So I posted my 2008-2009 playoff predictions for the Eastern Conference, and call me audacious if you will, but until a major move comes along or someone breaks their knees in training camp, then version 1.0 remains the version that I will hold to. As implicitly promised, since I did it for the Eastern Conference, here is my call for the Western Conference.
1.) Los Angeles Lakers
No surprise here, the incumbent Western Conference champions to return to the number 1 slot. It may take Bynum a while to get back into game shape but when he does this is a fairly scary roster. Granted it's already scary when you have the best player in the NBA on your team, but tack onto that a frontcourt made up of a 20 year old 7 footer with massive upside and arguably the best player from Spain (who also happens to be 7 feet tall) and you have a scary roster. Of course, the big if, is whether or not Andrew Bynum does come back 100%. However, look for Pau Gasol to slide over to the PF position and try to find his midrange 10-15 jumper again. With Kobe Bryant at the center of the offense and Derrick Fisher sitting at the wings jacking up threes, it's really hard to think of a way to stop this team, especially with the excellent team passing that this team has. This is the ideal roster for Phil Jackson's triangle offense, with one slight kink; they need an SF that can play defense, but also one that can shoot. Currently the slew of candidates don't look very promising. Either Vladamir Radmonivic needs to learn to play defense or Trevor Ariza or Lamar Odom have to develop a jump shot. The easiest solution would be to trade Lamar Odom for someone that fits the bill, honestly I think the best fit would be either Bruce Bowen or Tayshaun Prince, however I'd settle for Caron Butler or Gerald Wallace as well. I've been told that Phil Jackson may want to keep Odom and try out a massive frontcourt with Odom at the SF position, enabling the Lakers to essentially clog the entier baseline. If I were to run the Lakers lineup I'd start Ariza and move Odom as a 6th man off the bench behind Gasol, they need his rebounding more, and that's where he'd be most effective, if he could run the offense for the second squad, I see him thriving.
2.) New Orleans Hornets
They were the feel good NBA story of the year last season, with Chris Paul at the helm it seemed like nothing could go wrong. Of course, depth is always an issue with this squad, however you can't get a starting five better than Paul, Morris Peterson, Peja Stojakovic, David West, and Tyson Chandler. Granted Peja is reaching an older age, but they just need him to heave those threes with abandon when Paul collapses the defense. West is still athletic and explosive and has that killer mid range jumper, and Tyson Chandler is just a monster down low gobbling up everything off the glass. Jannero Pargo needs to develop a more consistent game but has shown that he's somewhat reliable as a backup and the acquisition of James Posey makes them very tenacious defensively off the bench. I think they might have overpaid for him a little, but hey, maybe he's worth it, he's got a ring with Miami and another with most recently Boston, where he was heralded as the difference maker. My primary concern is with the depth in their frontcourt, Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely aren't exactly premier reserve big men and Hornets have shown that they struggle a lot when David West is out of the game. Hopefully they can solve that somehow. Oh yes, and we can't forget that they still have Mike James.
3.) San Antonio Spurs
Ok, so they're old. The biggest thing they need to work on is conserving Manu Ginobili's health and energy. The 7 game series with New Orleans killed them leaving (at least Manu) with almost nothing going into the series against the Lakers. However, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan still I consider regular and consistent contributors. I like the addition of Roger Mason, when he did get playing time (because both Gilbert Arenas and Antonio Daniels were injured) he put up some very good numbers. He's athletic and he can score, big improvement over Jacque Vaughn. I've heard murmurings of trying to get JR Smith and I think that if any one can whip him into shape it'd be Greg Popovich, I think Smith would have a lot of upside, but of course, that's all heresay. Resigning Kurt Thomas was a solid move and George Hill looks to be a potentially solid addition as a rookie. The core is pretty much the same with Bruce Bown, Fabricio Oberto, and company staying on, I'd look for something of a Michael Finley replacement (JR Smith!) but all in all, another solid year from the most solid club in the league. Pity they couldn't convince Tiago Splitter to join ranks, that, would've been crazy. Just one more shot Robert Horry, that's all we're asking for.
4.) Utah Jazz
They're squad is solid, I think Andrei Kirilenko is learning that he doesn't have to be the goto guy on offense to produce. I'm a little alarmed at how Carlos Boozer sort of faded during the playoffs, but with his play, I think he needs to adapt to how the refs call the games nowadays a little more, and he'll be fine. Solid job of extending Deron Williams on the part of Utah's front office, and I think given the scoring options here, Brevin Knight would be a serviceable backup. I expect Ronnie Brewer and Paul Milsap to continue to grow and improve, and as usual Kyle Korver is there as the perimeter threat, it'd help if they could add another one, but they have Mehmet Okur as well, and their rookie, Koufa Kosta, who while a little on the slow side is said to absorb contact well and by all reports be a younger Okur. Sloan is as always the pick and roll master and he runs a solid club, even if they don't win anything they're always top 5 in the West for the next few years in my opinion. Solid, young club that just looks to keep getting better and better.
