Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Correction to Yesterday's Things That Won't Happen

So, in light of today's breaking news, there is an amendment I need to make to yesterday's list of things that won't happen in the remainder of the NBA season. Originally I had written:

1.) One team with 50 wins will not make it to the playoffs

While that may still be true, I had set that down as the Warriors, I must now amend that. The thing that will not happen this season is this:

1.) Tracy McGrady and the Rockets will not be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs
In fact they won't even make it to the playoffs, because Yao Ming is out for the season with a stress fracture in his foot. With such a competitive Western Conference, losing such a potent force as Yao Ming really hurts Houston's chances at making a playoff run. They are only 2.5 and 3 games ahead of Golden State and Denver respectively, and Denver is only 6 games behind the conference leading LA Lakers. That's only 6 games between 1st place and 9th. In the East the disparity is 20.5 games (Atlanta behind Boston). Today the Rockets host the Washington Wizards, who are struggling without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, but still managed to win over New Orleans thanks to DeShawn Stevenson. While the 6th seed of the Eastern Conference may not be overly impressive, Houston goes into the game without its major piece. Yao, was having a great season, despite his scoring being down, he was still averaging 22 pts and 10.8 rbds per game. Now all of the onus of carrying the Rockets will fall on T-Mac, beceause as much as Luis Scola or Chuck Hayes step up to fill the middle, they're no where near Yao. After finishing off the month with the tanking Memphis Grizzlies, the Rockets start out March with a tough schedule playing Denver, Indiana, Dallas, and New Orleans (Indiana shouldn't be that tough, but the other three are going to be grueling). Now that one of the pillars of the Rockets is gone, they're going lean on T-Mac a lot more to carry the team, and given his history of poor health and agressive play, it would be devestating if his chronic back issues started to act up again. In short, to all you Houston fans, you had a great run (12 in a row!) but the West is just too competitive this year. Rockets, now, far from being the shoe-in at 7th, will probably drop to 9th, being edged out without their big man Yao.

On that note, the other teams pushing for the playoff spots Golden State and Denver have a pretty easy schedule through the rest of the month, Golden State playing Seattle tonight and Philadelphia on Friday, and Denver playing Seattle tonight and the Clippers on Friday. Going into the first week of March Golden State will have it pretty easy playing Portland (less Brandon Roy), Atlanta, Charlotte (less Gerald Wallace), Miami, and the toughest game will be finishing off the week with Orlando. Denver will have a grueling schedule as well, starting the month off with Houston, then playing Phoenix, San Antonio, and Utah. I anticipate Denver catching up sometime in March and Golden State to pass Houston in the next two weeks.

No comments: