So, in light of today's breaking news, there is an amendment I need to make to yesterday's list of things that won't happen in the remainder of the NBA season. Originally I had written:
1.) One team with 50 wins will not make it to the playoffs
While that may still be true, I had set that down as the Warriors, I must now amend that. The thing that will not happen this season is this:
1.) Tracy McGrady and the Rockets will not be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs
In fact they won't even make it to the playoffs, because Yao Ming is out for the season with a stress fracture in his foot. With such a competitive Western Conference, losing such a potent force as Yao Ming really hurts Houston's chances at making a playoff run. They are only 2.5 and 3 games ahead of Golden State and Denver respectively, and Denver is only 6 games behind the conference leading LA Lakers. That's only 6 games between 1st place and 9th. In the East the disparity is 20.5 games (Atlanta behind Boston). Today the Rockets host the Washington Wizards, who are struggling without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, but still managed to win over New Orleans thanks to DeShawn Stevenson. While the 6th seed of the Eastern Conference may not be overly impressive, Houston goes into the game without its major piece. Yao, was having a great season, despite his scoring being down, he was still averaging 22 pts and 10.8 rbds per game. Now all of the onus of carrying the Rockets will fall on T-Mac, beceause as much as Luis Scola or Chuck Hayes step up to fill the middle, they're no where near Yao. After finishing off the month with the tanking Memphis Grizzlies, the Rockets start out March with a tough schedule playing Denver, Indiana, Dallas, and New Orleans (Indiana shouldn't be that tough, but the other three are going to be grueling). Now that one of the pillars of the Rockets is gone, they're going lean on T-Mac a lot more to carry the team, and given his history of poor health and agressive play, it would be devestating if his chronic back issues started to act up again. In short, to all you Houston fans, you had a great run (12 in a row!) but the West is just too competitive this year. Rockets, now, far from being the shoe-in at 7th, will probably drop to 9th, being edged out without their big man Yao.
On that note, the other teams pushing for the playoff spots Golden State and Denver have a pretty easy schedule through the rest of the month, Golden State playing Seattle tonight and Philadelphia on Friday, and Denver playing Seattle tonight and the Clippers on Friday. Going into the first week of March Golden State will have it pretty easy playing Portland (less Brandon Roy), Atlanta, Charlotte (less Gerald Wallace), Miami, and the toughest game will be finishing off the week with Orlando. Denver will have a grueling schedule as well, starting the month off with Houston, then playing Phoenix, San Antonio, and Utah. I anticipate Denver catching up sometime in March and Golden State to pass Houston in the next two weeks.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
5 Things That Won't Happen in the NBA This Season
A lot of things have gone down, there are a lot of high expectations this year. Everyone is now talking about what to expect in the second half of the season, and no one is really sure what's going to happen. Here's my call in 5 things that won't happen from now until the last game of the Finals.
1.) One team with 50 wins won't be in the playoffs
From the looks of it, it's either going to be the Golden State Warriors or the Denver Nuggets. Both teams have been playing tremendous basketball, and from the looks of it, 11 of the 30 teams in the league this season will win 50. The unfortunate thing is that 9 of those teams are in the Western Conference. With a 12 game winning streak Houston is beginning to look more and more like a shoe-in for the 7th seed in the West, while Denver and Golden State are both 33-22, tied for 8th, unfortunately only one of them can make it into the playoffs, so currently the Warriors hold 8th while the Nuggets are at 9th. I'm going to have to give an edge to the Nuggets, who, despite having lost 2, have the stronger roster. Granted that Taureen Green isn't exactly prime PG material, Camby has been healthy as has Kenyon Martin giving their defensive frontcourt a really solid boost. Golden State has been playing great ball but they've been hurting with Stephen Jackson and Andris Biedrins out. Jackson is set to return tomorrow for their game against Seattle, which is a game that they should win. Biedrins however will be out for a while having his appendix removed, leaving the Warriors thin in the middle. I don't think they'll lean more heavily on Chris Webber, Al Harrington's playing time will increase but also they may have to dip into reserves, playing Austin Croshere and Patrick O'Bryant. It'll be tight, but I'm gonna give the edge to Denver by a game. Warriors will win 50+, but they will not be in the playoffs, it's a travesty, but it happens.
2.) LA Lakers will not go all the way and win the championship this year, they will not even get to the Finals
As scary as the Lakers' roster is this year there are still a couple of things that I think they'll need to work out. Firstly, as well as Kobe is playing through his finger injury now, the fact of the matter is that it's pretty serious, doctors recommended surgery, but he wants the title. In going for it, he's going to be strained, and he may make it through the regular season, but I think it will hinder him in competitive 7 game series down the line. Secondly, the team is young, their in the mindset that they can win big later, with Derek Fisher (age 33) being the oldest player on the team, and the next being Kobe (age 28) everyone else can kind of afford to wait another year. As much of a fighter as Kobe is, everyone else on the team understands that it can afford to coast. Given that, they don't want it and aren't as desperate for a title as say a team like the Phoenix Suns (and I think Kevin Garnett wants it more). Finally, Bynum has to come back so they have yet to see how the triangle offense will really work out. Currently, it seems to work with Odom at the 4 and Gasol at the 5. However, upon Bynum's return Odom will move to the 3 and Gasol to the 4, as potent as that is, with someone of Odom's caliber being the 4th option scorer, I believe that Phil Jackson's triangle offense will require Odom to take more jump shots, something he's not very good at. We'll have to wait and see if this will affect the team play.
