NBA Finals 2008: The Return of Showtime

Everyone keeps saying, it's Showtime again, Boston vs LA, the return of classical basketball. Unfortunately, I don't think I was old enough to grasp the concept of basketball during the Showtime era, so all Showtime means to me is the ridiculous Midway NBA game released in 1999 in the arcades and on Playstation based on the mold of NBA Jam and NBA Hangtime for the Super NES. It simply meant big heads, crazy dunks, 95% hot spot 3 pt shooting, and Patrick Ewing getting his jump shot stuffed by Mugsy Bogues. Now, if that actually happened, it'd be pretty cool, but, I don't think we'll be seeing Sam Cassell flying out of the weak side to reject Pau Gasol on a put back shot.

As much history as these two teams have, and as much as David Stern roots for it, and as much as the gold vs green jerseys bring back waves of nostalgia (for everyone except me as I started watching basketball when Phil Jackson was winning all his rings), this series is no different than the others before it. To be brutally honest, if it weren't for the hype surrounding these teams and the nostalgia of Showtime, you could say that this series has been remarkably boring, there were no major upsets, all the wins have gone to the higher seeded (and arguably better) teams, and now we have the no. 1 Western Conference LA Lakers facing off against the no. 1 Eastern Conference (and league-wide) Boston Celtics. Most of it was hype, and a lot of that hype/tension was released last week when the Lakers dethroned the returning champs in the Spurs and the 2nd best team in the league (Detroit Pistons) was ousted out of the Conference Finals for the 3rd time since their 2004 championship (sorry Flip Saunders).

But we're here to talk about basketball, not rant and rave about media hype, so let's get to the basketball. Firstly, I think Peter May's column in Yahoo! Sports is 100% accurate. There really isn't that strong of a case to call Boston the underdogs beyond their inconsistent playoff play. Granted, that's a big knock against the Celtics, but hey, you have to say that they're all kind of new to it. I mean, it's a pretty quick turnaround turning from a draft lottery team to the Eastern Conference champions (granted it's the Eastern Conference). Still, we're looking at three All-Star/potential hall of famers, and a slew of not so shabby looking backup cast. The Lakers, seem to have won a substantial amount of support and confidence because of the strong play from its role players and the MVP performance of Kobe Bryant.

Let's look at the matchups, and see what happens.

PG - Boston: Rajon Rondo; LA: Derek Fisher
I'm honestly going to have to go with Rondo on this one. I will give that Fisher is a catch and shoot kind of guy, so he doesn't have to make the plays that Mike Bibby and Chauncey Billups did, but Rondo did amazing against those two so defensively, I don't think he's going to have much trouble dealing with Fisher, that kid is long. On the flip side, while Rondo doesn't have a jump shot, he is fast, he has kind of the lookings to be like a lanky Tony Parker. I honestly don't think Fisher can keep in front of him.

SG - Boston: Ray Allen; LA: Kobe Bryant
Ray Allen has received a lot of criticism for not being able to find his shot and fading during this playoff series. Honestly, as I've said I think on a Yahoo! board, I don't think people are looking at Allen very fair. He moved from being the Sonics' no. 1 All-Star scoring option in front of Rashard Lewis and Chris Wilcox to becoming the no. 3 scoring option behind Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Yes, Allen is older, but he's not a pure shooter, never was, never will be. I'm not saying Allen can't shoot, but they Celtics optimally would work even better with a Reggie Miller type player, the ultimate catch and shoot, and that is a player that Ray Allen is not. However, I think he's going to find ways to score nonetheless, being finding his shot off the double-screen, or just putting the ball on the floor. The big question will be, if Phil Jackson keeps Kobe on him, and how much Kobe invests into defense. On the other side of the floor, I've really only got one thing to say; it's Kobe Bryant. Of course, this is the league-wide no 1 defense he's going against, and his previous two outings against Boston he's shot a combined 15-46, that's 32.6% for a guy who normally averages 45.9%. Expect to see Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins to come out and help alot, but of course, still expect Kobe to try to get his 30 per game. He's not considered the MVP and the best player in the game for nothing.

