbers, which actually may have been all Donnie Walsh wanted him to do.  Now, he pulls this.  Honestly, the Clippers are the most trade-frenzied team I've ever seen.  First they lose Elton Brand and they pull Marcus Camby for a second round pick (a steal, granted), and there were questions about how well that's worked out (their 2-9 record states not so well), but seriously, Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley for Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins?  Ok, so Mardy Collins is a filler, so essentially, 2 old guys you don't want for Zach Randolph.  Wait... what?

So we all know why this works from a Knicks perspective, it's a salary dump, but why the heck would the Clippers do this?  I've been trying to wrap my brain around how the Clippers' lineup is going to work, and honestly, it's fairly mind-boggling.  It's almost like they're banking on Marcus Camby being hurt.  Not really sure how this will work out...  Do they start Z-Bo at SF?  That's a lot of body on the court sure, but that's also a lot of laziness for a guy you expect to be staying in front of LeBron and Paul Pierce.  Seriously...  The only thing I see making sense would be:

PG- Baron Davis, Jason Hart, Mike Taylor
SG- Ricky Davis, Eric Gordon
SF- Al Thornton, Steve Novak
PF- Zach Randolph
C- Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Brian Skinner, DeAndre Jordan

Unless again, you want a starting 5 of B-Diddy, Ricky Davis, Z-Bo, Camby, and Kaman, I shudder in fear as to the horrendous basketball that would be played because of it.  I do not envy Dunleavy Sr.'s job right now, unless the Clippers seriously trade Kaman for someone... (Jason Terry?)  I won't even go into how Al Thornton and Zach Randolph are two major black holes on offense.

For the Knicks, I mean, it doesn't make a lot of sense, they just traded away their two top scorers, but it doesn't actually hurt them that much.  I mean, essentially it's Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford, and Mardy Collins for Al Harrington, Cuttino Mobley, and Tim Thomas:

PG- Chris Duhon, Anthony Roberson
SG- Cuttino Mobley, Nate Robinson
SF- Quentin Richardson, Tim Thomas
PF- Wilson Chandler, David Lee, Malik Rose
C- Al Harrington, Jerome James, Eddy Curry

It doesn't look pretty, but hey, remember, 2010.

Big News Trade Review

So I think that I've dealt with the Iverson-Billups trade previously, the next new blockbuster to occur is a Knicks-Warriors trade. There are various sources stating what exactly is going down, but all that is consistent is that Donnie Walsh wants Al Harrington, again. Some say there's a three way sending Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins to the Clippers and Jamal Crawford to the Warriors for Tim Thomas, Cuttino Mobley, and Al Harrington. Another has Harrington being traded straight up for the expiring contract of Malik Rose. Finally, the one that I give the most credence to, would be a Jamal Crawford for Al Harrington straight up. So Donnie Walsh loves Al Harrington, yup.

How does this trade break down for the teams though? Does it make sense? Well, beyond the Knicks trying to cut payroll and Don Nelson and Al Harrington hating each other, there's still a lot of merit behind the trade. Let's look at this from a roster and talent perspective.

Jamal Crawford is by no means anything of a point guard but you can't deny that he definitely has ball handling abilities. He can take it off the dribble, and is able to find players for the assist. With Nellie's system of giving guards a larger degree of freedom, I can see him sharing the ball handling duties quite well with Stephen Jackson and his stint with D'Antoni's run-and-gun system can only help him with Don Nelson's wacky variant. Additionally, the removal of Harrington enables the Warriors to develop their promising young talent in Brandan Wrigth and Anthony Randolph. Crawford might not be the ultimate answer, but he's not a bad insurance policy until (if) Monta Ellis makes it back full speed. For now, given a healthy lineup, I see the Warriors depth chart looking like so:

PG- Jamal Crawford, CJ Watson, DeMarcus Nelson
SG- Stephen Jackson, Anthony Morrow, Marco Belinelli
SF- Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike
PF- Brandan Wright, Anthony Randolph
C- Andris Biedrins, Ronny Turiaf

Of course it's Don Nelson, so you're never really sure what he's going to do, he might start Morrow and slide Maggette and Jackson over to the PF and SF slots respectively. Of course, given that Nelson might also only play 9 deep, with likely Turiaf or Randolph being the 9th player, I highly doubt that Watson, Nelson, and especially Belinelli will ever see any playing time. It's really not a bad lineup for the Warriors, at the very least, Crawford is an entertaining player, so in that respect he fits the Warriors perfectly.

For the Knicks, firstly, it's cost cutting. Should Harrington not opt out next season (player option I believe) then he expires in 2010, fine, that's $9-10 million of cap space he's relieving. Brilliant. What that does for the Knicks is also give them a little flexibilty with their roster in their 2010 free agent run. Should they not get LeBron they could always make a run for Dwayne Wade. Dwayne Wade in D'Antoni's system = crazy. Harrington is to me, a slightly above average player, we all know that he can score, at the very least, he can score. He's got a decent 3 pt shot (career average of 35.8%) and he's actually pretty good at finishing. To me, all-in-all, he's like a poor man's Rashard Lewis, some have also likened him to being a poor man's Antawn Jamison (without the rebounding maybe). He would fit into D'Antoni's system pretty well, and in essence would be something of D'Antoni's replacement for Boris Diaw, minus the defense and plus a little offense. I personally think that Harrington should and will get a lot of touches, and with Wilson Chandler developing and Zach Randolph once again putting up the 20-10s that we're accustomed to seeing, the team will be both entertaining to watch, and very potent offensively. Unfortunately, Harrington hasn't ever really shown much inclination on the defensive end, but with the Knicks, that hasn't really been much of an issue, as no one else on the roster (except maybe Chandler) have. It does leave the Knicks a little thin on the 2 guard spot though I actually could imagine either Chandler or Richardson sliding over instead of starting Nate Robinson (I love the guy, but he's definitely a 6th man/bench/energy player). That leaves the lineup looking something like:

PG- Chris Duhon, Mardy Collins, Anthony Roberson
SG- Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson
SF- Wilson Chandler
PF- Al Harrington, David Lee, Malik Rose
C- Zach Randolph, Jerome James, Eddy Curry

It's a thin lineup. I can see Richardson platooning time at SG and SF with Robinson coming in and out, and then Chandler sliding all over with from SG to PF and Harrington sliding around from SF to C getting you only as deep as Nate Robinson and David Lee (and maybe Mardy Collins?). D'Antoni is probably hoping that eventually Danilo Gallinari and Jared Jeffries make it back, soon.

