Boston Celtics
Strengths: Returning champs, starting 5, defense
Weakness: Depth (especially in the frontcourt)
Tradeable Assets: Leon Powe or Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine
If we were to make the NBA a series of 30 minute 5-on-5 pickup games, there would be no doubt that Boston would win, they always have the best 5 on the court whenever they start the game. Granted currently their in something of a slump, teams are adjusting, Rondo isn't shooting well, Pierce has been struggling, but nonetheless, as a starting unit, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins are the most solid squad any team can floor. Perkins and Rondo have made huge strides and the Big 3 (Allen, Pierce, and Garnett) haven't really dropped off all that much. That being said, once you hit the 6th man on the roster, the dropoff is pretty sharp. They are severely missing the hustle and length of PJ Brown and the tenacity and shots of James Posey. The reserves on the squad consist of; Eddie House, Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Leon Powe, and then maybe Brian Scalibrine and Gabe Pruitt. It's not really an impressive bench, what they need is length. Perhaps Doc will give Patrick O'Bryant another run, but it's telling how bad a player is when he's the tallest guy on the team and doesn't see any playing time.
There are two things that hurt the reserves whenever they come out on the floor; they have no scoring options and they're short.
Let's address the first issue:
Their bench can't score. Their leading scorer off the bench is Tony Allen, who is averaging a measely 7.9 points per game and then Eddie House who averages 7.5, the next being Leon Powe at 6.7 per game. That means that on average the top three reserves average only 22.1 points per game. For comparison's sake, let's look at the next East contender, who we'll say for all extensive purposes is Cleveland. Now, let's say for the sake of simplicity the starters' scoring cancels each other out (Boston's starters score 72.9 pts/game, Cleveland's 72.4), so in terms of scoring production Rondo+Allen+Pierce+Garnett+Perkins = Mo Williams+Delonte West+LeBron James+Ben Wallace+Zydrunas Ilgauskas. However, if we take the second unit as a whole, we see that Boston's bench is in actuality rather weak. Let's say the reserve squad would be Eddie House, Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine, Leon Powe, and Glen Davis. That ends up being 28.2 points per game. In comparison, if we look at Cleveland's 2nd squad of: Daniel Gibson, Sasha Pavlovich, Wally Sczerbiak, JJ Hickson, and Anderson Varejao; you have a reserve unit scoring average of 32.7 points per game, which more than covers the difference. Granted there are matchup issues and all that, but there just isn't really a goto scorer kind of person, which is why they're contemplating bring Sam Cassell back out of semi-retirement, since he at least can create his own shot. As many have been speculating, this is also where the Stephon Marbury talks come in, while he's a headcase, Marbury would solve the scoring problem, should he be put into his place in the roster, that is a reserve PG for scoring. Tony Allen was thought to be the James Posey replacement, and has been doing decently, however, watching Allen play is remarkably frustrating as he tries time after time to attack the rim and hoist highly difficult, low-percentage shots.
The second issue is height. As I said before, it's telling when your team's tallest player is at the end of the bench and hasn't really seen the floor since preseason. Which means, that the tallest player coming off the bench is the 6-9 Glen Davis. Even if you measure against reserves, you'd be matching Davis against a 6-11 Anderson Varejao (Cleveland), a 7-0 Marcin Gortat (Orlando), a 6-10 Maresse Speights or Theo Ratliff (76ers), a 7-0 Rasho Nesterovic, 6-11 Jeff Foster, or 7-2 Roy Hibbert (Indiana), etc... The best matchup would be against like a soft Andrea Bargnani (Toronto), who might still burn them with his outside game, or the smaller energy man Jason Maxiell (Detroit). They just get outmatched in the paint with the second unit in length. To me, Davis and Powe are both just high energy bigs, I mean, the ideal would be they turn into the hyper-efficient Paul Millsap, but honestly, they're just not there, and two of them doesn't really help the team.