5.) Houston Rockets
I think everyone is hoping that Rafer Alston's emergence after Yao's injury was not a fluke. Look for Luis Scola to continue to develop, and the 40 point game Donte Green laid out at Summer League leaves Houston fans hopeful. There's a lot going on for them and health will always be the perennial issue and the plague of the Houston Rockets, too much rides on the back and frail feet of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Additionally, the fact that Shane Battier has to undergo surgery over the offseason is not great news either, hopefully he can recover 100% for next season. All in all a solid club, just hoping for the All-Stars to stay healthy and the role-players to step it up. They still need a legitimate third option to emerge, maybe Brent Barry will get a lot more playing time now, but their glut of guards still kind of confuses me, between Barry they also have to split time with Alston, McGrady, Aaron Brooks, Luther Head, and Bobby Jackson. My call is Brooks goes to the D-League or becomes something of a permanent bench warmer. I don't dislike the team, but relying on both McGrady and Yao to have healthy seasons is really asking for a lot.
6.) Portland Trailblazers
I'm sure a lot of people are looking at me funny for putting the Blazers this high, and maybe I am crazy for doing so. However, I love this how this squad looks and honestly I think it only gets better. Let's just look at this upcoming season though. Last season when Greg Oden had to get season ending microfracture surgery on his knee before the season even started, everyone thought it was over, boy did the Blazers prove us wrong. Spearheaded by Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge the Blazers put together an impressive 41-41 season, having all of their role players step up during critical times to do their part. One major factor was the emergence of Travis Outlaw off the bench. The team is versatile, talented, and very, very deep. At the point they have Summer League MVP Jerryd Bayless, granted Bayless is more of a pentrator and scorer, it works out pretty well with Brandon Roy distributing the ball. When Roy comes off, we can put serviceable Steve Blake in with Spanish hot shot Rudy Fernadez. Granted they're young and unproven, but I like the frontcourt of Oden and Aldridge a lot more than Bynum and Gasol. The big what if, is whether or not Oden recovers as well as Amare Stoudamire did from his surgery. Rumors have Oden beefing up, being bigger than even Dwight Howard.
7.) Phoenix Suns
Weren't these the guys that have been favored to win it by a decent crew for like the past 3 years? Yes, but I'm again not sold on how well this team does. Sure they have one of the best point guards in the game in Steve Nash, they have one of the best big men in Amare Stoudamire, but, they also are getting old, and their team just doesn't fit any mold to win them anything. Shaquille O'Neal is 36 going on 37 as is Grant Hill. Too much rests on Grant Hill being 100% healthy and Boris Diaw actually trying for Phoenix to really be any sort of contender. Matt Barnes is a good add, something of an upgrade from Gordan Giricek, and they still have Brazilian speed demon Leandro Barbosa, with added defensive size in Robin Lopez, I don't really see them really winning anything. Grant Hill is too fragile to have so much going on him, the problem is, that the Suns need him, he was supposed to be the Marion replacement, but, his body failed him, both him and the Suns. I hope Shaq isn't overconfident again this year, that would really ruin their chances.
8.) Dallas Mavericks
Officially the trade has become Jason Kidd for Devin Harris and a mid-level exception. I don't know that Diop is worth that much, but I guess the Mavs are a little deseperate for some kind of defensive legitimacy in the low post. Honestly though, even with Kidd at the helm I don't see this squad being any better than it was in its loss to Miami and it's two first round playoff exits over the past 3 seasons. Unless Brandon Bass develops into some kind of interior monster Dallas is still just a team of perimeter shooters with Erick Dampier in the middle. I hear Rick Carlisle wants to base the offense more around Jason Kidd, which is good and all, but he's 35, he's good even at 35, but he's 35 nonetheless. Dirk Nowitzki has shown that he's not an interior player and despite the number of rebounds he grabs he's not a presence in the low post, he's content to jack up shots with Jason Terry and Josh Howard. Too many redundant players, too many shooters, not enough people inside to help out Kidd and Dampier. To me they're kind of caught in this uncomfortable limbo, they're too perimeter based to play a halfcourt set, but they're too big to play fast. Unless Nowitzki suddenly gets to be as fast as Kirilenko on the break, I don't see them being much more than first round exits, it's just embarrassing to me because Dirk gets so worked up about it, I get embarrassed for him.
As usual there are those teams that are sort of on the bubble that people will be berating me about not being in there, well you guys are entitled to your opinions too. Those on the bubble for me are the Los Angeles Clippers, the Golden State Warriors, and the Denver Nuggets, in that order. The Clippers look like their better what with Baron Davis at the point, the emergence of Al Thornton as a legitimate offensive threat, the drafting of Eric Gordon, and the frontcourt of Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman. Honestly though, I'm not impressed, first round exit at best. Baron hasn't really shown any compunction to play, and outside of a club run by a coach like Don Nelson, I see him easily becoming a headcase again, he just wanted to go home, have a 5-6 year contract and make a lot of money. Furthermore, I'm not sold on the Kaman-Camby front court. Sure Baron can just chuck it up and one of them will get it, but I see Camby chucking flatfooted 15 footers all day, a shot which if reciprocated, I don't see Camby guarding, at least not with much gusto and effectiveness. All in all it's a squad of misfits that really don't care for the basketball, they'll do well, but I don't see them going far, nothing into the playoffs, especially not in the Western Conference. Golden State will need to adjust now that Monta Ellis is running the point, they'll still be the most fun team to watch, but without Baron Davis they have a lot to change, meaning, they get edged out once again. As for Denver, honestly, it's just a bad basketball atmosphere, no one cares, and no one seems inclined to, except for Marcus Camby, and he's gone.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Early Playoff Predictions v1.0: Eastern Conference
I know, I know, I know, the season hasn't even started yet and I'm already putting this up? I haven't seen, heard, nor smelled word of a major move in the near future (of course who saw Marcus Camby for nothing, or as I put it, less than Marcus Williams?) so I'll amend this in the event anything major comes up. I mean, thusfar moves I've seen are like a Brevin Knight for Jason Hart swap, which to me, was as epic as Taureen Green for Von Wafer (if you don't know who I'm talking about, that's my point exactly). So I'm going to come out and call my favorites and who I think is going to be good, well before EA ever does (with their releases of NBA Live 2009 and NBA 2k9). If you see these teams as being unfairly stacked when you get your copy of 2k9 then you'll know they read my blog, just kidding.
For now let's just start with the Eastern Conference:
1.) Boston Celtics
They've lost James Posey, they've lost PJ Brown, everyone is another year older. However, I feel that they've also had the time to get familiar with each other, feel each other out. I'm not overly impressed with the addition of Patrick O'Bryant, but who knows, maybe Kevin Garnett will somehow herd him into a weight room and get him in shape. All in all, the core of this team is the same, and I only really see room for improvement from Rajon Rondo, Glenn Davis, and Leon Powe. Resigning Eddie House and Tony Allen was a good move, which keeps their bench versatile. They don't have a real James Posey replacement yet, but I think they'll try to have Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine try to replace it, maybe they'll find someone worth picking up from free agency (bring back Ricky Davis! hehehe). All in all, the team that dominated the Eastern Conference and the NBA as a whole last season will continue to do so this season, again, major concern: health especially for Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, but it's not too bad. I still see them on the top, and a definite contender, I can easily see them repeating.
2.) Detroit Pistons
They're a perennial shoe-in, they're the Spurs of the East. However, there may be some major moves as the starting 5 have been here since the 2004 championship and they've been ousted in the Eastern Conference Finals every year ever since. Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace are showing their age and I think are the most likely to get moved (most likely Sheed) if anyone does. However, given their current configuration, I can't see them not winning. All in all, I'm not too impressed with their level of play given Flip Saunders's no double-teaming defensive strategy, which essentially is the kind of game that plays into the hands of someone like LeBron. However, I'll leave them up at the top as usual, because with the extra year I don't see them getting much rustier, Tayshaun Prince seems to be developing an offensive game to match his defensive tenacity, which I believe offsets any sign of age and wear on Antonio McDyess. Additionally, Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell really impressed a lot of people last season (myself included) with their high level of play, young big man Amir Johnson seems to have a lot of potential as well.
3.) Orlando Magic
This team I think can only get better. A lot of their loss to Detroit last year in the second round of the playoffs had to do with an cracked sternum that Dwight Howard sustained during the playoffs, and I think they have only improved their roster. Mickael Pietrus is by no means an All-Star addition, but "Air France" is an improvement (in my books) over Keith Bogans and Maurice Evans. I look for Dwight Howard to get a renewed sense of competition from the Olympics, and Hedo Turkoglu to polish his game a little more. Granted with the discovery that Turkoglu is All-Star material, Rashard Lewis has been somewhat relegated to a catch and shoot guy, I still think they can figure out an offense that involves Lewis more, he adds a lot of versatility to the team, and with Turkoglu and Lewis on the wings it gives the team a lot of flexibility by spreading the defense. If Dwight Howard can develop a couple more moves (right now I think he's like a giant Shawn Kemp) I think that Orlando should be included as contention material. Anthony Johnson is a solid backup, they just need Jameer Nelson to develop a more consistent game, maybe getting married will help him a little.
