Thoughts From a (former) Warriors Season Ticket Holder

Most of my posts will be Warriors related, but i'll try to expand out to the rest of the NBA as best as I can.

It all started from the WE BELIEVE era of the Warriors after 13 years of not making the playoffs and so many bad decisions throughout the whole franchise, Don Nelson with the cast of Baron Davis, Jason Richardson, Monte Ellis, Stephen Jackson, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus, Al Harrington and Andris Biedrins going on an incredible hot streak and sneak into the 8th spot of the playoffs. Around the All-Star Break, the Warriors were not supposed to make the playoffs, which would be what all Warriors fans would accept, but the Indiana Pacers gave us some hope when they traded Stephen Jackson and Al Harrington (plus Sarunas Jasikevicius) for Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy (plus Ike Diogu). Then the biggest upset in NBA Playoffs history happened and the Warriors beat the #1 seed Dallas Mavericks.

Then building upon the sucess of the previous season and the emergence of Monta Ellis, the Warriors traded beloved Jason Richardson to Charlotte to draft Brandon Wright. The Warriors had a good season winning 48 games, but wasn't able to make it to the playoffs because the Western Conference was too good. I went to a game with a friend and checked out a table with sales reps from the Warriors offering the Playoff Push Plan where we would get playoff tickets for making a downpayment on season tickets next year. We thought the Warriors would make the playoffs for sure and then play the Lakers in the fist round which we honestly could have made a thousand dollars in selling our playoff tickets, but they CHOCKED and it went all downhill from here.

Once free agency period hit, Baron Davis opted out of the last year of his contract and signed with the Clippers. The Warriors panicked to find a replacement for him and signed Corey Maggette to a big contract after Elton Brand and Gilbert Arenas refused to sign with the Warriors. The Warriors resigned Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins as their core players for the futures. Then Monta Ellis celebrates his new contract by buying a moped and tears his ankle and misses the first half of the season.

We decided to get a pair of lower level seats behind the backboard which was the cheapest of the lower level with a season ticket holder price of $50 each and a face value of $80 thinking we could be able to sell games at face value and make $60 in profit for each game. This would have been the case if the Warriors were good and playing against a decent team. The Lakers are always schedule to come in to town and we could really make some money from selling those games. I was able to sell my pair for $250 and my friend sold his game for $300. But on the schedule comes midweek games against teams like the Kings, Thunder, Bucks, and Grizzlies where I could not find any buyers at all so I went to those games if I was able to go. The positive thing was that I was able to bring friends to their first Warriors game, but I could have bought similiar tickets from other season ticket holders or ticket brokers on craigslist for $20 instead of my cost of $50 or bought upper level tickets for $8. One of the perks that we got was to sit coutside at a pre-game shootaround as they Toronto players warmed up. That was an awesome experience as I got a "whats-up" from Jamario Moon, a thumbs up from Jose Calderon and a hand slap with Nathan Jawai. I yelled at Chris Bosh, but he didn't turn his head to look over at us. I went to a total of 10 games this past year and most of those games were losses.

In the end, I lost money by going to the games and eating most the costs for the people I took to the game so I will not renew my season ticket for next year even though they lowered the costs of our seat to $38 a game instead of $50 since the Warriors aren't going to get better anytime soon, even if they make the trade for Amare.

New Spurs Blog

So I'm still going to be fairly active here over the summer offseason, but I definitely am moving towards doing more specifically Spurs related blogging. Please check it out.

Taking the Next Step: Part 3

Cleveland Cavaliers
66-16 in 2008-2009
Lost to Orlando 4-2 in Eastern Conference Finals

I'm not really picking any particular order to do these in. Anyways, next on my list is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who after having a league best record, and numerous pundits lauding them the up and coming team, were embarrassingly and soundly routed by a superior Orlando Magic squad. Obviously Mo Williams wasn't enough, not enough to stop Dwight Howard from yanking the welcome mat to the Finals out from under the MVP. So, obviously things had to be done, and things were done, are they the right things though?

Shaq

The first obvious big move was to move the contracts of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic for that of Shaquille O'Neal. Wallace and Pavlovic would then be traded and bought out respectively, where ever they do end up. How does this work though? Is this just another trigger happy reaction on the part of Danny Ferry to make a big splash? My gut instinct tells me yes. Why is that? Well, simply put, for all the low-post help that LeBron needs, Cleveland is a team built on defense. While Shaq provides a more legitimate post presence than say Zydrunas Ilgauskas, he definitely is a significant defensive downgrade from Ben Wallace. Perhaps Shaq's offensive contributions overcome any loss of Ben Wallace on the defensive end, okay, I can live with that. However, Cleveland was decimated by Orlando's high pick-and-roll with Hedo Turkoglu and Dwight Howard. So what does Danny Ferry do? Trades for one of the worst pick-and-roll defenders ever? Maybe Hedo's not coming back with Dwight next season, but Jameer Nelson is, equally effective if not more so. Now you throw on a 325 lb colossus that won't show on the guard? A guard whose effective field goal percentage was in the mid 50s and whose true shooting percentage was like 61%? Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

