Early Playoff Predictions v1.0: Western Conference

So I posted my 2008-2009 playoff predictions for the Eastern Conference, and call me audacious if you will, but until a major move comes along or someone breaks their knees in training camp, then version 1.0 remains the version that I will hold to. As implicitly promised, since I did it for the Eastern Conference, here is my call for the Western Conference.

1.) Los Angeles Lakers

No surprise here, the incumbent Western Conference champions to return to the number 1 slot. It may take Bynum a while to get back into game shape but when he does this is a fairly scary roster. Granted it's already scary when you have the best player in the NBA on your team, but tack onto that a frontcourt made up of a 20 year old 7 footer with massive upside and arguably the best player from Spain (who also happens to be 7 feet tall) and you have a scary roster. Of course, the big if, is whether or not Andrew Bynum does come back 100%. However, look for Pau Gasol to slide over to the PF position and try to find his midrange 10-15 jumper again. With Kobe Bryant at the center of the offense and Derrick Fisher sitting at the wings jacking up threes, it's really hard to think of a way to stop this team, especially with the excellent team passing that this team has. This is the ideal roster for Phil Jackson's triangle offense, with one slight kink; they need an SF that can play defense, but also one that can shoot. Currently the slew of candidates don't look very promising. Either Vladamir Radmonivic needs to learn to play defense or Trevor Ariza or Lamar Odom have to develop a jump shot. The easiest solution would be to trade Lamar Odom for someone that fits the bill, honestly I think the best fit would be either Bruce Bowen or Tayshaun Prince, however I'd settle for Caron Butler or Gerald Wallace as well. I've been told that Phil Jackson may want to keep Odom and try out a massive frontcourt with Odom at the SF position, enabling the Lakers to essentially clog the entier baseline. If I were to run the Lakers lineup I'd start Ariza and move Odom as a 6th man off the bench behind Gasol, they need his rebounding more, and that's where he'd be most effective, if he could run the offense for the second squad, I see him thriving.

2.) New Orleans Hornets

They were the feel good NBA story of the year last season, with Chris Paul at the helm it seemed like nothing could go wrong. Of course, depth is always an issue with this squad, however you can't get a starting five better than Paul, Morris Peterson, Peja Stojakovic, David West, and Tyson Chandler. Granted Peja is reaching an older age, but they just need him to heave those threes with abandon when Paul collapses the defense. West is still athletic and explosive and has that killer mid range jumper, and Tyson Chandler is just a monster down low gobbling up everything off the glass. Jannero Pargo needs to develop a more consistent game but has shown that he's somewhat reliable as a backup and the acquisition of James Posey makes them very tenacious defensively off the bench. I think they might have overpaid for him a little, but hey, maybe he's worth it, he's got a ring with Miami and another with most recently Boston, where he was heralded as the difference maker. My primary concern is with the depth in their frontcourt, Hilton Armstrong and Melvin Ely aren't exactly premier reserve big men and Hornets have shown that they struggle a lot when David West is out of the game. Hopefully they can solve that somehow. Oh yes, and we can't forget that they still have Mike James.

3.) San Antonio Spurs

Ok, so they're old. The biggest thing they need to work on is conserving Manu Ginobili's health and energy. The 7 game series with New Orleans killed them leaving (at least Manu) with almost nothing going into the series against the Lakers. However, Tony Parker and Tim Duncan still I consider regular and consistent contributors. I like the addition of Roger Mason, when he did get playing time (because both Gilbert Arenas and Antonio Daniels were injured) he put up some very good numbers. He's athletic and he can score, big improvement over Jacque Vaughn. I've heard murmurings of trying to get JR Smith and I think that if any one can whip him into shape it'd be Greg Popovich, I think Smith would have a lot of upside, but of course, that's all heresay. Resigning Kurt Thomas was a solid move and George Hill looks to be a potentially solid addition as a rookie. The core is pretty much the same with Bruce Bown, Fabricio Oberto, and company staying on, I'd look for something of a Michael Finley replacement (JR Smith!) but all in all, another solid year from the most solid club in the league. Pity they couldn't convince Tiago Splitter to join ranks, that, would've been crazy. Just one more shot Robert Horry, that's all we're asking for.

4.) Utah Jazz

They're squad is solid, I think Andrei Kirilenko is learning that he doesn't have to be the goto guy on offense to produce. I'm a little alarmed at how Carlos Boozer sort of faded during the playoffs, but with his play, I think he needs to adapt to how the refs call the games nowadays a little more, and he'll be fine. Solid job of extending Deron Williams on the part of Utah's front office, and I think given the scoring options here, Brevin Knight would be a serviceable backup. I expect Ronnie Brewer and Paul Milsap to continue to grow and improve, and as usual Kyle Korver is there as the perimeter threat, it'd help if they could add another one, but they have Mehmet Okur as well, and their rookie, Koufa Kosta, who while a little on the slow side is said to absorb contact well and by all reports be a younger Okur. Sloan is as always the pick and roll master and he runs a solid club, even if they don't win anything they're always top 5 in the West for the next few years in my opinion. Solid, young club that just looks to keep getting better and better.