4.) Philadelphia 76ers
They've sort of been the talk of the town since they stole Elton Brand from the LA Clippers and their recent acquisition; Baron Davis. With Brand sliding into the starting PF slot in front of Reggie Evans, the 76ers added the one thing they lacked last year in the playoffs, instant offense in the frontcourt. When healthy Brand is easily a 20-10 threat every game. This will ease a lot of the offensive strain on Samuel Dalembert who I believe will flourish even more now that he can share the paint with an All-Star. This also adds leadership and veterancy in addition to the floor leader Andre Miller has become, and so long as the 76ers hold onto Andre Iguodala, they'll have one of the strongest teams in the league. Willie Green can rack it up easily from the perimeter, and add in the speed and athleticism of Thaddeus Young then they are a young and deadly team. Reggie Evans is a great hustle player, and while he's not a great starter I think will thrive off the bench as a backup to Brand. If the 76ers resign Louis Williams, he adds a lot of energy and explosiveness off the bench as well. All in all, a solid team now, also given the work ethic and the mentality of Elton Brand, I see him being a great locker room influence on all the younger players as well. The surprise 7th seed that took Detroit to 6 games just got a lot better, a heck of a lot better.
5.) Toronto Raptors
If a frontcourt of Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert looks scary, I think that one of Chris Bosh and Jermaine O'Neal is even more potent. The only reason I have them falling to 5 behind Philly is because I'm leery of Jermaine O'Neal's sustainability health-wise. The only way I see Toronto staying up here and having a run at the title is if O'Neal can stay healthy for like 62 games (about 75% of the regular season) and also for the post season as well. If not I see them being something akin to the Wizards, always someone injured, rather, always an All-Star injured. I see Jose Calderon really thriving now that he has full control of the offense, and with Bosh's ability to spread the floor with his range, O'Neal doesn't have to work quite as hard to create the offense, add on a slew of perimeter shooters in Anthony Parker, Jason Kapono, and Andrea Bargnani, it really stacks up. I also see a lot of upside for Jamario Moon. All in all, health remains the concern, but I like this team a lot now.
6.) Washington Wizards
Gilbert Arenas thinks that they're one of the top 5 teams in the NBA when they're healthy, maybe he's right, I personally don't buy it. This is a team that always looks good on paper but somehow always fails to meet expectations. I almost think I can count the number of times Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison took the floor together on my fingers over the past two seasons. I don't think it ever happened in the playoffs, maybe round 1 last season. They're good, but they're also pretty soft defensively. We have yet to see how well Arenas plays on his twice surgically repaired knee, and their defense has always been called into question. All in all, they are considered one of the softer defenses in the league, which, and I don't see that improving. Maybe health is a continual concern, but they've had no roster changes save for losing Roger Mason Jr to the Spurs, this team has been together for a while, and really haven't proven anything with it yet. Maybe things will be different this year, maybe they'll all be healthy again, I wouldn't hold my breath, because I told myself the same thing last season. Agent 0 wants a trophy to go with $111 million dollar contract, I don't think he's going to get one.
7.) Cleveland Cavaliers
While I can't really blame Mike Brown for how he runs his offense, a lot of the failure of the Cavs has been just that, how Mike Brown runs his offense. In short, his offensive set begins and ends with something like this; "Pass the ball to LeBron". With a talent like LeBron, I don't know that I'd do anything significantly different, however, given the talent surrounding LeBron (or lack thereof), it makes the Cavs very one-dimensional and easy to defend. It's not that the Cavs don't have a slew of weapons on the offense, it's just that teams always know where it's going to start, and can plug the offense there. That being said, Joe Smith on the post or Wally Sczerbiak and Daniel Gibson on the wings don't really inspire fear in me. One of my biggest criticisms of the Cavs roster is that all of their players can only do one thing, except for LeBron James and Zydraunas Ilgauskas, you have to sacrifice something for every player you put on the floor. Therefore, the roster keeps cylcing depending on the situations and the Cavs I feel can't get a whole lot of momentum going. You sacrifice offense when Eric Snow and Ben Wallace are on the floor, you sacrifice defense when you put Joe Smith in the game. Maybe LeBron needs to leave for a legitimate play set to be called, the only other option I see for Cleveland is to find someone legitimate to put next to LeBron, and no, Wally Sczerbiak is not legitimate. They need someone else to handle the ball to, someone else that can create on offense. Right now, they just have LeBron, and as good as he is and will be, that's just not enough.
