Friday, September 26, 2008

Old Vets vs Young Guns

I was thinking what if I were to make two 12 man squads of the best players currently 30 and over and placed them against the best players 25 and under. I know that demographic automatically leaves out great players like Kobe, LeBron, Melo, T-Mac, Elton Brand, Baron Davis, a good number of players in their prime from the ages of 24-30, I just wanted the extremes. It's obvious that I've been playing too much NBA Live or 2k8. That being said, let's see how it works out.

Over 30

Starting 5:
PG- Steve Nash
SG- Manu Ginobili
SF- Paul Pierce
PF- Kevin Garnett
C- Tim Duncan

Off the bench
Guards: Ray Allen, Allen Iverson, Vince Carter, Jason Kidd
Forwards: Bruce Bowen, Antawn Jamison
Centers: Rasheed Wallace

Picking what I believe the be the premier 30 and over players (born before 1978) it's a very interesting mix. Much more a run and gun team than I would've expected. If I were to make a squad bigger than the normal 12 man rotation then I might have been inclined to include players like Richard Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, and maybe even Shaq or James Posey. Kobe and Marion just turned 30 so I kind of lucked out there on the roster. I used the 1978 deadline and I know, that ekes out several quality players like Kobe, Rashard Lewis, Elton Brand, Baron Davis, and Hedo Turkoglu, but that's just how it is. On the other side I'll likely eke out a lot of good players too, like Gilbert Arenas, Dwayne Wade, and such. I just kind of wanted to look at the extremes.

23&under

Starting 5:
PG- Chris Paul
SG- Rudy Fernandez
SF- Luol Deng
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge
C- Dwight Howard

Off the bench
Guards: Monta Ellis, Louis Williams
Forwards: Josh Smith, Rudy Gay, Kevin Durant
Centers: Greg Oden, Al Horford

Granted none of us have ever seen Oden play except in college, his physical condition is said to be good enough that everyone is putting him up there, including me. This team is still also pretty small in terms of frontcourt size, but they do have two true centers in Howard and Oden, as opposed to PF/Cs in Sheed and Duncan. Still it'd at the very least be a very exciting team to watch.

I'll come out and post who I think would win, but let's hear what you have to say. Who would win? Who would you swap out of the roster? For who? etc... etc...

Season Preview: Phoenix Suns

On with the show!

Starting 5:
PG- Steve Nash
SG- Raja Bell
SF- Grant Hill
PF- Amare Stoudemire
C- Shaquille O'Neal

Off the bench
Guards: Leandro Barbosa, Goran Dragic, Sean Singletary
Forwards: Boris Diaw, Matt Barnes, Alando Tucker, Louis Amundson
Centers: Robin Lopez

There are a couple numbers that are going to be pretty important this year for Phoenix. Those numbers are 35 and 37. Why? Those are the respective ages of Steve Nash and Shaquille O'Neal (and Grant Hill). As time progresses Nash looks like another one of those players that are awesome, but never won a ring. That being said, the addition of coach Terry Porter will indeed be something of a change. The idea is that he does hopefully what Rick Adleman did in Houston, which was leave the defense in place and implement a more efficient offense. In this case, Porter would be wise to retain the effective D'Antoni offense that works so well centered around Nash and Stoudemire, but to add a little more defensive tenacity.

Grant Hill's health is another major unknown, but mitigated somewhat by the addition of Matt Barnes. While Barnes won't necessarily be a defensive solution, should Hill be injured, Barnes would fill in nicely, and perhaps even take the starting spot from Hill eventually. Having played run-and-gun with the Warriors, Barnes shouldn't have much of a problem fitting into the system, and should he do as well as he did two seasons ago, I can see him cracking the rotation very frequently. Nash, Bell, Barbosa, Diaw, and Stoudemire constitute the core of the team since their D'Antoni days, and I look for them to contribute as they always have. Despite Stoudemire having a sprained ankle, I see him to produce even better this season, having a lot of the low-post load taken off him by Shaq, and reportedly in the best shape ever. The biggest question-mark of that core will once again be Diaw, who showed flashes of his former potential during one game against the Spurs in the previous post-season. However, his lack of consistency and effort continually bothers me. Barbosa continues to be the monster scorer off the bench and Nash a countinual source of offensive efficiency in scoring and assists, while also continuing to have a large number of turnovers. Bell will once again be the defensive stopper and 3 pt specialist. I look for Shaq to once again do better in rebounding, and hopefully come into camp in better shape.

The remaining players are somewhat unknown. Goran Dragic is supposed to be the Nash backup and eventual replacement. The Slovenian guard is quick and a good penetrator, don't see much of him passing, his game is similar I think to that of Leandro Barbosa, but he says he's modelling it after Tony Parker. Robin Lopez is a high energy and supposedly defensive specialist of the Stanford twins, which right now to me, makes him a poor man's Anderson Varejao, hair and all.

They'll be competitive, I think they'll get 50 wins maybe, but they won't get very far, the West has just become too competitive.

