Friday, March 27, 2009

Revisiting the age question

So I talked about this earlier, sort of, and decided it'd be pretty interesting to visit again. So this time, let's do it by age. Here are my picks:

Over 30:

PG - Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd
SG - Kobe Bryant, Vince Carter, Ray Allen
SF - Paul Pierce, Antawn Jamison
PF - Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki
C - Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal, Marcus Camby

This team would probably play pretty slow, I can see a 5 on the floor of Chauncey Billups, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, and Shaq on the floor causing havoc on both ends, I like Billups and Allen being spot up shooters while KG, Duncan, and Shaq cause havoc all across the various post positions. I don't know that there are enough shooters for a Greg Popovich system to work, but I'd love to see Phil Jackson run his triangle offense through this. Shaq, Duncan, Garnett, and even to some extent Camby are all very good passing big men, and the length that they'd have in the frontcourt would make them a nightmare on either end of the court. Should they want more of a transition game I can see a lineup of Kidd, Bryant, Pierce (or Carter), Dirk (or Jamison or KG), and Camby being fairly effective too.

25-30:

PG - Deron Williams, Tony Parker
SG - Dwayne Wade, Joe Johnson, Brandon Roy
SF - LeBron James, Caron Butler, Carmelo Anthony
PF - Amar'e Stoudemire, Chris Bosh
C - Yao Ming, Pau Gasol

This would be like a dream Mike D'Antoni team if you slid Amar'e to the 5 slot and plugged Bosh in at the 4. You could also run super small by having LeBron play the 4 and Joe Johnson or Caron Buter take the 3. Either way this team is designed for running, outside of Yao and Gasol. They have at least 6 ball handlers (Williams, Parker, Wade, Johnson, Roy, James) that can all initiate the offense fairly effectively. A big question though would be on the defensive end and how they'd hold up there, especially in the frontcourt.

Under 25:

PG - Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose
SG - OJ Mayo, Monta Ellis
SF - Kevin Durant, Rudy Gay
PF - Al Jefferson, LaMarcus Aldridge
C - Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, Andris Biedrins

This is a young team, so I would probably pick like Jerry Sloan or someone to coach it. While Mayo, Durant, and Gay aren't great 3 point shooters they can still space the floor. The big question will be if Dwight Howard and Al Jefferson can coexist as neither has a great mid-range game. However, it'd be really fun to watch Chris Paul run a high pick-and-roll with Dwight Howard.

Well? What's your pick?

What will it take?: Cleveland Cavaliers

I know, I know, I'm pretty long overdue with this post. I was hoping to get some of the more prominent names in the blogosphere involved, but alas, I don't really know anyone in the Cavs blogosphere, as I don't really follow the Cavs outside of the plethora of LeBron news that assaults my reader daily. So I guess that means I'm stuck doing my own analysis. Shucks. I'm sure that's what some of you are thinking.

Anyways, the Cavs have had a pretty strong showing ever since LeBron has been on the team, because well, LeBron is LeBron. The Cavs have made the playoffs for since the 2005-2006 season, and it's largely been on the shoulders of LeBron James, especially since Cleveland got shafted by Carlos Boozer in the 2004 free agency. Regardless, with a supporting cast featuring the likes of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Sasha Pavlovic, Eric Snow, Larry Hughes, and the like, LeBron carried the Cavs into the playoffs (albeit in a weaker Eastern Conference), and even as far as the NBA Finals past the Detroit Pistons in 2007, only to be swept by the San Antonio Spurs. I'm sure you're all familiar with the history so I'll try to fast-forward to today.

Basically, everyone (including Mike Brown) realized that the Cavs, while a strong defensive team, desperately needed offense outside of LeBron James. LeBron just wasn't the Allen Iverson type that dominated the ball, and honestly, good defensive teams were able to stop the Cavs' offense by simply bottlenecking the point of origin, LeBron, and since he was the only point of origin, it worked. During the past offseason, the Cavs realized this and made a three-way move sending Joe Smith to Oklahoma City, who in turn sent Luke Ridnour to Milwaukee, who subsequently handed Mo Williams over to Cleveland (and Desmond Mason to OKC). At that juncture, Mo Williams was the second most reliable scorer on the Bucks behind Michael Redd, but the emergence of Ramon Sessions had rendered Williams somewhat expendable. Williams was averaging 17.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 6.4 assists during his last season as a Buck.

