There is no Texas Triumverate

The Texas triangle (Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs) has always been considered among the elite of the West. However, that's not the case any more, simply because the West has taken "elite" to an entirely different level. I could always go on to rant and rave about MVPs and whether or not Kobe's going to get one, if he deserves one, if Lebron should get one, if there are any other eligible players for one, etc... But there are plenty of people out there who have written about who and why, and honestly, I don't get a say in it, so it doesn't really matter. Maybe I'll discuss it later. Right now, I'm going to discuss how there is only one team to beat from Texas (not three) and how that team is San Antonio.

Firstly, since the Jason Kidd trade we notice that Dallas has not significantly improved, save perhaps for Dirk Nowitzki's scoring (averaging 25.7 ppg after Kidd trade from 22.8 prior). In fact, since trading for Kidd, the Dallas Mavericks have gone 4-5 losing their last three, granted against the Lakers and Utah, the number 2 and 4 seeds respectively, but also against Houston, who against all odds after loosing Yao, have won 3 in a row. I mean, we're talking about a team that relies on a guy with chronic back problems (T-Mac) and Rafer Alston's shooting, who is as liable to shoot 28% as he is 48%. Even with Dirk suspended for his flagrant on AK-47 there was no reason for them to lose that game. Despite Kidd being happy in Dallas, he's complacent, if last night's performance (7 pts, 6 rbds, 6 assts, 4 TOs) was any indication of how he's going to play, the Mavs might have been better off keeping Devin Harris.

I may be a little biased in this as I have never liked the Mavericks, but still, looking at their roster, their gameplay, they all expected it to kind of work out once Jason Kidd came, I think both parties expected things just to happen, and it didn't. Obviously, Jason Kidd isn't the difference maker that the Mavs needed (again, 4-5 since the trade). They needed Kidd because they needed to beat teams like the Spurs, the Lakers, the Hornets, the Rockets, and the Jazz, and they lost to all of them. I'm not going to commend them for beating the teams that they were supposed to beat (Minnesota, Memphis, Sacramento, and Chicago). Now they're 7th in the West, only 1 game ahead of being 8th and 2 games ahead of not being in the playoffs, we're talking about a team that was 3rd going into All-Star break. Now they're competing with a competitive Golden State who have not had a losing streak of more than 2 since Stephen Jackson returned from his suspension, and have not lost 2 in a row since January 4. As well as dealing with Denver, who has just come off a major win over Phoenix.

The major problem with Dallas is their lineup, they're not big, but they're not small, so they can get exploited by both lineup types. To me, they're like a really slow Golden State or San Antonio with no interior presence. They need someone other than Dirk Nowitzki to play PF, and Dirk can go the route of Rashard Lewis and be an oversized 3. I mean, essentially this is the team that won 60+ last season, and their's no reason why they shouldn't get at least 50 this season, but the fact is as Dirk stated after their embarrassing departure from the Western Conference playoffs (round 1 I might remind you), "We could have really used some help inside." At which point Erick Dampier (who is actually 6'11") might be asking (along with everyone else), "Gee, my fellow 7-foot teammate, WHERE THE HECK WERE YOU?!?!" Dirk Nowitzki is not a franchise player, at least not a very good one, he's better suited as a second option scorer or something.

Now that much of the Dallas's success rests on the 35 year old shoulders of Jason Kidd, the Mavs are in a sort of must-win situation. However, things have not been looking good for them ever since the trade and their roster just isn't suited for the rigors of the Western Conference. At this rate, they're also on the line struggling for a playoff spot, not the shoe-in that everyone thought they once were, and despite previous success, they've fallen greatly. Looking at their schedule it's still tough, they still have 2 games against the Suns, 2 games against the Lakers, 2 games against the Warriors, and games against San Antonio, Utah, New Orleans, and Boston.

Houston as usual, is battling major health issues, with Yao out for the season, the burden of the team has fallen on the oh-so-fragile shoulders of Tracy McGrady. Granted they've won their 17 in a row but they've had a pretty easy schedule stealing wins only from Denver and a Nowitzki-less Dallas, beating out Indiana without Yao. However, continuing through the rest of the season, most people will say that it's pretty safe to say that Houston is in the playoffs. Their schedule isn't too tough and they have a 3.5 game buffer ahead of Golden State (current 8th seed). However, without Yao, the Rockets have become drastically unprepared for anything that the playoffs will hurl at them, and will thus continue to live out the T-Mac curse of never making it out of the first round of playoffs. On paper the new and renovated Rockets looked like a serious contender, throughout the season they have continued to prove me wrong. If they were to enter into the playoffs now it would be the deja-vu situation of seeing Carlos Boozer and Deron Williams once again knocking them out of the playoffs. Nothing can be done about it, beyond T-Mac they're thin on anything but role-players. If his back acts up again, don't expect Shane Battier, Rafer Alston, or Luis Scola to save the team.

Why Lebron James Will be Swept Again if He Goes to the Finals

I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again, if Detroit and Boston are somehow upset in the playoffs, I expect the NBA Finals to be painfully short and an unspectacular romping of whichever team comes out of the Eastern Conference. Let's say any of the top 5 teams in the West have a shot at the Finals (Lakers, Spurs, Suns, Hornets, Mavericks), in any given 7 game series against an Eastern Conference team not called the Pistons or the Celtics, will likely be resolved within 5 games (more likely a sweep, though Orlando might make it to 6). Let's look at the team that probably has the biggest x-factor to once again make it to the Finals, that would be the Cleveland Cavaliers. Here's why, if they do by some freak accident, make it to the Finals, they will lose, again:

1.) Just because Sasha Pavlovic did a "good job" guarding a lethargic Vince Carter last season against the Nets does not mean that he can stop Kobe Bryant or Manu Ginobili (maybe with Peja and Jason Terry and Raja Bell). The reason; Kobe and Manu actually care. Rod Thorn has already spent seasons and $60 million trying to get the former All-Star and slam dunk champion to at least try when he's playing. Carter's kind of resigned himself to the fact that he'll always play on mediocre teams that don't go anywhere though. Avery Johnson said he tried every kind of defense conceivable to stop Kobe, and it didn't happen. Manu Ginobili has been on a hot streak and just won't be denied, he's had over 30 pts in 4 of the last 9 games that the Spurs played (all Ws for the Spurs btw).

2.) The Cavs will have a harder time shutting down Tim Duncan or Pau Gasol (or David West or Amare Stoudamire or Dirk Nowitzki) than the other team will have shutting down Ben Wallace. Seriously, for a guy that has a good game a 6pts, 10 rbds this season, you're not really going to need a lot to limit his scoring, and you know that Wallace will see a lot of play time trying to stop the bigs inside. Sure he'll cut them down by a couple of FGs, but when they sub in Joe Smith they'll go crazy, and not like Ben Wallace will make a big enough difference to matter in the end anyway.

3.) The Cavs' added perimeter threat isn't overly threatening. Only about as much as say the Spurs perimeter with only Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen shooting, but when you tack on Ginobili, Barry, and the occaisional clutch 3 from Robert Horry, Sczerbiak, West, and Gibson don't look that scary. From the Lakers you have Fisher, Vujajic, Farmar, and Kobe, Mavs have Terry, Howard, and Nowitzki, Hornets have Peja and Mo Pete (I don't include the Suns because they don't play defense anyway, but they still have Nash, Bell, and occaisionally Grant Hill).