All in all, it makes a lot of sense for both teams, I can understand why it went through.

Friday, November 14, 2008

USA vs International NBA

Ok, so this has been hashed out again and again, especially since the Olympics, and we've already discovered that the gap between US and the international scene in terms of basketball really isn't that big.  The number international players is greater, and honestly, the talent is there.  We still dominated the Olympics though, not because I think that the talent isn't there but it's spread out, US still has the highest concentration of raw talent, if we were to look at, however, best of US vs the best of international NBA players, I think the story would be quite different. I don't know, here's my take (assuming this is like an NBA basketball exhibition game, all players healthy and all that stupid "reitired from international" stuff aside, also, we'll say that Tim Duncan doesn't have a problem because he's not playing the Virgin Islands)

The US NBA Players:
PG- Chris Paul, Deron Williams
SG- Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Joe Johnson
SF- LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony
PF- Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Garnett, Chris Bosh
C- Dwight Howard, Tim Duncan
Res: Paul Pierce, Tracy McGrady

The International NBA Players:
PG- Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Jose Calderon
SG- Manu Ginobili, Leandro Barbosa
SF- Luol Deng, Hedo Turkoglu
PF- Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Nene Hilario
C- Yao Ming, Andris Biedrins
Res: Rudy Fernandez, Samuel Dalembert

I'm not sure, the USA players might have more marquee names, but I don't think the score differnential will be as big as some might expect.  I think it'd be a really close game, something of a tossup.  What do you think?

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Best Draft Classes Represented in the NBA

As you've noticed I like these hypothetical situations.  So I took a look at all the drafts going back to 1995 and decided that if I were to do a 6 man tourney of today's NBA players, with 6 players from each draft class representing a team.  You end up getting 15 teams (I made a team of undrafted players).  In trying to determine the best draft class out there, granted some of the younger draft classes have more to prove than some of the older ones and you really can't expect much from the rookie or sophomore class, but hey, it's still fun to speculate.  It'd be like a mini-conference, and it's kinda fun throwing together these rosters.  Let's assume everyone is healthy (I only picked active NBA players, ie, not retired, we assume they play sometime this year), heck, I'll even say what team I think they'd be like this year.

1st.) Draft Class of 1996 (Boston Celtics: All star cast who might suprise you defensively)
PG- Steve Nash
SG- Allen Iverson
SF- Kobe Bryant
PF- Jermaine O'Neal
C- Marcus Camby
6th man- Ray Allen

There's just so much firepower on this squad I don't even know where to begin, first you have right now the best and arguably most refined player in the NBA; Kobe Bryant.  Then you add in one of the premier points in Steve Nash, who also is an elite shooter (50% FG, 40% 3pt, 90% FT), Allen Iverson, one of the best pure scorers ever, and two solid defensive minded big men in Jermaine and Camby, it's neigh unstoppable, add in one of the last premier pure shooters (one who can create nontheless) in Ray Allen as a reserve, and you can't get any more high powered than that.

2nd.) Draft Class of 2003 (LA Lakers: Sick looking roster on paper, might have some holes we didn't think of)
PG- LeBron James
SG- Dwayne Wade
SF- Carmelo Anthony
PF- David West
C- Chris Bosh
6th man- Josh Howard

This is a very explosive offensive squad and one that can play well together (note 2008 Olympics where Wade, James, Anthony, and Bosh were all teammates).  LeBron I think will easily become the best player in the league, and possibly the best player we've ever seen for a while, especially considering he, along with Melo and Bosh won't reach their primes until the 2012 Olympics.  Howard is a solid scorer off the bench and West is an aggresive player who quietly finds his shots and boards.  However, the biggest concern about this squad would be perimeter play, the next would be defense.  Unlike the '96 squad, Bosh and West won't cover up defensive mistakes like O'Neal and Camby would, additionally, as underrated as Wade and LeBron are on defense, I don't know that they have the stopping power that Kobe Bryant does either, that's why they slide to number 2.  These guys will get killed beyond the arc though, however, on the other hand, they likely would be able to run the other team to death.

3rd.) Draft Class of 1999 (Phoenix Suns: the effective running team)
PG- Baron Davis
SG- Manu Ginobili
SF- Ron Artest
PF- Shawn Marion
C- Elton Brand
6th man - Richard Hamilton

If I could get a coach to run with a team like this it would be Don Nelson.  First thing you probably notice is that yes, this is a really small team.  Elton Brand is undersized for a 4 and even Shawn Marion is a little short, but they are all aggressive and will run you to the ground.  This is a team that would run at you full kilter and just simply try to outscore you, I'd actually really like to see all these guys play together sometime, I bet you it'd be a lot of fun.  That being said, they'd also get outmuscled by any team with a semi-legitimate frontcourt.  Though, Marion and Brand are pretty efficient rebounding forwards.

4th.) Draft Class of 2001 (Toronto Raptors: inside-outside, works in theory)
PG- Gilbert Arenas
SG- Joe Johnson
SF- Jason Richardson
PF- Pau Gasol
C- Tyson Chandler
6th man - Tony Parker

The more I look at this, the more I realize this is a fairly potent inside-outside team.  With Joe Johnson and Jason Richardson spotting up at the wings and Gilbert Arenas taking it from the top of the key.  You get Pau Gasol to post in the high post and Tyson Chandler patrolling the middle and reading for the easy spin move/alley-oop or the quick offensive board and putback.  Run a quick high screen and Arenas breaks open for an open three or drives, should he drive then find Chandler for the quick bucket, or should the defense follow find Gasol for the open 15 footer on the roll, if the defense collapses find either Johnson or Richardson open for the three or drive.  Additionally both Richardson and Johnson can create their own shots as well, throw in Parker if you need a little extra push and aggresiveness around the rim or something, but all in all, I like how this team ends up being constructed.  Of course, it's a team that could all too easily fall in love with jumpshots too.

5th.) Draft Class of 2002 (Houston Rockets: you know what you're getting and it's pretty consistenly good)
PG- John Salmons
SG- Tayshaun Prince
SF- Caron Butler
PF- Amare Stoudemire
C- Yao Ming
6th man- Carlos Boozer

This would be a fairly solid team, both Amare and Yao are pretty versatile in both the low and high posts, so they could definitely give the frontcourts a major matchup problem.  Prince I believe can man the 2 slot well enough and would be a solid defensive stop.  I really couldn't find a good guard so I put in John Salmons who is a decent ball handler.  Caron Butler is a solid finisher and Boozer is just another big body off the bench should they need more inside presence.  That being said, it's a solid team but not a standout team.

