Friday, February 20, 2009

A-Ok with standing pat, well, for the most part

I'm sure you've read almost ad nauseam the amount of stuff out on the internet about what trades do and do not do for various teams that did make trades.  Prior to this season's trade deadline, the major teams involved were Miami, New York, Chicago, Toronto, and Sacramento, with some incidental trades on the side with Oklahoma City, Boston, Portland, and Minnesota.  Players names ranged from Brad Miller, Jermaine O'Neal, and Shawn Marion, to Calvin Booth, Mike Ruffin, and Will Solomon.  However, some teams made a bigger impact by not making a move at all.  How does that work?  Well, among the several teams rumored to be making trades, or rather that were supposed to make trades, most didn't, and many big names (including Richard Jefferson, Vince Carter, Marcus Camby, etc...) who were thought to be calling moving trucks won't have to.  So as not to re-hash all the "who wins" in a trade thing (which I might do later) I'm going to right now talk about teams that didn't do anything and how that helps or hurts them.

Teams That Were Right to Stand Pat

I was trying to think of something witty to call this section but alas, I don't have anything.  Anyways, these are teams who people thought would make a move, but are actually ok not doing anything, given the situation.  

San Antonio Spurs

A lot of speculation had been going out about how the Spurs were going to make a push for one of either another big man or wing scorer (namely Vince Carter).  Honestly though, if you look at the roster, the Spurs don't really have much to offer.  In terms of expiring contracts, they have 3; Michael Finley, Ime Udoka, and Jacque Vaughn, whose salaries add up to total a whopping $4.8 million (maybe throw in a $2 million Robert Horry sign and trade with the remaining MLE or something).  Other tradeable assets then would have included veterans Bruce Bowen ($4 million) and Fabricio Oberto ($3.6 million) who expire in 2010, and would obviously be taken for cost-cutting reasons more so than any sort of talent left in them.  Ultimately, when it came down to it, in order to make any splash, the Spurs would have to likely include free agent acquisition Roger Mason Jr and/or draft pick George Hill, both of whom have stepped up this season.  Spurs have never really been a team to mortgage the future to win now, so the prospect of dropping either Mason and/or Hill for one, "now"-impact type player just isn't their style.

The names on the market that popped up with the Spurs included Marcus Camby, Vince Carter, and to a lesser extent Rasheed Wallace.  Obviously, the only reason any team would trade with the Spurs would be for cost cutting reasons, as there obviously isn't a whole lot of talent to give up.  Rumors on the Carter trade included a package of Hill, Bowen, Oberto, and Mason, and likely this would have been the package offered to any other team as well.  Honestly, were I the Spurs GM the only players I'd be willing to part with would be Finely, Vaughn, Udoka, Oberto, and Bowen, and I don't think any team is THAT desperate for cap space, given that plenty of other teams have better cap space saving tradeable assets to deal.  The reason I'm tenative on trading the core of the reserves is that you're not getting a lot in return.  Spurs are already pretty thin, and then jettisoning depth (i.e. Hill, Mason, and/or to some extent Kurt Thomas and Matt Bonner) for one kind of marquee player just doesn't seem like a smart move to go into the playoffs.  You could argue that Boston did that, trading away 7 players for Kevin Garnett and then a couple players and a first round pick (ended up being Jeff Green) for Ray Allen, but remember, Boston had a number of pretty significant free agent pickups (James Posey, Sam Cassell, and PJ Brown) in addition to the young developing talent of Rajon Rondo.  While it would be nice to build around a core of Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and say Vince Carter this season, the role players/reserve squad of Matt Bonner, Kurt Thomas, Michael Finley, Ime Udoka, and Jacque Vaughn makes things difficult, especially as Duncan, Ginobili, and Carter are all on the wrong side of 30.  Ultimately, when push came to shove, the Spurs GM made the right move to hang onto George Hill and Roger Mason.

In terms of this season, the best bet for San Antonio to improve is to make a midseason free agent signing.  Rumors have Rasho Nesterovic being bought out by the Pacers and the Spurs going after him, a solid big who can score and defend.  Another plus side is that Rasho has been there before, he's played with the Spurs before (a part of the 2005 championship team) so is familiar with Popovich's system and has played with the Big 3 of Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan.  However, should someone like Rasheed Wallace (who becomes a free agent after this season) not retire, and maybe sign with the Spurs next season, that'd be cool too.  While getting a player like that would be huge for the Spurs, it wouldn't be worthwhile at the expense of its already tenuous depth.

Portland Trailblazers

A lot of people (like ESPN) will disagree with me that the Blazers did ok "standing pat".  I say that with quotes because technically they did trade Ike Diogu for Michael Ruffin, but that just saves them some money and honestly doesn't amount to anything, and therefore the Blazers "didn't do anything".  When people ask why Portland didn't do anything, they're probably specifically referring to, anything with Raef LaFrentz's expiring contract (which Blazers fans have aptly called RLEC).  Additionally, with all that young, tradeable depth (see Channing Frye, Sergio Rodruiguez, and Travis Outlaw), you'd think they would be able to make a move.  Like most people I don't think that the Blazers should make a move just for the sake of making a move, the obvious needs of Portland are in two positions, PG and SF.  They need a more able floor leader that can bring the ball up (an improvement over Steve Blake) or they need a defensive stop that can shoot from the wings and/or create his own shot (an improvement over Travis Outlaw).  

Honestly, I think Kevin Pritchard was smart in not pulling the trigger on any major trades the Blazers might live to regret in the future.  One such trade was the Richard Jefferson and Luke Ridnour for RLEC and Travis Outlaw.  The first reason why this trade is a no-go for me, is that Richard Jefferson is not a significant improvement over Travis Outlaw.  Don't believe me?  See for yourself.  If you're a John Hollinger nut, you'll notice that Outlaw has a PER of 14.5 whereas Jefferson's is 14.9, meaning, they're pretty much the same.  To get that kind of production is not worth the extra $9.2 million this year and next and the extra $13 million going into 2011.  Secondly, Luke Ridnour is not an improvement over Steve Blake, and his presence would seriously stunt the development of rookie Jerryd Bayless.  Bayless is another x-factor, as he's shown that he can definitely play at the NBA level, meaning that anyone that Portland gets ought to be a Steve Blake replacement, and be able to help develop Bayless, and Bayless therefore is not tradeable.  Understandable, as Philly sought Bayless in addition to RLEC for Andre Miller reportedly, and while Miller would help a lot, he's not at the elite PG level for which I'd give up the future in Bayless.  Two other names that were thrown about were Gerald Wallace and Caron Butler.  Wizards seem to still be convinced that they can win with a core built around Butler, Gilbert Arenas, and Antawn Jamison, so aren't willing to part with Butler.  As for Gerald Wallace, while he would be an improvement, he does have a long contract, and I think it's worth being cautious about his health, since he's been sustaining football-like injuries in seasons past (4 concussions and a collapsed lung in 5 seasons), tack that onto a long (4 year) and fairly expensive ($9.5 million) contract, makes me leery.  I think it's safer to wait and see, with the flexibility that RLEC gives the Blazers, and not make any rash moves.  See how things go when Martell Webster returns and then determine how to move forward from there.    Another name thrown in the mix was Vince Carter, but his age (32) and the length and size of his contract are huge red flags on any trade for him.

Blazers likely won't make any major moves until the offseason, this season being mostly a season to prove that this young core is the real deal.  The cornerstones of the franchise are obviously Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden, and while adding a big name at the 3 or the 1 would help, it's not a major perogative of Kevin Pritchard.  I think the Blazers are looking more for a guy that will fit well and perhaps mentor the young team, more than just straight talent.  Ideally, the type of player that Blazers would want are high and demand and unavailable, those being the likes of Tayshaun Prince and/or Shane Battier.  Perhaps they make a splash in free agency this off season, or move some of their other young pieces, they have the time and flexibilty to do it, though not as much as anticipated with the whole Darius Miles saga.

No comments: