Early Playoff Predictions v1.0: Eastern Conference

I know, I know, I know, the season hasn't even started yet and I'm already putting this up? I haven't seen, heard, nor smelled word of a major move in the near future (of course who saw Marcus Camby for nothing, or as I put it, less than Marcus Williams?) so I'll amend this in the event anything major comes up. I mean, thusfar moves I've seen are like a Brevin Knight for Jason Hart swap, which to me, was as epic as Taureen Green for Von Wafer (if you don't know who I'm talking about, that's my point exactly). So I'm going to come out and call my favorites and who I think is going to be good, well before EA ever does (with their releases of NBA Live 2009 and NBA 2k9). If you see these teams as being unfairly stacked when you get your copy of 2k9 then you'll know they read my blog, just kidding.

For now let's just start with the Eastern Conference:

1.) Boston Celtics

They've lost James Posey, they've lost PJ Brown, everyone is another year older. However, I feel that they've also had the time to get familiar with each other, feel each other out. I'm not overly impressed with the addition of Patrick O'Bryant, but who knows, maybe Kevin Garnett will somehow herd him into a weight room and get him in shape. All in all, the core of this team is the same, and I only really see room for improvement from Rajon Rondo, Glenn Davis, and Leon Powe. Resigning Eddie House and Tony Allen was a good move, which keeps their bench versatile. They don't have a real James Posey replacement yet, but I think they'll try to have Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine try to replace it, maybe they'll find someone worth picking up from free agency (bring back Ricky Davis! hehehe). All in all, the team that dominated the Eastern Conference and the NBA as a whole last season will continue to do so this season, again, major concern: health especially for Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, but it's not too bad. I still see them on the top, and a definite contender, I can easily see them repeating.

2.) Detroit Pistons

They're a perennial shoe-in, they're the Spurs of the East. However, there may be some major moves as the starting 5 have been here since the 2004 championship and they've been ousted in the Eastern Conference Finals every year ever since. Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace are showing their age and I think are the most likely to get moved (most likely Sheed) if anyone does. However, given their current configuration, I can't see them not winning. All in all, I'm not too impressed with their level of play given Flip Saunders's no double-teaming defensive strategy, which essentially is the kind of game that plays into the hands of someone like LeBron. However, I'll leave them up at the top as usual, because with the extra year I don't see them getting much rustier, Tayshaun Prince seems to be developing an offensive game to match his defensive tenacity, which I believe offsets any sign of age and wear on Antonio McDyess. Additionally, Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell really impressed a lot of people last season (myself included) with their high level of play, young big man Amir Johnson seems to have a lot of potential as well.

3.) Orlando Magic

This team I think can only get better. A lot of their loss to Detroit last year in the second round of the playoffs had to do with an cracked sternum that Dwight Howard sustained during the playoffs, and I think they have only improved their roster. Mickael Pietrus is by no means an All-Star addition, but "Air France" is an improvement (in my books) over Keith Bogans and Maurice Evans. I look for Dwight Howard to get a renewed sense of competition from the Olympics, and Hedo Turkoglu to polish his game a little more. Granted with the discovery that Turkoglu is All-Star material, Rashard Lewis has been somewhat relegated to a catch and shoot guy, I still think they can figure out an offense that involves Lewis more, he adds a lot of versatility to the team, and with Turkoglu and Lewis on the wings it gives the team a lot of flexibility by spreading the defense. If Dwight Howard can develop a couple more moves (right now I think he's like a giant Shawn Kemp) I think that Orlando should be included as contention material. Anthony Johnson is a solid backup, they just need Jameer Nelson to develop a more consistent game, maybe getting married will help him a little.

4.) Philadelphia 76ers

They've sort of been the talk of the town since they stole Elton Brand from the LA Clippers and their recent acquisition; Baron Davis. With Brand sliding into the starting PF slot in front of Reggie Evans, the 76ers added the one thing they lacked last year in the playoffs, instant offense in the frontcourt. When healthy Brand is easily a 20-10 threat every game. This will ease a lot of the offensive strain on Samuel Dalembert who I believe will flourish even more now that he can share the paint with an All-Star. This also adds leadership and veterancy in addition to the floor leader Andre Miller has become, and so long as the 76ers hold onto Andre Iguodala, they'll have one of the strongest teams in the league. Willie Green can rack it up easily from the perimeter, and add in the speed and athleticism of Thaddeus Young then they are a young and deadly team. Reggie Evans is a great hustle player, and while he's not a great starter I think will thrive off the bench as a backup to Brand. If the 76ers resign Louis Williams, he adds a lot of energy and explosiveness off the bench as well. All in all, a solid team now, also given the work ethic and the mentality of Elton Brand, I see him being a great locker room influence on all the younger players as well. The surprise 7th seed that took Detroit to 6 games just got a lot better, a heck of a lot better.

5.) Toronto Raptors

If a frontcourt of Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert looks scary, I think that one of Chris Bosh and Jermaine O'Neal is even more potent. The only reason I have them falling to 5 behind Philly is because I'm leery of Jermaine O'Neal's sustainability health-wise. The only way I see Toronto staying up here and having a run at the title is if O'Neal can stay healthy for like 62 games (about 75% of the regular season) and also for the post season as well. If not I see them being something akin to the Wizards, always someone injured, rather, always an All-Star injured. I see Jose Calderon really thriving now that he has full control of the offense, and with Bosh's ability to spread the floor with his range, O'Neal doesn't have to work quite as hard to create the offense, add on a slew of perimeter shooters in Anthony Parker, Jason Kapono, and Andrea Bargnani, it really stacks up. I also see a lot of upside for Jamario Moon. All in all, health remains the concern, but I like this team a lot now.