6th.) Draft Class of 2004 (Philadelphia 76ers: maybe they're a little better at shooting, but they'll run you like crazy)
PG- Ben Gordon
SG- Kevin Martin
SF- Josh Smith
PF- Al Jefferson
C- Dwight Howard
6th man- Andre Iguodala

It was kind of a toss up for me between Iggy and Luol Deng, but I like Iggy's game a little better, and he's shown to be slightly more consistent.  An Al Jefferson/Dwight Howard frontcourt could be potentially monstrous should they coexist effectively, or disastrous should they only get in each other's way, I can see either one happening.  However, a Ben Gordon/Kevin Martin backcourt would be fast and explosive, especially with Josh Smith running with them.  They could also run small subbing out Jefferson and running Iggy at the 3 and Josh Smith at the 4, being a super fast, super athletic team.  Howard just crashboards and the 4 other players take off waiting for an outlet.  I mean, it's something of a waste of Howard's offensive talents, but I'm sure they'd throw him an alley-oop here and there as he trails in behind the offense.

7th.) Draft Class of 1997 (San Antonio Spurs: solid all around, no frills, down to business)
PG- Chauncey Billups
SG- Anthony Parker
SF- Tracy McGrady
PF- Tim Thomas
C- Tim Duncan
6th man- Stephen Jackson

I can actually see this team doing potentially very well, they actually are a reasonably constructed team, and I can actually see a lineup like this happening in the NBA, like, as an actual team, not an All-Star team.  Obviously the focus of the offense will be around Billups, McGrady, and Duncan with Thomas and Parker playing more role positions and shooting a lot of 3s.  Stephen Jackson would be a solid player off the bench and contribute both in scoring and a little on the defense.  Definitely a solid, solid team.

8th.) Draft Class of 1998 (Golden State Warriors: live by the 3, die by the 3)
PG- Mike Bibby
SG- Vince Carter
SF- Paul Pierce
PF- Antawn Jamison
C- Dirk Nowitzki
6th man- Rashard Lewis

This will be an explosive high scoring team, I can see them averaging like 50 threes per game.  The problem, they'll be abused like no other down on the block.  They don't have a single legitimate low post presence.  However, that may not be a problem, as they have a legitimate 3 pt threat in every position, they can try to trade buckets, and hope to win out that way.

9th.) Draft Class of 2005 (Portland Trailblazers: young and should be good, but could possibly be overhyped)
PG- Chris Paul
SG- Deron Williams
SF- Danny Granger
PF- David Lee
C- Andrew Bynum
6th man- Monta Ellis

10th.) Draft Class of 2006 (Chicago Bulls: The team some ends up being less than the sum of its parts)
PG- Rajon Rondo
SG- Brandon Roy
SF- Rudy Gay
PF- Tyrus Thomas
C- LaMarcus Aldridge
6th man- Randy Foye

11th.) Draft Class of 1995 (Sacramento Kings: they're not bad, they're not good, they'll float in the middle and you kind of would forget about them)
PG- Brent Barry
SG- Jerry Stackhouse
SF- Kevin Garnett
PF- Antonio McDyess
C- Rasheed Wallace
6th man- Joe Smith

12th.) Draft Class of 2007 (Minnesota Timberwolves: a lot of young talent that will do well but get no where with it)
PG- Rodney Stuckey
SG- Kevin Durant
SF- Thaddeus Young
PF- Al Thornton
C- Al Horford
6th man- Nick Young

13th.) Draft Class of 2000 (Milwaukee Bucks: wait, who's on this team?)
PG- Jamal Crawford
SG- Michael Redd
SF- Mike Miller
PF- Kenyon Martin
C- Joel Przybilla
6th man- Hedo Turkoglu

14th.) Best of the Undrafted (Memphis Grizzlies: nothing against these guys, but like the Grizzlies, no one would know why they're all on the same team)
PG- Jose Calderon
SG- Raja Bell
SF- Andres Nocioni
PF- Udonis Haslem
C- Brad Miller
6th man- Ben Wallace

15th.) Draft Class of 2008 (Oklahoma City Thunder: potential and upside, that's it)
PG- Derrick Rose
SG- OJ Mayo
SF- Michael Beasley
PF- Jason Thompson
C- Brook Lopez
6th man- Russell Westbrook

2012 Olympic Roster

Ok ok, I know it's still kind of early, but you know me, I like these kind of random speculations, so assuming we look forward to 2012 Olympics (London, right?) what kind of roster are we looking at?  Some of the players will have to go, Jason Kidd will be 39 and likely long retired, Kobe Bryant 34, Tayshaun Prince 32, and Carlos Boozer 31, which means, that the rest of the core is younger, significantly younger.  The solid core of the team, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams will be around the 27-28 mark, aka their prime, scary.  So who do we bring back?  Well here are my projected starters if I were making the team:

PG - Chris Paul
SG - Dwayne Wade
SF - LeBron James
PF - Chris Bosh
C - Dwight Howard

Dwayne Wade will be turning 30 during those Olympics but keeping him on as a sort of veteran leadership wouldn't necessarily be a bad idea, additionally, this keeps a core of starters that have played together on the international scene before and know what it's like.  I personally liked Chris Bosh's contributions more than Carmelo Anthony's in the past Olympics so I'm inclined to start him over Melo, and I believe that Melo can be a more effective floor leader with the newer players in the second unit, which would be consisting of:

Guards: Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, Derrick Rose
Forwards: Carmelo Anthony, Lamarcus Aldridge, Kevin Durant
Center: Al Jefferson

So the new additions would be Roy, Aldridge, Durant, Rose, and Jefferson, with D-Will and Melo anchoring the whole team down.  It's a more traditional lineup that 2008 Olympics and creates a much more balanced team, of course, one item to note is that there is no real 3 pt specialist (like Michael Redd) so perimeter shooting might be an issue.  If he develops a consistent stroke considerations might include someone like JR Smith or someone of that ilk.  Not really sure though, but this is who I'd go with.

As a note, for the qualifiers, I would love to see an Amare Stoudemire/Dwight Howard frontcourt.  Please let that happen within the next two years in FIBA Americas.  A Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Amare Stoudemire, Dwight Howard starting 5 would be sick.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Tinkering with the Lakers, again...