Season Preview: Washington Wizards

So, after my monstrous tirade on how Al Harrington keeps the Warriors from improving via trade, I considered going into various rants about what could make teams better, here and there, but then I realized I'd just be whining about how Lamar Odom has a fat contract, how Shawn Marion is a headcase, how there are no good players available on the market, etc.. So I decided, that for now, we'll go back to our look into the upcoming 2008-2009 season.

Washington Wizards

Starting 5:
PG- Gilbert Arenas
SG- DeShawn Stevenson
SF- Caron Butler
PF- Antawn Jamison
C- Brendan Haywood

Off the bench
Guards: Antonio Daniels, Juan Dixon, Dee Brown
Forwards: Andray Blatche, Nick Young, Darius Songaila
Centers: Etan Thomas, JaVale McGee, Oleksiy Pecherov

I've always liked how this team looks on paper, of course, it's looked the same for at least the past 2 or 3 seasons, the only difference being namely shifting of Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood in and out of the starting 5. The team so far has struggled to look good beyond "on paper", becoming one of those perennial first round exit teams. For at least the past two seasons I can point to the issue of injury, the Big 3; Arenas, Butler, and Jamison, have consistently failed to be on the floor at the same time, especially during playoffs. If it's not Gilbert Arenas's knee, then it's some injury to Caron Butler's back or Antawn Jamison's foot or something. It's always as soon as one of them gets back too, funny how that works out.

I was almost tempted to put Antonio Daniels in as the starter, in light of the announcement that Gilbert Arenas is getting another operation on his knee and will be out at least 3 months. All Wizards fans have their fingers crossed that Agent Zero will make it back in time to help carry the Wizards into and through the playoffs. That aside, I like the overall look of this team, I think Caron Butler ranks among the top 5 small forwards in the league, proven to be a dynamic scorer and has an amazing overall game, and really emerged as the true star of the Wizards. Jamison's game has improved greatly as well, contributing nightly a 20-10 line. His ability to not only rebound, but spread the floor with his range adds a lot to the game.

There are 3 other pleasant surprises from last season; Andray Blatche, Nick Young, and Brendan Haywood. We'll start with Haywood. With Etan Thomas out the season undergoing heart surgery, Haywood really stepped up into the starting role. He had a fair share of double-double nights and gets his fair share of blocks, putting up very solid numbers for a league short on big men. When Haywood suffered injury midway through the season Andray Blatche emerged as a key player, and competed with Haywood through the rest of the season for playing time. Nick Young has also developed into a solid reserve as well. The key to this team relies again on the Big 3 being healthy though.

Health issues aside, they're easly into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. I predict a 46-48 win season, and probably another first round exit. After the past couple of seasons, I really think this team needs to change the look of things before they go any further.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

The Problem with Al Harrington

We interrupt our regular Season Previews with something that's kind of been rolling around in my mind. I've been really stoked to get some of my trade proposals looked at by the NBA blogosphere via Gregory Boome, author of the NBA blog Peninsula is Mightier, through his new blog The Trade Journal. At least one of them has merit I suppose, I can understand the reservations about the Odom-Wallace trade, but at least some legit NBA people think that some of my ideas make sense. With that, I've been thinking about various ways to make various teams better, some teams don't really need it, like Portland, and some teams have a lot of various constraints of a more financial nature, like the Lakers. Being that the closest team I can go watch would be the Warriors, I decided that I'd take a look at how we might get this team better, and so I've been throwing people and names and ideas around to see what would work short of simply adding salary by trying to sign some free agent (like Ruben Patterson).

In short, nothing works. I blame Al Harrington.

Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against Al Harrington, except that his skill sets are somewhat redundant, everywhere. He's also got a pretty hefty price tag on him, $9M next year. That makes him a little hard to trade. It's not really much of a secret that Don Nelson really doesn't like Harrington. He was supposed to be their answer in the post next to Biedrins, he's a pretty proficient scorer in the post, when he's actually in the paint, he's got some nice moves, but he likes the 3 ball too much, and like everyone that has the range to do so on the Warriors, is content to settle in a corner and jack up shots whenever he touches the ball. He's like a PF with SF skills or an SF with PF size, kind of like Lamar Odom, except, he can shoot, and Lamar Odom rebounds better. I don't know if the crazy fluctuations in playing time have anything to do with it, but he is only averaging 5.4 rebounds per game. Not horrible, but not exactly the kind of numbers that I'd want my PF to be putting up. He's a SF/PF that I'd personally rather play as a small forward, something of a poor man's Rashard Lewis. Ok, so I'm not ragging on Harrington all day, the guy's got game, he could thrive in the Warriors system if he weren't a SF/PF/C, meaning that he plays mostly PF and C. I mean, the Warriors have a system for shutting down big men like Yao, utilizing Harrington, but still, I think he'd thrive more in the SF position. In short, he's rather redundant next to Corey Maggette and Stephen Jackson, he's just not doing what he's supposed on the team.

So what's the problem? Harrington's not bad as trade bait right? You'd think so, but it's actually fairly hard to find someone who needs someone like Harrington who'd be willing to part with someone that would fit the Warriors. There's no real point in trading Harrington to dump salary, he's got an expiring contract, so you could just wait the year. Let's think about the Warriors' needs first and foremost, a big man that can play the post (ok Harrington can do that, kind of, so maybe we should say a big man that will play the post) and rebound or a point guard that can handle the ball.

