Monday, September 15, 2008

An In-Depth Look at Big 3s: The Keys to Success: Eastern Conference

Nowadays everyone is talking about Big 3s, that is, the three biggest scoring threats on any team that will inevitably lead them to success. Every team supposedly has one, every successful team definitely has one (with perhaps one exception). My earliest recollection of the term "Big 3" was the 2nd Chicago-Utah series when commentators started comparing the Big 3s of each team (Jordan, Pippen, Kukoc vs Stockton, Malone, Hornacek) Now, in this 2 month lull before the season actually starts lets take a look at what the teams are throwing at their opponents in terms of firepower. Let's start with the East.

Boston Celtics
Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen
This team has sort of revived the idea of a Big 3 (granted the Spurs technically did first, though for some reason, no one really liked talking about the Spurs, don't ask me why, I'm as confused as any) since Shaq and Kobe kind of killed the idea with the Lakers (unless you count one of Glenn Rice, Horace Grant, Ron Harper, AC Green, Rick Fox, or Robert Horry). With the draft night trade for Ray Allen and then the summer blockbuster for Kevin Garnett at the end of the 2006-2007 season, Boston immediately became a contender. There's been all sorts of literature on how well this Big 3 works, and I don't want to beat a dead horse. To put it shortly, it worked, they won a ring. I feel that Kevin Garnett could be more of a post presence for this to work better, but I still like it, you have the prototypical pieces of a good team, the slasher (Paul Pierce), the shooter (Ray Allen), and the low-post threat (Kevin Garnett). There's always been questions about how "go-to" Garnett is on offenses, but he's a proficient enough scorer that you have instant offense on 3 fronts, and that's what a Big 3 has to do. There never is going to be a perfect Big 3 I suppose, or an ideal one, maybe if you replace Ray Allen with Reggie Miller and Kevin Garnett with Patrick Ewing or something then you'd have something ideal, but for all extensive purposes, this team works. One of the primary reasons is simply this, Kevin Garnett (the team leader) plays defense. When your All-Star plays defense, you play defense, so you get a great defensive-minded team that hustles on every play. If any team has a Big 3 it's Boston, the pillars on which the team rests.

Detroit Pistons
Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace
This team was the team I meant as a sort of exception to the rule. This "Big 3" really doesn't exist as a "Big 3" because if you look at it, Tayshaun Prince and Antonio McDyess get their fair share of scoring done as well. It's more of a Big 5 than anything else. However, for all extensive purposes, when the game is on the line, the ball will most likely end up in the hands of one of the three above mentioned players (most likley Chauncey Billups, hence the moniker, "Mr. Big-Shot"). The fact is, they've played together, like, forever. Of the starting 5, Prince, Hamilton, and Billups have been playing together since the 2002-2003 season (so that's what... 6 seasons now?) with Wallace coming alter in 2003-2004 (and succinctly helping Detroit win its title) and McDyess a year later in 2004-2005. Whenever we talk about the Pistons we have to talk about chemistry, because there's tons of it. These guys know each other, they know each other really, really well. For all extensive purposes, they're like an all-American version of the San Antonio Spurs (who, now have a lot of foreign players on the roster). All in all, they have a system that works, and can function outside of my stated "Big 3", however, I feel that when the ball is taken up the court, these three are the centerpieces.

Orlando Magic
Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu
The emergence of Hedo Turkoglu was a pleasant surprise for Orlando last season, the only problem, he emerged as a player somewhat similar to Rashard Lewis. A lot of people say that in retrospect, perhaps the Magic shouldn't have thrown that much money at Lewis, since there was Turkoglu. It was unfortunate that Turkoglu had spent so many seasons hidden behind the once-great, injury-prone Grant Hill, however, I still think Lewis is the better player. The nice thing about Lewis is that he's kind of a 2-in-1 kind of player. He's both a slasher and a shooter (a nice little post up turn-around from the top of the key). So right now, Orlando has Turkoglu slashing and Lewis shooting, and obviously Howard posting. Howard needs to develop a few more moves in the post beyond turning and dunking on anyone that can't body him up, but he's still only 22, so he's got some time. Jameer Nelson just needs to develop Derek Fisher-like reliability and consistency and then I think he'd be a solid addition. All in all, I really like this Big 3, it has a lot of potential, and I only see it getting better.

