Monday, February 16, 2009

Things to Talk About...

I really don't want to recap the All-Star Game, it was sadly disappointing, not just the game, and the blowout the West had over the East, but the whole weekend in general.  I didn't get to see H-O-R-S-E, the NBDL Slam Dunk Contest, the Rookie-Sophomore Challenge, or the NBDL All-Star Game, so I might've missed out on some stuff, but what I did see was rather uninspiring.  Part of it might be that I just got everything wrong.

Here's my quick recap before I move on:

- Derrick Rose was not trying and he still torched everyone in the Skills Challenge

- Tony Parker managed to get a worse time than his all-time worse time for the Skills Challenge, he also was the only player to have gone through the thing before

- Rashard Lewis only got 7 points on the final tie-breaker of the 3pt Shootout

- The top shooters in the 3pt Shootout advanced to the final round on scores of 15 and 16, as a point of reference Dirk was eliminated with a score of like 19 last season

- Daequan Cook had won the Shootout by the 2nd cart of his final round

- Nate Robinson did all of the exact same dunks he did before and said that was his plan when he won


- Kenny Smith doesn't like Spanish people

- Sonny Weems got shown on international television, he's not a very good passer



- This was the only redeeming part of the game

Ok, I'm done.  More importantly, I think looming on the horizon is the impending trade deadline (Feb 19, this Thursday).  Within the next week we can probably expect to see a flurry of moves and it'll be interesting to see who goes where.  There are definitely several teams mentioned in making a move, so here's who I've been hearing about, and the what if's and how's and stuff like that if the trade does happen.

Teams Shipping:

Phoenix Suns 28-23 9th in the West

Talk of the Phoenix Suns making of move has flooded the internet via blogs, news, and podcasts ad nauseam.  Really, it has.  All this speculation, and if you watched Inside the NBA, you heard David Aldridge say that most of the trade would be for entirely financial reasons.  Additionally, you'll read all over that Suns owner Rob Sarver is the one pushing for it, and therefore it makes no basketball sense.  I'm in agreement with Chris Webber (via Inside the NBA) when he says that if Amar'e Stoudemire is traded, then the Suns are done, and not just for this year, but for a long time coming.  I like one thing Webber says, "If you trade Amar'e the team automatically gets older."  If you look at the core, Shaq turns 37 next month, Grant Hill by the end of the season, and Nash just recently celebrated his big 35.  Also note that Jason Richardson (28) and Leandro Barbosa (26) are not getting any younger too.  Granted, you still have a couple years you could rebuild around Barbosa and Richardson, but they're not really the centerpieces you build franchises around.  Furthermore, there isn't much youth to develop, I mean, no one has looked super promising out of Goran Dragic, Alando Tucker, or Robin Lopez, no one out of those have even looked semi-promising.  Jared Dudley and Matt Barnes are serviceable at best, but don't look for them to become All-Stars, ever.  It doesn't even matter if they're bad since all their picks have already been given away (the 2010 picks to Sam Presti of the OKC Thunder).

Reports also have anyone except for Steve Nash on the block.  I wouldn't be surprised if Steve Nash was also on the block too though.  Most rumors seem to imply that the closest team to a deal would be Chicago, which would revolve around a package of Tyrus Thomas, Drew Gooden (mainly for his expring contract), and a pick.  A lot of places say that the likely package would end up including Thabo Sefalosha and/or Joakim Noah, it'd have to include one or the other for the money to work, but not necessarily both.  If I were Kerr, personally, I'd ask for nothing less than both, otherwise, I'd take Noah over Sefalosha, you can always get away finding a plug-and-play shooter off-guard somewhere.  The problem is, Chicago probably wouldn't do that as that would glut their front-court of all bodies except Aaron Gray.  Now, let's assume the trade does go through, 4-for-1, Suns get Sefalosha, Gooden, Thomas, and Noah.  What does this do?  First, Gooden is a good fit temporarily next to Shaq as they develop Thomas, and no matter what you say, while both being downgrades from Amar'e, they're both upgrades from Louis Amundson.  Noah is a good fit behind Shaq in front of Robin Lopez, and Sefalosha fits in at the 2 behind Richardson with Barbosa going back to being a backup point guard.  The Bulls would be forced to start a frontcourt of Amar'e and Aaron Gray while having Nocioni back up the PF and possibly C spots, Michael Ruffin will finally get playing time and the Bulls might call up Rod Benson or something.  John Hollinger added a wins added per trade for each team in the new ESPN Trade Machine, Chicago is projected with a -9 wins in this trade while Phoenix gets +2.  Other locations rumored, would include Golden State, Sacramento, and Memphis.  However, it doesn't seem like anything Suns ask for is reasonable, or would reasonably get fair value in return.

With the firing of Terry Porter, there's no certainty that Suns will try to stay with a slow-it-down-pass-Shaq-the-ball kind of offense.  If they did retain that though, I would personally advise the Suns to wait until the offseason and try an Amar'e for Elton Brand trade.  I think they'd fit better in those teams, and the Suns aren't trading talent to a conference rival.  John Hollinger on the otherhand, believes that Iverson and Rasheed Wallace might be the answers.

New Orleans Hornets 30-20 6th in the West

Another team that has been rumored to be shopping players due to financial reasons has been the Hornets.  Apparently, it's gotten so bad (due to the economy) it's rumored that New Orleans might not be able to keep the Hornets, which would be really sad, since it is the Cinderella franchise.  Despite Chris Paul turning things around, word on the internet has Tyson Chandler being shopped actively around the league.  It's hard to think of somewhere Chandler can go that will merit some kind of value in return, understandably the 3 years (at $11 million per) left on his contract are pretty undesirable, but from a basketball perspective, the Hornets desperately need Chandler's size.  West isn't exactly the most imposing of power forwards and behind them the frontcourt is already thin, boasting the likes of Hilton Armstrong, Melvin Ely, and Sean Marks.   

Brad Miller might have been a possibility, but I don't really think the Hornets need a high post presence, what with David West's midrange game already.  Additionally, I don't find that Peja Stojakovic, Rasual Butler, James Posey, or Morris Peterson are really that good at slashing to fully utilize Miller's high-post passing skills, and Chris Paul certainly doesn't need it.  There's no basketball reason for the Hornets to trade Tyson Chandler, so there's nothing I can really say about it.

Sacramento Kings 11-43 15th in the West

It's no secret that the league-worst (behind Wizards by 1/2 a game) are trying to go young.  The core is obviously going to be centered around Kevin Martin, and the Kings probably want to develop promsing draft-picks of Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes (whom Ziller of SacTown Royalty aptly dubbed "Shock" and Hawes).  This basically means that they want money and cap space.  The most obvious assets that Kings would like to move include but are not limited to John Salmons, Brad Miller, and Kenny Thomas (and maybe Mikki Moore).  Miller is kind of on his last legs but is potent from mid to long range and is a skilled high-post passer with high basketball IQ.  Salmons is a proficient scorer, a good defender, and someone who just asks for the ball too much.  That being said, it probably isn't hard to find suitors but might be a little difficult to figure out how to get something of value in return, it being pretty hard to figure out what exactly Sacramento wants.

To me it kind of just sounds like the Kings want to get rid of Salmons and Miller, they're out of the playoffs anyway, so I suppose it's not that bad of a stance to have.  My personal proposal would be Salmons and Miller for Oklahoma City's Earl Watson, Chris Wilcox, and Damien Wilkins.  Presti would probably ask for a pick which Sacramento might be unwilling to give up, but, Watson provides another PG to try for size since Udrih has been struggling, while Wilcox and Wilkins provide depth that teams could always use.  Salmons can start at the 2, providing wing play and defense that OKC needs, while Miller fills in at the center slot which OKC is so weak in.  Obviously more of a financial trade for Sacramento, since they only have 2 years of Watson and Wilkins with Wilcox as an expiring contract as opposed to 2 years of Miller and 3 years of Salmon.  I'm not really sure what the ultimate goal of the Kings front office would be, I'd imagine ultimately to cut costs.  If that's the case, personally (being the Spurs fan that I am) I'd have to propose this one...