Let me explain the PG part a little, the legit PF portion is pretty straight-forward, with Monta Ellis out, ideally people would like for someone a little more reliable than Marcus Williams, maybe Williams proves us wrong. With Monta healthy, front office expressed interest in Monta being the PG of the future, I think that'd be as big of a mistake as Denver playing Allen Iverson or Miami playing Dwayne Wade as a PG, which they've done before. Monta needs to focus on what Monta does best, that is, score. Not to say he'd make a bad PG, if you recall, Iverson and Wade both had fairly good stints as PGs, but playing at the 1 and running the team took away from their biggest contribution to the team, scoring. The reason Warriors have been so successful the last two seasons has been because Baron Davis is the idea PG next to Monta, he's big enough to guard the 2 and he shoots enough to warrant himself a perimeter threat. The only other big name guards that might play well next to Monta would be like Brandon Roy, Deron Williams, or Chauncey Billups, if he took the ball up faster. I think Detroit would be pretty stupid to do a straight up Billups for Harrington swap, as I don't think Stuckey is ready to take over the team quite yet. A healthy Shaun Livingston may have been another option, but I don't know that the Clippers would've given up a healthy Shaun Livingston, though arguably if the Clippers still had a healthy Shaun Livingston the Warriors would still have Baron.

Ok, so back to Al Harrington. So I'm looking around for teams that need something of an SF/PF that can shoot the three, drive to the rim, and sort of post up, in short, a poor-man's Rashard Lewis. Surprisingly, there aren't that many out there, and those that do have somewhere slide Harrington into the roster don't really have the pieces that the Warriors need.

The first thought that came to mind was some kind of package for Lamar Odom. As I've said many times before, I don't really think that Odom has much of a future with the Lakers, perhaps I'm a little more optimistic about Bynum getting back to 100% and staying healthy, and the Lakers have a need at the SF position. However, they already have Vladamir Radmanovic, and they need something of a defensive specialist that can shoot, not just a shooter. There's a certain amount of irony in bringing on an ex-Don Nelson Warrior to be a defensive specailist (ahem, Mickael Pietrus, ahem). Additionally, for salaries to work, the Warriors would also have to give up someone like Brandan Wright, a promising prospect that the Warriors might be a little leery of giving up. Finally, the Lakers probably aren't going to trade Odom to anyone in the Western Conference, let alone a division rival.

Well, what about Chicago? There are a couple of options there. First, you could try to convince Chicago to sign-and-trade Ben Gordon, who's actually more efficient as a PG than he is as an SG. Problem, I think Gordon is asking for a lot more money than Harrington is worth, so a straight up might not work out very well, and again, we run into the possibility of having to throw Brandan Wright or something into the trade. Another potential deal breaker. Another possibility would be to try to get a better rebounder, like bringing Drew Gooden back to Oakland. Ok, Drew Gooden is not a a name you'd want to really hear as the missing piece, but he's decent on the low block and rebounds decently. However, to match salaries the Bulls would have to throw in another player, and the Warriors would more likely get Cedric Simmons than Thabo Sefolosha. Fortunately, Simmons has an expiring contract. However, this doesn't really do much for the Bulls, who are also looking for something of a low-post scoring threat, something we've already discussed that Al Harrington is not, he becomes pretty redundant with Kirk Hinrich, Larry Hughes, and Luol Deng.

A more realistic option might be the Oklahoma City Thunder, as Sam Presti in the previous couple of seasons has taken to collecting expiring contracts and turning them somehow into trade exceptions and first round picks. A potential might be Chris Wilcox and Damien Wilkins for Al Harrington. It could be a major salary dump if the Thunder try Collison instead, but we'll stick with Wilcox. Essentially what OKC does is turn all of Damien Wilkins's 3 year contract into an expiring one. The Warriors, while adding an interior threat of Chris Wilcox, would also have to eat Damien Wilkins's $3 million 3 year contract, while not expensive, given that it's Damien Wilkins, is something I'd hesitate about as well. Especially as they already have so many GFs that take too many shots already. In throwing this idea around I've also heard of the potential problems of coexistence of Chris Wilcox and Ronny Turiaf, it'd be like the Zach Randolph/Eddy Curry problem, potentially, and knowing Nelson, the two of them will be on the floor at the same time at some point in time, though that might be secondary.

The W's could send Harrington back to Atlanta, but the prospect of getting some package featuring Speedy Claxton in return isn't very appealing. Indiana is another possibility, but the potential of having to package someone else (like Brandan Wright or a Bellinelli and CJ Watson package) with Harrington for a Jamaal Tinsley and Rasho Nesterovic package isn't much more appealing. Memphis seems to always be a good place to stage a heist, regardless of whether or not you want to try to yank away either Javaris Crittenton or Kyle Lowry (I don't think Memphis will trade Conley, I wouldn't if I were them) or you think Hakim Warrick is an improvement, you'd likely have to eat the ugly contract of either Antoine Walker or Marko Jaric, yeah, there's a reason they're so hard to get rid of. Same problem with Minnesota, though the only guy that you might feasibly get that's worth anything would be like Corey Brewer or something, and more likely than not you'd probably have some kind of Mark Madsen/Brian Cardinal package thrown at you, ooohhh (shudder, cringe).