Philadelphia 76ers
Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller
Some people have put Samuel Dalembert up in the Big 3 instead of Miller, but I personally think it's more Miller than it is Dalembert. To me, now with Brand there, Dalembert becomes a super effective garbage man, akin to Chris Kaman or a more effective Kendrick Perkins. The biggest problem behind the Big 3 of the 76ers remains that there is no one to take over. Miller and Iguodala have proven to be more of hyper-effective role players than any sort of legitimate scoring threat. Brand is more of a workhorse of All-Star quality, but not someone who will take over a game for you. Furthermore, there are no shooters. If you're Mo Cheeks, you don't want Iguodala bombing from beyond the arc, you want him attacking the rim and getting fouled, and Miller never really had an outside shot worth talking about. Both Andres are best at attacking the basket, leaving no one but Willie Green sitting on the perimeter, which means that defenses just keep collapsing on them and clogging the paint, which potentially could be their downfall. Perhaps they'll develop their young talent to step it up, however Thaddeus Young and Louis Williams provide the same problem, they're both slashers. I'm not saying you have to have a shooter to have an effective Big 3, but I think it helps a lot, redundancy really doesn't help because it's just different faces doing the same thing, defenses don't have to adjust too much.

Toronto Raptors
Chris Bosh, Jermaine O'Neal, Anthony Parker
Granted it will be Jose Calderon running the show, but I think Anothony Parker will probably be the bigger scoring threat than Calderon, he's one of those quiet guys that no one talks about in the league, but he gets the job done on most nights. Unfortunately, because Parker is nothing spectacular, Toronto doesn't have much of a Big 3. However, given the way the roster is constructed, Bosh and O'Neal on the block, the team still stands a great chance at doing well. With a roster constructed around Bosh and now with addition of O'Neal, the plethora of long range shooters (Kapono, Parker, Bargnani, Calderon, etc...) doesn't seem too bad. I can see this team gobbling up all sorts of offensive boards and winning a lot of games on put backs and second-chance buckets. Bosh has a little range and versatility which allows O'Neal to focus more on his contributions to the defensive end and the glass. I'm not going to pull the depth and injury card, because it was mentioned that you can do that with every team, so I won't go there. Not really a prototypical Big 3, but hey, I can see it working.

Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron James, Mo Williams, Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Fortunately for me Cleveland made a trade for Mo Williams, otherwise I would've had to put something like LeBron James, LeBron James, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, still, I was tempted to just put, LeBron James, LeBron James, LeBron James, which wouldn't have been too far off the bat. However, as everyone has said, and as history has shown us, you can't win championships on your own. However, outside of LeBron, Big Z has really been the only consistent contributor (positive contributor) in a mish-mash of players collected to play around "The King". In the 2006-2007 season it was supposed to be Larry Hughes (or maybe Drew Gooden), last season it was supposed to be one of Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, or Wally Sczerbiak. Yeah, that didn't work. Mo Williams has shown though, that he can be a scorer and a distributor, someone to play next to LeBron, nice thing is he's got a pretty nice shooting touch too. I think that the Cavs are looking much better this season than they have previously, hopefully the years aren't weighing too heavily on Big Z, and that they can go a little further this time. I'm really interested in seeing how this team pans out. However, since the roster cycles so much, the issue of chemistry becomes something of an issue, sort of, if there weren't so many other problems to look at. I know I criticize Mike Brown a lot for his lack of an offensive playbook, hopefully he'll change my mind this season.