8.) Miami Heat
While they may be far from being legitimate contenders again, I still see them being somewhat relevant in the Eastern Conference. With Wade coming back 100% I think they have a legitimate shot. Udonis Haslem is a solid player and I like the Dwayne Wade-Shawn Marion combo a lot more than I liked the Dwayne Wade-Shaquille O'Neal combo. They're a faster, more versatile team, we'll see how new head coach Eric Spolestra does in his first year, but he's got the talent to work with. A lot of it I think is going to fall with their two starting caliber rookies Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley, summer league isn't saying much but they showed promise there. If they can play to maybe about 3/4 the level of expectations I see the Heat regaining some legitimacy. Not sure what they'll do for their backup point guard, maybe Chris Quinn will come back, otherwise, not sure, the biggest problem will be the center, I'm not overly impressed with Mark Blount and I'm even more leery about Earl Barron, however, if the remaining starting 4, that is (in my opinion); Chalmers, Wade, Marion, and Beasley step it up, then I don't see it being a huge issue. In fact, maybe the Heat will play small and start Haslem as a center if the starting 4 work out well (that'd be interesting, I'd have a bad feeling abou it, but interesting nonetheless).
Those are my 8 Eastern Conference playoff bound teams based purely on speculation thusfar. Of course people might look at me and ask "What about such and such a team?" On the bubble I'm going to put Miluakee, Atlanta, and Chicago, in that order. While the Miluakee Bucks made a huge upgrade of Richard Jefferson from Desmond Mason, if they don't find a way to get to a pass first guard like Ramon Sessions which entails getting rid of a shoot first guard like Mo Williams, then it'll be hard. Bogut has shown signs of promise but honestly hasn't been overly impressive to me, I just think the Bucks have too many slapdash pieces to really make it anywhere. A Michael Redd-Richard Jefferson combo is nice, but the other pieces are just not there, don't know that Villanueva, Mason, and company are the role players needed, it's Miluakee. The length of time that Atlanta is taking to sign Josh Smith and the prompt loss of Josh Childress to Greece really has me scratching my head at the front office, and even if they manage to keep Josh Smith somehow, I don't see him being happy in Atlanta, and honestly I don't even think they'll be able to keep him. I won't be surprised if he starts barking for a trade. They have a decent team, just mismangement, maybe it's the curse of Marvin Williams. Everyone seems to see something in Chicago that I don't. They have a lot of potential, but that's it, to me they're not significantly improved from the "potential" in Minnesota, and quite frankly, I think Al Jefferson is way more productive than Ben Gordon or Luol Deng. They pleasantly surprised a lot of people two seasons ago with their trip to the 2nd round of the Eastern Conference playoffs but I don't really think they're that good. Even if they keep Deng I don't think he's a solid go-to guy, he won't carry the team offensively, and all the other parts around him are too inconsistent. Bulls are rebuilding and need to develop their youth, they're not quite as far removed from the Oklahoma City Thunder (that leaves a bad taste in my mouth for some reason), but I don't think they'll make it this year, or the next, to be frank.
For now let's just start with the Eastern Conference:
1.) Boston Celtics
They've lost James Posey, they've lost PJ Brown, everyone is another year older. However, I feel that they've also had the time to get familiar with each other, feel each other out. I'm not overly impressed with the addition of Patrick O'Bryant, but who knows, maybe Kevin Garnett will somehow herd him into a weight room and get him in shape. All in all, the core of this team is the same, and I only really see room for improvement from Rajon Rondo, Glenn Davis, and Leon Powe. Resigning Eddie House and Tony Allen was a good move, which keeps their bench versatile. They don't have a real James Posey replacement yet, but I think they'll try to have Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine try to replace it, maybe they'll find someone worth picking up from free agency (bring back Ricky Davis! hehehe). All in all, the team that dominated the Eastern Conference and the NBA as a whole last season will continue to do so this season, again, major concern: health especially for Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, but it's not too bad. I still see them on the top, and a definite contender, I can easily see them repeating.
2.) Detroit Pistons
They're a perennial shoe-in, they're the Spurs of the East. However, there may be some major moves as the starting 5 have been here since the 2004 championship and they've been ousted in the Eastern Conference Finals every year ever since. Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace are showing their age and I think are the most likely to get moved (most likely Sheed) if anyone does. However, given their current configuration, I can't see them not winning. All in all, I'm not too impressed with their level of play given Flip Saunders's no double-teaming defensive strategy, which essentially is the kind of game that plays into the hands of someone like LeBron. However, I'll leave them up at the top as usual, because with the extra year I don't see them getting much rustier, Tayshaun Prince seems to be developing an offensive game to match his defensive tenacity, which I believe offsets any sign of age and wear on Antonio McDyess. Additionally, Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell really impressed a lot of people last season (myself included) with their high level of play, young big man Amir Johnson seems to have a lot of potential as well.