The list just goes on and on:

Cleveland: Ben Wallace is not worth the extra players you'd have to package

New York: Uh... Zach Randolph? Eddy Curry? Heck no

New Jersey: Who the heck is worth getting on this team? Trenton Hassell? Stromile Swift? I don't think Sean Williams or Maurice Ager are worth the extra contract.

Orlando: Hedo is potentially tradeable since he's opting out next season, but one Rashard Lewis clone for another doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Sacramento: Probably something with Kenny Thomas, which means you have to package Harrington or settle for Ouby Douby.

Toronto: Andrea Bargnani and Joey Graham are not the answer and I don't know that Bargnani is tradeable. Oh yeah, I heard that he doesn't get along with Jermaine O'Neal very well either.

LA Clippers: Tim Thomas is also not the answer.

San Antonio: Uh... who do they have available to trade? Sign-and-trade package of Ime Udoka, Robert Horry, and Mighty Mouse? No thanks.

Miami: I don't know that they're quite that willing to give away Haslem (in which case Ws get Daequan Cook or something as well) and I'm pretty sure Mark Blount is not the answer.

Milwaukee: Somewhere along the line Dan Gadzuric's name is going to pop up, and that is not's something Ws want happening.

Portland: They don't want anyone and Ws don't want Raef LaFrentz.

New Orleans: Hilton Armstrong is not an upgrade, Mike James... that's also questionable

Philadelphia: Like San Antonio and Portland they don't have anyone they can really trade and they don't really want to trade for anyone

Utah: Matt Harpring and Jarron Collins are also not the answer.

Washington: Doesn't need Harrington on the roster and the Ws don't need Darius Songaila.

Charlotte: Sean May and Nazr Mohammed? Maybe, not a very convincing maybe, but a maybe nonetheless. Raymond Felton and Adam Morrison? No.

Phoenix: I doubt they can convince a trade for Barbosa and I don't know that a trade for Diaw would be that much better, and potentially, you get Grant Hill, not a horrible prospect I guess, but definitely not the answer.

Indiana: They don't want him back and Ws don't want Troy Murphy back.

Ok, ok, I'm done, I have to admit that was really fun though. Anyways, so maybe I left off a team here and there, but I think you pretty much get the idea as to what the problem that lies therein to be. Al Harrington is almost impossible to trade for equal value. No one really needs his skill sets and to trade him for a salary dump is just pointless as half the teams would trade for him to make a salary dump. It's possible the Ws just have to wait out until his contract expires. I'd like to see Harrington be able to flourish somewhere. Maybe he should find a bunch of players and restart the Sonics franchise in Seattle. As I said, nothing against Al Harrington, I want to see him succeed, he's just not standout enough though. I'd actually love to see him play on Phoenix as an SF or find a spot on D'Antoni's roster if the Knicks can shed the dead weight of Randolph and/or Curry (preferrably both), but c'est la vie. So, yeah, sorry Al.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Season Preview: Portland Trail Blazers

I realized that I don't use enough (any) pictures in my blog, so I'm adding more (some) now. On to the good stuff.

Portland Trail Blazers

Starting 5:
PG- Jerryd Bayless
SG- Brandon Roy
SF- Martell Webster
PF- LaMarcus Aldridge
C- Greg Oden

Off the Bench
Guards: Steve Blake, Rudy Fernandez, Sergio Rodriguez
Forwards: Travis Outlaw, Luke Jackson, Ike Diogu
Centers: Joel Przybilla, Channing Frye, Raef Lafrenz

Four words for you; this team is stacked. Seriously, if there is any young team to look for to watch as an upstart it's the Blazers. Maybe I'm just rooting for the Northwest because Clay Bennett stole the Sonics, but seriously, this team is stacked. They were expected to be somewhat disappointing last season after finding out 1st overall pick Greg Oden would be sidelined for the entire season due to knee surgery. However, three important things happened to give Blazers fans hope, and to help them secure a respectable .500 season (something that would've guarnateed them a playoff spot in the East).

First, Brandon Roy emerged as a leader. After winning Rookie of the Year honors, Roy went on to get his first All-Star berth (some would argue stolen from Baron Davis), and has shown himself to be the primary ball handler and scorer for the team. He's shown to be crucial in the clutch with scoring, distributing and most importantly leading the team. He's got stellar averages (19.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.1 spg), ones that easily merit him stardom and he's shown us all why he ought to be the face of the franchise. Additionally, he's only 24, which means what? He'll only get better, scary. As he gains more experience in the league and learns the ins and outs of NBA play and be able to lead his team even better. His transition has been smoother than most other young players of recent years. He's real refreshing to watch, one of the few 4-year NCAA bred talents in a league that's drafting younger and rawer players. I suppose I might have a bias since he's also from my alma mater.

