The Massive Melo Speculation Post: Part 2

Continuing on, two other teams mentioned in regards to the whole Melo trade speculation thing have been the Bulls and Rockets.  Here's what I think it will boil down to...


Chicago Bulls send Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, and James Johnson to Denver for Melo.
Frankly if this ever gets proposed and this does end up happening Ujiri will look like a genius and Paxson an idiot.  It's not that I don't like Melo, but the Bulls are getting fleeced for this deal, unless a third team gets involved and Chicago gets more out of this, this is the only way Chicago can even muster up enough salary to match Melo, short of trading Derrick Rose.  While a core of Rose, Melo, and Carlos Boozer is quite formidable, the Bulls essentially have gutted their entire frontcourt.  Chicago is now relegated to once again searching free agency, since their C slot is relegated to Omer Asik and Kurt Thomas, leaving no one really to backup Carlos Boozer.  I don't mind a 3 big rotation, but only if the three bigs are of high caliber.  Not to knock on Asik and Thomas, but frankly, Asik is completely unproven and Thomas, well, at best he'd be the third big. 

As for Denver, well, they get an amazingly solid lineup.  The presence of Noah will slide Nene back to PF, where he is more comfortable, and then Deng can take Melo's starting spot.  While perhaps not as offensively polished as Melo, Deng can hold his own and is a defensive force to be reckoned with.  Tack on the hustle and rebounding of Taj Gibson, plus scoring off the bench of Al Harrington (provided the rotations work out) and the Nuggets actually get better by getting rid of their best player.


Houston Rockets send Kevin Martin and Shane Battier to Denver for Melo.
Ultimately I really see this to be something of a wash, since it involves how well Melo meshes with a very team oriented system on Rick Adelman's Rockets.  This certainly allows Courtney Lee to get his chance as a starter on the Rockets next to a formidable lineup of Aaron Brooks, Melo, Luis Scola, and Yao Ming (if healthy).  While they don't have a number of big name players, Jared Jeffries can spot minutes as a defensive specialist, and Kyle Korver and Brad Miller off the bench is still a pretty good system roster wise.  Melo definitely is a step up from Kevin Martin scoring wise and should take a lot of that load off of Yao, providing a very balanced offense with Scola's hustle and Brooks's shooting.

On the flip side, Kevin Martin and Shane Battier slide into the Nuggets' starting lineup quite well.  However, the question is, how well will a platoon of J.R. Smith and Arron Afflalo for minutes work behind Martin in the depth charts.  Again, it's muuch more of a horizontal movement than any improvement given Martin's peaking game and Battier's decline due to age.

The Massive Melo Speculation Post: Part 1

So, Denver's front office has said that it will listen to trade offers for Melo, so as per usual, me and my trade mongering ways, I am going crazy with ESPN's trade machine. Rumors have the Nuggets asking for "top-tier young players, future first-round draft picks, young assets (i.e. high-upside players with relatively affordable contracts), and salary cap savings."  Chad Ford of ESPN also says that New Jersey is the front runner for Melo.  So here's the mongering!

New Jersey Nets send Derrick Favors, Troy Murphy, and Kris Humphries to Denver for Melo.
Chad Ford has this as the "intriguing" package that New Jersey has to offer.  Of course, the trade would mostly be for Favors, so Ujiri would be banking entirely on the upside of the 3rd overall pick of the 2010 draft.  Troy Murphy is more for an expiring contract piece and like Humphries is mostly there to make the money match.  While Humphries is a solid energy man off the bench for a thinner frontcourt given Kenyon Martin's injury, Troy Murphy is basically a white, more expensive, slightly better rebounding version of Al Harrington.  It's pretty ironic that it was only a few years ago that they were traded for each other (Golden State and Indiana).  While neither Harrington nor Murphy spell a move for Nene back to his more comfortable PF position, it does add a substantial amount of depth to the frontcourt, giving them two PFs with excellent range, unfortunately Favors and Humphries are both also PF and Favors is definitely someone that Denver would want to develop.  With Chris Andersen already spelling minutes as backup this creates mostly a logjam more than any significant amount of depth to be afraid of, as none of Harrington, Murphy, Favors, nor Humphries look to sop up minutes as a center in a non-Don Nelson rotation.  That means 6 players (Favors, Murphy, Harrington, Martin, Shelden Williams, and Renaldo Balkman) fighting for 48 minutes at one position.  Naturally, now that they have no SF, it's entirely possible to see Harrington slide back to SF where he originally played in Atlanta, but like Josh Smith, he is a little slow on the defensive end in keeping up with the wings.  It's possible to see J.R. Smith and/or Arron Afflalo start to see minutes at the SF slot with a dual PG thing with Billups at the 2 and Ty Lawson seeing more minutes.  That'll be something for George Karl to figure out.  In general, other than a cost cutting mechanism, it's not really looking like a good thing for Denver. 

For New Jersey, well they get Melo.  They do effectively trade away all of their PFs though.  While Melo and Outlaw can both play spot minutes at the 4 slot, it's not something I'm entirely comfortable seeing either doing for long stretches.  This makes Joe Smith the primary PF, and while that should be okay around a core offense of Devin Harris, Melo, and Brook Lopez, it's not really something I think ideal.  I like the young sharpshooter Anthony Morrow manning the SG slot and keeping defenses honest with his range, but depth at every position other than SF is something of a concern.  Johan Petro is a great addition as a hustle guy behind Brook Lopez, but all other positions are only one deep, which means a lot of extended minutes for the starters or a lot of people playing out of position.  While getting Melo may sound good, I'm not sure I'm entirely in favor of this trade, I don't think it's really good for either team. 


New York Knicks send Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, and Eddy Curry to Denver for Melo.
This now is entirely in the realm of my personal speculation.  I think ultimately Gallinari is the biggest asset that New York has to offer.  Whether or not Ujiri sees enough upside in him may also determine whether or not New York throws in even more picks which it doesn't really have a lot of, into the deal or something.  Eddy Curry is finally an expiring contract, and at worse is just that, if Curry does somehow make a comeback, he might be a decent low-post option to slide Nene back to PF.  Gallinari and Chandler make a decent 1-2 combo at the small forward position, and if Gallinari pans out, it'll be all in all something good for Denver, as he brings a lot of similar skillsets that Melo brings to the table.  Chandler is a good athletic spark plug off the bench and also solid defensively. 

For New York, well, it's part 2 of the supposed Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire big 3.  It certainly adds another major scoring punch, but coexistence with Amar'e may be questionable.  Though, if Melo did it decently with Allen Iverson, I don't suppose it'll be significantly more difficult than that.  With Raymond Felton at PG it'll be a decent lineup with a high potential Anthony Randolph and high energy Ronny Turiaf sharing the frontcourt with Amar'e.  At the 2 you have decent shooters of Roger Mason and Kelenna Azubuike as well as the scoring energy of Bill Walker.  If Tony Douglas keeps up the strong play behind Felton, then I think the Knicks all-in-all would have a pretty dang good team.  Not stellar, but definitely middle of the pack good.  Playoff good.

Those are the two main teams I think that have a shot at landing Melo in the East.  While there are teams that I think might need him, it's entirely up to speculation.  Melo has expressed interest in Orlando, but frankly, I don't know that they can offer enough and I don't think Melo is a good enough fit to be worth speculating excessively about it.  I'll post more later.