SF- Boston: Paul Pierce; LA: Vladamir Radmonovic
I wouldn't be very surpised if Phil Jackson opted to go with Trevor Ariza or Sasha Vujacic depending on whether he puts Kobe on Pierce or Allen. Radmonovic has size on Pierce and nothing else. A lot is going to be on Pierce, and while he won't have to replicate his showdown with Lebron James, it wouldn't hurt if he pulled out another 41 point performance. None of the above players mentioned are huge offensive threats, so I don't think Pierce will have too hard of a problem covering any one of them, please smack me if Radmonovic or Ariza suddenly go off for 29 points.

PF- Boston: Kevin Garnett; LA: Lamar Odom
This is where the matchups get a little muddy, but I'm going to base it on the starting lineups that the two teams seem to favor. The biggest question of matchups is here in the front court, and how Odom and Gasol will be matched up against Garnett and Perkins. Some have Gasol on Garnett and Odom on Perkins, and others have Garnett on Odom. I think that either way, one of the Lakers' major offensive threats will be shut down with Kevin Garnett on him. I personally would have Garnett body up against Gasol, but who knows? On the other side, the same problem persists, Odom is just not a good enough post player to guard Garnett, and against Kendrick Perkins he's giving a good 34 pounds in the paint. That's a lot of size. Gasol on the other hand, would do a better job, but I think Garnett does everything Gasol can do better (except maybe shooting), and will still find ways to produce. Perkins is just sort of the garbage man, benefitting off all the attention Garnett draws in the post and that Pierce and Allen draw off their slashing, with the dunk off the double team.

C- Boston: Kendrick Perkins; LA: Pau Gasol
As mentioned above, Perkins will kind of be the beneficiary of any double teams and help defense LA will throw up against the Big 3, and he's no slouch on defense. I think he could give Pau Gasol some trouble if he guarded him, and he definitely will force Odom to pass out or go to his jump shot, and that's probably shakier than LeBron's. Odom won't be able to finish at the rim the way he likes to, and he'll likely have to work that much harder on the glass for rebounds if he's matched up against Perkins. Gasol will likely be experiencing a very physical brand of basketball between Perkins and Garnett, granted he survived San Antonio with Tim Duncan and Kurt Thomas (and Fabricio Oberto), but I think that they'll lock down on him even more in Boston. We'll see how he fares, but given Bostons strong defense, I really don't anticipate him averaging 20 pts a game through the series, I think even 10 rebounds will be tough for him.

Bench- Boston: Sam Cassell, Eddie House, James Posey, Glen Davis, PJ Brown; LA: Jordan Farmar, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic, Ronny Turiaf
As good as the Lakers bench has played, I still like Boston's bench better. I'll take James Posey over Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza any day. The fact is, is that most of LA's bench has been relegated to a role playing position, and despite the inconsistencies of Boston's bench, I think they're more liable to make a bigger difference in the game than the reserves from LA. PJ Brown has shown that he can make key put backs and clutch shots, Big Baby has really stepped it up, and Eddie House and Sam Cassell can still make their shots. Farmar and Vujacic have shown sparks of being great role players, but when it comes down to the wire, I think the veterancy will pay off. Posey, Cassell, and Brown just bring too many intangibles to the floor that the Lakers' bench is lacking. If we assume that Gasol and Bryant cancel out the Big Three, then it comes down to the reserves and role players, and as far as the reserves are concerned, I think that the Boston bench can and will contribute more than the Lakers.

Having home court advantage definitely makes it a very, very promising situation for Boston as well. They like playing in the Garden. It'll be the long, drawn out, Showtime series that David Stern was looking for, but in the end, I think Boston just wants it more. Too much desire from too many snubbed All Stars, Kobe's been there, done that, and he and his team know that they're still young, they've still got their chances, Kobe's already got his rings and now he has his MVP. Between Garnett, Pierce, and Allen (and you could throw in Sam Cassell for good measure), there's too much desire, having been so close, having the taste of being champions, but never quite getting there, now's their time.

Boston in 7, you heard it here. Someone's gotta predict something in order to be right or wrong.