My All-Star Game Predictions

So basically all the "official" All-Star Game events are pretty much set, well, at least the big ones, those being the dunk contest, three-point contest, skills challenge, rookie-sophomore game, and the actual All-Star Game after which the weekend is named.  Now that we know how everything is going down, it's fair to start making some predictions.  This is just for fun, so let's get to it.

Foot Locker 3-Point Shootout

Participants:

Rashard Lewis (SF/PF, Orlando Magic)

Jason Kapono (SG/SF, Toronto Raptors)

Danny Granger (SG/SF, Indiana Pacers)

Roger Mason (PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs)

Daequan Cook (SG, Miami Heat)

Mike Bibby (PG, Atlanta Hawks)

My first reaction to this was; Daequan Cook?  My second was; there sure isn't much representation of the Western Conference.  I wouldn't mind seeing like Peja or someone like that in this.  A lot of people say Rudy Fernandez, but he's a rookie, and he's already in two events.  Not sure who decides this, but seriously, Daequan Cook?  Ok, he's making 2.3 out of 5.7 per game (41%) which is what Mike Bibby shoots, but surely you can find someone better than Daequan Cook...  My recommendations include and are not limited to; Kevin Martin (2.2/5.3, 41.2%), Troy Murphy (2.0/4.8, 42%), Steve Blake (I know he's injured, but still, 2.1/4.9, 43.4%), Peja Stojakovic (2.6/6.2, 41%), Ben Gordon (2.2/5.3, 41%).  That's just based on the arbitrary standard (which it seems like the players were picked from) of players making more than 2 3pts a game and shooting over 40% from downtown, pick five and throw in Jason Kapono, the reigning champ, and you have the 3 point contest.  There's also been a lot of local support (Bay Area) for Anthony Morrow, and how now he'll go crazy because he was jilted from the All-Star weekend.  Ok, I'm done.

For those of you unfamiliar with what this is, there are five ball carts placed around the the point arc.  Each cart has 4 regular balls plus 1 money (different colored) ball.  Point of the contest is simple, score as many points as you can shooting 3 pointers.  Each regular ball counts for 1 and each money ball counts for 2.  You have 1 minute, starting from the cart at the left corner, and make as many as you can, moving from left to right, finishing with the cart at the right corner.

All of the above mentioned are great in game shooters, but that might mean they're used to taking leaners or crazy shots or something.  The argument goes though, that if they can make those shots, they should be able to make a series of open uncontested 3s.  Ok... Except, they're timed.   I think I've heard somewhere that Rashard Lewis has a pretty slow release, that might be tough.  Doesn't matter though, because Jason Kapono was designed to shoot uncontested 3s from ball racks in a short amount of time.  Now if you followed the link, it doesn't show all of the first two carts, but it can be presumed that he makes all of them, and only misses the first ball in the last cart.  He tied the record for the 3 pt contest of 25, and I don't see any one of those people beating him out.  You hear them saying that they want to see Ray Allen or Michael Redd in this thing against Kapono, me too.  Granted, I'd rather have Rashard Lewis or Danny Granger being my "3pt specialist" but that's more because a.) they're better in game, b.) they can do something other than shoot threes.  However, this isn't an in-game situation.  3peat.

Projected Winner: Jason Kapono

Playstation Skills Challenge

Participants:

Derrick Rose (PG, Chicago Bulls)

Tony Parker (PG, San Antonio Spurs)

Devin Harris (PG, New Jersey Nets)

Unknown

They haven't announced a replacement yet for Jameer Nelson, and who will replace him in this challenge.  Maybe they'll bring back the reinging champ and record holder Deron Williams, though I don't know that that's likely.  Hard to say who they'd pick, maybe bring in Steve Nash?  I think last year was Deron Williams, Dwayne Wade (the then reigning champ), Jason Kidd, and Chris Paul.  The year before was Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, Steve Nash (the reigning champ from 2005), and Chris Paul.  In 2005 Steve Nash won out over Luke Ridnour, Gilbert Arenas, and Earl Boykins.  In 2004, before Playstation started sponsoring the Skills Challenge, Baron Davis won out against Earl Boykins, Derek Fisher, and Stephon Marbury.  Tony Parker has appeared in Skills Challenge before, but was embarrassed in 2003 against Marbury, Kidd, and Gary Payton.

I'm not very good at explaining what you have to do, so you guys can look up what specifically each player has to do in the Skills Challenge.

The fourth player here is going to be the x-factor.  What killed Tony Parker during his last try at this challenge was really the 20 ft jumper at the top of the key, however he's improved a lot.  The thing about Rose, Parker, and Harris, is that they're all really, really fast, so I imagine that they'd all do well.  However given that, Harris and Parker will not have participated in any event, whereas Rose will already have played in the Rookie-Sophomore challenge.  Maybe that's what makes the difference.  As you can imagine, this is more a test of perfection than of sheer speed, so whoever makes the fewest number of mistakes will be the winner.  That being said, I think Rose brings the most complete skill-set to the arena.  Not saying he's better than everyone else, just saying that he has all the components to make this work.

Projected Winner: Derrick Rose

Sprite Slam Dunk Contest

Participants

Dwight Howard (C, Orlando Magic)

Nate Robinson (PG/SG, New York Knicks)

Rudy Gay (SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies)

Rudy Fernandez (SG/SF, Portland Trailblazers)

I've been kind of disenchanted with the Slam Dunk contest, but this is arguably the second-biggest event of the weekend.  I'm personally not a fan of the fans voting for the winner, but hey, what can you do about it?  I also wasn't particularly impressed with the selection for this year.  Dwight Howard and Nate Robinson are kind of the novelty big-man and small-man (respectively) participants, that, and Dwight Howard is kind of the reigning champ.  Nate Robinson has already been in the Slam Dunk contest twice, once in 2006 beating out Andre Iguodala with his dunk over Spudd Webb, and then again in 2007 to defend his title, where he got upstaged by Gerald Green.  Rudy Gay, honestly wasn't that impressive last year, but it might've just been because Dwight Howard sort of stole the stage, from everyone.  Rudy Fernandez was a fan vote in, though I can't say they had a whole lot to choose from, the choice being Fernandez, Joe Alexander from the Bucks, and Russell Westbrook from the Thunder.

Now for those of you that don't know what happens in the Slam Dunk Contest, each player gets 2 minutes to perform a dunk of his choice.  There are unlimited number of attempts, you just have to get a dunk off in 2 minutes.  There are two rounds of these which are scored by judges (usually former NBA greats such as Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson) on scale of 1 to 10, 1 being utter trash and 10 being unbelieveable.  Then the two players with the highest scores advance to the final round where they are both allotted two more dunks, after which, the fans text in their pick for the Slam Dunk champ.  This whole fans picking the champ thing started last year, and I can't say I'm a fan of it, but oh well.  I generally don't vote, because I don't have a texting plan and I think it's a waste of $0.20.

Hm.... hard to pick this year, especially because in the Slam Dunk contest you never know what's going to happen.  Some people might be sleeping on Rudy Fernandez, I wasn't overly impressed with the pick, but it happened this year, and maybe I'm wrong.  I'm gonna give it to Dwight again this year, because I think he's probably the most creative out of them.  Unless Gay comes out with something new, and I think we've seen enough of how high Nate Robinson can jump, and honestly, because of that, he can't do a whole lot.  Fernandez is kind of the x-factor as the only dunks people ever play of him is him dunking on Howard in the Olympics and a reverse alley-oop he got from Sergio Rodruiguez, in game.  All-in-all I'm just hoping for a good show, something a little more climactic than Fred Jones winning off a layup because Jason Richardson misses a dunk.

Projected Winner: Dwight Howard

Rookie-Sophomore Challenge

Projected Starters	Rookies	Sophomores
PG	Derrick Rose	Rodney Stuckey
SG	OJ Mayo	Wilson Chandler
SF	Rudy Fernandez	Kevin Durant
PF	Michael Beasley	Thaddeus Young
C	Greg Oden	Al Horford

As a note, these are my projected starters, whoever ends up coaching this game might end up doing something completely different.

