What's Up With the Clippers?

Sure we can say injuries, sure we can say whatever, new team, new roster, bad chemistry, but seriously, should this team be doing better or did the Clippers' front office overreact in blowing up the team?  It's hard to say, but here's my take: any team in California not called the Lakers has problems.

Let's look at the roster from last season:

PG- Brevin Knight, Dan Dickau

SG- Cuttino Mobley, Quentin Ross

SF- Corey Maggette, Al Thornton

PF- Elton Brand, Tim Thomas

C- Chris Kaman, Josh Powell

This was likely the ideal first squad/second squad setup that I would've had if I were Mike Dunleavy Sr.  Now granted, Sam Cassell played half of the season before asking to be bought out, however, Dunleavy was at a point where he thought Cassell had no gas left and was platooning his time with Brevin Knight, they were basically one person, honestly, and Cassell didn't really figure into being an impact player, except that both Maggette and Brand were out with injuries.  Now if we assume that this is what we get with a fully healthy 2007-2008 Clippers roster.

Let's look at today's roster:

PG- Baron Davis, Jason Hart

SG- Eric Gordon, Mardy Collins

SF- Al Thornton, Ricky Davis

PF- Zach Randolph, Brian Skinner

C- Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman

Now, we still have the same injury problem as Baron Davis, Randolph, Ricky Davis, and Chris Kaman are all out with injuries.  However, if we look at this roster versus the previous, is there really a difference?  First, let's look at a head to head with the starters:

Baron Davis vs Brevin Knight

This is something of a no brainer, of course, Baron Davis, former All-Star is going to win out.  Knight was, and still is, nothing more than a solid reserve that gets a decent assist to turnover ratio in limited minutes.  However, what is the most alarming is the drop off in across the board for Davis's stats.  Let's say last year was a fluke because Baron ended up somehow playing through all 82 games in the season without injury something he hadn't done since the 2001-2002 season, when the Hornets were still in Charlotte.  So, the year before, Davis was averaging: 20.1 pts, 4.4 rbds, 8.1 assts, 2.1 stls, and 0.5 blks on 3.1 TOs.  He was shooting 43.9% from the field including 30.4% from downtown and 74.5% from the line.  This year, so far, Davis is averaging: 17.3 pts, 3.4 rbds, 8.0 assts, 1.8 stls, 2.6 TOs, and 0.5 blks on 36% FG, 29.1% from downtown, and 78.8% from the line.  All of his numbers except FT% is down, a fairly significant amount too.  Granted Baron's been already battling injuries in these first 30-something games of the season, but still, he's not playing the way we expect him to be playing.

Eric Gordon vs Cuttino Mobley

It's not exactly fair to take Eric Gordon's numbers at face value, since he was playing for a while with Mobley still on the roster.  Across the season he's averaging 12.3 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1 steal, 1/2 a block, and a trey on 43.5% shooting and 34.9% from downtown.  He's only averaging 3.7 FT attempts per game, so take his 85% FT shooting with a grain of salt.  However, if we take the 24 starts he's had, you get; 16.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.4 apg, and 1.2 spg, shooting a respectable 45.2%.  Mobley on the other hand, averaged 12.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.4 spg, and 1.1 treys on 43.3% shooting.  As Gordon is putting up these numbers as a rookie, you suspect there is a lot of upside to be had.

Al Thornton vs Corey Maggette

Al Thornton was stellar as a rookie last year, however, it's fair to note, that for his rookie class, he's actually rather old, being already 24 (think like, Travis Outlaw), for a point of reference I don't think either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant can even drink yet.  Thornton has proven he can score, but doesn't really contribute much else.  He's averaging; 16.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.3 apg on 43.8% shooting.  Maggette on the other hand averaged 22.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1 spg, on 45.8% shooting.  Another item worth noting is that Maggette got to the line almost 10 times per game, almost double the amount of times that Thornton does.  Furthermore, Maggette also averaged almost 2 minutes less floor time per game than Thornton currently does (Maggette got about 36 minutes per game and Thornton, 38).  Scoring aside, their stats are pretty much comparable, with maybe an extra assist here or there for Maggette, making them a pretty comparable player, a black hole for scoring.  However, Maggette was just much more efficient and much better at it (5 pts per game in 2 fewer minutes).

Zach Randolph vs Elton Brand

Of course we all remember that Elton Brand was hobbled by a ruptured achilles tendon last year, so he didn't play much, thus for all extensive purposes we'll look at his stats from the season prior.  Also, I understand that Brand's leaving was by no means the fault of the Clippers' front office, but with that aside, let's run the comparison.  Zach Randolph has had something of a revival after starting the season playing under Mike D'Antoni.  Ever since being traded to the Clippers (for Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas) he's been averaging 23.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game on 48.9% shooting, that was, of course, until he bruised his knee.  Elton Brand on the other hand, averaged 20.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1 steal, and 2.2 blocks on 53.3% shooting when he played the whole season in 2006-2007.  Basically, it's a wash, except Brand plays defense, for all extensive purposes Brand averages 1.9 more blocks per game than Randolph, Randolph on the other hand shoots 2.1 threes per game, making 0.6 of them (36.7%), Brand shot none.  It's a matter of a tradeoff, but for all extensive purposes Brand was shooting more efficiently and played defense.