Okay, perhaps I'm making too big of a deal about this, I mean, the Cavs might not even play the Magic again in the post season, but wouldn't it make sense to plan for the reigning Eastern Conference champions to be right back in the Eastern Conference Finals? For all the problems that having Shaq on the team does portend (especially on the defensive end for a defensive minded team like the Cavs), it does solve the problem of an interior presence. For all the problems both on and off the court that Shaq brings, he at the very least is a force in the paint, and one of the better passing big men in the league. While he won't dominate anymore, you can still probably expect him to put up comparable numbers to the 17.8 points and 8.4 rebounds per game that he did last season. Having Shaq platoon time with Zydrunas Ilgauskas ensures that the Cavs will always have an above-average, albeit old, big man in the pivot at all times of the game. Furthermore, since Shaq is an expiring contract, he's minimal risk, and will enable the Cavs to still be players in the long-awaited 2010 free agency. The biggest problem would be if the Shaq thing doesn't work out and LeBron gets fed up with Cleveland and bolts for New York or something.

Now that Anderson Varejao has opted out, the roster probably looks something like this:

PG - Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson
SG - Delonte West
SF - LeBron James, Tarence Kinsey
PF - JJ Hickson, Darnell Jackson, Jawad Williams
C - Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Unless for some reason Mike Brown decides to start starting big Z at the PF spot that's one of the most obvious needs there is. Additionally, they need a backup wing. Cavs had shown interest in Charlie Villanueva, but they wouldn't have the resources to bid against the massive amounts of cap space that Detroit seems willing to spend on him. With pretty much only the MLE available to spend, the Cavs will definitely have to bolster their roster significantly as they lost significant depth with the trading of Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic as well as the expiring contract of Wally Sczerbiak.

Some murmurs around have Lamar Odom being takeable at the MLE simply because Lakers will have to overpay to keep Trevor Ariza. It's hard to imagine that a talent like Odom would fall to just a simple MLE, but it'd be a dream come true for the Cavs should it happen. Odom is a versatile PF who can score like a SF but also rebounds well. Within the Cavs system he wouldn't have the pressure of being a go-to guy, especially with both LeBron and Shaq in the picture. He's versatile not only offensively but defensively as well and would add a ton of length to the frontcourt. Further down the list, were I Danny Ferry, I'd look at Chris Wilcox for cheap, or even Shawn Marion.

In terms of wing players, I'd keep an eye open on vets like Anthony Parker or Dahntay Jones or Flip Murray. Backup wings are generally pretty easy to come by. Cavs still lack a major scoring punch next to LeBron, and the ideal position for someone like that would be the PF slot on this Cavs roster. We'll see what happens here.

Welcoming....

I'd like to take this opportunity to welcome a new contributor to Poor Man's GM! Please welcome, jfoon131! He'll be (hopefully) posting stuff up as well, maybe it'll be a good break from my normal output. Welcome!

Sports Science Isn't Science

At least not when it comes to basketball.

The other day I found this video via Ball Don't Lie's 10-Man Rotation.



It was a feature trying to debunk the idea that Shaq's poor free throw percentage was due to his height and the size of his hands. The feature brought in Lakers' guard Sasha Vujacic and had him shoot a bunch of free throws, and then tried to distract him while he's shooting. Vujacic, for what it's worth, is a good free-throw shooter (career 88%), and naturally was sinking anywhere between 8 of 10 to 10 of 10 freethrows. To "simulate" Shaq-like conditions, the guys on the show give Vujacic stilts (the equivalent of 6 inch tin cans tied to his feet) and rubber gloves (basically) the size of Shaq's hands. Then they blindfold Vujacic, and he still sinks 8 of 10 free throws. Myth of size and height obviously debunked, right? Wrong.

If you carefully watch Vujacic shooting the free throws with the gloves, you'll notice that the gloves flop around a lot on his release because his hands obviously don't fit the glove. Now, I'm not saying by any means that Shaq's supposed to be a great free throw shooter if the hoop were 6 inches higher and the ball twice as large, I mean, his form is horrible. However, the simulation run on Sports Science does nothing to really simulate the conditions Shaq shoots free throws under. Firstly, the stilts, while they raise Vujacic to Shaq's height, don't really simulate what Shaq's body experiences when he's shooting a free throw. As you see with good free thow shooters, the form encompasses the entire body, while there is a change from the different height you shoot the ball at, it's not necessarily the most accurate emulation, though perhaps, not much can be done with that.