Because we just can't get enough of it. Here's an idea I had a while ago, and while Odom has embraced his role as a 6th man, I think the Lakers can still improve at least in terms of players. Maybe. Maybe I'm crazy and just love tossing these ideas around. As you all probably know by now, I'm a fan for trading Lamar Odom, maybe throw in Luke Walton as well, but seriously, that guy makes enough to kind of wonder who you'd be trading for (that's like $19 million/year, no way I'm trading Odom and Walton for Marbury). So in conclusion, I would trade Lamar Odom for:

Andres Nocioni and Drew Gooden from Chicago

This is an interesting one that has potential, at least to me. Chicago is moving towards their younger players and thus are looking to jettison some of their older players, two of them being Gooden and Nocioni. I believe that Nocioni is a somewhat underrated defender, and additionally, he's very, very proficient from long-range (like all his Argentinian teammates). While Odom isn't a pure post player, he does finish well at the rim and is a big body for rebounding, upgrade from Drew Gooden. Gooden on the other hand adds some legitimacy to the reserves on the frontcourt for the Lakers, playing behind Gasol, he's a solid post presence that won't take a lot away from the team. Not exactly the first guy you think of when you ask about PFs but we're not asking for premier caliber here. So Gooden will be more than sufficient, I think he'd be better than most backup PFs out there. The question once again becomes though ego, can Gooden settle with coming off the bench? Certainly though he's been a starter before, and I think would be a solid backup should either Gasol or Bynum get injured. The Lakers' depth chart ends up looking like:

PG - Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar
SG - Kobe Bryant, Sasha Vujacic
SF - Andres Nocioni, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton
PF - Pau Gasol, Drew Gooden, Vladamir Radmanovic
C - Andrew Bynum, Chris Mihm

Odom on the other hand would bring experience and a solid player next to Luol Deng, and another scoring option. I think with a player like Derrick Rose, Odom could really thrive. Of course that all depends on how well Tyrus Thomas and/or Joakim Noah can hold down the C spot. However, either way I can see it working out. It could possibly add another headache to the guard platoon that has been alleviated with the injury of Larry Hughes but I could see the Chicago depth chart looking like:

PG - Derrick Rose
SG - Kirk Hinrich, Larry Hughes, Ben Gordon
SF - Luol Deng, Thabo Sefalosha, Demetris Nichols
PF - Lamar Odom, Tyrus Thomas, Cedric Simmons
C - Joakim Noah, Aaron Gray

Or something of the sort, the whole backcourt situation on Chicago is a little on the messy side. That's my take.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

10 yr vets vs 5 yrs or younger

Do you think experience makes a difference?  Let's see how you like this then:

I have three rosters, one consisting of players in the NBA for 10 or more years (in their 10th year), one for players 5 or less (in their 5th year), and one for everyone in the middle.  Who'd win?

10 or more
PG: Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups
SG: Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Vince Carter
SF: Tracy McGrady, Paul Pierce
PF: Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Rasheed Wallace
C: Tim Duncan, Marcus Camby
Res: Rashard Lewis, Jason Kidd, Ray Allen

5-10
PG: Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas
SG: Joe Johnson, Michael Redd, Manu Ginobili
SF: Caron Butler, Gerald Wallace
PF: Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Elton Brand
C: Yao Ming, Tyson Chandler
Res: Richard Hamilton, Jason Richardson, Tony Parker

5 and under
PG: Chris Paul, Deron Williams
SG: Dwayne Wade, Brandon Roy
SF: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Kevin Durant
PF: Chris Bosh, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson
C: Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor
Res: Luol Deng, Danny Granger, David West

Ok so here are the lineups.  Who do you think will win this one?  Just something I thought I'd throw together.  Assuming right here right now playing, who wins, who loses, who would you swap out and why?  Take it away.

Monday, November 3, 2008

Blockbuster 2.0 in the making

Yahoo! Sports has this going down within the hour, about an hour ago, so supposedly it happened.

Not really sure what to write about it, but in order for me to be on top of things and this to breaking to the people that only folly Poor Man's GM (which is nobody), here's a tidbit.

The trade is essentially Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess.  Rumors also have Cheick Samb floating around here and there but he's kind of a non-factor that just makes the money work.  

The initial reaction is that neither team really gets significantly younger, but it does shake things up.  Let's look at it from team to team:

Denver Nuggets:

Well, if this falls through the projected lineup would probably look something like this:

Starting 5:
PG- Chauncey Billups
SG- JR Smith
SF- Carmelo Anthony
PF- Kenyon Martin
C- Nene Hilario

Off the bench:
Guards: Anthony Carter, Chucky Atkins, Sonny Weems
Forwards: Linas Kleiza, Renaldo Balkman, Antonio McDyess, Juwan Howard
Centers: Chris Anderson, Steven Hunter

I'm with the party that believes that Chauncey Billups is a bigger upgrade over Anthony Carter than JR Smith is a downgrade from Allen Iverson.  If JR Smith has shown us anything, it's that he can score, and Allen Iverson was a scorer.  While Iverson may be more proven, I'm willing to take my chances with the younger scoring shooting guard.  Billups adds size and veterancy to the backcourt and someone who can both shoot the ball, adding a greater perimeter threat in addtion to the moving of JR Smith to the starting lineup, and someone who is unselfish and is effective at running the offense.  It'll be interesting to see how things work out, as the Nuggets will likely slow their pace down a bit.  However, the roster looks to be a bit more solid and you don't run into the problem of Melo and Iverson each doing their own thing, should the chemistry work Billups brings more to a team than just his numbers, he makes the team more of a team.  At least that's what he did in Detroit, we'll see if that carries over.  McDyess shores up a think frontcourt and is a solid hustler and will likely platoon time with Kenyon Martin keeping them both fresher.  The biggest concern is who backs up JR Smith, I can see points in time where Billups maybe plays 2 with Anthony Carter sliding into the lineup, otherwise, I expect Kleiza to be the main backup 2 guard.  Can't say I've seen enough of Kleiza to say whether or not that's good or bad.

