Monday, August 3, 2009

Does DeShawn Stevenson know what he's talking about?

I know players are supposed to be confident in their teams, I know they're supposed to say the right things, but making bold promises? That's pretty iffy. When you make a concrete guarantee, you're putting someone up to prove you wrong, especially if you haven't proven anything before. So, the latest of them has been from the Washington Wizards, with DeShawn Stevenson making this bold claim:

"If Gilbert is 70 percent, we're going win a lot of games. If Gilbert is 80 percent, we're going to be No. 1 in the East. If he's 100 percent, we might win a championship."
Obviously the Gilbert being referred to is none other than Wizard's captain Gilbert Arenas, aka Agent Zero. Does Stevenson's assessment of Arenas ring true? I don't know, as he's only played 15 games in the past two seasons, that's right, he's only seen floor time 15 out of the past 164 possible regular season games. While the "percent" that Agent Zero plays at may be arbitrary, Stevenson all but guarantees the Wizards to be at the top of the Eastern Conference. Is that even feasible with Gilbert at 100%? I'm dead serious, I'm sure Washington is a great team, but does having Gilbert Arenas automatically make them better than Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando? Hm.... Well, let's look at the rosters. The Washington Wizards boast a lineup likely of:

PG - Gilbert Arenas, Randy Foye, Javaris Crittenton
SG - Mike Miller, Nick Young, DeShawn Stevenson
SF - Caron Butler, Dominic McGuire
PF - Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche
C - Brendan Haywood, JaVale McGee

Okay, that's pretty impressive, but let's look at matchups:

Cleveland Cavaliers:

PG - Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson
SG - Delonte West, Anthony Parker
SF - LeBron James, Jamario Moon, Jawad Williams
PF - Anderson Varejao, Leon Powe, JJ Hickson
C - Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Boston Celtics:

PG - Rajon Rondo, Eddie House
SG - Ray Allen, Tony Allen
SF - Paul Pierce, Marquis Daniels, Bill Walker
PF - Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine
C - Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace

Orlando Magic:

PG - Jameer Nelson, Anthony Johnson
SG - Vince Carter, JJ Redick
SF - Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes
PF - Rashard Lewis, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson
C - Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat

Now let's assume 2006-2007 performance would be comparable to Gilbert Arenas at 100% and do some quick comparisons:

Per 36:

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Gilbert Arenas 2006-07 25 74 73 2942 7.9 18.9 .418 2.5 7.1 .351 7.4 8.8 .844 0.7 3.4 4.1 5.4 1.7 0.2 2.9 3.0 25.8
2 Jameer Nelson 2008-09 26 42 42 1309 7.3 14.6 .503 2.3 5.0 .453 2.4 2.7 .887 0.6 3.4 4.0 6.2 1.4 0.1 2.3 3.4 19.3
3 Rajon Rondo 2008-09 22 80 80 2642 5.2 10.3 .505 0.2 0.7 .313 2.3 3.7 .642 1.4 4.3 5.7 9.0 2.0 0.1 2.8 2.6 13.0
4 Mo Williams 2008-09 26 81 81 2834 6.7 14.3 .467 2.3 5.3 .436 2.6 2.9 .912 0.6 2.9 3.5 4.2 0.9 0.1 2.3 2.7 18.3

Advanced:

Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Gilbert Arenas 2006-07 25 74 2942 24.0 .565 .484 2.3 11.1 6.6 27.2 2.4 0.3 11.2 31.4 115 111 9.6 1.5 11.1
2 Jameer Nelson 2008-09 26 42 1309 20.6 .612 .580 1.8 10.5 6.2 32.1 2.0 0.2 12.6 23.2 121 103 3.9 2.1 6.0
3 Rajon Rondo 2008-09 22 80 2642 18.8 .543 .514 4.8 13.9 9.6 39.7 3.0 0.3 19.2 19.2 114 101 4.7 5.0 9.7
4 Mo Williams 2008-09 26 81 2834 17.2 .588 .548 2.1 9.4 5.9 20.1 1.3 0.3 12.7 23.4 115 106 5.9 3.6 9.4

Okay, well, in the PG battle, a healthy Gilbert Arenas obviously has the advantage. While Rajon Rondo and Jameer Nelson are still "breaking out" it's hard to imagine that either would mimic the production that Arenas, completely healthy would provide. However, remember, basketball is a team sport, certainly the Wizards would have the advantage if all other positions were a wash. While Williams of the four is the weakest PG performance wise, we also have to remember the roles each has on the team, Rondo and Williams have more facilitator roles whereas Arenas is the go-to guy. Nelson is a little harder to place as he's somewhere between the two.

