Why Lebron James Will be Swept Again if He Goes to the Finals

I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again, if Detroit and Boston are somehow upset in the playoffs, I expect the NBA Finals to be painfully short and an unspectacular romping of whichever team comes out of the Eastern Conference. Let's say any of the top 5 teams in the West have a shot at the Finals (Lakers, Spurs, Suns, Hornets, Mavericks), in any given 7 game series against an Eastern Conference team not called the Pistons or the Celtics, will likely be resolved within 5 games (more likely a sweep, though Orlando might make it to 6). Let's look at the team that probably has the biggest x-factor to once again make it to the Finals, that would be the Cleveland Cavaliers. Here's why, if they do by some freak accident, make it to the Finals, they will lose, again:

1.) Just because Sasha Pavlovic did a "good job" guarding a lethargic Vince Carter last season against the Nets does not mean that he can stop Kobe Bryant or Manu Ginobili (maybe with Peja and Jason Terry and Raja Bell). The reason; Kobe and Manu actually care. Rod Thorn has already spent seasons and $60 million trying to get the former All-Star and slam dunk champion to at least try when he's playing. Carter's kind of resigned himself to the fact that he'll always play on mediocre teams that don't go anywhere though. Avery Johnson said he tried every kind of defense conceivable to stop Kobe, and it didn't happen. Manu Ginobili has been on a hot streak and just won't be denied, he's had over 30 pts in 4 of the last 9 games that the Spurs played (all Ws for the Spurs btw).

2.) The Cavs will have a harder time shutting down Tim Duncan or Pau Gasol (or David West or Amare Stoudamire or Dirk Nowitzki) than the other team will have shutting down Ben Wallace. Seriously, for a guy that has a good game a 6pts, 10 rbds this season, you're not really going to need a lot to limit his scoring, and you know that Wallace will see a lot of play time trying to stop the bigs inside. Sure he'll cut them down by a couple of FGs, but when they sub in Joe Smith they'll go crazy, and not like Ben Wallace will make a big enough difference to matter in the end anyway.

3.) The Cavs' added perimeter threat isn't overly threatening. Only about as much as say the Spurs perimeter with only Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen shooting, but when you tack on Ginobili, Barry, and the occaisional clutch 3 from Robert Horry, Sczerbiak, West, and Gibson don't look that scary. From the Lakers you have Fisher, Vujajic, Farmar, and Kobe, Mavs have Terry, Howard, and Nowitzki, Hornets have Peja and Mo Pete (I don't include the Suns because they don't play defense anyway, but they still have Nash, Bell, and occaisionally Grant Hill).