3.) Orlando Magic
This team I think can only get better. A lot of their loss to Detroit last year in the second round of the playoffs had to do with an cracked sternum that Dwight Howard sustained during the playoffs, and I think they have only improved their roster. Mickael Pietrus is by no means an All-Star addition, but "Air France" is an improvement (in my books) over Keith Bogans and Maurice Evans. I look for Dwight Howard to get a renewed sense of competition from the Olympics, and Hedo Turkoglu to polish his game a little more. Granted with the discovery that Turkoglu is All-Star material, Rashard Lewis has been somewhat relegated to a catch and shoot guy, I still think they can figure out an offense that involves Lewis more, he adds a lot of versatility to the team, and with Turkoglu and Lewis on the wings it gives the team a lot of flexibility by spreading the defense. If Dwight Howard can develop a couple more moves (right now I think he's like a giant Shawn Kemp) I think that Orlando should be included as contention material. Anthony Johnson is a solid backup, they just need Jameer Nelson to develop a more consistent game, maybe getting married will help him a little.
4.) Philadelphia 76ers
They've sort of been the talk of the town since they stole Elton Brand from the LA Clippers and their recent acquisition; Baron Davis. With Brand sliding into the starting PF slot in front of Reggie Evans, the 76ers added the one thing they lacked last year in the playoffs, instant offense in the frontcourt. When healthy Brand is easily a 20-10 threat every game. This will ease a lot of the offensive strain on Samuel Dalembert who I believe will flourish even more now that he can share the paint with an All-Star. This also adds leadership and veterancy in addition to the floor leader Andre Miller has become, and so long as the 76ers hold onto Andre Iguodala, they'll have one of the strongest teams in the league. Willie Green can rack it up easily from the perimeter, and add in the speed and athleticism of Thaddeus Young then they are a young and deadly team. Reggie Evans is a great hustle player, and while he's not a great starter I think will thrive off the bench as a backup to Brand. If the 76ers resign Louis Williams, he adds a lot of energy and explosiveness off the bench as well. All in all, a solid team now, also given the work ethic and the mentality of Elton Brand, I see him being a great locker room influence on all the younger players as well. The surprise 7th seed that took Detroit to 6 games just got a lot better, a heck of a lot better.
5.) Toronto Raptors
If a frontcourt of Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert looks scary, I think that one of Chris Bosh and Jermaine O'Neal is even more potent. The only reason I have them falling to 5 behind Philly is because I'm leery of Jermaine O'Neal's sustainability health-wise. The only way I see Toronto staying up here and having a run at the title is if O'Neal can stay healthy for like 62 games (about 75% of the regular season) and also for the post season as well. If not I see them being something akin to the Wizards, always someone injured, rather, always an All-Star injured. I see Jose Calderon really thriving now that he has full control of the offense, and with Bosh's ability to spread the floor with his range, O'Neal doesn't have to work quite as hard to create the offense, add on a slew of perimeter shooters in Anthony Parker, Jason Kapono, and Andrea Bargnani, it really stacks up. I also see a lot of upside for Jamario Moon. All in all, health remains the concern, but I like this team a lot now.
6.) Washington Wizards
Gilbert Arenas thinks that they're one of the top 5 teams in the NBA when they're healthy, maybe he's right, I personally don't buy it. This is a team that always looks good on paper but somehow always fails to meet expectations. I almost think I can count the number of times Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison took the floor together on my fingers over the past two seasons. I don't think it ever happened in the playoffs, maybe round 1 last season. They're good, but they're also pretty soft defensively. We have yet to see how well Arenas plays on his twice surgically repaired knee, and their defense has always been called into question. All in all, they are considered one of the softer defenses in the league, which, and I don't see that improving. Maybe health is a continual concern, but they've had no roster changes save for losing Roger Mason Jr to the Spurs, this team has been together for a while, and really haven't proven anything with it yet. Maybe things will be different this year, maybe they'll all be healthy again, I wouldn't hold my breath, because I told myself the same thing last season. Agent 0 wants a trophy to go with $111 million dollar contract, I don't think he's going to get one.
7.) Cleveland Cavaliers
While I can't really blame Mike Brown for how he runs his offense, a lot of the failure of the Cavs has been just that, how Mike Brown runs his offense. In short, his offensive set begins and ends with something like this; "Pass the ball to LeBron". With a talent like LeBron, I don't know that I'd do anything significantly different, however, given the talent surrounding LeBron (or lack thereof), it makes the Cavs very one-dimensional and easy to defend. It's not that the Cavs don't have a slew of weapons on the offense, it's just that teams always know where it's going to start, and can plug the offense there. That being said, Joe Smith on the post or Wally Sczerbiak and Daniel Gibson on the wings don't really inspire fear in me. One of my biggest criticisms of the Cavs roster is that all of their players can only do one thing, except for LeBron James and Zydraunas Ilgauskas, you have to sacrifice something for every player you put on the floor. Therefore, the roster keeps cylcing depending on the situations and the Cavs I feel can't get a whole lot of momentum going. You sacrifice offense when Eric Snow and Ben Wallace are on the floor, you sacrifice defense when you put Joe Smith in the game. Maybe LeBron needs to leave for a legitimate play set to be called, the only other option I see for Cleveland is to find someone legitimate to put next to LeBron, and no, Wally Sczerbiak is not legitimate. They need someone else to handle the ball to, someone else that can create on offense. Right now, they just have LeBron, and as good as he is and will be, that's just not enough.
8.) Miami Heat
While they may be far from being legitimate contenders again, I still see them being somewhat relevant in the Eastern Conference. With Wade coming back 100% I think they have a legitimate shot. Udonis Haslem is a solid player and I like the Dwayne Wade-Shawn Marion combo a lot more than I liked the Dwayne Wade-Shaquille O'Neal combo. They're a faster, more versatile team, we'll see how new head coach Eric Spolestra does in his first year, but he's got the talent to work with. A lot of it I think is going to fall with their two starting caliber rookies Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley, summer league isn't saying much but they showed promise there. If they can play to maybe about 3/4 the level of expectations I see the Heat regaining some legitimacy. Not sure what they'll do for their backup point guard, maybe Chris Quinn will come back, otherwise, not sure, the biggest problem will be the center, I'm not overly impressed with Mark Blount and I'm even more leery about Earl Barron, however, if the remaining starting 4, that is (in my opinion); Chalmers, Wade, Marion, and Beasley step it up, then I don't see it being a huge issue. In fact, maybe the Heat will play small and start Haslem as a center if the starting 4 work out well (that'd be interesting, I'd have a bad feeling abou it, but interesting nonetheless).
Those are my 8 Eastern Conference playoff bound teams based purely on speculation thusfar. Of course people might look at me and ask "What about such and such a team?" On the bubble I'm going to put Miluakee, Atlanta, and Chicago, in that order. While the Miluakee Bucks made a huge upgrade of Richard Jefferson from Desmond Mason, if they don't find a way to get to a pass first guard like Ramon Sessions which entails getting rid of a shoot first guard like Mo Williams, then it'll be hard. Bogut has shown signs of promise but honestly hasn't been overly impressive to me, I just think the Bucks have too many slapdash pieces to really make it anywhere. A Michael Redd-Richard Jefferson combo is nice, but the other pieces are just not there, don't know that Villanueva, Mason, and company are the role players needed, it's Miluakee. The length of time that Atlanta is taking to sign Josh Smith and the prompt loss of Josh Childress to Greece really has me scratching my head at the front office, and even if they manage to keep Josh Smith somehow, I don't see him being happy in Atlanta, and honestly I don't even think they'll be able to keep him. I won't be surprised if he starts barking for a trade. They have a decent team, just mismangement, maybe it's the curse of Marvin Williams. Everyone seems to see something in Chicago that I don't. They have a lot of potential, but that's it, to me they're not significantly improved from the "potential" in Minnesota, and quite frankly, I think Al Jefferson is way more productive than Ben Gordon or Luol Deng. They pleasantly surprised a lot of people two seasons ago with their trip to the 2nd round of the Eastern Conference playoffs but I don't really think they're that good. Even if they keep Deng I don't think he's a solid go-to guy, he won't carry the team offensively, and all the other parts around him are too inconsistent. Bulls are rebuilding and need to develop their youth, they're not quite as far removed from the Oklahoma City Thunder (that leaves a bad taste in my mouth for some reason), but I don't think they'll make it this year, or the next, to be frank.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Team USA: Looking Bright in the Future
So this is supposed to be about the NBA and I think it's legitimate to say that since all 12 players on Team USA are from the NBA this is a legitimate post, besides it's not every year that the Olympics happen, so I'll continue to do my random speculation for those interested parties. For those of you that have read long enough, sometimes I really don't know what I'm talking about so feel free to stop reading if ever that's the case that arises. For the previous Olympics and for the past few years in recent international basketball history, USA has fallen, since the Dream Team of 1992 and 1996 it was always kind of assumed that the US was sort of the best at basketball. Clearly that has not been proven true since Team USA has summarily been beaten by various international teams falling to third a number of times. Greece, Germany, Argentina, Russia, etc... the international competition is getting stiffer, and the game just doesn't translate well from NBA to the international forum. As great as Allen Iverson and Stephon Marbury were as individual players they couldn't carry their game over to the international game, a significant difference from the traditional NBA play.