Let's move on to the off-guard position:

Per 36:

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Ray Allen 2008-09 33 79 79 2876 6.2 13.0 .480 2.5 6.1 .409 3.0 3.1 .952 0.8 2.7 3.5 2.7 0.9 0.2 1.7 2.0 17.9
2 Vince Carter 2008-09 32 80 80 2946 7.2 16.4 .437 1.8 4.8 .385 4.1 5.0 .817 0.9 4.1 5.0 4.6 1.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 20.3
3 Mike Miller 2008-09 28 73 47 2356 4.0 8.4 .482 1.3 3.4 .378 1.7 2.3 .732 1.1 6.3 7.4 5.0 0.5 0.5 2.2 2.1 11.0
4 Delonte West 2008-09 25 64 64 2152 4.8 10.4 .457 1.5 3.8 .399 1.5 1.8 .833 0.5 2.9 3.4 3.8 1.6 0.2 1.5 2.1 12.6

Advanced:

Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Ray Allen 2008-09 33 79 2876 17.3 .624 .575 2.9 8.6 5.9 12.6 1.3 0.4 10.4 20.8 122 106 7.3 3.6 11.0
2 Vince Carter 2008-09 32 80 2946 19.3 .545 .493 3.0 13.8 8.3 23.7 1.5 1.1 9.8 26.8 112 112 5.6 1.8 7.4
3 Mike Miller 2008-09 28 73 2356 13.8 .588 .559 3.5 21.2 12.0 21.6 0.7 1.0 19.1 14.5 112 112 2.8 1.4 4.2
4 Delonte West 2008-09 25 64 2152 14.1 .559 .530 1.8 9.2 5.6 16.6 2.4 0.5 12.0 16.7 114 104 2.9 3.3 6.2

I understand that Mike Miller had his confidence shot last season and was plagued throughout the year by injuries, but even if we took the year before when he was healthy and playing well, the advantage still goes to Orlando in this matchup. Delonte West of course is the defensive presence on the Cavs so obviously he's fairly far down in the pecking order, but he does make a difference. Carter has been playing well despite all the nay-sayers and his age, as has Ray Allen, though Allen has been somewhat less consistent since joining the Celtics, but he is also the third option behind both Pierce and Garnett, so he's not getting a huge number of touches. While Miller adds a lot in other aspects other than scoring, he's also known for not being very good defensively. Definitely not making the difference for me here.

Onwards to the SF position:

Per 36:

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Caron Butler 2008-09 28 67 67 2585 6.8 15.1 .453 0.9 2.9 .310 4.8 5.6 .858 1.6 4.1 5.8 4.0 1.5 0.3 2.9 2.3 19.4
2 LeBron James 2008-09 24 81 81 3054 9.3 19.0 .489 1.6 4.5 .344 7.0 9.0 .780 1.2 6.0 7.2 6.9 1.6 1.1 2.8 1.6 27.2
3 Paul Pierce 2008-09 31 81 81 3035 6.4 14.0 .457 1.4 3.6 .391 5.4 6.6 .830 0.7 4.8 5.4 3.5 0.9 0.3 2.7 2.5 19.7
4 Mickael Pietrus 2008-09 26 54 25 1329 4.8 11.5 .413 2.2 6.0 .359 2.1 3.0 .709 1.2 3.6 4.8 1.8 0.8 0.7 1.5 3.4 13.8

Advanced:

Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Caron Butler 2008-09 28 67 2585 18.8 .552 .482 5.2 13.8 9.4 19.7 2.2 0.6 14.3 25.9 108 113 3.4 1.1 4.4
2 LeBron James 2008-09 24 81 3054 31.7 .591 .530 4.3 19.0 11.9 38.0 2.4 2.4 11.0 33.8 122 99 13.3 6.3 19.6
3 Paul Pierce 2008-09 31 81 3035 17.7 .582 .508 2.4 15.4 9.2 16.3 1.4 0.7 13.8 25.4 112 104 5.4 4.8 10.2
4 Mickael Pietrus 2008-09 26 54 1329 11.6 .538 .507 3.8 10.9 7.5 8.0 1.2 1.3 10.6 18.4 106 104 1.0 2.1 3.0

All of the starting forwards here save Pietrus are All-Stars. However, it's hard to dispute that LeBron would be in the best shape here, simply because he's LeBron. It's hard to argue against one of the best players in the league despite how good both Butler and Pierce are. Advantage here always goes to the Cavs so long as LeBron is healthy and playing.