 

Reserves	Rookies	Sophomores
Guards	Russell Westbrook Eric Gordon	Aaron Brooks
Forwards		Jeff Green Al Thornton
Centers	Marc Gasol Brook Lopez	Luis Scola

First thing you notice is that the rookies don't have any forwards and the sophomores don't really have a true center.  I do a slightly more thorough breakdown of it in my previous post, so I won't go into too much detail here.  I think you'll probably see the PF slot manned by Beasley and Gasol pretty frequently, maybe even Lopez.  I also wouldn't be surprised if the sophomores run small with a frontcourt of some combination of Young, Green, and Thornton.  Ultimately though, I think the sophomores just have more firepower than the rookies, they don't have anyone that is both big enough and fast enough to stay with Kevin Durant.  

Projected Winner: Sophomores

All-Star Game

Starters	East	West
PG	Allen Iverson	Chris Paul
SG	Dwayne Wade	Kobe Bryant
SF	LeBron James	Amar’e Stoudemire
PF	Kevin Garnett	Tim Duncan
C	Dwight Howard	Yao Ming

 

Reserves	East	West
Guards	Devin Harris Joe Johnson Ray Allen	Chauncey Billups Brandon Roy Tony Parker
Forwards	Paul Pierce Danny Granger Rashard Lewis	Dirk Nowitzki Pau Gasol David West
Centers	Chris Bosh	Shaquille O’Neal

 Interesting to note that while the East only has one true center and 1 center eligible PF, the West has 2 true centers and 3 center eligible PFs.  On that note, the West also doesn't have any small forwards.  I don't really expect a whole lot in terms of set plays or defenses in this game, but size will be an issue that the East has to deal with, and perimeter defense needs to be a priority of the West.  I'm gonna go with the East just because their roster is more balanced.  If they included Kevin Durant instead of David West, they wouldn't have this problem.

Projected Winner: East

Bad Shoulders Shutting Down Players

Shoulder injuries seem to be the thing this year.  

On that note, let's look at the two teams who have most recently been affected; the Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic.

It was recently reported that Elton Brand will undergo season ending surgery to repair a torn right labrum in his shoulder.  Brand, the major offseason acquisition of a young playoff team that took a loaded Detroit to 6 games, had struggled all season to really fit into the system of the younger team, it showed both in the Sixers' win-loss column: 23-24, as well as his own stats: 13.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.6 bpg on 44.7% FG shooting and 67.6% FT shooting.  As a sort of context on the sort of season he's having, these are career lows in points, assists, FG%, and FT%.  Additionally, he's having a career low number of free throws attemtped per game as well (he's only getting to the line 3.7 times per game, his career average is 6.4).  To say it's been disappointing would be something of an understatement, we're talking about a career 20-10 guy.  Ok, so maybe he's been injured a lot, I mean, he's already missed 18 of the 47 games that the team has played already, but honestly he just doesn't fit the team.  Need evidence?  The Sixers are 10-9 when he's been out, meaning they've been 13-16 when he's in.  While Brand was out the Sixers also managed to go on a nice little 7 game winning streak, including wins over Houston, Portland, and San Antonio.  Longest streak while he was in; a three game streak against Toronto, Indiana, and Oklahoma City.  

Let me get this straight first, I'm not writing this piece to knock on Brand, but honestly, his addition in the off-season hasn't made this team better as expected.  Sure, maybe people (including myself) had overhyped this team, but overall the whole team hasn't really been itself with Brand there.  This is a running team, one that excels in transition, and Brand just isn't that kind of player.  Now that Brand is shutting it down for the season, it's hard to say that Philadelphia GM Ed Stefanski didn't just jump at a big name and pull the trigger without doing enough research.  Hindsight I suppose is always 20/20, and certainly Brand was expected to be the inside offensive prescence that the 76ers seemed to lack in their playoff berth last season.  The 76ers are still young and definitely can still move forward, but the question is, was Brand worth the money?  I'd say in another system sure, but in the 76ers system?  Probably not.  

I'm sure Ed Stefanski wants to save some face, but honestly, I have a proposal, that I would think about long and hard.  It's quick, it's easy, it's simple; Elton Brand for Amar'e Stoudemire.  Since the Suns have begun to slow down their offense and siphon all of it through Shaq, the core of D'Antoni's premier run-and-gun offense (Steve Nash and Amar'e Stoudemire) have just looked lost on offense.  They don't know what's going on, Porter doesn't know what's going on, and Shaq is just yelling at everyone, because it's always everyone except Shaq's fault.  Premier Suns blogger Ben York suggests that perhaps Amar'e is the wrong foundation for the Suns to build around.  Granted, I think Brand's history of injury, added to the fact that he's done for the season (which is barely halfway through), kind of puts a damper in my idea.  Nonetheless, it makes sense.  Amar'e is a run-and-gun big, the inside run-and-gun presence that would fit perfectly with the 76ers' most comfortable style of play.  Brand on the otherhand, is better suited for a half-court set (his career bests coming from when he was playing for Mike Dunleavy Sr., the half-court tyrant), and would be a major inside presence that I think could play off of Shaq.  Of course, that's just me speculating, but it just looks like it makes sense.  Only problem, for this to work, Suns are basically going to have to aim for next year, and hope Shaq has another season left.

Moving south to Disney World, as you've no doubt heard, Jameer Nelson has gone down also with a torn right labrum.  While he's thinking about coming back this season, Otis Smith has already addressed the issue by trading for Tyronne Lue.  Ben Q from Third Quarter Collapse, has surmised that this probably means Nelson is shutting down for the season.  I think there was a lot of speculation as to what the Magic were going to do, and therefore, a lot of hype, so needless to say, everyone was a little disappointed when it was only Tyronne Lue.  Lue is experienced, but I don't really see him as much beyond a backup for Anthony Johnson, who, is the backup for Jameer Nelson.  Everyone was getting a little crazy, throwing up names like Leandro Barbosa, Earl Watson, Jamaal Tinsley, Stephon Marbury, etc...  Others did their research and provided the names of several D-Leaguers that could make an impact, most noteably Will Conroy.  

However, as Ben Q states, and as I can now see, after taking a quick step back, Tyronne Lue for Keith Bogans and cash makes a little bit of sense.  Lue, like Bogans is expiring, and provides depth at an already thin PG position (especially since Mike Wilks went down for the season).  No one's really sure whether or not Hedo Turkoglu will opt out or exercise his player option, but he's definitely been an integral part in the success of the Magic in the past two seasons.  It's hard to say whether or not Turk will try to land a bigger contract, as he's turning 30 and likely will want more security, which may be entirely out of the reach of the Magic's budget, with Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson tied up for long term.  I've always been kind of a proponent of trading Turkoglu away for a solid rebounding PF, maybe a bigger name or someone with more upside or something, but I wouldn't be surprised if Ben Q is right in that resigning Hedo is a major priority this season.  Names of bigs I've tossed around have been wide and varied, ranging from David Lee to Lamar Odom.  

Regardless, I think it's safe to say that any hopes for the Finals for the Magic have been kind of dashed.  It's still possible, as anything in this league is, but it'll be hard without Nelson.  Should he shut down now, he has a better chance of making it back early next season, should he rehab and then get surgery, recovery could linger well into the start of next season.  Hard to say...  The team definitely looks solid for years to come, and still just one or two pieces away from eliteness I think, but we'll see.  

My Ideal Mike D'Antoni Team

Skeets brought this up a while ago on the Basketball Jones, I'm too lazy to find which one right now, so no link, sorry.  Anyways, regardless, here's my take.  For D'Antoni's 7 seconds-or-less offense to be effective and sustainable even through an extended series, you need three things in your players; three-point shooting, athleticism, a halfway-decent two-way game.  I think a squad of athletic forwards might do the trick quite nicely.

Here's my take:

PG - LeBron James, Lamar Odom

SG - Caron Butler, Tayshaun Prince

SF - Rashard Lewis, Kevin Durant, Ron Artest

PF - Josh Smith, Al Harrington, Carmelo Anthony

C - Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh

Firstly, you have no one shorter than 6-7 on the roster (Artest and Butler) which gives you a lot of length to bother the opponent.  While not everyone is inclined to play defense, nobody on there is necessarily a defensive liability.  Secondly, you get two players that can easily defend upwards of 4 different positions in Artest and Prince.  They're long enough to bother most conventional lineups, fast enough to keep up with smaller teams, and athletic enough to consistently increase the pace of any game they're playing.