Detroit:

This is where the trade raises a couple of question marks, the starting lineup projected would probably be something like this:

Starting 5:
PG- Allen Iverson
SG- Richard Hamilton
SF- Tayshaun Prince
PF- Amir Johnson
C- Rasheed Wallace

Off the bench
Guards: Rodney Stuckey, Arron Afflalo, Will Bynum
Forwards: Walter Hermann, Jason Maxiell, Walter Sharp
Centers: Kwame Brown

It'll be interesting to see how Iverson fits into the system, though the Pistons do need a player who can just simply take over games.  Handing the reigns over to his hands however, might not be the greatest idea, unless Michael Curry decides to start Stuckey and slide everyone over a slot, benching Amir Johnson and playing small.  Either way, it's not idea, but I can see it working.  Iverson is a proficient passer when has a mind to, though his option is to always score first.  I think he'll draw enough attention that Hamilton, Prince, Johnson, and Wallace will all be able to do well, but then it's a matter of getting them the ball.  We'll see how this pans out, it's another one of those big risk, big reward moves.

If we're to look at the Iverson trade from a financial standpoint it's actually quite ingenious.  If Iverson doesn't win the ring then oh well, it was a good run, and good bye.  Extra $20 mil on the books, Sheed wants to retire, there goes another $13 mil.  They extended Rip, but they have around $30 mil to play around with in free agency, enabling them to probably land someone like Lamar Odom or Hedo Turkoglu end of this year and make a serious run for LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, or Amare Stoudemire while still resigning Tayshaun Prince in 2010.  Joe Dumars is a genius to say the least, and this is one of the smoothest transitions I've seen yet.

UPDATE: Samb is indeed included in the package, a lot of people believe that this would likely lead to a buyout of McDyess who would probably return to Detroit in 30 days.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Upgrade for OKC?

I was reading through Yahoo! BDL's preview of the OKC Thunder, and two glaring weaknesses that could be construed are PG and C slots, granted you could argue that every position not currently played by Kevin Durant is weak. Some would argue the SG slot if you consider Russell Westbrook a PG type player, something of a defensive minded 1, kind of like Rajon Rondo, however, it could also be argued, as Zorgon from Blue Blitz points out, that Westbrook might be better suited at a 2 slot than the 1 (see item 9). As much as we try to talk ourselves into believing that Robert Swift is not a bust, the fact that you oftentimes have to start Nick Collison at center leads me to believe that hte center position is weak. Here's my call, and if you disagree, you disagree, but I think it gives the Thunder a legitimate shot.

Send Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith to Charlotte for Raymond Felton and Nazr Mohammed.

While I mentioned that sending Wilcox and Wilkins to Golden State for Al Harrington seemed like a good idea, to more than just me, beyond purely financial reasons, Al Harrington doesn't really address a whole lot of the problems that OKC beyond maybe perimeter shooting. Deal breaker? Well in this one it would definitely have to be Nazr Mohammed's $18 million contract over the next 3 years, but given the roster construction of the current roster, I don't see that it's that big of deal, OKC develops over the next couple of years (which they will need to develop) and Mohammed becomes another expiring contract that Sam Presti can magically turn into some trade exception or 5 draft picks, all first round.

Ok, all joking aside let's look at how this works out. We have Russell Westbrook develop as a defensive minded SG, a defensive stopper, something akin to Raja Bell, and then we start Raymond Felton at the PG. For all our woes about Felton, he's a solid point, just a little overshadowed by his draft class, you know, like by Deron Williams and Chris Paul. However, Felton I believe is a major upgrade and I believe will definitely help facilitate an offense that is ridiculously stagnant. Furthermore, with Westbrook sliding into a 2 slot Durant can move to where we all believe he will be better suited playing, at SF. By trading off Chris Wilcox and Joe Smith, the PF slot platoon is also cleared and you have fewer people playing out of position. For the moment I'd startNick Collison and have Jeff Green kind of work his way in off the bench. While Nazr Mohammed isn't exactly the most sexy name in terms of centers, he's shown he can start. After being traded to Charlotte for Primoz Brezec and Walter Hermann, Mohammed started for a bit with Emeka Okafor sliding over to the PF slot. He averaged 17pts, 9.4rbds, 0.8 blcks, and 0.8 stls in 5 games on 74.1% shooting. Okafor didn't do horribly either, posting 14.4 ppg and 11 rpg during that same stint, then, to the confusion of many fantasy owners, Mohammed was abruptly benched. However, that I believe is enough of a glimpse to show that Mohammed can make himself effective as a starter. Regardless of any reservations you might have about him, he is at worst serviceable, and in my opinion a significant upgrade over Swift and Petro. The depth chart ends up looking something like this:


PG- Raymond Felton, Earl Watson
SG- Russell Westbrook, Damien Wilkins
SF- Kevin Durant, Desmond Mason
PF- Nick Collison, Jeff Green, Steven Hill
C- Nazr Mohammed, Robert Swift, Johan Petro

Not great by any means but an upgrade to what they have now.

I don't think Larry Brown would've lobbied so hard to draft DJ Augustin that high if he was just going to be a backup to Raymond Felton, that pick could've been much better spent on something else. Which leads us to conjecture that Raymond Felton is not the Bobcats' PG of the future, aka Larry Brown doesn't really like him. From all the reports I've read, Larry Brown doesn't really like anyone on the team, except maybe Jared Dudley. So the Bobcats add to their frontcourt depth, and bolster the PF slot at least a little which I think needed the most work. Worst case scenario, perhaps Gerald Wallace and Joe Smith can be packaged together to make another trade, either way, they get cap flexibility and an improved roster in the frontcourt, which is what they're looking for. Personally, I'd start Wilcox and then work Joe Smith into the rotation allowing both to see some time at center should Brown decide to run a smaller lineup, this also allows Sean May a little more time to fully recover and perhaps become the player he's supposed to be, gives Alexis Ajinca some time to develop, keep Emeka Okafor where he is most effective, in the paint, and keep Gerald Wallace where he won't get concussions, at SF. This creates a lineup that looks something I think, like:

PG- DJ Augustin
SG- Jason Richardson, Matt Carroll, Shannon Brown
SF- Gerald Wallace, Jared Dudley, Adam Morrison
PF- Chris Wilcox, Joe Smith, Sean May
C- Emeka Okafor, Alexic Ajinca

It does leave the Bobcats a little thin at the PG slot, but I think you can package something to get a backup PG of some sort. Though I supppose good ones are hard to come by, maybe tack John Lucas III onto the trade for a draft pick? Anyway, this is the brunt of it, I think maybe it works? It doesn't make either team a contender right away, but it definitely is an upgrade, I think.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Season Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder

Finally, we're done after this, and right before start of the season too.