What Williams added, was a player who could create his own shot, someone who didn't have to rely on LeBron to make offense, i.e. a second point of offensive origin. Currently, Mo Williams, is doing his Mo Williams thing, just on a better team (17.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists). It's definitely improved the Cavs significantly, as it has made their offense flow better, that and the fact that Mike Brown has developed an offense outside of "pass LeBron the ball at the top of the key". However, despite having the best record in the league (58-13), there is still no guarantee that the Cavs will win a title or even make it to the Finals. They still have to fight through an improved Eastern Conference playoff bracket and then take out whoever the West throws out at them. If they do make it to the Finals again, it won't be the trouncing they received 2 years ago, but again, it's not a given that they'll take it either.

So what's it gonna take? Well, ideally I would've said another scoring option, because to me honestly, I don't think that Mo Williams is a very good second option (I think Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a crappier third option), not that he's a bad player, but I think if you had another player who could score, maybe on the low block or something, they'd be more effective. However, that essentially fell through with the lack of a trade come the deadline. Mo Williams will have big shooting nights, but not consistently as say like Ray Allen, so what's going to have to happen, is that the role players are going to have to step it up.

One of the Cavs biggest weaknesses is offense in the low post, if you look at their front court, you have some pairing of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Joe Smith, Anderson Varejao, and JJ Hickson. Let's assume that they get Ben Wallace back healthy, because I think they're going to need him come playoff time, so throw him into the mix too (Lorenzen Wright does not count). While Big Z is consistent, he's not a guy that can really score at will, and really makes a living off of open face up 12 footers than anything else.

Production-wise JJ Hickson and Joe Smith are virtually identical on a per 36 minute basis. The primary difference being that JJ Hickson coughs up the ball a lot more than Smith. While they're both solid, they, and Big Z, are by no means extraordinary offensive threats in the low block. I haven't seen much of Hickson play, but I'd imagine that he's not great or that his IQ isn't as high as Cavs might like if Brown is leery of playing him as a rookie in the post season and therefore is going with tried and true Joe Smith and his veteran exerpience. If we look at Varejao and Wallace, while Varejao isn't completely useless on offense, like Ben Wallace is, they're both more of an impact on the defensive end, which means they are even less of a scoring option than Big Z, Hickson, and Smith.

The offense then has to come from the shooters. Mo Williams, Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, and Wally Sczerbiak have to keep up their solid shooting from this season in order to carry the team over the top. LeBron is going to find them, but they need to be able to make the shots that they get, and do so consistently, which I suppose is the case for most teams. However, I emphasize this for the Cavs simply because there really just aren't that many weapons to rely on, while Williams was certainly an upgrade (from Larry Hughes and Eric Snow), I don't know that it's necessarily enough to carry them over in 7 games straight, especially since they are a little weak in the low post (see Dallas Mavericks from 2005-2007). My focus in terms of offensive production I think really has to be Delonte West, who's definitely stepped it up for the brunt of the season, but really has to maintain that high level of play for the Cavs to win it all.

While the Cavs have always been a good defensive team, they can't really take all that for granted. With Ben Wallace down, the team really suffers defensively on the block, as Joe Smith and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are by no means stoppers. Joe Smith may know the system and is probably pretty good with the help, but honestly, we can't forget that he was criticized so much last season for his inability to guard Kevin Garnett in the playoffs. Joe Smith is not a young guy, and so his defense isn't really going to get better. They have to really help a lot on the defense with teams that play physical like Boston and Atlanta (and Orlando I guess), while I don't know that they'll win a lot of the frontcourt battles, they can't afford to be beat too much by the opposing bigs.

Of course the big assumption is that LeBron will be enough to tide this better team over. I think that in this off season if they can acquire a major piece, say a solid PF scorer or maybe another explosive swingman then they'd be solid. With what they have now, LeBron will have to continue to be pretty darn amazing, and everyone else is going to have to step it up.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Best Draft Class Revisited

So I did a post on the best draft class currently represented in the NBA. However, what if we were to do just the best draft class in the last 20 years? Who do you think would come out on top? I compiled the rosters using the ASG style format, 12 man rosters, so quality of depth does come into account. Here is my list:

1989 PG Tim Hardaway
1990 PG Gary Payton
1991 PG Kenny Anderson
1992 PG Latrell Sprewell

SG Sean Elliot

SG Kendall Gill

SG Steve Smith

SG Jim Jackson

SF Glen Rice

SF Cedric Ceballos

SF Stacey Augmon

SF Robert Horry

PF Shawn Kemp

PF Derrick Coleman

PF Larry Johnson

PF Christian Laettner

C Vlade Divac

C Antonio Davis

C Dikembe Mutumbo

C Shaquille O'Neal

6th Mookie Blaylock

6th Toni Kukoc

6th Dale Davis

6th Alonzo Mourning

7th Cliff Robinson

7th Elden Campbell

7th Chris Gatling

7th Tom Gugliotta

8th Dana Barros

8th Dennis Scott

8th Luc Longley

8th PJ Brown

9th Danny Ferry

9th Dee Brown

9th Rick Fox

9th Harold Miner

10th Nick Anderson

10th Terry Mills

10th Eric Murdock

10th Doug Christie

Res Dino Rada

Res Loy Vaught

Res Billy Owens

Res Popeye Jones

Res BJ Armstrong

Res Jayson Williams

Res Greg Anthony

Res Jon Barry















1993 PG Penny Hardaway
1994 PG Jason Kidd
1995 PG Damon Stoudamire
1996 PG Steve Nash

SG Allan Houston

SG Eddie Jones

SG Jerry Stackhouse

SG Kobe Bryant

SF Jamal Mashburn

SF Grant Hill

SF Michael Finley

SF Peja Stojakovic

PF Vin Baker

PF Juwan Howard

PF Kevin Garnett

PF Jermaine O'Neal

C Chris Webber

C Eric Montross

C Rasheed Wallace

C Marcus Camby

6th Isaiah Rider

6th Glenn Robinson

6th Antonio McDyess

6th Ray Allen

7th Sam Cassell

7th Donyell Marshall

7th Theo Ratliff

7th Shareef Abdur-Rahim

8th Nick Van Exel

8th Jalen Rose

8th Kurt Thomas

8th Allen Iverson

9th Lindsey Hunter

9th Brian Grant

9th Brent Barry

9th Stephon Marbury

10th Shawn Bradley

10th Charlie Ward

10th Joe Smith

10th Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Res Bryon Russell

Res Lamond Murray

Res Bob Sura

Res Derek Fisher

Res Rodney Rogers

Res Aaron Mckie

Res Travis Best

Res Erick Dampier















1997 PG Chauncey Billups
1998 PG Mike Bibby
1999 PG Baron Davis
2000 PG Jamal Crawford

SG Stephen Jackson

SG Vince Carter

SG Richard Hamilton

SG Michael Redd

SF Tracy McGrady

SF Paul Pierce

SF Ron Artest

SF Hedo Turkoglu

PF Tim Duncan

PF Dirk Nowitzki

PF Lamar Odom

PF Kenyon Martin

C Tony Battie

C Raef LaFrentz

C Elton Brand

C Jamaal Magloire

6th Keith Van Horn

6th Antawn Jamison

6th Steve Francis

6th Mike Miller

7th Danny Fortson

7th Rashard Lewis

7th Shawn Marion

7th Quentin Richardson

8th Derek Anderson

8th Bonzi Wells

8th Andrei Kirilenko

8th Stromile Swift

9th Anthony Parker

9th Jason Williams

9th Manu Ginobili

9th Joel Przybilla

10th Antonio Daniels

10th Al Harrington

10th Jason Terry

10th Keyon Dooling

Res Bobby Jackson

Res Larry Hughes

Res Andre Miller

Res Morris Peterson

Res Tim Thomas

Res Rasho Nesterovic

Res Corey Maggette

Res DeShawn Stevenson















2001 PG Tony Parker
2002 PG Roger Mason
2003 PG TJ Ford
2004 PG Devin Harris

SG Joe Johnson

SG Mike Dunleavy

SG Dwayne Wade

SG Kevin Martin

SF Gerald Wallace

SF Caron Butler

SF LeBron James

SF Andre Iguodala

PF Pau Gasol

PF Amar'e Stoudemire

PF Chris Bosh

PF Al Jefferson

C Mehmet Okur

C Yao Ming

C Chris Kaman

C Dwight Howard

6th Tyson Chandler

6th Carlos Boozer

6th Carmelo Anthony

6th Emeka Okafor

7th Gilbert Arenas

7th Nene Hilario

7th David West

7th Jameer Nelson

8th Jason Richardson

8th Tayshaun Prince

8th Josh Howard

8th Luol Deng

9th Zach Randolph

9th John Salmons

9th Mo Williams

9th Josh Smith

10th Shane Battier

10th Luis Scola

10th Leandro Barbosa

10th Ben Gordon

Res Troy Murphy

