My All-Star Game Predictions

So basically all the "official" All-Star Game events are pretty much set, well, at least the big ones, those being the dunk contest, three-point contest, skills challenge, rookie-sophomore game, and the actual All-Star Game after which the weekend is named.  Now that we know how everything is going down, it's fair to start making some predictions.  This is just for fun, so let's get to it.

Foot Locker 3-Point Shootout

Participants:

Rashard Lewis (SF/PF, Orlando Magic)

Jason Kapono (SG/SF, Toronto Raptors)

Danny Granger (SG/SF, Indiana Pacers)

Roger Mason (PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs)

Daequan Cook (SG, Miami Heat)

Mike Bibby (PG, Atlanta Hawks)

My first reaction to this was; Daequan Cook?  My second was; there sure isn't much representation of the Western Conference.  I wouldn't mind seeing like Peja or someone like that in this.  A lot of people say Rudy Fernandez, but he's a rookie, and he's already in two events.  Not sure who decides this, but seriously, Daequan Cook?  Ok, he's making 2.3 out of 5.7 per game (41%) which is what Mike Bibby shoots, but surely you can find someone better than Daequan Cook...  My recommendations include and are not limited to; Kevin Martin (2.2/5.3, 41.2%), Troy Murphy (2.0/4.8, 42%), Steve Blake (I know he's injured, but still, 2.1/4.9, 43.4%), Peja Stojakovic (2.6/6.2, 41%), Ben Gordon (2.2/5.3, 41%).  That's just based on the arbitrary standard (which it seems like the players were picked from) of players making more than 2 3pts a game and shooting over 40% from downtown, pick five and throw in Jason Kapono, the reigning champ, and you have the 3 point contest.  There's also been a lot of local support (Bay Area) for Anthony Morrow, and how now he'll go crazy because he was jilted from the All-Star weekend.  Ok, I'm done.

For those of you unfamiliar with what this is, there are five ball carts placed around the the point arc.  Each cart has 4 regular balls plus 1 money (different colored) ball.  Point of the contest is simple, score as many points as you can shooting 3 pointers.  Each regular ball counts for 1 and each money ball counts for 2.  You have 1 minute, starting from the cart at the left corner, and make as many as you can, moving from left to right, finishing with the cart at the right corner.

All of the above mentioned are great in game shooters, but that might mean they're used to taking leaners or crazy shots or something.  The argument goes though, that if they can make those shots, they should be able to make a series of open uncontested 3s.  Ok... Except, they're timed.   I think I've heard somewhere that Rashard Lewis has a pretty slow release, that might be tough.  Doesn't matter though, because Jason Kapono was designed to shoot uncontested 3s from ball racks in a short amount of time.  Now if you followed the link, it doesn't show all of the first two carts, but it can be presumed that he makes all of them, and only misses the first ball in the last cart.  He tied the record for the 3 pt contest of 25, and I don't see any one of those people beating him out.  You hear them saying that they want to see Ray Allen or Michael Redd in this thing against Kapono, me too.  Granted, I'd rather have Rashard Lewis or Danny Granger being my "3pt specialist" but that's more because a.) they're better in game, b.) they can do something other than shoot threes.  However, this isn't an in-game situation.  3peat.

Projected Winner: Jason Kapono

Playstation Skills Challenge

Participants:

Derrick Rose (PG, Chicago Bulls)

Tony Parker (PG, San Antonio Spurs)

Devin Harris (PG, New Jersey Nets)

Unknown

They haven't announced a replacement yet for Jameer Nelson, and who will replace him in this challenge.  Maybe they'll bring back the reinging champ and record holder Deron Williams, though I don't know that that's likely.  Hard to say who they'd pick, maybe bring in Steve Nash?  I think last year was Deron Williams, Dwayne Wade (the then reigning champ), Jason Kidd, and Chris Paul.  The year before was Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, Steve Nash (the reigning champ from 2005), and Chris Paul.  In 2005 Steve Nash won out over Luke Ridnour, Gilbert Arenas, and Earl Boykins.  In 2004, before Playstation started sponsoring the Skills Challenge, Baron Davis won out against Earl Boykins, Derek Fisher, and Stephon Marbury.  Tony Parker has appeared in Skills Challenge before, but was embarrassed in 2003 against Marbury, Kidd, and Gary Payton.

I'm not very good at explaining what you have to do, so you guys can look up what specifically each player has to do in the Skills Challenge.

The fourth player here is going to be the x-factor.  What killed Tony Parker during his last try at this challenge was really the 20 ft jumper at the top of the key, however he's improved a lot.  The thing about Rose, Parker, and Harris, is that they're all really, really fast, so I imagine that they'd all do well.  However given that, Harris and Parker will not have participated in any event, whereas Rose will already have played in the Rookie-Sophomore challenge.  Maybe that's what makes the difference.  As you can imagine, this is more a test of perfection than of sheer speed, so whoever makes the fewest number of mistakes will be the winner.  That being said, I think Rose brings the most complete skill-set to the arena.  Not saying he's better than everyone else, just saying that he has all the components to make this work.