Starting 5:
PG- Russell Westbrook
SG- Kevin Durant
SF- Jeff Green
PF- Chris Wilcox
C- Nick Collison

Off the bench
Guards: Earl Watson, Damien Wilkins, Kyle Weaver
Forwards: Desmond Mason, Joe Smith, DJ White
Centers: Robert Swift, Johan Petro

I have to cringe every time I think about this team, I really do. I went to school in Seattle, and while the Sonics sucked, they at least had the heydays of The Glove tossing up alley-oops to The Rain Man, and Detlef Schremph, and Sam Perkins jacking up 3s at the end of the 4th quarter. They were a team that sucked, with history. Now, they're just a team that sucks. Ok, ok, so maybe I'm not being fair, I'm not considering everything that happened and the legislation and the whole Key Arena scenario and schmo that Howard Schultz is for selling the team in the first place. Alright I'm going to try to be more objective now and not be too abrasive on the Oklahoma City fans out there, but honestly speaking, there's not much in store for them out there, especially this season.

Besides both having coached under Greg Popovich, PJ Carlesimo shares another thing outside of being defensive minded with Mike Brown, that is, they both run the same offensive sets, in essence, have your PG bring up the ball, and give it to your best player. Mike Brown got lucky with this one, because his best player is LeBron James. As great as Kevin Durant is and/or may be, he's no LeBron James. Considering that Durant is only 20, I see a possibility of Durant developing into a trigger happy gunner that is horribly inefficient on the floor, maybe I'm just pessimistic, but it's how he's being taught to play. Seriously, the only time I've seen this team "dominate" was when Durant decided to suit up for a Summer League game. Wilcox and Collison are solid players, but when they're your 2nd and 3rd most effective players on the floor, then I think you're in trouble. Collison to me is like those hustle player that goes for the boards and just does the dirty work, like a... white Udonis Haslem. Wilcox is basically like a more-effective Ronny Turiaf, hair and all, to me something an energy guy, he just scores a bit to go along with it. Jeff Green has shown flashes of great play, but his game is also still raw and unrefined, it's gonna take some time for him to get into it. Damien Wilkins has shown streaks of being able to take the ball to the hole, and has played well during the preseason, I might remind you he played exceptionally well at the beginning of last season before abruptly disappearing from the face of the planet. Russell Westbrook is untested and was drafted more for his defensive abilities so anything he does contribute on the offensive end would be a plus, whereas Earl Watson, well, no one's ever really been sure what to make of Earl Watson, but since Luke Ridnour's gone, I guess that makes him the point man until Westbrook comes of age or if Carlesimo starts his rookie, the backup.

Desmond Mason was brought in as a sort of marketing thing since he's from OKC, and Joe Smith is serviceable but also a non-factor on defense. Either one could snag a starting spot I suppose if things don't work out with Green and Smith outplays either Collison, Wilcox, or the both of them. Finally, if we look at the center rotation, we have Robert Swift, who hasn't been healthy enough to show to us that he really is in fact, bad, and Johan Petro who has shown us that he's somewhat worse than not good, Sene has been relegated to D-League because he's that much worse than Petro, and Ibaka will stay in Europe, because... he's not ready for the NBA? Not really sure about that. Seriously though, when a team has 2 7-foot center eligible players and is forced to start Nick Collison at the 5, not a good sign. So my call on Robert Swift, bust. I'm not going to touch the tatoos and the emo getup.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Season Preview: New York Knicks

Honestly, it wasn't the quote itself that I found interesting, but more that it's Zach Randolph saying it for some reason, and maybe that it's the Knicks.

Starting 5:
PG- Chris Duhon
SG- Jamal Crawford
SF- Quentin Richardson
PF- David Lee
C- Zach Randolph

Off the bench
Guards: Nate Robinson, Stephon Marbury, Fred Jones
Forwards: Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Patrick Ewing Jr, Jared Jeffries, Malik Rose
Centers: Jerome James, Eddy Curry

Being from New York (granted upstate) I really want to root for the Knicks, I really do, but the whole roster and the Isaiah Thomas thing, and all that, just make it really, really hard. Anyways, in looking at the roster, the thing that frightens me the most isn't necessarily the talent level, they're a decent bunch, but the fact that Jamal Crawford is getting lost in a run-and-gun system. The issue ends up being that Crawford isn't getting the touches he's used to to create his shot, he's taking almost 7 less shots per game and that's not allowing him to get into a rythm and get consistent, something he struggles with from time to time. What that means, is that very soon we could see Stephon Marbury starting in place of Crawford if this doesn't work out. That'd be interesting.

Another portent could be the packaging of Crawford with Curry and shipping them both off somewhere, clearing up some roster space for the highly anticipated 2010 free agency, especially with Randolph looking more and more like he fits the D'Antoni system quite well. Another player that thrives in the new run-and-gun system appears to be David Lee, who's hard work and hustle has always merited him to be a fan-favorite but never really got him a enough playing time under Isaiah Thomas to see his potential. Eddy Curry on the other hand has been fighting off a bacterial infection, but more importantly than that, came to camp completely out of shape. As hard as he tries now, I don't think he'll be more than the backup center at best, 3rd string at worst, which he is now. On the plus side, I don't know that he'd qualify for Yahoo!'s Eddy Curry Line should this persist. To continue along views of pessimism, beyond flashes of brilliance we saw at maybe one preseason game, 1st round pick Danilo Gallinari has been sidelined with back issues, not promising, especially considering all the scrutiny and skepticism he came with when he was drafted. However, when healthy look for him to crack the rotation, the big question is, when he will be healthy.

Nate Robinson remains another bright spot in an increasingly glum situation, however, his play hasn't merited him to be much aside from the energy 6th man, as good as the numbers he's putting up, he won't thrive as a starter, though I expect him to get a lot of minutes, like when he played behind Fred Jones last season. Wilson Chandler has been another bright spot, playing well, and producing. With Renaldo Balkman gone to Denver, he's the key SF/PF backup until Danilo Gallinari gets back. A lot speculate that since Quentin Richardson has been so unimpressive, especially for someone who's played for D'Antoni before and is familiar with the system, could lose a lot of playing time, that and the fact that he was pretty consistently injured last season.

Like the Nets, I doubt the Knicks care much about this season or the next, it's all one big project for the 2010 free agency sweepstakes. I hope something about this team makes me like them again.

Monday, October 20, 2008

The Al Harrington Project: A New Prospect

So previously, I had ranted all about how Al Harrington is untradeable, etc... etc...  However, I had also addressed that one idea that would make a lot of sense would be Al Harrington for Chris Wilcox and Damien Wilkens in a trade between OKC and the Warriors.  Throw in a draft pick from OKC and a mascot from Golden State and it would've worked out nicely.  Others thought it had a lot of merit too.  