Marcus Camby vs Chris Kaman

Arguably, you can say this is the best part of the team, since the Clippers still have Kaman.  However, that brings up entirely other issues.  Camby, currently is averaging 12.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal, and 2.6 blocks on 50% shooting.  These are pretty average stats for Camby, who seems to thrive better at the C position.  Kaman, on the other hand, averaged 15.7 points, 12.7 rebounds, 1.9 assist, and 2.8 blocks on a team without Elton Brand.  This season, he's averaging 13.9 points, 9.4 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.9 blocks, playing next to Marcus Camby, we can't compare his stats from two years ago as last season was arguably his breakout season, and since he was injured before the trade for Randolph we can't really say a whole lot about that either.  Kaman has shown that he's got a decent scoring touch and is a solid rebounder and plays hard defense.  Camby still has some legs left, so while he's not playing significantly better than his DPOY form, he's not playing significanlty worse either.  So in terms of production, it's a wash.

If we look at the bench, from last year we would have had; Dan Dickau, Quintin Ross, Tim Thomas, Al Thornton, and Josh Powell.  Of course, Thornton and Thomas slid in and out of the starting lineup at will because of Brand's injury, so their numbers are likely somewhat inflated for reserves.  This year, we're looking at reserves of; Jason Hart, Mardy Collins, Ricky Davis, Brian Skinner, Chris Kaman; of course Paul Davis, Mike Taylor, and others are making an impact, but lets say these are the primary reserves.  Kaman coming off the bench would be a big plus to this year's squad, however, I'd say that's a wash with Thomas and Thronton, Ricky Davis has always been somewhat streaky, but when he shoots well he's very lethal, so we'll have him give the edge to the rest of the bench.

So if we were to pan it out:

PG: 2007-2008<2008-2009

SG: 2007-2008<2008-2009

SF: 2007-2008>2008-2009

PF: 2007-2008=2008-2009

C: 2007-2008=2008-2009

Bench: 2007-2008<2008-2009

So it seems like the 2008-2009 squad should win 3-1-2 right?  Well, the problem I think lies within the roster deficiencies.  Arguably the amount of chemistry within the team is different.  Yes, the current Clippers comprise of completely new players save maybe Chris Kaman, Al Thornton, and Paul Davis, however, I think the problem goes beyond that.

Issue #1: Baron Davis and Mike Dunleavy Sr.

Mike Dunleavy is renown as a coach who likes to micromanage, Baron Davis is renown as a PG who clashes with these kinds of coaches (see Byron Scott).  Baron is the kind of player that needs freedom to play his best game, of course, that often entails volume shooting, which attributes to his 30% shooting percentage, something that would likely drive Coach Dunleavy crazy.  While there hasn't been any media news regarding dissatisfaction on either side, I can't imagine they have the peachiest relationship as a coach and player.  Furthermore, I have to question Baron Davis's desire to win.  His reasoning for leaving for LA has always seemed to be wanting to be in LA and a long-term contract, which is fine, but it doesn't make sense, at least if he wants to win a championship.  Yes, there was the whole Elton Brand issue, but given Baron's on and off court antics, it's really just hard to say.

Issue #2: Zach Randolph and Al Thornton

I'm sure playing on the court with one offensive black hole is hard enough, add a second to the floor?  Ouch.  I don't know that they can rely entirely on Marcus Camby's offensive rebounding when Randolph and Thorton are inclined to just chuck from wherever they catch the ball.  Limited ball movement means fewer options on offense, which means an offense that is easier to read, which means stagnant offense, which means more losses. 

Issue #3: Zach Randolph and Chris Kaman

Z-Bo has to be the only 20-10 guy that doesn't help his team win games, it's been said before by others, so I'm saying it again now.  To me, Chris Kaman's game is similar to Eddy Curry's, the primary difference being that Chris Kaman hustles and plays defense.  However, they're both big bodies in the paint, solid rebounders, post scorers, and don't really pass all that well.  I can't help but think that when Kaman gets back, should he share floor time with Randolph they'll become the 2007-2008 Knicks frontcourt with some shot-blocking.

Based on these three major issues, without even getting into problems like Ricky Davis, I think the team has actually taken a step back, maybe a small one, maybe more laterally then backwards, but definitely anything but a step forward.  I was confused by the Marcus Camby trade, I was even more confused by the Zach Randolph trade, all I have to say, is that this team is just confusing as heck.