Portland Trailblazers 32-20 3rd in the West

Due to Memphis and the whole Darius Miles thing, Portland no longer looks to be able to be a big player in the free agent market, which means that should the Blazers want to improve their roster, they're going to have to aggressively shop Raef LaFrentz and his free expiring contract.  If you're not sure what I mean by free, let me explain succinctly (I will try very hard to be succinct), you don't have to pay for it.  Since he's injured, insurance is actually paying for most of the contract which then promptly comes off the books by summer.  Rumors have been swirling of some sort of trade involving said contract and Travis Outlaw (and Sergio Rodruiguez) for Milwaukee's Richard Jefferson and Luke Ridnour.  Coup from The Rip City Project doesn't like it.  Honestly I can't say that I'm a fan either.  Luke Ridnour is basically a Steve Blake equivalent, and honestly, I don't think 2 Steve Blakes really is going to be the championship caliber point guard duo that Portland needs to win, Seattle tried it with Ridnour and Watson, not so good.  As Coup mentions, Portland might also want to look into developing rookie Jerryd Bayless if they don't end up trading him.  

If you look closely in the comments I have some correspondence with Coup regarding possibilities.  Wizards have said that they are discouraging interest for Butler, but IF they are going into firesale mode Coup says his most desired non-Danny Granger-related trade proposal would be something along the lines of Outlaw, LaFrentz, Rodruiguez, and Channing Frye for Caron Butler and Etan Thomas (and Darius Songaila?).  In short, what Portland is hoping for, is a not-too-old small forward that can hit threes, play defense, and/or be an offensive catalyst (create his own shot) outside of Roy and Aldridge, the emphasis on which part is more important I think shifts depending on how Greg Oden develops.  Another option would be a stellar point guard to run the show, basically, an upgrade from Steve Blake, which, of the PGs available (for trade), are pretty nonexistent.  While I don't think Memphis is willing to part with Mike Conley any longer, I discussed this with Coup, who says that it's still kind of a tossup in a Bayless and Outlaw swap for Conley and Rudy Gay.  Chad Ford seems to think that Gerald Wallace is the answer.  I've actually mentioned Gerald Wallace to Blazers bloggers (I think it was Coup as well) before, and the response as been somewhat unenthusiastic.  While Wallace is an immediate impact player on the defensive (and offensive) end if he gets into it, I believe that the Blazers are looking more for a shooter than a playmaker, hence why Martell Webster was such an essential piece to the starting lineup.  The most ideal player I think for the Blazers would be Tayshaun Prince, but Prince is not available, and were I Joe Dumars, I wouldn't trade Prince for just cap space either, nothing short of LaMarcus Aldridge or Greg Oden.  

In Ford's analysis of the trade field with the deadline coming up in 2 days, he basically says the Blazers are looking for a two-way small forward who can be a third scoring option next to Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.  The main guys on the radar are Caron Butler, Richard Jefferson, Gerald Wallace, and to a lesser extent Mike Miller. I agree that with Greg Oden developing more as a defensive big man to guard the paint, having less of a pure shooter is becoming more feasible.  Out of the four mentioned, Miller is probably the best shooter but the worst defender, Wallace would probably be the greatest asset on defense, but also would probably be the worst shooter.  Personally I'd go with Butler, but I get the feeling that the Wizards would sooner part with Antawn Jamison than Caron Butler.  Richard Jefferson is intriguing, but I don't know that he'd be a significant improvement over Travis Outlaw.  While I think Wallace would definitely help the Blazers, I don't know that he'd be a huge difference maker, with him in the lineup Brandon Roy would definitely have to take more threes, additionally, Wallace is known to be somewhat reckless and fragile at the same time, which is always a caveat to take into account.  

