Orlando Magic
The Magic are paying this season a salary of $68.4 million, 13 players signed, the minimum number required to be under contract in the NBA. If we look at next season, the Magic look to be paying $70.6 million, which might put them right at the luxury tax threshold, this is assuming that Hedo Turkoglu doesn't opt out. Rumors have Turkoglu, who turns 30 this season, wanting to opt out to sign one last contract, analysts guess that it would be around $50 million for 5 years, something honestly the Magic can't really afford. You have to note that with Turkoglu on the roster the Magic would only have 10 players under contract. The remaining nine would be: Jameer Nelson, Mickael Pietrus, Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Anthony Johnson.
Let's say now that Magic somehow manage to retain Hedo at what he's due, so say he doesn't opt out. They pay the $7.3 million remaining in his contract. So the magic are at $70.6 million, they're paying the luxury tax. They need to cut $13.3 million to get under the cap, and just a couple of million to get under the luxury tax. I'd imagine that they have a number of pieces that are movable and pieces they'd be able to convert into cheaper contracts somehow, those pieces being; Tony Battie, JJ Redick, Anthony Johnson, and Rafer Alston, all expiring contracts that don't really have a future with the team. However those four contracts would have to be turned into at least 6 plus whatever contract can be garnered using the $5.5 million MLE. Should Hedo be retained, the Magic in essence keep their starters plus sixth man intact, those being Nelson, Pietrus, Turkoglu, Lewis, Howard, and Lee.
Now that we have a clear picture of the general situation that Orlando has available, we can kind of garner moves that Orlando might be able to make in the 2009 off-season. Obviously, to Otis Smith and Magic fans, retaining the core of Nelson, Lewis, Howard, and Turkoglu are important, so let's look at the needs that still need to be filled. Well, generally most of the bench outside of the two guard spot, since right now the Magic (in my opinion) only are dead set at retaining 6 of their players. Pretty much all Magic will have to work with is an MLE and maybe trading off said expiring contracts, though retaining them is an option as well. Given the anticipated weakness of the coming draft, and the fact that the Magic really don't have a good pick in there anyways, Otis Smith won't be able to rely on a cheap late pick talent to bolster the roster.
I believe that the Magic will be able to resign Marcin Gortat relatively inexpensively (he made $711,517 this past season), so if they resign him at the minimum ($736,420) then it makes no impact on their future prospects. If the Magic are that intent on resigning Hedo, or if he doesn't exercise is ETO (early termination option) then Magic are looking to pay the luxury tax anyways, with the decreasing threshold. Granted they can try to cut some salary by making money oriented trades with expiring contracts, however, I would look to win now if I were the Magic. So if we look at the general needs of the Magic, one would be a rebounding presence next to Dwight Howard, in short, a "true power forward". While Rashard Lewis starts at the power forward slot, he's not a power forward, and Magic would greatly benefit by having a high energy spark plug kind of guy off the bench that could grab boards and play next to Dwight Howard.
One guy that I've always been pushing, but is a little on the expensive side, is Nick Collison. Would OKC take JJ Redick and Rafer Alston's expiring contracts for him? Maybe. However, given the Magic need to fill roster slots, a two-for-one might not be the best option. Nick Collison is one of those great, under-the-radar kind of guys that hustles, rebounds, and just does all the things you want a big man to do. Given that he's not really a great fit for the Thunder's youth movement, I can see him being moved this summer, for the right price.
Chris Andersen looks to be possibly a cheap and solid pickup. The Birdman is 30 but is playing well as a reserve behind Nene in Denver. He only makes $797,581 this season, so a small contract for a couple of years could really garner him becoming a big piece on the Magic bench at a relatively low cost. He's shown to be tremendously efficient, averaging 6.2 points and 5.4 rebounds in around 19 minutes of play. Efficiency-wise, that breaks down into 11.6 points and 10.3 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Another option that probably would end up being more expensive would be Chris Wilcox. It's hard to remember that Wilcox is only 26, and athletic, since his play thusfar has been, well, underwhelming to say the least. I'm sure he won't garner the $6.75 million he's making right now, but I think for a guy like Wilcox who can bang with the big power fowards and is ridiculously athletic, I think he would definitely call for a good chunk of the MLE which might mean that Orlando wouldn't be able to keep up with any offers that perhaps other teams could throw at him. Unless there was some locker room issue that I'm not aware of, Wilcox has also played with Lewis in Seattle, so maybe an incentive to play for a little less?