Why David West Should Not Be An All-Star

I've been meaning to get around to this post, but kind of have been putting it off.  However, with the All-Star Game only a week away, I'm going to finish my gripe about the picks.  As a quick update on the Eastern Conference though, with Jameer Nelson out extensively with a torn right labrum, so that opens another roster spot for the game.  The three top contenders are arguably Ray Allen, Mo Williams, or David Lee.  Personally, I'd go with Ray Allen over the other two, my reasons stay the same.  

Anyways, onwards to what this post is supposed to be about.  The Western Conference All-Stars are as follows:

Starters:

PG - Chris Paul

SG - Kobe Bryant

SF - Amar'e Stoudemire

PF - Tim Duncan

C - Yao Ming

Reserves:

Guards - Chauncey Billups, Brandon Roy, Tony Parker

Forwards - Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, David West

Centers - Shaquille O'Neal

Now remember, the fans voted the starters (though Stern probably did some tampering to get Chris Paul in over Tracy McGrady, not to say I'm unhappy with that), the coaches voted for the remaining players.  For the most part I can't disagree with these picks, the Lakers have been too good for the second best Laker in Gasol to not make it, from there, there's a big enough drop off to not include any other Lakers.  There hasn't been a player with a bigger impact on a team than Billups on the Nuggets, Brandon Roy has proven himself again and again to be the floor leader of a young Blazers squad, Shaq is having a career season of sorts, Dirk is playing out of his mind.  Which leaves us with the two wildcards, Tony Parker and David West.  Honestly, I don't think I can make a stronger case for any other guard in the Western Conference.  While Parker had that high ankle sprain he has also been playing exceptional basketball.  Manu, well Manu is coming off of ankle surgery and missed most of the season thusfar.  Granted it's a wildcard slot, so the position doesn't matter.  

Ultimately, my main gripe with David West isn't necessarily that he's bad, it's just that there are other players that are better.  No one really questions Tony Parker being in there, generally the two points of biggest contention are Shaq and West.  However, I don't think it's that big of a stretch for Shaq especially, first, because it's Shaq, second it's in Phoenix, third, Shaq's actually playing well.  While he's been rested on a number of back-to-backs, there really haven't been THAT many of them.  If you want a relative comparison, Shaq's missed 7 games because of the resting on back-to-backs, Tony Parker has missed 10 from his high ankle sprain and 1 from Greg Popovich being Greg Popovich, David West missed 5 games from a sore back, Carmelo Anthony has missed 15 from various injuries through the season.  So Shaq, while he's missed a couple of games, hasn't really missed that many.  I think missing too many games in the season is what disqualified Melo and Manu from All-Star consideration.  

Now, if I could only take two of Tony Parker, Shaquille O'Neal, and David West, I would still choose Parker and Shaq, simply because they make a bigger impact on their team.  First, the Suns offense is based entirely around Shaq now, as much as you may or may not like it, that's what it is.  The Suns are 2-5 when Shaq doesn't play, that plus the ASG being Phoenix gives Shaq the edge. So now we're once again down to Parker and West.  Parker has missed more games, and the Spurs have maintained an 8-3 record when he was out, so you could argue that he doesn't add a whole lot to the team, though I would say that's just more George Hill and Roger Mason stepping up.   Besides, the Hornets have been 4-1 when West was out.  I think in this case, the better record of the Spurs is what edges Parker ahead, but let's break down the numbers.

2008-2009	Tony Parker	David West
Points per game (PPG)	20.7	19.9
Rebounds per game (RPG)	2.8	7.4
Assists per game (APG)	6.6	1.9
Steals per game (SPG)	0.9	0.7
Blocks per game (BPG)	0.1	1.0
Turnovers per game (TO)	2.6	2.0
Field goal percentage (FG%)	50.0%	46.6%
Free throw percentage (FT%)	79.0%	89.7%
Games played	38	40

For comparing a PG to a PF the stats are pretty comparable.  However, my final knock against David West, is that he can't carry his team.  The main crux of this being exhibited on Monday's game against Portland, where the Hornets were outscored 38-15 in the 4th quarter after Chris Paul went down with a groin injury, causing the Hornets to fall to the Blazers 97-89.  This was after the Hornets entered the 4th quarter looking the game was comfortably in hand, leading 74-59.  David West, arguably the second best player on the team, just couldn't muster the floor leadership to carry the team through.  Don't get me wrong, I think West is putting up impressive numbers, but I just think that there are players more deserving of the spot than him, there's no reason New Orleans, 5th in Western Conference standings needs 2 All-Stars in the game when Denver (3rd) and Portland (4th) only have one, if you want to go the, "Well New Orleans is a good team" route.  I think the David West vote just fell because he was there last year.

Two players I think should've made it without a doubt over West are Al Jefferson from the Minnesota Timberwolves or Kevin Durant from the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Firstly, while OKC and the T'Wolves have both been struggling teams, their gameplay has definitely improved, and a large part of that is due to the stellar play of these two young stars.  If we break it down further, here's what we get:

2008-2009	Kevin Durant	Al Jefferson
Points per game (PPG)	25.0	22.9
Rebounds per game (RPG)	6.6	10.7
Assists per game (APG)	2.7	1.5
Steals per game (SPG)	1.2	0.7
Blocks per game (BPG)	0.8	1.7
Turnovers per game (TO)	3.2	1.8
3 pointers made (3PTM)	1.3	0.0
Field goal percentage (FG%)	47.6%	49.7%
Free throw percentage (FT%)	86.0%	74.6%
Games played	47	47

I don't think you can look at these stats and say that they're performing worse than David West.  Some people might say "but the Hornets are much better than the T'Wolves and Thunder" which is true, which makes the case for Gasol being there, but then why not Melo?  "He's missed too many games.", ok well, what about Nene?  What about LaMarcus Aldridge?  You see where I'm going here.  I don't really care that this is the Western Conference, the more "competitive" conference, because saying that these two shouldn't be in here is the same as saying Devin Harris and Danny Granger shouldn't be All-Stars because New Jersey and Indiana both suck.  Granted, it's questionable whether or not you can argue a case for both of them in over West and one of Shaq or Parker, but definitely at least one of them should be in over David West.

BTW, for those wondering, here are the stats for everyone else in the ASG for the West, just so you know how hard this decision is:

The Starters:

2008-2009	Chris Paul	Kobe Bryant	Amar’e Stoudemire	Tim Duncan	Yao Ming
PPG	21.5	27.4	21.2	20.6	19.8
RPG	5.4	5.5	8.1	10.4	9.5
APG	10.9	5.1	2.1	3.7	1.7
SPG	2.8	1.3	1.0	0.5	0.4
BPG	0.2	0.4	1.1	1.8	1.6
TO	3.1	2.7	2.9	2.2	3.2
FG%	49.9%	48.0%	53.7%	52.0%	54.6%
FT%	86.4%	86.8%	83.2%	68.9%	86.6%
GP	45	47	46	47	46

The Reserves:

2008-2009	Chauncey Billups	Brandon Roy	Dirk Nowitzki	Pau Gasol	Shaquille O’Neal
PPG	18.3	22.2	25.9	17.9	17.9
RPG	2.6	4.6	8.3	9.1	9.0
APG	6.4	5.1	2.4	3.4	1.7
SPG	1.4	1.2	0.7	0.4	0.4
BPG	0.3	0.4	0.7	0.9	1.6
TO	2.2	1.9	2.0	1.9	2.2
FG%	41.2%	46.8%	47.9%	55.6%	58.9%
FT%	81.5%	81.9%	91.5%	79.2%	62.3%
GP	46	43	46	46	39

You already have all the stats for the wildcards.  Another name I'd throw out there might be Jason Terry, who is averaging 20.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.4 spg, and 2.2 threes shooting 46.9% from the field, 87.2% from the line, and 36.7% from downtown (sorry I didn't include 3pt shooting stats in the above tables).  However, if you're going to pick a second player from a team, I suppose you'd pick it from the better team.  I would guess coaches felt that they gave the Mavs (currently 7th in the Western Conference) their due by selecting Dirk.  Besides, I'd still take Durant or Jefferson over Terry, and one of those three over West.

Oden: Thanks for pointing out.  My pick is Durant, mainly because there are no SFs on the West roster.