Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Finding an Answer for The Answer

So one thing has been banging through my head for a while, and that's the question of what's Denver going to do about its roster. Obviously they're in cost cutting mode, they've traded away Marcus Camby for a conditional 2nd round pick to the Clippers in essence for cap relief. The Nuggets expert(s) at Pickaxe and Roll beyond lauding the Nuggets for their trade of Marcus Camby, have also begun to ask whether or not the Nuggets should tank the season. Regardless of whether or not any of us think the Marcus Camby for cap relief trade was a good idea, it happened, and either way I can see it working out. Now, the issue at hand then, remains, can this team be a contender? The answer is, quite succinctly, no. At least not as it's currently constructed. So there needs to be some sort of major change in the game plans right? Perhaps. None that I know of at least, so as far as anything is concerned, this is pure speculation.

So where does the problem start? Well, the past seasons have indicated that Carmelo Anthony while great players don't play great together. Yet these two are the main pieces of this franchise. Over two years ago Iverson was shipped out of Philadelphia for Andre Miller, Joe Smith and two first round picks. He was brought over to Denver to be the missing piece next to Syracuse standout Carmelo Anthony. Not to say that they've taken away from each other. Both players played exceptionally well last season. Carmelo Anthony posted averages of 25.7 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game on 49.2% shooting. Iverson also had a stellar year, posting 26.2 points, 3.0 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 2.0 steals on 45.8% shooting. So if we take that combined, they had 51.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, 10.5 assists, and 3.3 steals per game on 47.6% shooting, and a fairly respectable 36.3% long distance accuracy. That's pretty impressive right? Sure, no doubt about it, the problem is, "sticky hands". The two are phenomenal players, but their games don't complement one another very well. Both create on their own and therefore it's kind of what you see is what you get. The rest of the team doesn't get very involved at all. It's not a problem of them cannibalizing each others' contributions (like with Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph), but with two score first options, there is not a lot of team cohesion. It's a case where the whole needs to be greater than the sum of the parts.

With that being said, one of them probably doesn't have much of a future left with Denver, and I'm going to bank that it's Iverson. He's in the final year of his contract, and I don't see much of a reason for Denver to extend him. Melo has been and I believe will remain the face of the franchise for a long while. I mean, he's been there 5 years as opposed to Iverson's one and a half, and he's only 24 to Iverson's 33 years of age. So that being said, Iverson is out the door. Therein lies a slight problem, which is, moving Iverson. He's a phenomenal player, but he doesn't just slide into a system that easily, I like what he brings to the table more so than Al Harrington, but that doesn't make him easy to trade. There's a reason he stayed with Philadelphia so long, the system was built completely around him. So we have to take a look at what AI brings to the table.

First, we know that AI is a small guy, at least for someone in the NBA. He's 6-0 weighing in at 165 lbs. Second, we know he's s a score first guy, coming into a year where he's turning 33, and playing next to such a pure scorer as Carmelo Anthony, Iverson ranked 3rd in the league in terms of scoring average (26.2) behind only LeBron James (30.0) and Kobe Bryant (28.3). In short, he can put the ball in the bucket. For a guard his size, his ability to cut into the lanes and create shots is phenomenal, and while he's getting older, it's not showing a whole lot. Finally, he cuts into lanes, AI is good at coming up with steals. He ranked 4th in the league (2.0) behind Chris Paul (2.7), Baron Davis (2.3), and former teammate Andre Iguodala (2.1).

So where does that bring us? We need a team where Iverson can be the end product. While Iverson is ranked 9th in the league for assists per game (behind Chris Paul, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, Jose Calderon, Baron Davis Raymond Felton, and LeBron James) he creates his own offense, and again, those two words; score first. So in essence, he needs a pass first kind of teammate, additionally, someone that can run with him in the break, but also allow him to create and work off the ball. That being said, Iverson also needs to learn to work without the ball too, as he'll likely be a missing piece more than anything else to any other team. He's not a great spot up shooter, but with his speed, you might be able to catch him running the lanes, and penetrating.

You'll find that my answer will be my solution to a lot of these hard to move players. That solution, being, the Cleveland Cavaliers. So the long awaited answer for The Answer ends up being a trade of Allen Iverson and Steven Hunter for Wally Sczerbiak, Eric Snow, and Lance Allred. Here's my reasoning:

Ultimately it ends up being 1 big expiring contract for 3 smaller ones, I threw in Steven Hunter's 2 year $7m contract as a kind of sweetener to the pot so that Denver does get some cap relief. Maybe throw a couple of picks here and there too, depending on how you think it'd work out. While Sczerbiak will definitely not make up for the loss of scoring created by Iverson, immediately, he'll be a decent long-range threat next to Melo on the block. Additionally, a suitable replacement for oft injured Chucky Atkins and a reasonable reserve for Anthony Carter can be found in Eric Snow. Allred is a relative unknown but is a big body you can put behind Nene and Kenyon Martin, and next to Chris Anderson. So obviously in terms of talent Denver loses out on this trade. Is that such a bad thing? Well, again, that depends on the direction the team wants to go. As the Nuggets expert said, maybe it wouldn't be such a bad thing for the Nuggets to miss the playoffs this year in favor of perhaps doing better in the future, instead of having perpetual embarrassing first round exits. Additionally, the removal of Steven Hunter's salary creates an added amount that the Nuggets can hurl around, especially with the upcoming lucrative free agency.