5.) Houston Rockets

I think everyone is hoping that Rafer Alston's emergence after Yao's injury was not a fluke. Look for Luis Scola to continue to develop, and the 40 point game Donte Green laid out at Summer League leaves Houston fans hopeful. There's a lot going on for them and health will always be the perennial issue and the plague of the Houston Rockets, too much rides on the back and frail feet of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. Additionally, the fact that Shane Battier has to undergo surgery over the offseason is not great news either, hopefully he can recover 100% for next season. All in all a solid club, just hoping for the All-Stars to stay healthy and the role-players to step it up. They still need a legitimate third option to emerge, maybe Brent Barry will get a lot more playing time now, but their glut of guards still kind of confuses me, between Barry they also have to split time with Alston, McGrady, Aaron Brooks, Luther Head, and Bobby Jackson. My call is Brooks goes to the D-League or becomes something of a permanent bench warmer. I don't dislike the team, but relying on both McGrady and Yao to have healthy seasons is really asking for a lot.

6.) Portland Trailblazers

I'm sure a lot of people are looking at me funny for putting the Blazers this high, and maybe I am crazy for doing so. However, I love this how this squad looks and honestly I think it only gets better. Let's just look at this upcoming season though. Last season when Greg Oden had to get season ending microfracture surgery on his knee before the season even started, everyone thought it was over, boy did the Blazers prove us wrong. Spearheaded by Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge the Blazers put together an impressive 41-41 season, having all of their role players step up during critical times to do their part. One major factor was the emergence of Travis Outlaw off the bench. The team is versatile, talented, and very, very deep. At the point they have Summer League MVP Jerryd Bayless, granted Bayless is more of a pentrator and scorer, it works out pretty well with Brandon Roy distributing the ball. When Roy comes off, we can put serviceable Steve Blake in with Spanish hot shot Rudy Fernadez. Granted they're young and unproven, but I like the frontcourt of Oden and Aldridge a lot more than Bynum and Gasol. The big what if, is whether or not Oden recovers as well as Amare Stoudamire did from his surgery. Rumors have Oden beefing up, being bigger than even Dwight Howard.

7.) Phoenix Suns

Weren't these the guys that have been favored to win it by a decent crew for like the past 3 years? Yes, but I'm again not sold on how well this team does. Sure they have one of the best point guards in the game in Steve Nash, they have one of the best big men in Amare Stoudamire, but, they also are getting old, and their team just doesn't fit any mold to win them anything. Shaquille O'Neal is 36 going on 37 as is Grant Hill. Too much rests on Grant Hill being 100% healthy and Boris Diaw actually trying for Phoenix to really be any sort of contender. Matt Barnes is a good add, something of an upgrade from Gordan Giricek, and they still have Brazilian speed demon Leandro Barbosa, with added defensive size in Robin Lopez, I don't really see them really winning anything. Grant Hill is too fragile to have so much going on him, the problem is, that the Suns need him, he was supposed to be the Marion replacement, but, his body failed him, both him and the Suns. I hope Shaq isn't overconfident again this year, that would really ruin their chances.

8.) Dallas Mavericks

Officially the trade has become Jason Kidd for Devin Harris and a mid-level exception. I don't know that Diop is worth that much, but I guess the Mavs are a little deseperate for some kind of defensive legitimacy in the low post. Honestly though, even with Kidd at the helm I don't see this squad being any better than it was in its loss to Miami and it's two first round playoff exits over the past 3 seasons. Unless Brandon Bass develops into some kind of interior monster Dallas is still just a team of perimeter shooters with Erick Dampier in the middle. I hear Rick Carlisle wants to base the offense more around Jason Kidd, which is good and all, but he's 35, he's good even at 35, but he's 35 nonetheless. Dirk Nowitzki has shown that he's not an interior player and despite the number of rebounds he grabs he's not a presence in the low post, he's content to jack up shots with Jason Terry and Josh Howard. Too many redundant players, too many shooters, not enough people inside to help out Kidd and Dampier. To me they're kind of caught in this uncomfortable limbo, they're too perimeter based to play a halfcourt set, but they're too big to play fast. Unless Nowitzki suddenly gets to be as fast as Kirilenko on the break, I don't see them being much more than first round exits, it's just embarrassing to me because Dirk gets so worked up about it, I get embarrassed for him.

As usual there are those teams that are sort of on the bubble that people will be berating me about not being in there, well you guys are entitled to your opinions too. Those on the bubble for me are the Los Angeles Clippers, the Golden State Warriors, and the Denver Nuggets, in that order. The Clippers look like their better what with Baron Davis at the point, the emergence of Al Thornton as a legitimate offensive threat, the drafting of Eric Gordon, and the frontcourt of Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman. Honestly though, I'm not impressed, first round exit at best. Baron hasn't really shown any compunction to play, and outside of a club run by a coach like Don Nelson, I see him easily becoming a headcase again, he just wanted to go home, have a 5-6 year contract and make a lot of money. Furthermore, I'm not sold on the Kaman-Camby front court. Sure Baron can just chuck it up and one of them will get it, but I see Camby chucking flatfooted 15 footers all day, a shot which if reciprocated, I don't see Camby guarding, at least not with much gusto and effectiveness. All in all it's a squad of misfits that really don't care for the basketball, they'll do well, but I don't see them going far, nothing into the playoffs, especially not in the Western Conference. Golden State will need to adjust now that Monta Ellis is running the point, they'll still be the most fun team to watch, but without Baron Davis they have a lot to change, meaning, they get edged out once again. As for Denver, honestly, it's just a bad basketball atmosphere, no one cares, and no one seems inclined to, except for Marcus Camby, and he's gone.