However, this year looks to be different, the floor leaders are there, they've added age and experience with Jason Kidd and arguably the best player in the league in Kobe Bryant to their roster. This year is the year that they'll take it all, right? Even with Germany boasting a front line of Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Kaman, even with Manu Ginobili joining Andres Nocioni, Fabricio Oberto, Walter Hermann, and Luis Scola on the Argentinian national team, even with the Chinese duo of Yao and Yi, Team USA is the stronger team, on paper, in the NBA. Here's what the starting five I think will look like for Team USA, it's the same starting five as the 2007 FIBA qualifier:
PG- Jason Kidd
SG- Kobe Bryant
SF- LeBron James
PF- Carmelo Anthony
C- Dwight Howard
Off the bench we have:
PG- Deron Williams, Chris Paul
SG- Dwayne Wade, Michael Redd
SF- Tayshaun Prince
PF- Carlos Boozer
C- Chris Bosh
Or at least something along those lines. All in all expect the lineup to look a lot smaller, with LeBron and Prince moving more to the PF positions and maybe Kobe slipping to an SF position, as well as Boozer playing as a C. As good as Chris Paul is, you can't teach size, and international play is much more physical and bigger, especially in the backcourt, thus Jason Kidd is there to run the helm as the team trains up Deron Williams as his next replacement. Paul will get his play, but Coach K likes big guards so I see him going with Williams and Kidd more often. Tyson Chandler was to be the reserve, but I believe he has something of a toe infection that will keep him from going, we'll see who they opt to take instead. However, with only one true center in Dwight Howard, size may be an issue against larger lineups like China or Germany. A lot of European big men have range so I don't see that as a huge problem, having Boozer and Bosh on them is more like the PF position in the NBA anyway. Originally the tossup for the last roster spot was between Prince and Chandler, I'm more inclined to like Prince more here because he presents an additional perimeter threat, and he is one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. I stress a lot about perimeter because if you look at a lot of the international NBA stars they are all premier perimeter players, and a lot of European play thrives on perimeter based offenses. As far as perimeter offense Team USA only really has Michael Redd, you can count Kobe and Prince, and potentially Carmelo Anthony is now a legitimate 3 point threat with the shortened international line, however, it's not ideal. I think the plan is for points in transition, they'll be running the break (courtesy of assistant coach Mike D'Antoni), it'll be fun, and I think that if they stay tenacious on defense, then they have a solid shot of taking the gold.
However, this year looks to be different, the floor leaders are there, they've added age and experience with Jason Kidd and arguably the best player in the league in Kobe Bryant to their roster. This year is the year that they'll take it all, right? Even with Germany boasting a front line of Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Kaman, even with Manu Ginobili joining Andres Nocioni, Fabricio Oberto, Walter Hermann, and Luis Scola on the Argentinian national team, even with the Chinese duo of Yao and Yi, Team USA is the stronger team, on paper, in the NBA. Here's what the starting five I think will look like for Team USA, it's the same starting five as the 2007 FIBA qualifier:
PG- Jason Kidd
SG- Kobe Bryant
SF- LeBron James
PF- Carmelo Anthony
C- Dwight Howard
Off the bench we have:
PG- Deron Williams, Chris Paul
SG- Dwayne Wade, Michael Redd
SF- Tayshaun Prince
PF- Carlos Boozer
C- Chris Bosh
Or at least something along those lines. All in all expect the lineup to look a lot smaller, with LeBron and Prince moving more to the PF positions and maybe Kobe slipping to an SF position, as well as Boozer playing as a C. As good as Chris Paul is, you can't teach size, and international play is much more physical and bigger, especially in the backcourt, thus Jason Kidd is there to run the helm as the team trains up Deron Williams as his next replacement. Paul will get his play, but Coach K likes big guards so I see him going with Williams and Kidd more often. Tyson Chandler was to be the reserve, but I believe he has something of a toe infection that will keep him from going, we'll see who they opt to take instead. However, with only one true center in Dwight Howard, size may be an issue against larger lineups like China or Germany. A lot of European big men have range so I don't see that as a huge problem, having Boozer and Bosh on them is more like the PF position in the NBA anyway. Originally the tossup for the last roster spot was between Prince and Chandler, I'm more inclined to like Prince more here because he presents an additional perimeter threat, and he is one of the premier perimeter defenders in the league. I stress a lot about perimeter because if you look at a lot of the international NBA stars they are all premier perimeter players, and a lot of European play thrives on perimeter based offenses. As far as perimeter offense Team USA only really has Michael Redd, you can count Kobe and Prince, and potentially Carmelo Anthony is now a legitimate 3 point threat with the shortened international line, however, it's not ideal. I think the plan is for points in transition, they'll be running the break (courtesy of assistant coach Mike D'Antoni), it'll be fun, and I think that if they stay tenacious on defense, then they have a solid shot of taking the gold.
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