Drew Gooden is also worth looking at, but I believe that he'll garner about the MLE, so I'm not sure that Magic would pay that much for a guy they'd bring off the bench, which again, is the same concern they would have for Wilcox or Collison. I could dip into the restricted free agent (RFA) pool, but I have doubts that Magic would be able to competitively bid for players like David Lee, Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, or Brandon Bass.
Another need that Magic would probably like to fill would be that of a backup point guard. I don't really see them re-signing Tyronne Lue, so ideally, they want someone that would be cheaper than Alston (who's not really a backup anyways) and better than Anthony Johnson. A lot of people have been pushing for D-Leaguers since Jameer Nelson went down with injury, and while it might be interesting, I think it'll have to depend on who the Magic work out in the summer league. I'm not entirely positive on Lue's contract since he's listed as an ETO, but I think it's something the effects that his salary isn't guaranteed. Regardless, they could use an upgrade.
Looking at the FA list, there isn't a whole lot to choose from, not sure if they'd be able to lure Jack away from Pacers, or if he'd come super cheap ($2 million this year), and I think Nate Robinson has played himself to a pretty big contract, that and he's not really a PG either. Ramon Sessions or Raymond Felton would be awesome, but honestly, that's starting talent there, and there are probably teams with more money that are more desperate for a solid PG, that and, I don't think Milwaukee will let Ramon Sessions walk, at least not for cheap. So there go most of the good RFAs. I don't think Luther Head is the answer, but he's an option. Anthony Carter might be an option, but he's advancing in age (turns 34 in the summer), so can't say for sure how much his game might tail off, but he is doing a solid job backing up for Chauncey Bilups (5.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists in 24 minutes of play). Likewise the case for Brevin Knight, though he's been doing a somewhat less than admirable job in Utah (2.7 points, 1.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists in 14 minutes).
CJ Watson has been playing fairly well for the Golden State Warriors as of late, and he might be a viable option at a relatively cheaper price. It'll be interesting to see whether or not the Warriors decide to retain him. While he isn't a great PG, he's a solid defensive guard who can shoot decently, which definitely won't hurt.
Finally, it never hurts to have a backup wing, with Courtney Lee (or Mickael Pietrus, depending on who starts) they have a solid defensive minded player. I don't think they'll look to spend too much on this position, so maybe like an Ime Udoka or Matt Barnes would be sufficient, depending on who they sign in the other positions.
San Antonio Spurs
To be honest, the Spurs really don't have a whole lot in terms of flexibility. They're in slightly better shape in that they are under the luxury tax, but hard pressed to get under the cap should push come to shove. It makes it hard when your Big 3 makes up almost 80% of the salary cap. However, there are worse things than building around a core of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. There are 7 players remaining on contract if San Antonio doesn't make the qualifying offer to Michael Finley (and they shouldn't); Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, Fabricio Oberto, George Hill, Roger Mason, and Ian Mahinmi. Hill and Mahinmi are the future, and Spurs fans are all hoping that Mahinmi will fully develop next season once he recovers from injury, and playing with and behind Tim Duncan is defintitely a great way for a young big man to grow. Mason has definitely stepped it up, and is young enough (27) to continue making a difference for time to come, granted he has a questionable shot selection, but he's fairly cheap, and I think can integrate himself into the system more, while I would be hesitant on trading him, again, anything goes for the right price, only the Big 3 are truly off the table. That being said, all remaining contracts (Bowen, Oberto, Thomas, and Bonner) are all expiring, so they're more tradeable than before. Finley definitely has started to show his age, and I'm inclined to agree with most that he probably shouldn't play anymore, while letting him walk wouldn't put the Spurs under the salary cap (they'd still have $63.5 million on their payroll) it'd definitely keep them comfortably below the luxury tax threshold even should they spend their entire MLE.
Now if we look at the needs that San Antonio has, the main ones that jump out would be a solid big to play next to Tim Duncan, wings to replace the aging Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley, and some extra scoring outside of the big three somewhere between the two. Recently, the Spurs called up Pops Mensah-Bonsu from the Austion Toros to a 10-day contract, so we'll see how that pans out and if that works. If you were counting, the Spurs would have 10 players under contract, come 2009, so that would require them to sign 3-5 more players. Part of me is doubting that Tiago Splitter will ever play in the NBA and maybe Pops gives one of those slots back to Anthony Tolliver, who they tried out earlier this season. Which, while filling out their reserve big men slots doesn't really do a whole lot to fill their big men needs. Kurt Thomas is a solid defensive stop in a pinch, and Matt Bonner can shoot the three and spread the floor for Duncan while scoring a bit, but neither one is incredibly reliable on the other end of floor; Thomas will have another year of mileage and Spurs definitely want an improvement over Bonner in terms of size and defense.
