Thursday, May 8, 2008

The Playoffs Thusfar

So the NBA playoffs have reached round 2 (finally, after what was nearly the greatest upset of all time), and each team here is arguably the best in the league, the Elite Eight if you would. The only difference being that each series is decided in 7 games instead of one. Let's breakdown what's going on so far.

East:

Celtics vs Cavaliers (Celtics lead 1-0)

After what was likely one of the most offensively disgusting game from both teams, the Celtics manage to pull a big victory over the Cavs in Game 1 and look to repeat in Game 2. Of course, the fact that Ray Allen went scoreless and Paul Pierce shooting only 2-14 and not getting to the freethrow line should worry the Celtics, but they had Lebron missing layups and shots all the time after a rattling first half and was limited to 2-18 shooting. Of course, what everyone talks about the most is Lebron's near quadruple double (12pts, 9rbds, 9assts, 10TOs), and how Posey and Pierce were really able to take the momentum out of him. Of course, they can't really bank on this deterring King James. Of course we do also have 852 other games to tell us that historically, Ray Allen will put numbers onto the board. Indeed, the Celtics can't really expect to bring the steamroller that is Lebron to a grinding halt, but what they can do is make his journey to the bucket difficult and make it hard for him to get his teammates involved. One of the Cavs' biggest weaknesses is that while they have several pieces, all their talent (except James) is diversified through several different players, meaning that oftentimes they have to forgo one aspect of the game for another. The supporting cast around Lebron is frequently one-dimensional, and thus it's easier to exploit.

Pistons vs Magic (Pistons lead 2-1)

The Orlando Magic showed us how they can play up to their potential in Game 3, where Rashard Lewis proved his worth by draining a career playoff high of 33 pts. Dwight Howard was getting easy looks and dominating inside and everyone was hitting beyond the arc, the inside-outside offense was working like it was supposed to. Of course, it helped that Chauncey Billups left the game with a strained hamstring. To continue to hold on to this series of course, the Magic have to regain a certain degree of consistency from beyond the arc, Lewis and Turkoglu have to start making their shots with regularity so that they can spread the floor and have Dwight Howard abuse the inside like we're so used to seeing. Of course, you can't really expect the Pistons to ease off either, so the biggest question will be for them; will Chauncey Billups come back? when? and will he be 100%?

West:

Lakers vs Jazz (Lakers lead 2-0)

I think that people are making too big of a deal about the 2-0 leads in the Western Conference. Generally, they've simply been teams winning at home. Yes, it does build a certain degree of momentum, it does mean the team is 2 games closer and only 2 games away from advancing. Of course, though, as many say, "The Playoffs don't really start until someone wins away." Or something to that effect. Lakers have been really abusing the Jazz with the perfection of Phil Jackson's triangle offense, making the right passes at the right time, and of course, Kobe Bryant's 38 pts in Game 1 and 34 in Game 2 helped a little too. Jerry Sloan needs to simply keep a tight reign on his team, he's been there, I'm sure there's a certain history with Sloan and Jackson, Phil Jackson, Michael Jordan, and the Chicago Bulls having ousted Jerry Sloan, Karl Malone, and John Stockton from the NBA Finals two consecutive years. Arguably both coaches once again have similar pieces that run their offenses similar to those heyday years if not better. Jackson has his triangle running through Kobe, Odom, and Gasol, a legitimate big man scorer, something that Chicago lacked back then, and thus relied on Jordan's post shot. Sloan has his Malone and Stockton reincarnate in Boozer and Williams. Of course there are those who say that calling Boozer and Williams, Malone and Stockton is unfair, it's more like Malone and a Jason Kidd that can shoot.

I think the Jazz have a very good opportunity to tie the series back up with the two upcoming games in Utah. Most teams have generally commented that Utah is the hardest place to play for any team (other than the Jazz). The atmosphere is almost hostile. I think that the Jazz will draw a lot of energy from the home crowd, but in addition to that there are just a couple of little things the Jazz need to do to make this series a little more interesting. One of them is to capitalize more on second chance opportunities. The Jazz easily out-rebounded the Lakers 58-41 in Game 1 and 25-8 on the offensive glass. I think that Utah is a bigger team inside, and they need to try to get in a position to exploit that more, meaning that Okur and Korver are going to need to hit outside more often to free up some space for Boozer. It's going to be a tough series, but I think that Jazz just have to keep their heads, they're the underdog, Lakers are just playing amazing basketball right now, but I think the Jazz can step up to the challenge.

Hornets vs Spurs (Hornets lead 2-0)

The New Orleans Hornets are leading 2-0 and they are the feel-good story of the year, about how a young point guard named Chris Paul has completely turned a failing team around and how he has revived basketball in the city of New Orleans. As the Hornets manhandled the Spurs 101-82 in Game 1 and then 102-84 in Game 2, people are all shouting about how the Hornets' young legs have made the Spurs look old and lethargic, how the Spurs are showing their age and can't keep up with the Hornets' dynamic game. However, as Chris Paul himself says, "A series doesn't start until the home team loses." And again, all the Hornets have done is won at home. So don't count the Spurs out until the series is over, T-Mac did that when he was in Orlando with a 3-1 lead over Detroit, and he still hasn't made it out of the first round.

The Hornets of course have everyone wondering about the value of experience in the playoffs as they easily handed the Dallas Mavericks their exit out of the playoffs in Game 5, but I would argue that simply, the Hornets were always a better team than the Mavs, and the play from your roster is always more important than experience. A team of young studs (say like I took a roster of All-Stars playing for under 4 years) will beat out a team of old reserves (not to say that Dallas is a bad team, but the talent is just too limited). The Spurs however, are a different story, and I look for their experience to pull them out of this one. The Spurs, in the first two games seem to have been unable to find their offense and thus have looked rather confused and bewildered by Chris Paul. While the Hornets thrive on the only game Spurs defense allows, the 15-18 foot jumper, I think the Spurs just need to slow down and catch their breath. A good opportunity to do so back home. The primary need of the Spurs is two-fold, one is that Manu Ginobli can once again get into his game, once he's on, the Hornets effective don't have much that can stop him, of course to do so, he'll need some help, which means that the role players have to step in, Michael Finley and Brent Barry need to find their shot from long range, Robert Horry has to start making big shots again. Another thing I believe that the Spurs can exploit is how thin the Hornets are on the bench in terms of big men. Beyond Chandler and West there really isn't much there, thus if Duncan can get Chandler into foul trouble early, there might be some easy points to be had inside. Of course, the Spurs justh ave to gear it up offensively once again, and spread the floor like they generally do. Most of all they can't let this young upstart team faze them.