3.) Lebron James will not be seen in the NBA Finals
Unless he bought a ticket and is watching in the stands, Lebron will not carry his team to the Eastern Conference finals let alone the NBA finals. Even with his new and improved roster, the supporting cast around Lebron can only be called serviceably mediocre at best. The addition of Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Delonte West, and Wally Sczerbiak are improvements, but I don't think they're big enough to pull the Cavs ahead. It definitively sets them in contention for the 3rd or 4th spot in the East, but not much more. There are two teams that stand well above the Cavs in terms of desire and passion for the ring from the East. Firstly, with a revitalized Celtics, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen ,and Paul Pierce will not be denied, they just want it more. Secondly, the Pistons have the same core, and they realize that last year was a fluke. They won't be caught off-guard again. So unless it's as a fan in street clothes, Lebron will not be at the NBA Finals.
4.) More than half of the Eastern Conference will not reach a .500 record
Apparently that's the new measure of success in the East, can you win as many as you lose? Only 5 teams in the East currently hold a record over .500 (Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Toronto, and Cleveland). The sad thing is, that 3 teams that have less than 50% win record will make it to the playoffs.
5.) There will not be as many teams that lose 50 as teams that win 50
So far, only 9 teams seem on track to lose 50 games this season (counting Indiana and LA Clippers). What this means is that you either win big or lose big in the NBA. 4 of those 9 teams already have 40+ losses. We could always go on a limb and say that Miami will lose 50 before winning 10, but that's doubtful.
1.) One team with 50 wins won't be in the playoffs
From the looks of it, it's either going to be the Golden State Warriors or the Denver Nuggets. Both teams have been playing tremendous basketball, and from the looks of it, 11 of the 30 teams in the league this season will win 50. The unfortunate thing is that 9 of those teams are in the Western Conference. With a 12 game winning streak Houston is beginning to look more and more like a shoe-in for the 7th seed in the West, while Denver and Golden State are both 33-22, tied for 8th, unfortunately only one of them can make it into the playoffs, so currently the Warriors hold 8th while the Nuggets are at 9th. I'm going to have to give an edge to the Nuggets, who, despite having lost 2, have the stronger roster. Granted that Taureen Green isn't exactly prime PG material, Camby has been healthy as has Kenyon Martin giving their defensive frontcourt a really solid boost. Golden State has been playing great ball but they've been hurting with Stephen Jackson and Andris Biedrins out. Jackson is set to return tomorrow for their game against Seattle, which is a game that they should win. Biedrins however will be out for a while having his appendix removed, leaving the Warriors thin in the middle. I don't think they'll lean more heavily on Chris Webber, Al Harrington's playing time will increase but also they may have to dip into reserves, playing Austin Croshere and Patrick O'Bryant. It'll be tight, but I'm gonna give the edge to Denver by a game. Warriors will win 50+, but they will not be in the playoffs, it's a travesty, but it happens.
2.) LA Lakers will not go all the way and win the championship this year, they will not even get to the Finals
As scary as the Lakers' roster is this year there are still a couple of things that I think they'll need to work out. Firstly, as well as Kobe is playing through his finger injury now, the fact of the matter is that it's pretty serious, doctors recommended surgery, but he wants the title. In going for it, he's going to be strained, and he may make it through the regular season, but I think it will hinder him in competitive 7 game series down the line. Secondly, the team is young, their in the mindset that they can win big later, with Derek Fisher (age 33) being the oldest player on the team, and the next being Kobe (age 28) everyone else can kind of afford to wait another year. As much of a fighter as Kobe is, everyone else on the team understands that it can afford to coast. Given that, they don't want it and aren't as desperate for a title as say a team like the Phoenix Suns (and I think Kevin Garnett wants it more). Finally, Bynum has to come back so they have yet to see how the triangle offense will really work out. Currently, it seems to work with Odom at the 4 and Gasol at the 5. However, upon Bynum's return Odom will move to the 3 and Gasol to the 4, as potent as that is, with someone of Odom's caliber being the 4th option scorer, I believe that Phil Jackson's triangle offense will require Odom to take more jump shots, something he's not very good at. We'll have to wait and see if this will affect the team play.
3.) Lebron James will not be seen in the NBA Finals
Unless he bought a ticket and is watching in the stands, Lebron will not carry his team to the Eastern Conference finals let alone the NBA finals. Even with his new and improved roster, the supporting cast around Lebron can only be called serviceably mediocre at best. The addition of Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Delonte West, and Wally Sczerbiak are improvements, but I don't think they're big enough to pull the Cavs ahead. It definitively sets them in contention for the 3rd or 4th spot in the East, but not much more. There are two teams that stand well above the Cavs in terms of desire and passion for the ring from the East. Firstly, with a revitalized Celtics, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen ,and Paul Pierce will not be denied, they just want it more. Secondly, the Pistons have the same core, and they realize that last year was a fluke. They won't be caught off-guard again. So unless it's as a fan in street clothes, Lebron will not be at the NBA Finals.
4.) More than half of the Eastern Conference will not reach a .500 record
Apparently that's the new measure of success in the East, can you win as many as you lose? Only 5 teams in the East currently hold a record over .500 (Boston, Detroit, Orlando, Toronto, and Cleveland). The sad thing is, that 3 teams that have less than 50% win record will make it to the playoffs.
5.) There will not be as many teams that lose 50 as teams that win 50
So far, only 9 teams seem on track to lose 50 games this season (counting Indiana and LA Clippers). What this means is that you either win big or lose big in the NBA. 4 of those 9 teams already have 40+ losses. We could always go on a limb and say that Miami will lose 50 before winning 10, but that's doubtful.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