In terms of big men, Spurs ideally would want someone that could play center, because while Duncan can (play center), it's probably not super ideal, especially as he gets older, you'd definitely want to limit the wear and tear on him. While the Spurs want to get younger, at the top of my list is definitely Rasheed Wallace. Granted Wallace is 34 going on 35, which is part of the reason Detroit is willing to part with him, however, I think that Wallace, who had expressed interest in playing for the Spurs, might be willing to sign for less (say a 2 year $7 million contract?). Granted the Spurs will have to make a few adjustments to make it work but Sheed brings everything that the Spurs are looking for to the floor (minus the age and the technicals). Wallace can shoot the three, and while not as great as Bonner, is good enough to be deemed a threat from long range, additionally, he's solid in the low post both offensively and defensively, and could probably split center assignments with Tim Duncan.
Another obvious stop plug that they could throw in that would be cheap would probably be Rasho Nesterovic, who has played with the Spurs before, and won in 2005 with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. That being said, he's on the wrong side of 30 and while he would be a great addition in the current season, doesn't look to be a huge improvement over their roster in the next, so it's sort of a last resort thing.
You know the big man market is kind of small when Zaza Pachulia is probably the best center available in free agency. However, say what you will about Zaza, he's a banger and is consistent. Don't know how much he'll claim on the market, but I don't know that Hawks would be able to keep him, he's also only 25 so there might be some upside. Hard to say, but definitely worth looking at.
Again for the reasons mentioned above, Drew Gooden and/or Chris Wilcox will be much coveted, however, I don't know that the Spurs would be able to match the offers they command. Both are arguably starting caliber PFs, but are they worth throwing the money at and keeping Tim Duncan for extended minutes at the center slot? Anderson Varejao may opt out as well, but I get the feeling that he's going to try to ask for more than he's actually worth.
In terms of wing players, ultimately it boils down to looking for a Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen replacement, meaning, 3s and defense. Additionally, I'm sure the Spurs would like to add a more legitimate scoring option outside of the Big 3, someone maybe to complement or step up over Roger Mason, who while he's been big, has also been somewhat inconsistent. This is where the free agency gets a little more interesting.
The first player I've been pushing for more playing time and I think would fit great on the Spurs is Walter Herrmann (aka Fabio). Herrmann has always had his minutes kind of fluctuate, but he's a great player, his size enables him to bother a lot of players on the perimeter on defense, and step in to guard power forwards in a pinch. I think he's one of the more underrated players in the league, and he's played before with Manu on the Argentinean national team. While he's only getting 8 minutes of burn on the Detroit bench, he's efficient at scoring when he does get playing time, his career per 36 minute stats boil out to 15.7 points, 6 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 2.1 threes 46.4% from the field and 38.8% beyond the arc. Herrmann does turn 30 this year, but I think he's still got a couple of years left in him. He's only signed to a $2 million contract right now with Detroit, and I think the Spurs should really think about throwing maybe $2.5 million (Michael Finley's contract) to $3 million for 2-3 years at him in addition to playing time.
Another player to take a close look at is Marvin Williams. Williams will be an RFA, but he's an athletic wing player (6-8) who's young (22) and shows a lot of promise. Williams was unable to work out a contract extension with the Hawks, and has often been (perhaps wrongly) maligned as the draft bust from the 2005 draft class. I think he's a solid player, but it's hard not to look bad when you're drafted (2nd) before Chris Paul (3rd) and Deron Williams (4th) and not 7 feet tall (like Andrew Bogut, drafted 1st). He's commanding $5.6 million right now, but given the economy and shrinking cap, it's possible that a lot of players (FAs) this year will take a pay cut from last year. Hawks have a number of expiring contracts (Mike Bibby, Zaza Pachulia, Flip Murray, etc...) so it's uncertain who they'd retain. That being said, the failure of Williams to sign an extension may mean he's outstayed his tenure in Atlanta, and a lot of teams could push hard for him, while the Spurs might not have the resources to snag a guy like Williams, it doesn't hurt to try, and Williams is definitely a guy they should look into. Being this young Williams is averaging 13.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists playing next to the likes of Mike Bibby, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith (and to some extent Al Horford). He's a solid spot up shooter, and has improved his 3pt shooting, and is a solid perimeter defender, which would make him a great fit on the Spurs.
Josh Childress is another interesting name to look at should he decide he's fed up with ball in Europe. However, given that Atlanta being unwilling to break the bank for him being the reason he left in the first place, there might not be a chance that Spurs would throw out a huge sum for him, and he may not want to come back given how teams probably would offer him an even smaller contract. Despite that, maybe the struggles of playing in Europe have made the 25 year old swing man long for the familiar turf of NBA basketball. While he doesn't have the bulk of Marvin Williams, Childress stands at 6-8 and possesses a long wing span, a respectable shot, and a fundamentally sound defense, I think definitely some the Spurs can work with.
Another former NBA player that Spurs could hope to lure from overseas might be Carlos Delfino, another Argentinean teammate of Manu's. I don't know that Toronto would be that pressed to keep him, though given their weakness in the wings, it's possible they'll match anything that any team would throw at him, again, he might be so unhappy with his role in the States that he opts to stay in Europe. Given that, he can shoot the three, which is something that Pops (Greg Popovich, not Pops Mensah-Bonsu) always looks for in his players.
Another wing player that stepped up big due to injuries (like Roger Mason) is Marquis Daniels. Daniels is 28 and playing excellent basketball, especially given the injuries the Pacers have had to Dunleavy and Granger. Not sure how he fits into the Pacer's future, but I think he could definitely be a solid fit in San Antonio.
Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers are one of the few teams who will have some sort of cap flexibility this coming off season. With Raef Lafrentz coming off the books and if they let Channing Frye walk, they'll have just shy of $4 million in cap space to work with. They're deep in several positions so they have a number of tradeable assets. I don't think Channing Frye is working out great for them so I don't see KP making a huge effort to match any offers thrown at Frye. The two weakest positions that the Blazers need to fill would be their point guard and small forward situations. While Martell Webster returning would certainly shore up their small forward spot, they can definitely do better. It's possible that Portland moves Steve Blake, Travis Outlaw, and Sergio Rodruiguez, and then use their MLE for another free agent signing.
One prominent name that I had in mind was Jason Kidd, who didn't seem to find his place back in Dallas. However, I believe that Kidd has the ability to improve and mentor the Blazer's young point guard of Jerryd Bayless. I posed this idea to Coup, one of the authors of The Rip City Project, and this is what he told me:
"The Kidd idea is great, IF you can get him to sign for a short midlevel contract, say 2 years with a team option for a third. That way we could sign him after using our cap space on younger options. The only worry for Kidd, assuming you can get him for a short contract, is his shooting. Imagine him taking all the open 3's Blake gets when Greg and LaMarcus are in the game...ugh. There is more merit than people realize to Kidd being around to mentor Bayless. It's one thing to have a sturdy vet like Blake teaching you the ropes, entirely something else to have a Hall of Famer take you under his wing. Defensively, you take the risk because you have Greg in the middle."Granted Kidd is 35, so he's definitely not commanding another $20 million a year, but the IF, in Coup's statement does ring true, could you get Kidd to sign to an MLE? Another option might be Andre Miller, but the same question applies, and arguably Miller has more game left in him than Kidd.
As for the wings, I think the Blazers are looking for a young guy who they can develop with their core of Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden. Hence, I proposed a trade for Rudy Gay, in compensation, trade Sergio (or Blake), Travis Outlaw and offer to take Marco Jaric's bloated contract off the books of Memphis. I also posed this question to Coup:
"As for Gay, I like but don't love him, just because I'm worried about the price. Outlaw and Sergio thrown in with our cap space for Gay and Jaric?... but I think they could deal with Jaric if they're getting Gay in return. Besides, after the extensions coming next fall, cap space will be a thing of the imagination. All in all, a lopsided trade thanks to the cap space is still the most likely way the Blazers make a splash."A big caveat for Gay is that he doesn't seem to always be focused, especially defensively, but maybe if he has a solid core around him, he'd be able to shine.
As mentioned above, like the Spurs, I think the Blazers might want to take a long hard look at Marvin Williams. Again, he might be asking for more than the Blazers want to pay, and maybe the Hawks will match anything they offer. However, Williams would be a solid addition to any team, and right now, he's one of the best available options to fit the Blazers' need at small forward.
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