Washington Wizards
Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison
The one good thing that has come out of Gilbert Arenas's previous seasons of knee problems has simply been this: the emergence of Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. That being said, this team hasn't really been healthy for the past 2-3 seasons to really make it far in the playoffs. On paper the team looks pretty good, and I really like this Big 3, they're all pretty versatile, and they all have range, which can really spread the floor. Since I said I won't play the injury card, I will stop talking about injuries. Arenas asserts that they are among the top 5 teams in the NBA, of course they've never really proven themselves to be. I'm not a fan of DeShawn Stevenson but he does alright. I feel like the Big 3 here have to potential to be pretty redundant in that Jamison and Arenas just sit outside trying to out gun the other team, but I think it also has potential to work very well. Butler has emerged as a real offensive threat, and I think this is another team that is high on potential. They're just a little defense shy of being great, but in the interests of measuring Big 3s, I think they're up there as having one of the best.

Miami Heat
Dwayne Wade, Shawn Marion, Michael Beasley
I think everyone keeps forgetting about these guys, but with the re-emergence of Dwayne Wade in the Olympics, I think they are a solid team. If Michael Beasley lives up to half the hype that he's been given, I think he'll be a solid pick, and despite the marijuana issues, I hope that Mario Chalmers pans out as well. I expect the Matrix to play the way he's always played, contributing the way he always does, with Wade, Beasley, and Marion respectively at the 2, 3, and 4 positions I think this is a solid team. Granted I don't want any of them taking a large number of outside shots, that's not to say that they can't make those shots, they are a Big 3 that can get away with it because they share the ball well. We'll see how that goes... Not the most ideal of Big 3s, but as far as Big 3s go, not one I would mind having either.

Chicago Bulls
Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich
I'm really not sold enough on Derrick Rose yet, granted he's a no. 1 pick, meaning that either Hinrich or Gordon are probably going out the door. However, I still believe that for now, if the team remains the same, these guys will still be the Big 3, which, when it comes to Big 3s, I don't believe is saying much. None of the three have really proven themselves to be a real go-to guy in terms of clutch situations and scoring (maybe Gordon?). They all have the same problem that Andre Iguodala has, they'd all be good 2nd options. I'm more inclined to agree with Kenny Smith that they overperformed in the 2006-2007 season than they underperformed in the 2007-2008 season. Granted the 2007-2008 season was horrendous, and they couldn't have done much worse, and I believe they could've played better, but not well enough to have gone all the way. This is another team high on potential, but seriously, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah haven't really done anything to impress me thusfar, they have their spurts, but flashes of greatness aren't really enough to bolster my expectations, I mean, even DeShawn Stevenson has his good games. One of the poorer quality Big 3s out there if ever. I suppose the whole contract and trade issues don't help a whole lot either.

Atlanta Hawks
Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Mike Bibby
I don't know if Mike Bibby will ever regain the form that he was in when he (with Peja Stojakovic and Chris Webber) took the Sacramento Kings to the Western Conference Finals (against the Lakers). However, that being said, he's still a solid player, and I like Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. They're an athletic and versatile team, of course another one of those potential teams. I really like how Al Horford is developing and Marvin Williams is decent (despite being called one of the biggest draft mistakes ever). Of course, how the front office handled the Josh Smith and Josh Childress contracts have the potential to ruin the season, but let's be optimistic and say that it doesn't really affect them (well, except for Childress running off to Greece), I still think that this Big 3 has among the most amount of upside. Josh Smith is still young as is most of the rest of the team, hopefully they can realize their amazing potential, hopefully.

Miluakee Bucks
Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Andrew Bogut
Bucks got rid of Mo Williams with the arrival of Richard Jefferson, who didn't fit really well with the Nets anyways (purportedly something of a Vince Carter clone). On paper it looks pretty good, especially with the development of Andrew Bogut in the middle. Hopefully his fat contract extension doesn't make him lazy. Again you have the prototypical big three, the slasher (Jefferson), the shooter (Redd), and the low-post threat (Bogut). They're not really the cream of the crop when it comes to talent, but I feel like these players, with the exception of maybe Bogut, are somewhat underrated. Redd is probably one of the better shooters in the league, I'd argue one of the best, and Jefferson was among the top scorers in the league, which is a pretty large feat considering while on New Jersey he was always the 3rd scoring option behind Vince Carter and Jason Kidd. Something about me still has some reservations about the team though, maybe because it's Miluakee.

Indiana Pacers
Mike Dunleavy Jr, Danny Granger, TJ Ford
They're trying to eliminate any traces of the Palace Arena brawl Pacers, they shipped Artest to Sacramento, they traded Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson to Golden State (for Troy Murphy? ugh), they shopped Jermaine O'Neal for TJ Ford, and now all that remains is Jamal Tinsley (who is rumored to be on the trading block and supposedly will be traded in some package that includes Rasho Nesterovich). Dunleavy, Granger, and Ford are all players that I would consider good, but nothing spectacular thusfar. I think if I could label them something it'd be "serviceably above-average". I think Granger has the most upside, and Dunleavy has been something of a surprise, now that he plays in a system that he can actually play in. TJ Ford has always been a fighter and definitely plays hard and produces. Not a very awe-inspiring Big 3 on a not so awe-inspiring team.

Charlotte Bobcats
Jason Richardson, Gerald Wallace, Emeka Okafor
You figure for such a high powered Big 3 the team would perform somewhat better. However, Okafor is still sort of stuck between the PF and the C position, and various other things (such as Wallace getting hit on the head too much) have led this team to drift to the bottom. I like the players, Okafor I think needs to find his niche, if he's going to be the hardworking 13 point, 11 rebound, 2 block per low post defensive specialist, then do it. Gerald Wallace needs to attack the basket more, and take less jump shots, but all in all, I like how this team looks. They should be doing a lot better, but of course, I could argue that most teams look better on paper, maybe it's a chemistry issue. Gerald Wallace, realize your potential, and stop hitting your head. Maybe Larry Brown will know enough to not play Gerald Wallace as a PF. I still consider the Okafor-Nazr Mohammed front court to have some promise. Then again, I'm still not sold on Sean May and Adam Morrison though.

New Jersey Nets
Vince Carter, uh.... Yi Jianlian, and errm.... Devin Harris?
Seriously, this team has been gutted for the 2010 free agency sweepstakes. They're hoping that owner Jay-Z can convince LeBron that Brooklyn is a fun place to be, and that the Nets are semi-legitimate once he's there. Seriously, I'm not a fan of Brook Lopez, though he's supposed to be the best thing to come out of Stanford since... Brevin Knight? (Ok, ok, I don't give Josh Childress enough credit, hopefully the Lopez twins are a better than the Collins twins). Sure, he "dominated" Summer League, but seriously, it's Summer League. He potentially could be the next piece, but as far as right now, their Big 3 is somewhat nonexistant, of course, not like they plan on winning for a while, at least not this season.

New York Knicks
Jamal Crawford, Zach Randolph, Eddy Curry
I cringe everytime I have to write the names Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry, I don't know why, or maybe I do, but I just do. Honestly, to me, the Knicks are more like a Big 2, it's Jamal Crawford and either Eddy Curry or Zach Randolph. I was never sold on this frontcourt and last season showed me why. They're like a two-headed monster where one head just consistently steals food from the other. I have never seen a night where both players have performed the way their supposed to, interestingly enough, they're also the top two players on the Yahoo! Eddy Curry line (more turnovers than assists, steals, and blocks combined). Of course Donnie Walsh and Mike D'Antoni are also in the running for the LeBron James sweepstakes, so they're hoping to jettison this season for the sake of the future. Hopefully Danilo Gallinari turns more into the player that Andrea Bargnani was supposed to be as opposed to the player that Andrea Bargnani is.

Western Conference analysis to come later.

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