The second thing to really make a big difference was the emergence of LaMarcus Aldridge as a significant post threat. Easily becoming the no 2 scoring option behind Roy, fellow rookie-classmate Aldridge really emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the paint. He averaged 17.8 pts, 7.6 rbds, 1.6 assts, and 1.2 blocks per game last season, both he and Roy had shown hints of greatness the season before, prompting Kevin Pritchard to promptly dump the unpleasant lockerroom presence of Zach Randolph. From the summer workout reports thusfar, Aldridge apparently has built more mass and strength in his upper body and has flashed some moves in practices that have really impressed people, including some impressive handles and a solid jumper. I can't wait.

Finally, I think one of the biggest things was the breakout year and emergence of 6th man Travis Outlaw last season. He averaged 13.3 pts, 4.6 rbds, 1.3 assts, 0.7 stls, and 0.8 blocks per game on 43% shooting. I don't know about you, but I think those are some pretty impressive stats for a guy coming off the bench. His most impressive line coming off of the final game of the season with 24 points, 12 rebounds, and a steal while shooting 42% from the field. He's dynamite, and on any other team, he'd probably be starting. His value is a lot higher than what I think his averages would indicate, as he split time coming off the bench with James Jones, depending on whether or not the Blazers needed the 3pt lift. Now I know that Outlaw has expressed that he wants to be a starter, something that he doesn't really have the skill sets (three point shooting) for right now. It's not that he's not good, it's just that his game doesn't suit the players on the floor if he started. That being said, he's one of the primary scoring options on the floor off the bench, as Rudy Fernandez accomodates himself to the league.

The biggest questions I think will be the contributions of the rookies; Bayless, Fernandez, and Oden (yes, since he didn't play last year he's technically a rookie this year). Bayless and Fernandez are proven scorers from their own respective leagues (NCAA and Spanish league respectively) and just need to adjust to the next level that is the NBA. Bayless is fast and can penetrate, a very good scorer, someone I can see becoming like Allen Iverson or Monta Ellis. The reason he works at the point is because Roy is such a good distributor for a 2 guard. Blake can do most of the ball handling for the reserves. I didn't see much of Rudy in the Olympics but his explosiveness and overall aggressiveness on the floor really impressed me, he and Outlaw I think will be the major sparkplugs off the bench. While Diogu, Przybilla, and Frye (when he's cleared to play after he recovers from surgery) aren't the most impressive reserves in the frontcourt, you could really do a lot worse. For the most part they're serviceable, and get the job done, and they're young, lots of upside, with the exception of maybe Przybilla, who is the oldest member that cracks the rotation, I don't mind lines of 6 pts, 12 rbds, and a block from my backup center though. What makes this team scary in theory is Oden, he could be the missing piece, what's already scary about this team is that Oden really doesn't have to be that good for the Blazers to be successful. I predict something like a 13 pt, 11 rbd, 2 blck average coming out of Oden as he starts to play, but I can see the Oden/Aldridge frontcourt perhaps being the next Robinson/Duncan (that's right, I went there). Oden is big, and if the reports are anywhere near accurate, he spent the entire season last year building muscle, the man was reported to be 235 lbs of muscle, that's 10lbs of extra weight on Dwight Howard. I would love to see that matchup. Regardless, if he can really pull his game together, this team can really become elite. There are rumors of the Blazers also possibly signing Shaun Livingston, who, if he proves to be able to return from his freak injury two years ago, and is able to bring back everything everyone saw in him, will add even more depth to an incredibly deep and talented team.

I see a 50+ win season, I'd say around maybe 56 wins, playoff berths, and possibly surprising us by getting to the second round.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Season Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers

And on and on we go... whee!!! Isn't this fun? At least it is for me.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Starting 5:
PG- Mo Williams
SG- Sasha Pavlovic
SF- LeBron James
PF- Ben Wallace
C- Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Off the bench
Guards: Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Eric Snow
Forwards: Wally Sczerbiak, Tarence Kinsey, Darnell Jackson
Centers: Anderson Varejao, Lorenzen Wright, JJ Hickson

Not much in terms of major moves this off season, but I like the ones they made. They got rid of Joe Smith, good, they resigned Delonte West, good, they got Mo Williams, good. Mo Williams was a solid addition, the question is, will he be enough? Historically championship teams have had at least two All-Stars on their rosters when they won their rings, Mo Williams, not an All-Star. However, maybe LeBron can overcome that gap. Please, do not try to bring Ben Wallace and Wally Sczerbiak into the conversation. Anyways, the Cavs front office is doing a decent job of trying to take a hodge-podge of pieces and tryign to make something around LeBron, with the impending free agency pool of 2010, they're hoping that they can keep him. That being said, we're here to talk about this season, not next, so onward ho!