My biggest beef with the experiment is the hands. Obviously if you make Shaq sized gloves, and put any other basketball player's hands into them, they're not going to fit, there's going to (generally) be a lot of space between where a normal (in this case Vujacic's) basketball player's hands end and where Shaq's end. Therefore, when Vujacic shoots the ball, the ball is still resting on his hand, so he shoots it like he would normally shoot the ball, there's just a big rubber glove between the ball and his hand. However, the way the ball rests and the release are all the same as if he shot the ball from his own hands. I mean, if I tie a piece of paper onto my hand because Shaq's hand is the size of the same as that piece of paper, and hold the ball, do I know what it's like for Shaq to hold a basketball? While height may not be a huge factor (Pau Gasol is about the same height and a much better free throw shooter and Yao Ming is taller and also a much better shooter), it doesn't necessarily take into account hand size and strength. I can't say how big Shaq's hands are for sure but I would imagine that if your hands really were as big as Shaq's, then you might have problems shooting a ball. The more accurate test would have been to shrink the hoop and the ball to a size where Sasha Vujacic would have been the equivalent of Shaq on the court, then see if that affects it. Shaq may not be a great free throw shooter, even if he were smaller, but nonetheless, this video does nothing to debunk his normal excuse of size.

From my experience (I'm 6-0 and can kind of palm a basketball) it's harder to shoot a foam nerf ball about the size of a softball on a 7 foot nerf hoop than it is to shoot an NBA size regulation basketball on a 10 foot hoop. Maybe it makes a difference. Either way, the video does nothing except validate that Vujacic can shoot free throws in circus situations. So if you want to win a stuffed animal from a carnival, bring Sasha with you.

Taking the Next Step: Part 2

Orlando Magic
59-23 in 2008-2009
Lost to LA Lakers 4-1 in NBA Finals

Orlando surprised a lot of people (not me though) by making their way to the NBA Finals past the defending champs in Boston and then the Eastern Conference favorites of LeBron and co in Cleveland. Upon reaching the big stage, they ran up against Western Conference powerhouse of the Los Angeles Lakers, where they were quickly downed in 5 games. Without a draft pick in a weak draft, and with little flexibility in their payroll, the Magic needed to make a change via trade, and while the offseason is still young, Magic have already made a good start in coming back as strong favorites in the East.

Vince Carter

The big deal that Otis Smith ended up landing to help the Magic, especially in late-game situations was a major trade of Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson. Despite being already 32, Vince Carter has shown that he still has game, averaging a solid 20.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game last season. A solid addition to the strong core Orlando already has based around Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson. While Carter's contract is fairly unattractive, making upwards of $33 million over the next two seasons, with an $18 million team option in the 2011-2012 season. However, given the inflexibility of Orlando's payroll situation, it's a sacrifice that has to be made to add a player of Carter's caliber. The addition of another All-Star takes pressure off of the others on the roster already, and is mutually beneficial for both Carter and the rest of the Magic. It helps too that Carter has always wanted to play for Orlando (which is near his hometown).

Ryan Anderson

Ryan Anderson isn't exactly the name that pops to mind when you think of a player worth trading for, but at the very least, the Magic do get some youth to work with in return for sending Courtney Lee up to New Jersey. In essence, the Magic and Nets just swapped last year's draft picks (Nets drafted Anderson at number 21 and the Magic Lee at 22). Ben Q at Third Quarter Collapse does an apt analysis of what Ryan Anderson brings to the floor. As Ben Q points out, DraftExpress lists Ryan Anderson to have the upside of Troy Murphy, and potentially be as big of a dud as Brian Cook. Which is to say, that he'll probably end up somewhere in the middle, so to speak. At the very least Anderson is a big body that can sop up minutes at the backup PF spot and continue to spread the floor. This would be especially useful should Stan Van Gundy want at points in time to move Rashard Lewis back to SF slot and have a longer lineup.

The Free Agent Situation

Well, the Magic really only have the MLE to work with (somewhere between $5 million and $6 million) in order to fill their remaining roster slots. However, with potentially two big names on their way out, this could prove to be an interesting (and more difficult) situation for the Magic. First, is the situation with Hedo Turkoglu. Hedo has already opted out of his contract, and with the addition Carter's salary, it would be hard for the Magic to resign Hedo for much more than what he makes now. While Hedo has expressed interest in returning to the Magic, it's not certain whether he would opt for a 5 year $35 million deal in Orlando over something closer to a 5 year $50 million deal or something from someone like Portland with cap space. However, that's what Carter was for, worst case, he's an upgrade from Hedo, best case, he's a super addition and the Magic easily boast the best starting lineup in the entire league. Upgrade from Hedo? Really? I'm sure several Magic fans are wondering about that. Well here's how it breaks down, if we take their last season as indicative of what their 2009-2010 performance will be:

Per 36		FG%		3pt%		PTS		RBDS		ASSTS		STLS		BLKS		TOS
Player A		43.7%		38.5%		20.8		5.1		4.7		1.0		0.5		2.1
Player B		41.3%		35.6%		16.8		5.3		4.9		0.8		0.2		2.8

Who would you rather take? Well, save for 0.2 assists and 0.2 rebounds, player A is obviously better. For those of you that haven't guessed, Player A is Vince Carter, Player B is Hedo Turkoglu. Given that Turkoglu is a 6-10 small forward, you would expect him to rebound better than a 6-6 shooting guard, I'm not going to say it's a knock against Hedo but more lean towards the direction that Vince Carter is just that good of a player.

The second issue would be the issue of Marcin Gortat, who is an excellent backup big man. Let's look at some numbers first:

Per 36		FG%		PTS		RBDS		ASSTS		STLS		BLKS		TOS
Player A		54.8%		11.1		10.9		0.8		1.0		4.3		1.7
Player B		57.2%		10.9		13.0		0.6		0.8		2.4		1.1
Player C		40.0%		12.1		10.9		1.3		1.2		2.4		2.4

Comparatively, Player A looks to be the strongest player, though the rebounding rate and field goal percentage of Player B is significantly improved, the block rate of Player A is just phenomenal. Nonetheless, players A and B are both fairly comparable. Player A is Chris Andersen last season, why Chris Andersen? Well, DraftExpress lists him as Gortat's upside, as you may have guessed, Player B is Marcin Gortat, Player C, is Chris Andersen in his 2nd year, as Marcin Gortat was last season. Obviously Gortat will command some attention as one of the better big men in a league where it's difficult to find such talent, so it's possible that they would not be able to retain him, as he currently is had for the extraordinarily cheap salary of $700k.

Should the Magic retain both Turkoglu and Gortat (by some miracle) their lineup would look something like:

PG- Jameer Nelson, Anthony Johnson
SG- Vince Carter, JJ Redick
SF- Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus
PF- Rashard Lewis, Ryan Anderson
C- Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat

However, if the Magic should lose out on keeping either or both of Hedo and Gortat, then I would presume Pietrus would slide to the starting SF spot and there would be holes at both the backup center and SF slots.

Possible Solutions

Well, there isn't a whole lot for the Magic to work with in terms of free agency, and they don't have a whole lot to trade with, so it'd be hard to figure out anything major. Likely, after all is said and done, the Magic will only have what's leftover from the remainder of the pickings from free agency, especially as they no longer really have any tradeable assets. I believe that should Hedo be lost to free agency, that Otis Smith should make a priority of re-signing Gortat, as it's easier to facilitate a solution at the SF position than it is to find a quality big man.

The Backup Center

There really aren't a whole lot of options when it comes to finding a solid backup big man for cheap. The Magic could always go back to Adonal Foyle, however, that's a major downgrade from the production that Gortat brings. Other names that come to mind that wouldn't be too expensive may possibly be Rasho Nesterocvic or Chris Mihm, possibly Zaza Pachulia as well. Ideally though, if I were the Magic, I would try to keep Marcin Gortat.

The Small Forward Issue

Since Hedo has opted out, the question ends up being where he will sign. If he does end up signing somewhere other than Orlando then the feasible solution would be to slide Pietrus to the starting SF slot as something of a defensive specialist (think Bruce Bowen on the Spurs) and find a legitimate backup SF, then finding someone via free agency to back him up. One name that possibly comes to mind would be Marquis Daniels, as the Pacers have let him walk. Daniels, while not a great 3 point shooter, does add solid defense and scoring off the bench. The question would be how well he embraces his role, especially given his performance last season in the wake of injuries to both Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger. The second question would be how cheap he could be had for. Ime Udoka and Matt Barnes are other names that pop to mind.

However, there is one other solution that I could possibly think of. That would be finding a legitimate starting PF that can play alongside Dwight Howard and sliding Rashard Lewis back to the SF slot, having Mickael Pietrus be the first man off the bench as a defensive stopper (think James Posey on the Celtics). Again the question would be whether or not Otis Smith could command such talent given the inflexibility of the budget, since he has to sign multiple players with such a limited amount of money. However, should Hedo walk, I would not be opposed to trying for someone like Antonio McDyess or Paul Millsap, or possibly even Drew Gooden.

Other Minor Issues

I think that while Anthony Johnson is an adequate backup point guard, I wouldn't mind trying to upgrade or bring in some young talent to develop as the 11th, 12th, or 13th man on the squad to fill out the roster.

That's basically my take on the Magic moving forward.