Taking the Next Step: Part 2

Orlando Magic
59-23 in 2008-2009
Lost to LA Lakers 4-1 in NBA Finals

Orlando surprised a lot of people (not me though) by making their way to the NBA Finals past the defending champs in Boston and then the Eastern Conference favorites of LeBron and co in Cleveland. Upon reaching the big stage, they ran up against Western Conference powerhouse of the Los Angeles Lakers, where they were quickly downed in 5 games. Without a draft pick in a weak draft, and with little flexibility in their payroll, the Magic needed to make a change via trade, and while the offseason is still young, Magic have already made a good start in coming back as strong favorites in the East.

Vince Carter

The big deal that Otis Smith ended up landing to help the Magic, especially in late-game situations was a major trade of Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson. Despite being already 32, Vince Carter has shown that he still has game, averaging a solid 20.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game last season. A solid addition to the strong core Orlando already has based around Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Jameer Nelson. While Carter's contract is fairly unattractive, making upwards of $33 million over the next two seasons, with an $18 million team option in the 2011-2012 season. However, given the inflexibility of Orlando's payroll situation, it's a sacrifice that has to be made to add a player of Carter's caliber. The addition of another All-Star takes pressure off of the others on the roster already, and is mutually beneficial for both Carter and the rest of the Magic. It helps too that Carter has always wanted to play for Orlando (which is near his hometown).

Ryan Anderson

Ryan Anderson isn't exactly the name that pops to mind when you think of a player worth trading for, but at the very least, the Magic do get some youth to work with in return for sending Courtney Lee up to New Jersey. In essence, the Magic and Nets just swapped last year's draft picks (Nets drafted Anderson at number 21 and the Magic Lee at 22). Ben Q at Third Quarter Collapse does an apt analysis of what Ryan Anderson brings to the floor. As Ben Q points out, DraftExpress lists Ryan Anderson to have the upside of Troy Murphy, and potentially be as big of a dud as Brian Cook. Which is to say, that he'll probably end up somewhere in the middle, so to speak. At the very least Anderson is a big body that can sop up minutes at the backup PF spot and continue to spread the floor. This would be especially useful should Stan Van Gundy want at points in time to move Rashard Lewis back to SF slot and have a longer lineup.

The Free Agent Situation

Well, the Magic really only have the MLE to work with (somewhere between $5 million and $6 million) in order to fill their remaining roster slots. However, with potentially two big names on their way out, this could prove to be an interesting (and more difficult) situation for the Magic. First, is the situation with Hedo Turkoglu. Hedo has already opted out of his contract, and with the addition Carter's salary, it would be hard for the Magic to resign Hedo for much more than what he makes now. While Hedo has expressed interest in returning to the Magic, it's not certain whether he would opt for a 5 year $35 million deal in Orlando over something closer to a 5 year $50 million deal or something from someone like Portland with cap space. However, that's what Carter was for, worst case, he's an upgrade from Hedo, best case, he's a super addition and the Magic easily boast the best starting lineup in the entire league. Upgrade from Hedo? Really? I'm sure several Magic fans are wondering about that. Well here's how it breaks down, if we take their last season as indicative of what their 2009-2010 performance will be:

Per 36		FG%		3pt%		PTS		RBDS		ASSTS		STLS		BLKS		TOS
Player A		43.7%		38.5%		20.8		5.1		4.7		1.0		0.5		2.1
Player B		41.3%		35.6%		16.8		5.3		4.9		0.8		0.2		2.8

Who would you rather take? Well, save for 0.2 assists and 0.2 rebounds, player A is obviously better. For those of you that haven't guessed, Player A is Vince Carter, Player B is Hedo Turkoglu. Given that Turkoglu is a 6-10 small forward, you would expect him to rebound better than a 6-6 shooting guard, I'm not going to say it's a knock against Hedo but more lean towards the direction that Vince Carter is just that good of a player.