Ok, so basically the roster is the same as when they made the finals two years ago, replace Drew Gooden with Ben Wallace, replace Larry Hughes with Mo Williams, and Donyell Marshall with Tarence Kinsey or Lorenzen Wright, your pick. The starting lineup looks nice, Big Z has always been a consistent contributor, despite his age, however, he's not very good at producing on his own. Fortunately, LeBron has a good track record of staying healthy, and he's good at getting his teammates better shots. While Ben Wallace is all but useless on the offensive end, his defensive tenacity is always helpful, the question again remains whether or not he has enough left in his tank to eke out another stellar season. They need him to at least contribute on the offensive glass (beyond picking up his own bricked 2 footers) since he doesn't have the scoring touch of Drew Gooden or Joe Smith. His backup may very well be Varejao with Wright coming in for Big Z off the bench, and the prospects of post scoring don't look much better there either. All in all there isn't much in terms of post presence on the Cleveland offense, while you can do worse than Big Z, he certainly wouldn't be my first choice. Mo Williams by far is a more consistent contributor than Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, and former Cavalier Larry Hughes. He was the second leading scorer behind Michael Redd on the Bucks and is one of those PGs that while scoring is what he does best, isn't a bad passer either, kind of a poor-man's Gilbert Arenas, ok maybe a little better than that.

One can hope that the play book expands to something beyond "pass the ball to LeBron", and that LeBron would be able to also help create off the ball too. Too many good teams are too good at choking such a one-dimensional offensive set. Hopefully Mo Williams changes that. Still, I'm a firm believer that with LeBron anything is possible.

That being said I don't see a significant improvement over the middling season they had last year. Fortunately for them, that's good enough to get them into the playoffs in the East. 46 wins. I'm not gonna make any playoff predictions, why? Because they have LeBron.

Season Preview: Houston Rockets

You've gotten so used to this that I don't need an intro anymore.

Houston Rockets

Starting 5:
PG- Rafer Alston
SG- Tracy McGrady
SF- Shane Battier
PF- Ron Artest
C- Yao Ming

Off the bench
Guards: Brent Barry, Luther Head, Steve Francis, Aaron Brooks, DJ Strawberry
Forwards: Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes, Mike Harris
Centers: Dikembe Mutumbo

This might be the year, the curse of Tracy McGrady might be broken. For those of that don't know, it's simply that every team that McGrady has been on, has never made it past the first round of the playoffs. The closest he's gotten was on Orlando, after blowing a 3-1 series lead to the eventual championship Detroit Pistons. That being said, the addition of Ron Artest was a solid acquisition, on paper at the very least. Everyone and myself have already covered this trade to death when it happened so I won't go into it too much. I see Adleman going with Artest at the 4, he has the strength and defensive tenacity to guard the big guys in the low post, of course, one issue that comes to light and may potentially be a problem is that Artest isn't really much of a rebounder, perhaps he just hasn't had much of an opportunity to, usually playing the 3, we'll see if that pans out, maybe start Shane Battier at the 4? I don't know, for some reason that prospect doesn't sit very well with me.

Regardless of that in adding Artest you add a guy who can score from pretty much anywhere on the court, so you don't have to bank on Rafer Alston getting hot, though if he does improve on last season that'll be an added bonus. It's something of a relief to have a proven scorer given Yao's fragile feet and T-Mac's chronic back. What makes Artest an even better add is that he's a true two-way player, he's mostly known for his defensive tenacity (that and knocking the lights out of fans), so for an already defensively solid team, they get defensively better, and Adleman can just continue to adapt his offense leave the Jeff Van Gundy defense in place. Of course, we always have to be leery of Ron Artest whenever he's not playing basketball, most renown for his rumble and subsequent suspension in the Palace at Detroit, Artest's off-the-court antics and locker-room presence have always been something of a warning sign for most teams. These have had a tendency to carry over into his attitude on the court as well. We'll see if he can get along well enough with Yao and T-Mac and live with playing 3rd fiddle to them. Hopefully he doesn't break the offense.

They haven't resolved the Carl Landry situation yet, but I don't know that that's that big of an issue. I think their team is fine as it is, despite the glut of guards. They're a solid unit, and this team is one of the cases where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. If they can keep up that level of play that got them their record win streak, then I think they'll be a serious threat this year.

Another 50+ win season, I say likewise upwards of 57-58 wins. I'm gonna say 2nd round, just for T-Mac.

Season Preview: Toronto Raptors

I'm baaaackk... Ok, ok, on with the show.

Toronto Raptors

Starting 5:
PG- Jose Calderon
SG- Anthony Parker
SF- Jason Kapono
PF- Chris Bosh
C- Jermaine O'Neal

Off the bench
Guards: Will Solomon, Joey Graham, Hassan Adams, Roko Ukic
Forwards: Kris Humphries, Jamario Moon
Centers: Andrea Bargnani, Nathan Jawai

I like the TJ Ford for Jermaine O'Neal trade, I really do. Honestly, I don't think Rasho Nesterovic really added that much anyway, he was a reasonable replacement when we found out that Andrea Bargnani couldn't really play the center position, but aside from that, yeah, not much. I'm really looking forward to the Chris Bosh/Jermaine O'Neal frontcourt combination. Of course, we always have to call into question O'Neal's health, I know, I know, I wasn't going to play the injury card, but given his past couple of seasons, I think it's a legitimate concern. However, there's also the speculation that he was on a middling Pacers squad and therefore not very much inclined to come back. Why d0 I like this frontcourt so much? Well, as much as Jermaine O'Neal is a nightly 20-10 threat, what I like more about that line is a 10 more than the 20. Chris Bosh can score in bunches, and Jermaine O'Neal will garner you blocks and rebounds, the things he does best, not scoring. It allows for specialization and therefore the ability to focus more. Jermaine gets to play a little closer to the basket and Bosh can roam a little more, showing more of his nice mid-range touch. Then, with a plethora of long-range shooters, and a passer with the court vision of Jose Calderon, their offense is set.

Not getting into the depth issue, another point of contention is who starts at the 3 spot. Last season, the Raptors favored rookie and former Globetrotter Jamario Moon. However, with the arrival of O'Neal, Moon at the 3 runs into muc the same problem as Lamar Odom at the 3 on the Lakers, which is to say, his skill sets aren't really needed. Granted if you look at the lineup, they don't really have much of a slasher, but with Chris Bosh's post abilities, I really don't think they need one, and Anthony Parker I suppose is serviceable enough. Jason Kapono is kind of like the epitome of 3pt specialist, in that, that's really all he can do, shoot, from beyond the arc. He's kind of like an oversized Steve Kerr. He is the reigning 3pt shootout contest champion for a reason. Another option is to add length to the frontcourt by starting Bargnani at the 3, but then the issue of defense comes into question, and whether or not he could keep up with the Paul Pierces and the LeBron Jameses and the Caron Butlers and so on and so forth. Some have argued that Kapono has the same problem while others have argued that he's not as big of a liability as we would imagine (this sound familiar? Moon = Ariza, Kapono = Radmanovic).

Aside from that, bench is somewhat of an unknown, two of the major reserves Nathan Jawai and Roko Ukic being rookies from overseas. Jawai is a 6-10 center from the Australian NBL, and was a fairly proficient low-post threat and rebounder, averaging 17.7 pts, 9.6 rbds, and 1 blk per game on 57.5% FG percentage. Not a lot is really known about him and no one's really sure how he'll transition into the NBA, however, looking at some of his highlights, he looks to be like a scrappy, hustler, someone who works for every play. I think he can grow to be a very solid player, epsecially with O'Neal and Bosh to help him with his game. Draft Express lists him as best case being like Erick Dampier (not a great best case scenario) and worst case being like David Harrison (oh boy). We'll have to trust Toronto and their usually proficient foriegn scouting. While Andrea Bargnani looks like he could be a bust, he's shown signs of having major potential too, they do say it took Dirk a couple of years to adjust, and Yao took a while too if I recall correctly. Roko Ukic is a Croatian point guard, again not very well known, plays for the FIBA club Lottomatica Roma. At 6-5 he's a taller point guard, which isn't a bad thing. Watching his highlights against the Raptors when Lottomatica Roma faced them in an exhibition game summer of '07 I actually really liked what I saw. He's explosive, and fairly quick, able to easily cut into the lane and find his shooters around the perimeter, he also has a pretty good shot (apparently led the league in 3pt % before). His passing is pretty good, but some analysts say that he puts the ball on the floor too much and takes too much time bringing the ball up, apparently his off the ball game isn't great either. However, I think that playing behind a guy who sees and runs the floor as well as Jose Calderon, he'll be able to grow into it, he (Ukic) is only 24, so he's got a couple of years to grow into it, he could be another free agency steal (much like Calderon himself).

In a middling Eastern Conference that is beginning to show signs of life, I believe that this team has improved enough to make it to the second round. More and more like the Western Conference though, it'll depend on who they draw, they might be in a spot to draw a team like Cleveland, in which case, they might not be able to find an answer to LeBron, or Washington, where they can hope that one of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, or Antawn Jamison once again doesn't make it to the playoffs healthy. I say 50-53 wins, easily playoffs, again, depends on who they play, but I can see them making second round.

Monday, September 22, 2008

Season Preview: Utah Jazz

A continuation of this madness or genius or spare time, however you want to look at it.

Utah Jazz

Starting 5:
PG- Deron Williams
SG- Ronnie Brewer
SF- Andrei Kirilenko
PF - Carlos Boozer
C- Mehmet Okur

Off the Bench
Guards: Brevin Knight, Matt Harpring, Morris Almond, CJ Miles, Ronnie Price
Forwards: Paul Millsap, Kyle Korver
Centers: Kosta Koufos, Jarron Collins

I'm a big fan of Jerry Sloan and how he's run his offense, ever since the Stockton and Malone era. Time and time again though, he's always been thwarted by Phil Jackson. I think this lineup looks solid, it's a physical, athletic team that has size and the ability to keep up with the smaller teams. Hence, these guys kill the Warriors every time. Boozer and Kirilenko are both fast enough to keep up with the smaller guys, and there's nothing a smaller lineup can do to stop them in the paint. Okur is one of those bigs who shoots threes but also has a somewhat underappreciated inside game due to the presence of Carlos Boozer. Easily get you 20-10 on any given night. Deron is a big point guard with great ball handling abilities, the first I think to be compared to "Jason Kidd with a jump shot". No one is really sure how they are going to solve the SG platoon, but I like their options. Brewer is an athletic, high energy guard that has a penchant for coming up with steals. Korver is a solid 3 pt threat. I actually would like to see Morris Almond get a little more love. I mean, granted he played in the D-League, but we're talking about a guy whose best lines include a 51 pt, 3 rbd, 3 asst, 3 stl outing on 51% shooting, a 53 pt, 6 rbd, 2 asst, 2 stl outing on 55% shooting, and a 43 pt, 4 rbd, 1 asst, 1 stl game on 60% shooting. Did I mention that he shot 42%, 42%, and 50% for each of those games from beyond the arc as well? His averages were 25.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.6 apg on 44.6% FG and 35.4% from beyond the arc, not stellar, but hey, they're not bad. Granted he had a lot of turnovers (4, 5, and 4 respectively) this guy can score, and to be honest, the ball won't be in his hands that often, so I like him both as a starter or a spark plug off the bench.