Res Drew Gooden

Res Boris Diaw

Res Andris Biedrins

Res Richard Jefferson

Res Matt Barnes

Res Kendrick Perkins

Res JR Smith















2005 PG Chris Paul
2006 PG Rajon Rondo
2007 PG Rodney Stuckey
2008 PG Derrick Rose

SG Monta Ellis

SG Brandon Roy

SG Rudy Fernandez

SG OJ Mayo

SF Danny Granger

SF Rudy Gay

SF Kevin Durant

SF Michael Beasley

PF David Lee

PF Paul Millsap

PF Al Horford

PF Kevin Love

C Andrew Bynum

C LaMarcus Aldridge

C Spencer Hawes

C Brook Lopez

6th Deron Williams

6th Andrea Bargnani

6th Thaddeus Young

6th Russell Westbrook

7th Charlie Villanueva

7th Randy Foye

7th Jeff Green

7th Jason Thompson

8th Andrew Bogut

8th Tyrus Thomas

8th Al Thornton

8th Courtney Lee

9th Marvin Williams

9th Ronnie Brewer

9th Wilson Chandler

9th Mario Chalmers

10th Nate Robinson

10th Renaldo Balkman

10th Aaron Brooks

10th George Hill

Res Francisco Garcia

Res Leon Powe

Res Nick Young

Res DJ Augustin

Res Ryan Gomes

Res Thabo Sefalosha

Res Greg Oden

Res Jerryd Bayless


So we start from 1989 and go to today, picking the best representation of each draft class, of course, I may not have picked who you think are the best players, so you can feel free to let me know if you disagree, this is just my opinion. While I think the 1996 draft class might still be the team to beat, with 2003 coming a close second, I'm actually surprised by the talent in 1999 and 2001. Of course, with the most recent drafts, it's still a bit early to tell, but let me know your pick!

Revamping All-Star Weekend

I know I have other posts I should be getting to, but this idea just popped in my head so I'm going to go with it before I forget it. Many people complain how All-Star weekend needs to be changed, I personally would like to see more basketball and less show-boating, though, that's what the regular season is for. What if we just did more basketball games with like in-game "achievements"? Though, that might get pretty messy. I wouldn't mind just having basketball though, forgoing the dunk contest, three point shootout, skills challenge, celebrity game, and Shooting for the Stars. Additionally, the big talk around All-Star break is always about who gets "snubbed".

I know, All-Star break is long over, but it never hurts to speculate though, right? So here's my take; 6-team tourney featuring the All-Stars by division not by conference. Rank the division by overall division win-loss performance, and then have the top coaching staff in each division coach. This way, even the bad teams have good representation in the festivities, and good players aren't penalized for being on bad teams. If we were to do it right now, here's what it would look like:

Eastern Conference Seeding:

1.) Southeast Division 181-177 (.506)
2.) Atlantic Division 175-181 (.492)
3.) Central Division 187-206 (.476)

Western Conference Seeding:

1.) Southwest Division 198-157 (.558)
2.) Northwest Division 174-183 (.487)
3.) Pacific Division 154- 201 (.433)

I suppose one difficulty will be figuring out how to schedule the whole thing, and that players might only want to play one game, as it is supposed to be a "break". Also given that each conference only has 3 divisions, it'd be hard to figure out who'd play more games and stuff like that. In the end, I suppose you could do like a round robin style play, where everyone plays everyone else, shorten the games a little, maybe make the rosters only 6 man and do it that way.

Picking teams also provides to be a slight challenge, but I think that each team should put in one player they think is most deserving (all teams then represented), and then the other coaches vote for the remaining players. Maybe the coaches could all nominate a panel, and from that selection the fans decide who gets to play. Teams won't all be equally represented, but certainly, the good players on poor teams get the recognition they deserve. Certainly, some of the smaller market players would get more exposure. Assuming we do normal All-Star size 12 man rosters, here are my picks, let's assume there are no season ending injuries, and everyone who started the season healthy, is still healthy:

Southeast Division (Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks, Miami Heat, Charlotte Bobcats, Washington Wizards)
Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy

PG: Jameer Nelson (Orlando Magic)
SG: Dwayne Wade (Miami Heat)
SF: Caron Butler (Washington Wizards)
PF: Antawn Jamison (Washington Wizards)
C: Dwight Howard (Orlando Magic)

Guards: Joe Johnson (Atlanta Hawks), Mike Bibby (Atlanta Hawks)
Forwards: Gerald Wallace (Charlotte Bobcats), Rashard Lewis (Orlando Magic)
Center: Emeka Okafor (Charlotte Bobcats)
Reserves: Josh Smith (Atlanta Hawks), Hedo Turkoglu (Orlando Magic)

Atlantic Division (Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, New Jersey Nets, New York Knicks, Toronto Raptors)
Head Coach: Doc Rivers

PG: Devin Harris (New Jersey Nets)
SG: Vince Carter (New Jersey Nets)
SF: Paul Pierce (Boston Celtics)
PF: Kevin Garnett (Boston Celtics)
C: Chris Bosh (Toronto Raptors)

Guards: Ray Allen (Boston Celtics), Rajon Rondo (Boston Celtics)
Forwards: Andre Iguodala, (Philadelphia 76ers), David Lee (New York Knicks)
Center: Brook Lopez (New Jersey Nets)
Reserves: Al Harrington (New York Knicks), Andre Miller (Philadelphia 76ers)

Central Division (Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Chicago Bulls, Milwaukee Bucks, Indiana Pacers)
Head Coach: Mike Brown

PG: Derrick Rose (Chicago Bulls)
SG: Michael Redd (Milwaukee Bucks)
SF: LeBron James (Cleveland Cavaliers)
PF: Troy Murphy (Indiana Pacers)
C: Rasheed Wallace (Detroit Pistons)

Guards: Richard Hamilton (Detroit Pistons), Ben Gordon (Chicago Bulls)
Forwards: Danny Granger (Indiana Pacers), Richard Jefferson (Milwaukee Bucks)
Center: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Cleveland Cavaliers)
Reserves: Mo Williams (Cleveland Cavaliers), Allen Iverson (Detroit Pistons)

Southwest Division (San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, New Orleans Hornets, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies)
Head Coach: Greg Popovich

PG: Chris Paul (New Orleans Hornets)
SG: OJ Mayo (Memphis Grizzlies)
SF: Ron Artest (Houston Rockets)
PF: Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs)
C: Yao Ming (Houston Rockets)

Guards: Tony Parker (San Antonio Spurs), Jason Terry (Dallas Mavericks)
Forwards: Rudy Gay (Memphis Grizzlies), Dirk Nowitzki (Dallas Mavericks)
Center: David West (New Orleans Hornets)
Reserves: Josh Howard (Dallas Mavericks), Manu Ginobili (San Antonio Spurs)

Northwest Division (Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, Portland Trailblazers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves)
Head Coach: George Karl

PG: Deron Williams (Utah Jazz)
SG: Brandon Roy (Portland Trailblazers)
SF: Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City Thunder)
PF: Al Jefferson (Minnesota Timberwolves)
C: Mehmet Okur (Utah Jazz)

Guards: Chauncey Billups (Denver Nuggets), Randy Foye (Minnesota Timberwolves)
Forwards: Carmelo Anthony (Denver Nuggets), LaMarcus Aldridge (Portland Trailblazers)
Center: Nene Hilario (Denver Nuggets)
Reserves: Carlos Boozer (Utah Jazz), Paul Millsap (Utah Jazz)

Pacific Division (Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings)
Head Coach: Phil Jackson

PG: Baron Davis (Los Angeles Clippers)
SG: Kobe Bryant (Los Angeles Lakers)
SF: Stephen Jackson (Golden State Warriors)
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire (Phoenix Suns)
C: Shaquille O'Neal (Phoenix Suns)

Guards: Steve Nash (Pheonix Suns), Kevin Martin (Sacramento Kings)
Forwards: Pau Gasol (Los Angeles Lakers), Zach Randolph (Los Angeles Clippers)
Center: Marcus Camby (Los Angeles Clippers)
Reserves: Andrew Bynum (Los Angeles Lakers), Jamal Crawford (Golden State Warriors)

These are my picks. I personally think the Southwest division would be hard to top, but let me know what you think, and who you would switch out. Additionally, let me know if you can think of any methodology for the All-Star break that might work better. Just some tinkering for fun.