The second issue would be the issue of Marcin Gortat, who is an excellent backup big man. Let's look at some numbers first:

Per 36		FG%		PTS		RBDS		ASSTS		STLS		BLKS		TOS
Player A		54.8%		11.1		10.9		0.8		1.0		4.3		1.7
Player B		57.2%		10.9		13.0		0.6		0.8		2.4		1.1
Player C		40.0%		12.1		10.9		1.3		1.2		2.4		2.4

Comparatively, Player A looks to be the strongest player, though the rebounding rate and field goal percentage of Player B is significantly improved, the block rate of Player A is just phenomenal. Nonetheless, players A and B are both fairly comparable. Player A is Chris Andersen last season, why Chris Andersen? Well, DraftExpress lists him as Gortat's upside, as you may have guessed, Player B is Marcin Gortat, Player C, is Chris Andersen in his 2nd year, as Marcin Gortat was last season. Obviously Gortat will command some attention as one of the better big men in a league where it's difficult to find such talent, so it's possible that they would not be able to retain him, as he currently is had for the extraordinarily cheap salary of $700k.

Should the Magic retain both Turkoglu and Gortat (by some miracle) their lineup would look something like:

PG- Jameer Nelson, Anthony Johnson
SG- Vince Carter, JJ Redick
SF- Hedo Turkoglu, Mickael Pietrus
PF- Rashard Lewis, Ryan Anderson
C- Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat

However, if the Magic should lose out on keeping either or both of Hedo and Gortat, then I would presume Pietrus would slide to the starting SF spot and there would be holes at both the backup center and SF slots.

Possible Solutions

Well, there isn't a whole lot for the Magic to work with in terms of free agency, and they don't have a whole lot to trade with, so it'd be hard to figure out anything major. Likely, after all is said and done, the Magic will only have what's leftover from the remainder of the pickings from free agency, especially as they no longer really have any tradeable assets. I believe that should Hedo be lost to free agency, that Otis Smith should make a priority of re-signing Gortat, as it's easier to facilitate a solution at the SF position than it is to find a quality big man.

The Backup Center

There really aren't a whole lot of options when it comes to finding a solid backup big man for cheap. The Magic could always go back to Adonal Foyle, however, that's a major downgrade from the production that Gortat brings. Other names that come to mind that wouldn't be too expensive may possibly be Rasho Nesterocvic or Chris Mihm, possibly Zaza Pachulia as well. Ideally though, if I were the Magic, I would try to keep Marcin Gortat.

The Small Forward Issue

Since Hedo has opted out, the question ends up being where he will sign. If he does end up signing somewhere other than Orlando then the feasible solution would be to slide Pietrus to the starting SF slot as something of a defensive specialist (think Bruce Bowen on the Spurs) and find a legitimate backup SF, then finding someone via free agency to back him up. One name that possibly comes to mind would be Marquis Daniels, as the Pacers have let him walk. Daniels, while not a great 3 point shooter, does add solid defense and scoring off the bench. The question would be how well he embraces his role, especially given his performance last season in the wake of injuries to both Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger. The second question would be how cheap he could be had for. Ime Udoka and Matt Barnes are other names that pop to mind.

However, there is one other solution that I could possibly think of. That would be finding a legitimate starting PF that can play alongside Dwight Howard and sliding Rashard Lewis back to the SF slot, having Mickael Pietrus be the first man off the bench as a defensive stopper (think James Posey on the Celtics). Again the question would be whether or not Otis Smith could command such talent given the inflexibility of the budget, since he has to sign multiple players with such a limited amount of money. However, should Hedo walk, I would not be opposed to trying for someone like Antonio McDyess or Paul Millsap, or possibly even Drew Gooden.

Other Minor Issues

I think that while Anthony Johnson is an adequate backup point guard, I wouldn't mind trying to upgrade or bring in some young talent to develop as the 11th, 12th, or 13th man on the squad to fill out the roster.

That's basically my take on the Magic moving forward.