The bench is pretty deep, Millsap is a solid hustle guy, and Korver off the bench as some instant 3 pt offense looks pretty solid too. Rookie Kosta Koufos is supposed to actually be something of a Mehmet Okur 2.0, a big man with range and some nice moves in the low-post. I see him getting better as he eases his way into the league. A lot of their problems has been being able to achieve on the road, furthermore being a very physical team, they get called on a lot of fouls, which ends up being very easy points for the other team. Hopefully they can clean that up a little. Finally, one point is always how happy Kirilenko really is being the 4th option behind Williams, Boozer, and Okur in terms of an offensive threat. If he can live with that, and bring everything into his defensive game, pulling 5 asst, 5 stl, 5 blck lines regularly then the Jazz are in good shape. They're a young team that is already elite.

I can see them easily going to the Finals. A good 56-58 win season. Depending on how the matchups fall, Jerry Sloan could finally get his ring.

Season Preview: Philadelphia 76ers

It's back and it continues on, because I know you've all been eagerly anticipating it, or not. Well, regardless, here we go again!

Philadelphia 76ers

Starting 5:
PG- Andre Miller
SG- Willie Green
SF- Andre Iguodala
PF- Elton Brand
C- Samuel Dalembert

Off the bench
Guards: Louis Williams, Royal Ivey, Kareem Rush
Forwards: Thaddeus Young, Reggie Evans, Donyell Marshall
Centers: Theo Ratliff, Marreese Speights

They were the talk of the summer as they managed to pull Elton Brand away from what would have been a remarkable Clippers coup. Warriors fans were happy about that, shaking their "serves you right" fingers at the Clips for stealing away Baron Davis. The starting lineup looks to be the same, with an upgrade of Elton Brand over Reggie Evans as the starting PF. Brand was out for most of last season with a ruptured Achilles tendon, so we didn't get to see much of him, however, we do know he's a hard working, a perennial 20-10 guy, and is considered among the elite of the power forwards in the league. The addition of Brand solves two problems that the 76ers were facing, first, a legitimate go-to scoring option in the low-post, instant offense, sorry, but Dalembert is good, just not go-to good, secondly, he provides veteran leadership next to Andre Miller. With the continued development of Andre Iguodala, Louis Williams, and Thaddeus Young, this team has a good balance of youth and experience.

This is a team that, with its youth, energy, and athleticism managed to take the veteran Detroit Pistons to 6 games in the playoffs. No one really expected them to really even get into the playoffs, let alone take the Pistons to 6 games. Now, they've improved their team in the one position that was really lacking, the PF position. Don't get me wrong, everybody likes Reggie Evans, they really do, but the talent level just wasn't there. He's a good reserve to have coming off the bench, and now the 76ers have a legitimate starter, a very legitimate starter, to put in front of him. As this team has matured they'll hopefully maintain a lot of that energy that propelled them so far. However good this team looks, and however much it's improved over the off-season, the perimeter threat is still somewhat lacking. Certainly they still have Willie Green, and they just signed Donyell Marshall, however, they, I don't feel are really enough to constitute a serious perimeter threat, to be honest, I don't know that Donyell Marshall will see that much playing time let alone get a lot of touches. The players I think you'd likely see handling the ball the most are:

Andre Miller, because he runs the offense, and he can't really shoot outside of 12 feet

Elton Brand, because he's now the no. 1 scoring option (I would have him as that over Iggy), but he's a low post player, I wouldn't want him wandering outside of 12 feet of the basket

Andre Iguodala, the new face of the franchise, his strength is cutting to the basket, shooting isn't exactly his forte, doesn't mean he doesn't do it, but honestly, we'd rather he didn't

Samuel Dalembert, low-post, period

Louis Williams, spark plug off the bench, he's known again for his driving abilities, often likened to Monta Ellis, Monta Ellis, not a shooter

Thaddeus Young, another scorer off the bench, athletic slasher, not a shooter

I think you see where this is going. Outside of Marshall and Green they don't really have much that constitutes as outside threats so they can't really spread the floor. Maybe they're young enough and athletic enough to get away with it. We'll see how well they work together, but all in all, they'll be a pretty fun team to watch coming out of the East.

I see them climbing up the ranks pretty fast, easily jumping up from the 7th seed they once were, as most of the teams in the East I don't think have really changed much, let alone merited significant improvement. A 50 win club, maybe 2nd round this time?