At the PF slot:

Per 36:

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Kevin Garnett 2008-09 32 57 57 1772 8.0 15.0 .531 0.0 0.2 .250 2.3 2.7 .841 1.6 8.3 9.9 2.9 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.6 18.3
2 Antawn Jamison 2008-09 32 81 81 3096 7.8 16.8 .468 1.3 3.7 .351 4.0 5.3 .754 2.3 6.1 8.4 1.8 1.1 0.3 1.5 2.5 20.9
3 Rashard Lewis 2008-09 29 79 79 2859 6.0 13.7 .439 2.8 7.0 .397 2.8 3.4 .836 1.2 4.5 5.7 2.6 1.0 0.6 2.0 2.4 17.6
4 Anderson Varejao 2008-09 26 81 42 2306 4.2 7.9 .536 0.0 0.0 .000 2.4 3.9 .616 2.6 6.5 9.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.2 3.7 10.8

Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Kevin Garnett 2008-09 32 57 1772 21.2 .563 .532 5.6 26.7 16.6 14.7 1.9 3.1 10.1 23.4 112 98 3.0 4.1 7.0
2 Antawn Jamison 2008-09 32 81 3096 20.6 .549 .507 7.2 20.5 13.7 9.1 1.6 0.7 7.1 25.9 114 113 6.5 1.6 8.1
3 Rashard Lewis 2008-09 29 79 2859 16.8 .580 .540 3.7 13.9 8.9 12.5 1.5 1.3 11.6 22.0 113 103 4.7 4.9 9.6
4 Anderson Varejao 2008-09 26 81 2306 14.6 .565 .536 8.9 20.6 15.0 5.4 1.8 2.3 11.5 14.2 116 100 3.2 4.5 7.7

As well as Antawn Jamison has played, you can't really match the two-way intensity that Kevin Garnett brings to the floor. While his numbers have suffered, you have to realize that he now has Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to carry much of the offensive load on the team for him, so he's not required to do as much. The impact from Garnett is made mostly on the defensive end, and I find that Jamison and Lewis are a wash. Remember that Jamison played this previous year so well partially due to Arenas being out, he's not going to get as many touches if Arenas is back.

Finally the C position:

Per 36:

Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
1 Brendan Haywood 2007-08 28 80 80 2228 5.1 9.7 .528 0.0 0.0
3.5 4.8 .735 4.4 4.9 9.3 1.1 0.5 2.1 1.7 3.5 13.7
2 Dwight Howard 2008-09 23 79 79 2821 7.1 12.5 .572 0.0 0.0 .000 6.4 10.8 .594 4.3 9.7 13.9 1.4 1.0 2.9 3.1 3.4 20.7
3 Shaquille O'Neal 2008-09 36 75 75 2252 8.2 13.4 .609 0.0 0.0 .000 4.9 8.3 .595 3.0 7.1 10.1 2.0 0.8 1.7 2.7 4.0 21.3
4 Kendrick Perkins 2008-09 24 76 76 2253 4.4 7.6 .577 0.0 0.0 .000 1.5 2.6 .600 3.3 6.6 9.9 1.5 0.4 2.4 2.6 4.0 10.4


Advanced:

Rk Player Season Age G MP PER TS% eFG% ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG% ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS
1 Brendan Haywood 2007-08 28 80 2228 18.3 .582 .528 14.0 16.4 15.2 5.2 0.7 5.0 12.9 17.3 119 109 4.7 1.8 6.6
2 Dwight Howard 2008-09 23 79 2821 25.4 .600 .572 13.8 29.5 21.8 7.3 1.4 5.9 15.1 26.1 113 95 6.2 7.6 13.9
3 Shaquille O'Neal 2008-09 36 75 2252 22.3 .623 .609 10.1 22.3 16.4 8.9 1.1 3.5 13.6 24.2 117 109 5.9 2.3 8.2
4 Kendrick Perkins 2008-09 24 76 2253 13.2 .591 .577 11.5 21.4 16.7 6.5 0.5 5.3 23.1 14.8 105 100 1.1 4.4 5.5


It's hard to not give Dwight Howard and the Magic the advantage at this position. Even if Haywood replicates his performance from before his injury, it's not really even close, even an aging Shaq can be more effective than Haywood.

Now I can't feasibly say that the Washington bench is significantly better if better at all than those of Cleveland, Boston, or Orlando, so if we presume those and coaching a wash, the Wizards still fall behind Orlando, and I would put them behind both Cleveland and Boston as well. At best, they can hope for the playoffs at 4th seed, and therefore not have to face one of those top three in the first round.

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