Trading one of the two (Powe or Davis) seems to be the solution, otherwise finding a solution outside of trades. Scalabrine, Pruitt, and O'Bryant are also somewhat expendable, but I don't think anyone really wants them. There have been rumors of signing Dikembe Mutumbo, and should he have any game left, he'd be a brilliant addition, solving the problems of length and interior defense on the second unit. Recently, Boston recalled their rookies Bill Walker and JR Giddens from their D-League team in Utah, which they hope to solve their problems, Walker was averaging 18.7 points per game in his 15 games with the D-League while Giddens averaged 17.3 with his 13. Here's to hoping they make a difference, because there really isn't much they can do with their salary cap.
Toronto Raptors
Strengths: Frontcourt
Weaknesses: Wing play, depth, defense
Tradeable assets: Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Parker, Joey Graham
Where to begin with these Raptors? Firstly, people have said that in general it's hard for the Raptors to ever get good, because no one wants to go play in Canada. Makes sense. This team, has a lot of jump shooters, and because of that, their wing play is extraordinarily weak. Jose Calderon is struggling to adjust to being a full-time starter, Jermaine O'Neal is struggling to fit in and not take flat-footed 15-foot wing jumpers, and Chris Bosh is struggling to find a reason to stay once he hits the 2010 free agency pool. Firstly, they're pretty soft on defense, I think having O'Neal, healthy on the floor will help that problem. Depth is a second issue, primarily at the PG slot, though Calderon's recent injury have given Will Solomon and Roko Ukic to really step it up, and they've been doing a decent job.
This brings me to the biggest weakness that Toronto has, its wing play sucks. Granted they are one of the best shooting teams on the court, but no one outside of Chris Bosh can really create a shot for himself. The wings consist usually of Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Jason Kapono, Joey Graham, and sometimes Andrea Bargnani, the most consistent of these would be Anthony Parker, and he's consistently average to below-average. Sub-par wing play has forced this team to rely too much on Chris Bosh's dominance, and honestly, might be why Jermaine O'Neal thinks he has to do more on offense, because honestly, you can't rely on Parker, Moon, or Kapono to average 17pts a night.
Parker and Graham are both rather packageable as expiring contracts which would then lead us to consider what kind of player they might get in return. Parker makes $4.5 million and Graham $2.4 million, not to say that they could swing for a $7 milion swingman in a 2-for-1 but it's an option. The only thing I see that might make sense for both teams would perhaps be a trade for Golden State Warrior's Stephen Jackson. Of course, that's provided that Toronto is willing to be lumped with him for the next 5 years. He does add a lot on the wing and is a decent defender, a pretty good scorer, and I think an improved second option over Anthony Parker behind Chris Bosh. Kind of unfeasible. Another one that is a maybe, but also potentially unfeasible, would be to see if they could convince Portland to give up Travis Outlaw for Anthony Parker. Outlaw is the kind of slasher that scores in bunches and is athletic and the kind of guy that Toronto could really use. On the other hand, Parker, is an expiring contract, giving Portland an extra $4.5 million next year in cap space, but additionally, for this season at least, provides a little more legitimacy to the squad's long-range game, as Martell Webster is yet to return. Of course, I'd imagine that Kevin Pritchard wants to get something of value in return instead of an expiring contract.
Philadelphia 76ers
Strengths: Attacking the basket
Weakness: 3pt shooting
Tradeable assets: Samuel Dalembert
Honestly I don't really know what to make of this team. Everybody, I mean everybody has underperformed. I don't know if it's their perimeter play, but that's definitely one of their weaknesses. The only players that I would think you can call "3pt specialists" on the squad are Willie Green and Donyell Marshall. Obviously 3pt shooting isn't high on their list otherwise they wouldn't have traded away Kyle Korver for Gordon Girecek whom they no longer have on their roster. Ultimately, I think this team has a lot of the pieces, but everybody has to figure out their role, starting with Elton Brand and Andre Iguodala. From there, Andre Miller and Samuel Dalembert will know what to do, Thaddeus Young will have a clearer understanding of his role, etc, etc...
