Does DeShawn Stevenson know what he's talking about?

I know players are supposed to be confident in their teams, I know they're supposed to say the right things, but making bold promises? That's pretty iffy. When you make a concrete guarantee, you're putting someone up to prove you wrong, especially if you haven't proven anything before. So, the latest of them has been from the Washington Wizards, with DeShawn Stevenson making this bold claim:

"If Gilbert is 70 percent, we're going win a lot of games. If Gilbert is 80 percent, we're going to be No. 1 in the East. If he's 100 percent, we might win a championship."

Obviously the Gilbert being referred to is none other than Wizard's captain Gilbert Arenas, aka Agent Zero. Does Stevenson's assessment of Arenas ring true? I don't know, as he's only played 15 games in the past two seasons, that's right, he's only seen floor time 15 out of the past 164 possible regular season games. While the "percent" that Agent Zero plays at may be arbitrary, Stevenson all but guarantees the Wizards to be at the top of the Eastern Conference. Is that even feasible with Gilbert at 100%? I'm dead serious, I'm sure Washington is a great team, but does having Gilbert Arenas automatically make them better than Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando? Hm.... Well, let's look at the rosters. The Washington Wizards boast a lineup likely of:

PG - Gilbert Arenas, Randy Foye, Javaris Crittenton
SG - Mike Miller, Nick Young, DeShawn Stevenson
SF - Caron Butler, Dominic McGuire
PF - Antawn Jamison, Andray Blatche
C - Brendan Haywood, JaVale McGee

Okay, that's pretty impressive, but let's look at matchups:

Cleveland Cavaliers:

PG - Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson
SG - Delonte West, Anthony Parker
SF - LeBron James, Jamario Moon, Jawad Williams
PF - Anderson Varejao, Leon Powe, JJ Hickson
C - Shaquille O'Neal, Zydrunas Ilgauskas

Boston Celtics:

PG - Rajon Rondo, Eddie House
SG - Ray Allen, Tony Allen
SF - Paul Pierce, Marquis Daniels, Bill Walker
PF - Kevin Garnett, Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine
C - Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace

Orlando Magic:

PG - Jameer Nelson, Anthony Johnson
SG - Vince Carter, JJ Redick
SF - Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes
PF - Rashard Lewis, Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson
C - Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat

Now let's assume 2006-2007 performance would be comparable to Gilbert Arenas at 100% and do some quick comparisons:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Gilbert Arenas	2006-07	25	74	73	2942	7.9	18.9	.418	2.5	7.1	.351	7.4	8.8	.844	0.7	3.4	4.1	5.4	1.7	0.2	2.9	3.0	25.8
2	Jameer Nelson	2008-09	26	42	42	1309	7.3	14.6	.503	2.3	5.0	.453	2.4	2.7	.887	0.6	3.4	4.0	6.2	1.4	0.1	2.3	3.4	19.3
3	Rajon Rondo	2008-09	22	80	80	2642	5.2	10.3	.505	0.2	0.7	.313	2.3	3.7	.642	1.4	4.3	5.7	9.0	2.0	0.1	2.8	2.6	13.0
4	Mo Williams	2008-09	26	81	81	2834	6.7	14.3	.467	2.3	5.3	.436	2.6	2.9	.912	0.6	2.9	3.5	4.2	0.9	0.1	2.3	2.7	18.3

Advanced:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Gilbert Arenas	2006-07	25	74	2942	24.0	.565	.484	2.3	11.1	6.6	27.2	2.4	0.3	11.2	31.4	115	111	9.6	1.5	11.1
2	Jameer Nelson	2008-09	26	42	1309	20.6	.612	.580	1.8	10.5	6.2	32.1	2.0	0.2	12.6	23.2	121	103	3.9	2.1	6.0
3	Rajon Rondo	2008-09	22	80	2642	18.8	.543	.514	4.8	13.9	9.6	39.7	3.0	0.3	19.2	19.2	114	101	4.7	5.0	9.7
4	Mo Williams	2008-09	26	81	2834	17.2	.588	.548	2.1	9.4	5.9	20.1	1.3	0.3	12.7	23.4	115	106	5.9	3.6	9.4

Okay, well, in the PG battle, a healthy Gilbert Arenas obviously has the advantage. While Rajon Rondo and Jameer Nelson are still "breaking out" it's hard to imagine that either would mimic the production that Arenas, completely healthy would provide. However, remember, basketball is a team sport, certainly the Wizards would have the advantage if all other positions were a wash. While Williams of the four is the weakest PG performance wise, we also have to remember the roles each has on the team, Rondo and Williams have more facilitator roles whereas Arenas is the go-to guy. Nelson is a little harder to place as he's somewhere between the two.

Let's move on to the off-guard position:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Ray Allen	2008-09	33	79	79	2876	6.2	13.0	.480	2.5	6.1	.409	3.0	3.1	.952	0.8	2.7	3.5	2.7	0.9	0.2	1.7	2.0	17.9
2	Vince Carter	2008-09	32	80	80	2946	7.2	16.4	.437	1.8	4.8	.385	4.1	5.0	.817	0.9	4.1	5.0	4.6	1.0	0.5	2.0	2.9	20.3
3	Mike Miller	2008-09	28	73	47	2356	4.0	8.4	.482	1.3	3.4	.378	1.7	2.3	.732	1.1	6.3	7.4	5.0	0.5	0.5	2.2	2.1	11.0
4	Delonte West	2008-09	25	64	64	2152	4.8	10.4	.457	1.5	3.8	.399	1.5	1.8	.833	0.5	2.9	3.4	3.8	1.6	0.2	1.5	2.1	12.6

Advanced:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Ray Allen	2008-09	33	79	2876	17.3	.624	.575	2.9	8.6	5.9	12.6	1.3	0.4	10.4	20.8	122	106	7.3	3.6	11.0
2	Vince Carter	2008-09	32	80	2946	19.3	.545	.493	3.0	13.8	8.3	23.7	1.5	1.1	9.8	26.8	112	112	5.6	1.8	7.4
3	Mike Miller	2008-09	28	73	2356	13.8	.588	.559	3.5	21.2	12.0	21.6	0.7	1.0	19.1	14.5	112	112	2.8	1.4	4.2
4	Delonte West	2008-09	25	64	2152	14.1	.559	.530	1.8	9.2	5.6	16.6	2.4	0.5	12.0	16.7	114	104	2.9	3.3	6.2

I understand that Mike Miller had his confidence shot last season and was plagued throughout the year by injuries, but even if we took the year before when he was healthy and playing well, the advantage still goes to Orlando in this matchup. Delonte West of course is the defensive presence on the Cavs so obviously he's fairly far down in the pecking order, but he does make a difference. Carter has been playing well despite all the nay-sayers and his age, as has Ray Allen, though Allen has been somewhat less consistent since joining the Celtics, but he is also the third option behind both Pierce and Garnett, so he's not getting a huge number of touches. While Miller adds a lot in other aspects other than scoring, he's also known for not being very good defensively. Definitely not making the difference for me here.

Onwards to the SF position:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Caron Butler	2008-09	28	67	67	2585	6.8	15.1	.453	0.9	2.9	.310	4.8	5.6	.858	1.6	4.1	5.8	4.0	1.5	0.3	2.9	2.3	19.4
2	LeBron James	2008-09	24	81	81	3054	9.3	19.0	.489	1.6	4.5	.344	7.0	9.0	.780	1.2	6.0	7.2	6.9	1.6	1.1	2.8	1.6	27.2
3	Paul Pierce	2008-09	31	81	81	3035	6.4	14.0	.457	1.4	3.6	.391	5.4	6.6	.830	0.7	4.8	5.4	3.5	0.9	0.3	2.7	2.5	19.7
4	Mickael Pietrus	2008-09	26	54	25	1329	4.8	11.5	.413	2.2	6.0	.359	2.1	3.0	.709	1.2	3.6	4.8	1.8	0.8	0.7	1.5	3.4	13.8

Advanced:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Caron Butler	2008-09	28	67	2585	18.8	.552	.482	5.2	13.8	9.4	19.7	2.2	0.6	14.3	25.9	108	113	3.4	1.1	4.4
2	LeBron James	2008-09	24	81	3054	31.7	.591	.530	4.3	19.0	11.9	38.0	2.4	2.4	11.0	33.8	122	99	13.3	6.3	19.6
3	Paul Pierce	2008-09	31	81	3035	17.7	.582	.508	2.4	15.4	9.2	16.3	1.4	0.7	13.8	25.4	112	104	5.4	4.8	10.2
4	Mickael Pietrus	2008-09	26	54	1329	11.6	.538	.507	3.8	10.9	7.5	8.0	1.2	1.3	10.6	18.4	106	104	1.0	2.1	3.0

All of the starting forwards here save Pietrus are All-Stars. However, it's hard to dispute that LeBron would be in the best shape here, simply because he's LeBron. It's hard to argue against one of the best players in the league despite how good both Butler and Pierce are. Advantage here always goes to the Cavs so long as LeBron is healthy and playing.

At the PF slot:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Kevin Garnett	2008-09	32	57	57	1772	8.0	15.0	.531	0.0	0.2	.250	2.3	2.7	.841	1.6	8.3	9.9	2.9	1.3	1.4	1.8	2.6	18.3
2	Antawn Jamison	2008-09	32	81	81	3096	7.8	16.8	.468	1.3	3.7	.351	4.0	5.3	.754	2.3	6.1	8.4	1.8	1.1	0.3	1.5	2.5	20.9
3	Rashard Lewis	2008-09	29	79	79	2859	6.0	13.7	.439	2.8	7.0	.397	2.8	3.4	.836	1.2	4.5	5.7	2.6	1.0	0.6	2.0	2.4	17.6
4	Anderson Varejao	2008-09	26	81	42	2306	4.2	7.9	.536	0.0	0.0	.000	2.4	3.9	.616	2.6	6.5	9.1	1.3	1.2	1.0	1.2	3.7	10.8

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Kevin Garnett	2008-09	32	57	1772	21.2	.563	.532	5.6	26.7	16.6	14.7	1.9	3.1	10.1	23.4	112	98	3.0	4.1	7.0
2	Antawn Jamison	2008-09	32	81	3096	20.6	.549	.507	7.2	20.5	13.7	9.1	1.6	0.7	7.1	25.9	114	113	6.5	1.6	8.1
3	Rashard Lewis	2008-09	29	79	2859	16.8	.580	.540	3.7	13.9	8.9	12.5	1.5	1.3	11.6	22.0	113	103	4.7	4.9	9.6
4	Anderson Varejao	2008-09	26	81	2306	14.6	.565	.536	8.9	20.6	15.0	5.4	1.8	2.3	11.5	14.2	116	100	3.2	4.5	7.7

As well as Antawn Jamison has played, you can't really match the two-way intensity that Kevin Garnett brings to the floor. While his numbers have suffered, you have to realize that he now has Paul Pierce and Ray Allen to carry much of the offensive load on the team for him, so he's not required to do as much. The impact from Garnett is made mostly on the defensive end, and I find that Jamison and Lewis are a wash. Remember that Jamison played this previous year so well partially due to Arenas being out, he's not going to get as many touches if Arenas is back.

Finally the C position:

Per 36:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	Brendan Haywood	2007-08	28	80	80	2228	5.1	9.7	.528	0.0	0.0		3.5	4.8	.735	4.4	4.9	9.3	1.1	0.5	2.1	1.7	3.5	13.7
2	Dwight Howard	2008-09	23	79	79	2821	7.1	12.5	.572	0.0	0.0	.000	6.4	10.8	.594	4.3	9.7	13.9	1.4	1.0	2.9	3.1	3.4	20.7
3	Shaquille O'Neal	2008-09	36	75	75	2252	8.2	13.4	.609	0.0	0.0	.000	4.9	8.3	.595	3.0	7.1	10.1	2.0	0.8	1.7	2.7	4.0	21.3
4	Kendrick Perkins	2008-09	24	76	76	2253	4.4	7.6	.577	0.0	0.0	.000	1.5	2.6	.600	3.3	6.6	9.9	1.5	0.4	2.4	2.6	4.0	10.4

Advanced:

Rk	Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS
1	Brendan Haywood	2007-08	28	80	2228	18.3	.582	.528	14.0	16.4	15.2	5.2	0.7	5.0	12.9	17.3	119	109	4.7	1.8	6.6
2	Dwight Howard	2008-09	23	79	2821	25.4	.600	.572	13.8	29.5	21.8	7.3	1.4	5.9	15.1	26.1	113	95	6.2	7.6	13.9
3	Shaquille O'Neal	2008-09	36	75	2252	22.3	.623	.609	10.1	22.3	16.4	8.9	1.1	3.5	13.6	24.2	117	109	5.9	2.3	8.2
4	Kendrick Perkins	2008-09	24	76	2253	13.2	.591	.577	11.5	21.4	16.7	6.5	0.5	5.3	23.1	14.8	105	100	1.1	4.4	5.5

It's hard to not give Dwight Howard and the Magic the advantage at this position. Even if Haywood replicates his performance from before his injury, it's not really even close, even an aging Shaq can be more effective than Haywood.

Now I can't feasibly say that the Washington bench is significantly better if better at all than those of Cleveland, Boston, or Orlando, so if we presume those and coaching a wash, the Wizards still fall behind Orlando, and I would put them behind both Cleveland and Boston as well. At best, they can hope for the playoffs at 4th seed, and therefore not have to face one of those top three in the first round.