Now as the season progresses and teams are becoming more than just paper theories, it looks Harrington might find a fit in a couple more places, well, at laest one.  Portland.

I know, I had said that they didn't want anyone.  However, they have a large glut of young talent and it's becoming almost redudant how many people they have.  Depth is definitely a strength, however, while I believe they're trading some of it away, I don't believe that it's enough to warrant it a no go.  

So here's my call: 

Golden State sends Al Harrington and a draft pick
Portland sends Sergio Rodruigez, Travis Outlaw, and Ike Diogu

So if we look at the Blazers' roster as currently constructed we get something like this going across the depth charts:

PG - Steve Blake, Jerryd Bayless, Sergio Rodruigez, Jamal Tatum
SG- Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez
SF- Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw, Nicholas Batum, Luke Jackson
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge, Ike Diogu, Channing Frye, Steven Hill
C- Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla, Raef LaFrentz

That's a pretty nice looking roster.  Ok, granted, most people don't know Luke Jackson, Jamal Tatum, or Steven Hill, most people probably have only heard of Batum and Rodruigez in passing, but I really don't see them getting that far into their depth chart.  If they do, it means that a lot of people are injured, and there's a problem.  So right now, we have Webster out due to a stress fracture in his foot, Frye out due to a surgery on his ankle, and LaFrentz out with a shoulder injury.  Frye won't really miss all that much time, and Diogu and Przybilla can fill in his shoes quite well.  With Oden on the roster, they have a lot of solid big men, and should Frye come back he'd have to fight with Diogu for playing time, very limited playing time.  LaFrentz was never really anything of a factor, since he hasn't really cracked the rotation in like 2 years, and probably won't when his contract expires.  Having Webster out hurts the most because it limits Portland in removing their key 3 point threat.  Rudy Fernandez will likely look to fill that role, and Outlaw could see some more playing time.  However, there are talks taht Batum is progessing nicely, and could start over Outlaw, leaving Outlaw to take charge of the scoring load in the 2nd squad.  So that covers the center and foward positions, what about the guards?

Well, arguably, the Blazers are weak at PG, Steve Blake is serviceable, no more, no less.  However, they will probably try to develop Jerryd Bayless into a combo guard that fills the 1 spot, especially with Brandon Roy taking over the ball handling capacities toward late game scenarios.  As much as everyone likes how Rodruigez has developed as a PG, he's pretty expendable.  So what we end up having is several serviceable, and expendable pieces.  What do we do about that?

Enter, Al Harrington.

With a starting lineup based around Roy, Aldridge, and Oden, the SF slot basically is relegated to 3 pt shooting and defense.  I would argue that Harrington answers those issues as well as Webster does.  Some would argue that Harrington only shot 37.5% from beyond the arc last season, however, I would argue that Nellie swapped him around the roster so much that he never found a rythm in a lot of games and couldn't find his shot.  I would then point out that the previous season he was hitting 43.3% from three-point land, a statistic I think is more indicative of how well Harrington performs.  While he's supposed to have the post moves of a 4, I actually would like to see Harrington run with a team that plays him as an SF.  I don't know that Harrington is a stop plug defensively, but I think with Nate McMillan's team defense tactics it's just as good if not better than starting Batum and hiding him on some matchups.  With this trade, you jettison some excess players, and then fill an immediate need.  This way, when Webster returns, he can come back slowly as a 6th (or 7th) man behind Harrington thereby adding to the 3pt weaponry that the Blazers have.  Additionally, during the 8 month period that Webster is out, you don't have to rush the development of Batum by foisting a starting slot onto him.

For the Warriors, maybe bringing back Ike Diogu isn't a great idea, but he does add size to a frontcourt thin lineup.  You can replace Harrington with Outlaw in the starting lineup, while a little smaller, is still a scrappy player, and I think can bang it.  Outlaw gets the starting slot he wants, and gets to play in a run-and-gun system that would fully utilize his athleticism.  Rodruigez would bolster a PG spot where neither DeMarcus Nelson nor Marcus Williams have been able to beat out CJ Watson, which is just plain sad, so it could potentially be an upgrade to both of those.  If that doesn't work out it's ok, because the only player you keep is the best player of the bunch, and that's Outlaw, just let Rodruigez and Diogu walk.

Granted the Blazers might have that problem with resigning Harrington should he prove an asset, but I don't see a huge problem what with Raef LaFrentz's expiring contract.  

It makes sense to me, but that might not mean it works.  Still, it's something.

Update: I sent the post over to the Blazers experts at The Rip City Project, here's their take:

Onto the actual Al Harrington trade...That's giving up way, way too much on the Blazer side of things. Those three names you mentioned are on the 'expendable' side of the Blazer spectrum. That being said...it's too much to give up all three for just Al Harrington. You had some points that he could fit in roster wise with his ability to shoot the three and play defense. That being said...too much going against him. In the past two years we've let Ime Udoka (the king of three's and defense) and James Jones (stroke and a half and tried on D). Harrington doesn't fit into the timeline. Outlaw, Webster and Rudy are young. Al....not so much. Also...he's too expensive. Travis Outlaw (while overrated by many Blazer fans) can give just as much value at a much lower cost. Sergio has this weird vibe going with Rudy Fernandez that is rejuvenating his career and Ike...well we haven't seen much of Ike. And I doubt Golden State would take him back. 
So, I can definitely see how that's a lot for Al Harrington, he does command a bit of money for the skill sets he brings.  Considering that they weren't too hesitant to let Udoka and Jones walk leads me to believe that Harrington would be a quick fix solution at best, which perhaps isn't something you'd sacrifice your youth for.  Guess it's not going to pan out in this case.  The $9 mil price tag does seem to leave me inclined to believe that Harrington will just play out this year and walk.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Season Preview: Memphis Grizzlies

Starting 5:
PG- Mike Conley
SG- OJ Mayo
SF- Rudy Gay
PF- Hakim Warrick
C- Darko Milicic

Off the bench
Guards: Kyle Lowry, Javaris Crittenton, Marko Jaric
Forwards: Darrell Arthur, Greg Buckner, Quinton Ross, Antoine Walker, Brent Petaway
Centers: Marc Gasol, Hamed Haddadi

The Grizzlies have been something of the laughing stock of the NBA for a while now, well, now until OKC decided to call their team the Thunder. They will be most well known now for ensuring Lakers title contention by trading Pau Gasol away for Kwame Brown's expiring contract, Javaris Crittenton, the rights to Marc Gasol, and Aaron McKie. Meaning all they have left now, is Javaris Crittenton, Marc Gasol, and cap space. There's a lot of talent on this team, I'm a Rudy Gay fan, despite the fact that his UConn Huskies defeated Brandon Roy's UW Huskies in the NCAA tournament (I'm a UW Alum). The biggest question is if Rudy Gay can step it up to the next level and really carry a team. Sophomore Mike Conley seems to have won the starting spot, and despite the injuries that plagued him last season, I like the numbers that he can put up. He won't be All-Star caliber, but he's serviceable and what I consider an above average starting point, you certainly could do a lot worse.

From there, everything sort of curtails into potential and hopes that that potential is realized. Darko has pretty much been deemed a draft bust, more because expectations I think were too high than that he's actually that bad. He's a serviceable player, just don't expect 20-10 from him night in and night out. Antoine Walker, well, is Antoine Walker, he takes up space and a lot of cap space, similar to Marko Jaric, except he doesn't bring as much to the floor, or a supermodel girlfriend to the area. Anyways, in terms of basketball, Marc Gasol and OJ Mayo have shown they can play, but if that carries over consistently into the regular season remains yet to be seen. All we've seen thusfar is play from Euroleague, NCAA, and the preseason (in the case of Marc Gasol, yes the Olympics as well). Marc Gasol hopefully can pan out to be almost as good as his brother, and man the middle. OJ Mayo, well, they were willing to throw Mike Miller into a package for him, which is really saying a lot about how much they like him. Worse case scenario he turns into a DeShawn Stevenson, actually, that's pretty bad. Hamed Haddaddi will get his taste of NBA action, after being cleared by US Customs to come over from Iran, he looked good in his league, but again, it's a matter of how much of his game is lost in translation.

Potential and upside team yet once again. They've been that for a while. When will they realize that potential? Who knows?

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Season Preview: Charlotte Bobcats

Only a couple more weeks!!!

Starting 5:
PG- Raymond Felton
SG- Jason Richardson
SF- Gerald Wallace
PF- Sean May
C- Emeka Okafor

Off the bench
Guards: DJ Augustin
Forwards: Matt Carroll, Jared Dudley, Adam Morrison, Shannon Brown, Jermario Davidson
Centers: Nazr Mohammed, Alexis Ajinca, Ryan Hollins, Andre Brown

I don't know, but this teams looks like it should be doing a lot better than it actually has been. I like Jason Richardson, and in terms of production, Charlotte looks like it got the better end of the deal on what was essentially a Jason Richardson for Brandon Wright straight swap. The offense should continue to run through J-Rich, though how that will work is up to the new coach: Larry Brown. If we look at the roster, the draft choice of DJ Augustin doesn't seem to make a lot of sense, and seemed to imply that Raymond Felton would be soon departing, but there's nothing for certain yet. Gerald Wallace has expressed that he refuses to play the PF position since he seems to always get concussions while doing so, and there was word out that Michael Jordan is less than pleased with his performance. Honestly, I think if any player merits a Scottie Pippen comparison it's Wallace, a lot of people forget about his defense and only point to his poor shot selection, that, and the fact that he's on the Bobcats makes his accomplishments forgettable. So here I remind you, Wallace is known for his defense first. Okafor is another solid guy that just hasn't been able to find his groove. He has the size of a power forward but plays like a center. Some say that the answer is to play a center next to him, but I feel like that's not the answer, unless you use him like a Tim Duncan kind of guy, but even Tim Duncan is effective out of the paint. We'll see, Okafor is still young, so he still has a ways to grow.

The bench isn't horrible, but it's not great. I've never really liked Adam Morrisson and nothing about him now is leading me to change my mind. Matt Carroll is a hard working but not really all that impressive to me, however, he's a solid contributor. With Wallace injured often, we saw flashes of brilliance from Jared Dudley, if he could become a solid contributor and consistent, then that'd be great. Nazr Mohammed, well, is Nazr Mohammed. With starter's minutes he put up monster production for a bit last season, and then was promptly benched, no one's ever really sure what to do with him. Look for DJ Augustin to develop as a rookie, and if Larry Brown likes him better, which arguably he does, and his game develops enough, then he could easily supplant Felton as the starting point. Things don't bode well when a 40 year old Michael Jordan shows up to practice and rocks all your players, however, we'll see. Hopefully Sean May can get back in shape. However, while this team looks good, it's also looking for a clue. I'm not really sure where they're going either.

Season Preview: Sacramento Kings

I'm really not sure why, but I keep forgetting that this team exists.  Fortunately, today, I remembered that they're there.  Here we go:

Starting 5:
PG- Beno Udrih
SG- Kevin Martin
SF- Francisco Garcia
PF- Mikki Moore
C- Brad Miller

Off the bench
Guards: Bobby Jackson, Quincy Douby, Bobby Brown
Forwards: John Salmons, Bobby Jones, Donte Greene, Kenny Thomas, Shelden Williams
Centers: Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson

When you take a second look at this team, it actually doesn't really look all that bad.  I mean, okay, you're starting Mikki Moore, things could be more ideal than that, but still it's not horrible.  Kevin Martin is a legitimate All-Star caliber talent (some say the real "Blue Light Special"), and I really like Francisco Garcia and John Salmons.  With Ron Artest and Mike Bibby now both gone, I look for Salmons and Garcia to pick up a lot of the slack.  Udrih was a pleasant surprise, and has earned a starting spot.  He's no stud that's going to light up the floor with brilliance, but he's above-average, which is harder to find than one might think in a point guard.  All in all, the team doesn't look half-bad.

That being said, it doesn't really look half-good either.  I think this team is similar to Indiana, in that it has players that everyone likes, but it's just a really average team.  Spencer Hawes still needs to find his game, Kenny Thomas needs to get off the books, and I'm not really sure what to make of Donte Greene yet.  Sure he scored 41 at a Summer League game, but obviously that wasn't enough for Houston to want to keep him.  Bobby Jackson is a solid backup, and I'm a big Bobby Jones fan, maybe it's because he's from UW.  That being said, I can't say I know how much to make of this team, they're solid, but not exceptional, which is what you have to be nowadays in the West to get anywhere.  So I'll stand by my intial gut reaction kind of assessment:  The Indiana Pacers of the West.

35-47