6.) Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas thinks that they're one of the top 5 teams in the NBA when they're healthy, maybe he's right, I personally don't buy it. This is a team that always looks good on paper but somehow always fails to meet expectations. I almost think I can count the number of times Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison took the floor together on my fingers over the past two seasons. I don't think it ever happened in the playoffs, maybe round 1 last season. They're good, but they're also pretty soft defensively. We have yet to see how well Arenas plays on his twice surgically repaired knee, and their defense has always been called into question. All in all, they are considered one of the softer defenses in the league, which, and I don't see that improving. Maybe health is a continual concern, but they've had no roster changes save for losing Roger Mason Jr to the Spurs, this team has been together for a while, and really haven't proven anything with it yet. Maybe things will be different this year, maybe they'll all be healthy again, I wouldn't hold my breath, because I told myself the same thing last season. Agent 0 wants a trophy to go with $111 million dollar contract, I don't think he's going to get one.

7.) Cleveland Cavaliers

While I can't really blame Mike Brown for how he runs his offense, a lot of the failure of the Cavs has been just that, how Mike Brown runs his offense. In short, his offensive set begins and ends with something like this; "Pass the ball to LeBron". With a talent like LeBron, I don't know that I'd do anything significantly different, however, given the talent surrounding LeBron (or lack thereof), it makes the Cavs very one-dimensional and easy to defend. It's not that the Cavs don't have a slew of weapons on the offense, it's just that teams always know where it's going to start, and can plug the offense there. That being said, Joe Smith on the post or Wally Sczerbiak and Daniel Gibson on the wings don't really inspire fear in me. One of my biggest criticisms of the Cavs roster is that all of their players can only do one thing, except for LeBron James and Zydraunas Ilgauskas, you have to sacrifice something for every player you put on the floor. Therefore, the roster keeps cylcing depending on the situations and the Cavs I feel can't get a whole lot of momentum going. You sacrifice offense when Eric Snow and Ben Wallace are on the floor, you sacrifice defense when you put Joe Smith in the game. Maybe LeBron needs to leave for a legitimate play set to be called, the only other option I see for Cleveland is to find someone legitimate to put next to LeBron, and no, Wally Sczerbiak is not legitimate. They need someone else to handle the ball to, someone else that can create on offense. Right now, they just have LeBron, and as good as he is and will be, that's just not enough.

8.) Miami Heat

While they may be far from being legitimate contenders again, I still see them being somewhat relevant in the Eastern Conference. With Wade coming back 100% I think they have a legitimate shot. Udonis Haslem is a solid player and I like the Dwayne Wade-Shawn Marion combo a lot more than I liked the Dwayne Wade-Shaquille O'Neal combo. They're a faster, more versatile team, we'll see how new head coach Eric Spolestra does in his first year, but he's got the talent to work with. A lot of it I think is going to fall with their two starting caliber rookies Mario Chalmers and Michael Beasley, summer league isn't saying much but they showed promise there. If they can play to maybe about 3/4 the level of expectations I see the Heat regaining some legitimacy. Not sure what they'll do for their backup point guard, maybe Chris Quinn will come back, otherwise, not sure, the biggest problem will be the center, I'm not overly impressed with Mark Blount and I'm even more leery about Earl Barron, however, if the remaining starting 4, that is (in my opinion); Chalmers, Wade, Marion, and Beasley step it up, then I don't see it being a huge issue. In fact, maybe the Heat will play small and start Haslem as a center if the starting 4 work out well (that'd be interesting, I'd have a bad feeling abou it, but interesting nonetheless).

Those are my 8 Eastern Conference playoff bound teams based purely on speculation thusfar. Of course people might look at me and ask "What about such and such a team?" On the bubble I'm going to put Miluakee, Atlanta, and Chicago, in that order. While the Miluakee Bucks made a huge upgrade of Richard Jefferson from Desmond Mason, if they don't find a way to get to a pass first guard like Ramon Sessions which entails getting rid of a shoot first guard like Mo Williams, then it'll be hard. Bogut has shown signs of promise but honestly hasn't been overly impressive to me, I just think the Bucks have too many slapdash pieces to really make it anywhere. A Michael Redd-Richard Jefferson combo is nice, but the other pieces are just not there, don't know that Villanueva, Mason, and company are the role players needed, it's Miluakee. The length of time that Atlanta is taking to sign Josh Smith and the prompt loss of Josh Childress to Greece really has me scratching my head at the front office, and even if they manage to keep Josh Smith somehow, I don't see him being happy in Atlanta, and honestly I don't even think they'll be able to keep him. I won't be surprised if he starts barking for a trade. They have a decent team, just mismangement, maybe it's the curse of Marvin Williams. Everyone seems to see something in Chicago that I don't. They have a lot of potential, but that's it, to me they're not significantly improved from the "potential" in Minnesota, and quite frankly, I think Al Jefferson is way more productive than Ben Gordon or Luol Deng. They pleasantly surprised a lot of people two seasons ago with their trip to the 2nd round of the Eastern Conference playoffs but I don't really think they're that good. Even if they keep Deng I don't think he's a solid go-to guy, he won't carry the team offensively, and all the other parts around him are too inconsistent. Bulls are rebuilding and need to develop their youth, they're not quite as far removed from the Oklahoma City Thunder (that leaves a bad taste in my mouth for some reason), but I don't think they'll make it this year, or the next, to be frank.