Projected Winner: Derrick Rose

Sprite Slam Dunk Contest

Participants

Dwight Howard (C, Orlando Magic)

Nate Robinson (PG/SG, New York Knicks)

Rudy Gay (SG/SF, Memphis Grizzlies)

Rudy Fernandez (SG/SF, Portland Trailblazers)

I've been kind of disenchanted with the Slam Dunk contest, but this is arguably the second-biggest event of the weekend.  I'm personally not a fan of the fans voting for the winner, but hey, what can you do about it?  I also wasn't particularly impressed with the selection for this year.  Dwight Howard and Nate Robinson are kind of the novelty big-man and small-man (respectively) participants, that, and Dwight Howard is kind of the reigning champ.  Nate Robinson has already been in the Slam Dunk contest twice, once in 2006 beating out Andre Iguodala with his dunk over Spudd Webb, and then again in 2007 to defend his title, where he got upstaged by Gerald Green.  Rudy Gay, honestly wasn't that impressive last year, but it might've just been because Dwight Howard sort of stole the stage, from everyone.  Rudy Fernandez was a fan vote in, though I can't say they had a whole lot to choose from, the choice being Fernandez, Joe Alexander from the Bucks, and Russell Westbrook from the Thunder.

Now for those of you that don't know what happens in the Slam Dunk Contest, each player gets 2 minutes to perform a dunk of his choice.  There are unlimited number of attempts, you just have to get a dunk off in 2 minutes.  There are two rounds of these which are scored by judges (usually former NBA greats such as Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson) on scale of 1 to 10, 1 being utter trash and 10 being unbelieveable.  Then the two players with the highest scores advance to the final round where they are both allotted two more dunks, after which, the fans text in their pick for the Slam Dunk champ.  This whole fans picking the champ thing started last year, and I can't say I'm a fan of it, but oh well.  I generally don't vote, because I don't have a texting plan and I think it's a waste of $0.20.

Hm.... hard to pick this year, especially because in the Slam Dunk contest you never know what's going to happen.  Some people might be sleeping on Rudy Fernandez, I wasn't overly impressed with the pick, but it happened this year, and maybe I'm wrong.  I'm gonna give it to Dwight again this year, because I think he's probably the most creative out of them.  Unless Gay comes out with something new, and I think we've seen enough of how high Nate Robinson can jump, and honestly, because of that, he can't do a whole lot.  Fernandez is kind of the x-factor as the only dunks people ever play of him is him dunking on Howard in the Olympics and a reverse alley-oop he got from Sergio Rodruiguez, in game.  All-in-all I'm just hoping for a good show, something a little more climactic than Fred Jones winning off a layup because Jason Richardson misses a dunk.

Projected Winner: Dwight Howard

Rookie-Sophomore Challenge

Projected Starters	Rookies	Sophomores
PG	Derrick Rose	Rodney Stuckey
SG	OJ Mayo	Wilson Chandler
SF	Rudy Fernandez	Kevin Durant
PF	Michael Beasley	Thaddeus Young
C	Greg Oden	Al Horford

As a note, these are my projected starters, whoever ends up coaching this game might end up doing something completely different.

 

Reserves	Rookies	Sophomores
Guards	Russell Westbrook Eric Gordon	Aaron Brooks
Forwards		Jeff Green Al Thornton
Centers	Marc Gasol Brook Lopez	Luis Scola

First thing you notice is that the rookies don't have any forwards and the sophomores don't really have a true center.  I do a slightly more thorough breakdown of it in my previous post, so I won't go into too much detail here.  I think you'll probably see the PF slot manned by Beasley and Gasol pretty frequently, maybe even Lopez.  I also wouldn't be surprised if the sophomores run small with a frontcourt of some combination of Young, Green, and Thornton.  Ultimately though, I think the sophomores just have more firepower than the rookies, they don't have anyone that is both big enough and fast enough to stay with Kevin Durant.  

Projected Winner: Sophomores

All-Star Game

Starters	East	West
PG	Allen Iverson	Chris Paul
SG	Dwayne Wade	Kobe Bryant
SF	LeBron James	Amar’e Stoudemire
PF	Kevin Garnett	Tim Duncan
C	Dwight Howard	Yao Ming

 

Reserves	East	West
Guards	Devin Harris Joe Johnson Ray Allen	Chauncey Billups Brandon Roy Tony Parker
Forwards	Paul Pierce Danny Granger Rashard Lewis	Dirk Nowitzki Pau Gasol David West
Centers	Chris Bosh	Shaquille O’Neal

 Interesting to note that while the East only has one true center and 1 center eligible PF, the West has 2 true centers and 3 center eligible PFs.  On that note, the West also doesn't have any small forwards.  I don't really expect a whole lot in terms of set plays or defenses in this game, but size will be an issue that the East has to deal with, and perimeter defense needs to be a priority of the West.  I'm gonna go with the East just because their roster is more balanced.  If they included Kevin Durant instead of David West, they wouldn't have this problem.

Projected Winner: East