A lot of people say that Elton Brand will prove doubters wrong and regain his All-Star form, but you're going to have to count me among the doubters. It just seems like Brand's style of play doesn't match those suited to the other key players in the rotation, namely Thaddeus Young and Andre Iguodala, of course, the results of overall decreased production (at least for Brand and Iggy) could be completely unrelated. Samuel Dalembert has just looked lost, and the strong play of Marresse Speights probably hasn't helped his cause a whole lot either. I think he needs a change of scenery.
If they could foist Dalembert to a team that needs a strong big that clogs the paint, cleans up on the offensive glass, and blocks shots, for a strong shooter, then I think the GM has done his job. There are rumors of Maggette for Dalembert, but I really don't see that as an improvement, Maggette is too close of a player to Iggy, and we've determined that Iggy doesn't know what to do at the SG slot, I don't know that Maggette would fare that much better, Crawford would be the better fit, however, I don't know that either is the answer. Trading away Dalembert does leave a large gap in the middle for the 76ers, I don't know that a straight swap of centers, such as Dalembert for Brad Miller would be the answer, though arguably both would benefit more from the change, and Miller can play off of Brand better. While I doubt that the T'Wolves are shopping him, especially with Corey Brewer out for the season, Mike Miller has been tremendously disappointing in Minnesota. Some kind of package of Mike Miller and Mark Madsen for Dalembert would help solve some of Philadelphia's perimeter offense problems and Minnesota's lack of strong interior defense (sorry, but Big Al is just not a center). However, the problem of coexistence between Al Jefferson and Samuel Dalembert might raise a few question marks as well. An interesting mix might be Dalembert for Larry Hughes, while Hughes isn't the most coveted player in the league, I think he'll solve some of the scoring from the perimeter woes that the 76ers have, and allow Andre Miller to do what he's best at, facilitating the offense and finding the open man. Of course this might be difficult if Tony DiLeo doesn't think Marresse Speights is ready to start and Theo Ratliff doesn't have enough juice left in him to be a full time reserve, especially with Jason Smith out for the season, maybe they can try to convince Chicago to throw in Aaron Gray. Regardless, this also solves Chicago's need for some kind of interior presence. Dalembert, while not really an All-Star, has shown in the past that he can be effective in the middle, epsecially on the defensive end. Getting rid of Hughes also solves the platoon of guards and opens up playing time for Thabo Sefalosha, which Chicago has been trying to do for a while.
New York Knicks
Strengths: Athletic forwards, strong perimeter play
Weakness: Defense, height
Tradeable assets: David Lee, Eddy Curry, Jerome James, Malik Rose, Stephon Marbury, Jared Jeffries
Firstly, I understand that the New York Knicks are currently in the business of only collecting contracts that are 2 years or shorter in hopes for the LeBron James sweepstakes in the 2010 free agency. While, LeBron may decide to stay with the much improved Cleveland Cavaliers, they also probably wouldn't mind landing the likes of Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, or Amare Stoudemire. Given their current cap situation they will only have $6 million of Jared Jeffries on the roster by 2010, that plus any potential big free agents they sign next year, which I don't think will be any. The ideal situation would be Nash signing for cheap, as he would then be able to play for D'Antoni and be in New York where he is part owner of a soccer club, sign LeBron for max contract and perhaps Chris Bosh for a max contract, and then build around that. Not sure if they have any priority in retaining players, perhaps Danilo Gallinari to show he wasn't a wasted pick, and Wilson Chandler, who has really stepped it up, and perhaps Chris Duhon as a backup, as he has played well as well. As they haven't yet extended David Lee and Nate Robinson, who become free agents end of this season, it's possible that Donnie Walsh might just let them walk.
That being said, the biggest issue with the current D'Antoni offense is that David Lee is a short center, the guy stands at 6-9 at 240 lbs, to give you a relative comparison, let's look at a typical center (not Dwight Howard, who is a monster, 6-11, 265 by the by), say Andrew Bogut, he's 7-0, 260. I mean, there are shorter centers, like Emeka Okafor or Kendrick Perkins at 6-10, and there certainly are skinnier centers, like Andris Biedrins, who weighs only 245, but the general trend is, that David Lee is a short center, I mean, he's already not that humungous for a PF already, kind of typical (same height and weight as David West). Eddy Curry is an end of the bench ornament at this point in time, and honestly, Donnie Walsh would be just as happy to move him, which means that the tallest players to crack the rotation both as starters and reserves are; David Lee (6-9), Al Harrington (6-9), Tim Thomas (6-10), and Jared Jeffries (6-11). I know, you're thinking, "Jeffries is 6-11, that's not that short, and look at Jerome James, he's 7-1, there's no height problem in New York, and Tim Thomas is the same height as Emeka Okafor." Yeah, but this is Jerome James, Jared Jeffries, and Tim Thomas we're talking about. First, I wouldn't really trust Tim Thomas to play SF let alone the PF position, secondly, I would trust Jared Jeffries to play, thirdly, Jerome James has only played 2 games, total this season, it's telling when the team is trying to force you to retire before the season even starts.
That being said, basically anyone on the roster is tradeable, except maybe Chris Duhon, but I think Donnie Walsh could be convinced to part with him if he thought the price was right. The only requisite for trading with the Knicks is that the contract has to expire in 2010. Now Jeffries and Curry both have player options that extend to 2011, which is why it's something of a priority to move them, however, that makes their contracts that much uglier than even Kenny Thomas's, whose contract at least expires by the 2010 free agency. While D'Antoni may not like Harrington, he's been the most effective offensive option on the Knicks thusfar, averaging 21.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 2.6 threes on 42.3% shooting since being traded. Lee is much coveted across the league, apparently by Portland GM Kevin Pritchard, trade rumors have murmurings of returning Channing Frye to New York with someone like Sergio Rodruigez or something, perhaps also involving a third team, however, this only works if Pritchard can convince Lee that he won't get a better offer as a starter elsewhere, and is satisfied being a perpetual sub behind LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden. There were also rumors of Curry for Diaw, which Charlotte would do for an inside scoring presence, which New York would do simply because Diaw makes less per year. I don't know that D'Antoni is all that worried about the height issue, but if he can get an athletic big that can run with the team, it wouldn't really be all that bad either, that's the key though, finding someone that can run with the team. Marcus Camby was mentioned as an option, which would free up time when for Kaman when he returned, as the Clippers seem to like Randolph. I personally feel that perhaps some trade for Shawn Marion, (if Eddy Curry can get in game shape again, so like Eddy Curry and Quentin Richardson), would benefit both teams. While Marion doesn't add a whole lot of height, he does add some defensive tenacity.
New Jersey Nets
Strengths: PG
Weaknesses: Forward slots
Tradeable assets: Everyone except Devin Harris
Well, maybe not Brook Lopez either, and if Yi is bringing enough money. I haven't really given up on Yi yet, but things aren't looking too promising for him, at least as a basketball player, I'm seriously hoping he proves me wrong. If not, the Nets did draft the next all-American version of Yi in Ryan Anderson. Needless to say, the Nets, like their New York counterparts, are waiting patiently for the 2010 free agency. The only players that are signed for contracts longer than two years currently are; Devin Harris, Vince Carter, and Eduardo Najera. The step that the Nets have over New York currently, is that they at least have Harris and Carter to rebuild around, a young burgeoning point guard and an old saavy vet, say what you will about Carter, he's still got game. I don't know that the Nets disklike Najera, so they'll likely keep him, there's no reason for them to upgrade over Jarvis Hayes or Bobby Simmons as they're just waiting for LeBron to fill in the PF slot, so they'll just coast with Harris and Carter and hope that Yi and Lopez develop.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment