Why all the big fuss?

Maybe I'm being cynical, maybe I'm a little jaded.  Maybe it's because I live in Seattle and frankly I should be the one going to games and raving about Kevin Durant, which causes me to be predispositioned to dislike the city that stole our team.  I'm a little confused as to how the Thunder all of sudden are considered contenders.  Don't get me wrong, I know they're good.  Are they really THAT good though?  As good as the Lakers?  As good as the Celtics?  The Magic?  Let's compare:

	THUNDER	LAKERS	CELTICS	MAGIC
PG	Russell Westbrook	Derek Fisher	Rajon Rondo	Jameer Nelson
SG	Thabo Sefalosha	Kobe Bryant	Ray Allen	Vince Carter
SF	Kevin Durant	Ron Artest	Paul Pierce	Quentin Richardson
PF	Jeff Green	Pau Gasol	Kevin Garnett	Rashard Lewis
C	Nenad Kristic	Andrew Bynum	Kendrick Perkins	Dwight Howard
Bench	Eric Maynor	Steve Blake	Nate Robinson	Chris Duhon
	James Harden	Shannon Brown	Delonte West	J.J. Redick
	Morris Peterson	Matt Barnes	Marquis Daniels	Mickael Pietrus
	Nick Collison	Lamar Odom	Jermaine O'Neal	Brandon Bass
	Serge Ibaka	Theo Ratliff	Shaquille O'Neal	Marcin Gortat
	Cole Aldrich	Luke Walton	Glen Davis	Ryan Anderson
	D.J. White	Sasha Vujacic	Semih Erden	Daniel Orton

I honestly can't say that the Thunder roster looks significantly better than any of the "contenders" out there, well, let's call them definitive contenders, as these three teams are the ones that made the Finals in the last two seasons.  I like the Thunder roster but not enough to call them contenders.  Am I short-selling Kevin Durant?  Maybe, but frankly, a single player doesn't win titles.  Can we definitively say that these OKC Thunder are definitively better than... say the 2009-2010 Cleveland Cavaliers?

	THUNDER	2009/2010 CAVS
PG	Russell Westbrook	Mo Williams
SG	Thabo Sefalosha	Delonte West
SF	Kevin Durant	LeBron James
PF	Jeff Green	Antawn Jamison
C	Nenad Kristic	Shaquille O'Neal
Bench	Eric Maynor	Daniel Gibson
	James Harden	Anthony Parker
	Morris Peterson	Jamario Moon
	Nick Collison	Anderson Varejao
	Serge Ibaka	Zydrunas Ilgauskas
	Cole Aldrich	J.J. Hickson
	D.J. White	Jawad Williams

Really?  Let's assume that LeBron and Durant are a wash.  I know Westbrook is a significant upgrade over Williams, and the 2009/2010 Cavs dealt with a plethora of injury and chemistry issues, but really?  Can we say that the OKC is significantly better?  Is Jeff Green better than Antawn Jamison?

Per Game:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Jeff Green	2009-10	23	82	82	37.1	5.9	13	0.453	1.3	3.8	0.333	2	2.7	0.74	1.4	4.6	6	1.6	1.3	0.9	1.6	2.7	15.1
2	Antawn Jamison	2009-10	33	66	64	36.5	7.2	15.7	0.461	1.3	3.7	0.344	2.9	4.5	0.647	2.1	6.3	8.4	1.3	1.1	0.3	1.4	2.7	18.7

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Jeff Green	2009-10	23	82	82	3043	5.7	12.7	0.453	1.2	3.7	0.333	2	2.6	0.74	1.3	4.5	5.8	1.6	1.2	0.9	1.6	2.6	14.7
2	Antawn Jamison	2009-10	33	66	64	2406	7.2	15.5	0.461	1.3	3.7	0.344	2.9	4.5	0.647	2	6.3	8.3	1.3	1.1	0.3	1.4	2.7	18.5

Well... they're pretty comparable, but Jamison shoots better, rebounds better, scores more, and gets to the line more.  Hrm...  They lost 4-2 to Boston in the Conference Semi-Finals.  A lot of people thought LeBron could do it, but I was pretty skeptical as to actually how good the team actually was, I see the same case here.  Sure Durant might be awesome, but at best I don't see that he's better than LeBron awesome.


Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Kevin Durant	2009-10	21	82	82	3239	8.8	18.5	0.476	1.4	3.9	0.365	8.4	9.3	0.9	1.2	5.8	6.9	2.6	1.2	0.9	3	1.9	27.5
2	LeBron James	2009-10	25	76	76	2966	9.3	18.5	0.503	1.6	4.7	0.333	7.2	9.4	0.767	0.9	5.9	6.7	7.9	1.5	0.9	3.2	1.4	27.4

Now, honestly, they're about the same, except LeBron passes the ball better.  Aside from that most of the stats are fairly comparable.  With that then, I can't say that the Thunder are significantly better than any solid playoff team, I mean, statistically you can't really even say he's significantly better than Melo::

Per 36

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Carmelo Anthony	2009-10	25	69	69	2634	9.4	20.5	0.458	0.8	2.6	0.316	6.9	8.4	0.83	2.1	4.1	6.2	3	1.2	0.4	2.9	3.1	26.6
2	Kevin Durant	2009-10	21	82	82	3239	8.8	18.5	0.476	1.4	3.9	0.365	8.4	9.3	0.9	1.2	5.8	6.9	2.6	1.2	0.9	3	1.9	27.5

While Melo scores less on more shots, he's also a way better offensive rebounder, and frankly, there isn't enough of a differentiation between them to definitively declare one better than the other, at least statistically speaking.  Sure most of us (GMs and their assistants included) like Durant more than Melo, but that doesn't mean a whole lot when the tip-off whistle is blown.  I really don't buy the whole hype about how Thunder, if they aren't contenders are the only ones that can take down the Lakers, sure overall they might match up okay against the defending champs, but I certainly don't think they have a significantly better shot than anyone else in the West.  Why?  Their frontcourt is pretty atrocious.  Jeff Green is not a PF and if he is, he's at best a harder-working Al Harrington.  And I would take an old Shaq and Big Z over Nenad Kristic and Serge Ibaka, I don't care if Ibaka is supposed to have a "breakout" season.  What they have to their advantage is youth and thereby health, something some of the more seasoned teams cannot boast as much of, but seriously?  If the Lakers appear to be head and shoulders above the rest of the West does that mean that Thunder are a head above the rest?  I think not:

	THUNDER	SPURS	MAVERICKS	BLAZERS	NUGGETS	JAZZ
PG	Russell Westbrook	Tony Parker	Jason Kidd	Andre Miller	Chauncey Billups	Deron Willaims
SG	Thabo Sefalosha	Manu Ginobili	Caron Butler	Brandon Roy	Arron Afflalo	Raja Bell
SF	Kevin Durant	Richard Jefferson	Shawn Marion	Nicolas Batum	Carmelo Anthony	Andrei Kirilenko
PF	Jeff Green	DeJuan Blair	Dirk Nowitzki	LaMarcus Aldridge	Kenyon Martin	Al Jefferson
C	Nenad Kristic	Tim Duncan	Brendan Haywood	Greg Oden	Nene Hilario	Mehmet Okur
Bench	Eric Maynor	George Hill	J.J. Barea	Wesley Matthews	Ty Lawson	Earl Watson
	James Harden	James Anderson	Jason Terry	Rudy Fernandez	J.R. Smith	C.J. Miles
	Morris Peterson	Bobby Simmons	DeShawn Stevenson	Dante Cunningham	Gary Forbes	Gordon Hayward
	Nick Collison	Antonio McDyess	Ian Mahinmi	Marcus Camby	Al Harrington	Paul Millsap
	Serge Ibaka	Tiago Splitter	Tyson Chandler	Joel Przybilla	Chris Andersen	Francisco Elson
	Cole Aldrich	Matt Bonner	Rodrigue Beaubois	Armon Johnson	Renaldo Balkman	Kyrylo Fesenko
	D.J. White	Gary Neal	Dominique Jones	Fabricio Oberto	Shelden Williams	Jeremy Evans

Maybe it's me, but while Durant would be the SF I'd want the most on my roster, I can't say that Westbrook is someone I'd pick over Kidd, Parker, Billups, and definitely not Deron Williams.  Every team except maybe the Nuggets has a more desirable PF, and every other team has actually a more desirable frontcourt pairing and a comparably deep bench.  While the Thunder may have surprised us last season with a strong performance, I can't say with confidence that they can beat any of the other five leading Western Conference teams not called the Lakers, not in a 7 game series.

Team	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	To	Pf	Dreb	Oreb	Fgm-a	Pct	3gm-a	Pct	Ftm-a	Pct	Eff	Deff
Utah	104.5	41.9	26.4	7.9	4.8	14.4	23.1	31.3	10.7	39.2-80.1	0.49	5.5-15.0	0.365	20.6-27.9	0.739	123	15
Orlando	101.9	42.8	19.3	6.3	5.5	13.5	20.2	33	9.8	36.1-76.9	0.469	10.2-27.3	0.374	19.5-27.1	0.72	113.8	14.2
Boston	98	38.7	23	8.4	4.8	13.9	22.7	30	8.8	36.4-76.5	0.476	6.0-17.1	0.351	19.1-25.6	0.748	112.6	11.9
Dallas	101.4	41.8	23.1	7.5	5.4	12.4	19.3	31.6	10.3	38.0-82.2	0.462	6.8-18.3	0.369	18.6-22.8	0.814	118.4	10
Oklahoma City	101	43.5	19.7	7.7	5.9	14	21.4	31.8	11.7	36.9-80.7	0.457	5.1-15.2	0.337	22.0-27.3	0.807	114.7	9.6
San Antonio	100.8	42.6	22	6.2	4.6	12.9	20.4	31.8	10.7	38.2-80.9	0.472	6.5-18.4	0.356	17.9-24.3	0.735	114.1	8.9
L.A.Lakers	101.6	44	20.8	7	5.1	12.8	20.2	31.9	12.1	38.1-83.2	0.458	6.6-19.4	0.338	18.8-24.6	0.763	114.8	7.9
Portland	97.8	40	20.4	6.3	4.3	11.5	21.1	28.9	11.1	36.0-78.6	0.459	6.0-16.9	0.356	19.7-25.0	0.786	109.4	6.5
Denver	106.6	41.3	20.8	8.1	5.1	13.5	23.1	30.4	10.8	38.0-81.2	0.468	6.6-18.5	0.359	23.9-31.0	0.772	118.2	5

Based on their overall team metrics, while I'm surprised they out-rebounded everybody, I can't really say they particularly stand out enough to warrant the sudden hype.  Frankly, I don't find them to be significantly better than any playoff/fringe playoff team save for the presence of Durant.

	THUNDER	ROCKETS	HAWKS
PG	Russell Westbrook	Aaron Brooks	Mike Bibby
SG	Thabo Sefalosha	Kevin Martin	Joe Johnson
SF	Kevin Durant	Shane Battier	Marvin Williams
PF	Jeff Green	Luis Scola	Josh Smith
C	Nenad Kristic	Yao Ming	Al Horford
Bench	Eric Maynor	Kyle Lowry	Jeff Teague
	James Harden	Courtney Lee	Jamal Crawford
	Morris Peterson	Chase Budinger	Mo Evans
	Nick Collison	Chuck Hayes	Etan Thomas
	Serge Ibaka	Brad Miller	Zaza Pachulia
	Cole Aldrich	Jordan Hill	Jordan Crawford
	D.J. White	Jermaine Taylor	Pape Sy

Sure, it's a great Cinderella story, but hey so were the Hornets in 2008, and look at them now.  Granted, the Thunder are in better shape than the Hornets, but really?  Contenders?  Really?  Seriously people, I know they're a fun team to watch, but let's be realistic.  I mean, a lot of this is coming from the same people who said Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry would make a monstrous frontcourt.