I understand any reservation Cleveland may have with picking up fat contracts like Ben Wallace, and some would even argue Daniel Gibson. Regardless, Danny Ferry has been trying to fit the right team around LeBron so that they'll finally win something. They've gotten so close, but they've still been so far. The plan had been to find some star-caliber talent to put next to LeBron so it's not just a one man show. So far, the only consistently positive contributor has been veteran Zydrunas Ilgauskas, he's not a star, and a pretty sad 2nd option. The first attempt was with Larry Hughes, who had a standout year with the Wizards. Cleveland threw a 5 year $60 million contract at Hughes, who in essence returned the favor with a year of mediocrity (14.9 ppg, 3.7 apg, 3.8 rpg, 1.3 spg on 40% shooting). Then Cleveland shipped out Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall, Ira Newble, Cedric Simmons, and Shannon Brown for their next proposed solution; Ben Wallace, Wally Sczerbiak, Joe Smith, and Delonte West. The only thing that worked about that was Delonte West, but he's valued more as a defensive option, so the problem still remains, who to play next to LeBron? Their most recent rememdy was the acquisition of guard Mo Williams, by sending out Joe Smith and Damon Jones in another 3 team trade. Mo Williams played well last season, with averages of 17.2 ppg, 6.3 apg, and 3.5 rpg playing next to Bucks All-Star Michael Redd. However great of an acquisition that might be I think more scoring talent is needed in order for the Cavs to make it further. May I present; The Answer.

So how does this work? Well, the reason I mention that Cleveland will likely be my destination to a lot of "black hole" type players is because LeBron is a pass-first guy. Granted, he's won the scoring title this past year, but I believe that's more that he doesn't have a lot of people to pass to more so than he doesn't pass. If LeBron can work off the ball, and Mo Williams can specialize a little further as a 3pt shooter, then you have three points of origin from which Cleveland can originate its offense, where before you had only one. While all three (James, Iverson, and Williams) are ball handlers they've all shown that they can pass the ball fairly well (with 7.2, 7.2, and 6.3 assist averages respectively). As with the Big 3 in Boston, each player is going to have to defer a little, however, this being said, a Williams, Iverson, James backcourt is very dynamic and will I believe be fairly effective. Should this not work out, Iverson's $20M goes off the books at the end of the year. In essence, you replace Allred with Steven Hunter, a slight hit on the salary cap. Would it be enough to keep them from resigning LeBron? I'm not too sure about that, you are still getting rid of Iverson's $20M. Another reservation might be that Iverson and Williams constitute a fairly small backcourt, and might be something of a defensive liability, however, I believe if the Cavs can still rotate out well, they can still have an effective defense. Additionally, their backcourt reserve of Pavlovic and West are something of defensive specialists anyways. Who'll play behind LeBron? Well, I have high hopes for Tarence Kinsey, who during an injury plagued season at Memphis 2 years ago, averaged 17.2 points, 3.86 rebounds, 1.73 assists on 50% shooting in the last 15 games of the season. Seriously though, can you imagine it? LeBron and Iverson on the break off an outlet from Big Z or a steal? LeBron can go back to being a facilitator, which he's great at, and Iverson adds All-Star caliber scoring next to him.

That's my solution.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

No. There are too many problems with this than can be counted, but here are a few. 1st Snow is done, he is just a contract. He is no longer able to play basketball at an NBA level, he can only be used to make salaries match. 2nd Mike Brown likes big gaurds and Mike Brown likes players who play defense, Iverson is neither. 3rd Both Lebron and AI need the ball to be productive, there is only one ball on the floor at a time so they both would make each other worse. 4th The Cavs can get an under 33 year old player that plays a little D and has a jumpshot at the trade deadline using Wally's contract when team fall out of the play-off race. 5th Nuggets are clearing cap space right now, AI contract is over at the end of the season, that is almost 22mil off the books.

GnachSanoj said...

Anonymous,

Allow me to address the issues you brought up.

1.) Ok, fine, expiring contract reasons though

2.) Mo Williams

3.) As I mentioned, both would have to work off the ball, which might be a problem, but I don't see them doing any worse than AI and Melo, in fact I see them doing better, because LeBron is a passer.

4.) Probably

5.) Sczerbiak and Snow's contracts are both expiring and add up to be more than AI's.