Teams Shopping

San Antonio Spurs 35-16 2nd in West

I think if Manu remains healthy and everyone continues to play the way they've been playing (namely Mason and Bonner) through the post-season, then I say the Spurs stand a good shot at the title.  That being said, that's no reason for the Spurs not to look to get better.  The major rumor that has been swirling around is a major package of Roger Mason, George Hill, Bruce Bowen, and Fabricio Oberto for Vince Carter.  HoopsWorld has an article on how Tim Duncan doesn't like that trade.  Quite frankly I can't say I'm a huge fan either.  While it might be interesting and a matchup monstrosity in the fourth quarter of a tight playoffs game to have to guard a lineup of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Vince Carter, Tim Duncan, and Matt Bonner, it's still difficult to pull the trigger on that given how thin the Spurs already are.  Additionally, they're mortgaging a large part of their future in George Hill and to a lesser extent Roger Mason who are respectively 22 and 28 as compared to Vince Carter who turned 32 last month.  Sources say that Nets would end up having to cut three players to make the deal work, but that shouldn't be too hard for the Nets, it's surmised that they'd likely end up cutting Oberto and Bowen.

Another rumor swirling around is that Rasheed Wallace wants to go to San Antonio.  It's hard to imagine Joe Dumars taking a trade like that unless 'Sheed has become too big of a menace in the locker room, which I have a hard time believing after all this time on the Pistons.  Since Ginobili, Duncan, and Parker are obviously untouchable, Spurs would probably have to offer something similar to what they'd give for Vince Carter.  While I love the idea of getting Wallace, and the prospect of a Duncan/Wallace frontcourt gives me shivers, I can't really imagine Detroit being willing to just cutting a little bit of salary instead of just letting 'Sheed walk next season.  'Sheed will turn 35 before next season starts, so if he does think he has one more year in him, he might just go and sign with the Spurs for cheap next season.  Also, please note my plug for John Salmons and Brad Miller above.  

Cleveland Cavaliers 40-11 2nd in the East

One big thing that Cavs need is to get all healthy first.  I think Mo Williams is a solid second piece, but I personally believe he's good as 3rd option, not a second.  That being said, Cavs do have an attractive piece to offer in the form of Wally Sczerbiak's expiring contract.  While LeBron has been amazing, I don't believe that an offense that is carried by LeBron, Mo Williams, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas will be able to take it all the way.  Obviously there needs to be an improvement in there, which means, that they need someone to slide into the starting lineup and score.  The two biggest offensive liabilities in the starting lineup are Delonte West and Ben Wallace.  I personally think that Delonte West has definitely stepped it up significantly, and while West isn't a prolific scorer, he can still hit shots, unlike Ben Wallace, who's more than somewhat over the hill.  The answer then appears to be at the power forward slot.  

If you look at the first Chad Ford link I posted above (the one in regarding the Gerald Wallace trade), you'll notice that at the bottom of the article, Ford writes that Antawn Jamison might be a solution for Cleveland.  While Jamison isn't exactly the most imposing presence in the paint, he definitely good at scoring (something Ben Wallace doesn't do) and grabbing rebounds (something Ben Wallace does do).  It makes sense and would definitely make hte Cavs immediately a contender.  I also wouldn't mind seeing more of a low post presence being put next to Zydrunas Ilgauskas, but I think the most immediate solution that's more than halfway feasible definitely would be Antawn Jamison, if that does happen though, you can expect any hopes of anyone getting Caron Butler to be dashed.

Houston Rockets 32-21 5th in the West

This team was supposed to go all the way according to a lot of people.  However, Tracy McGrady's continual injuries soon wore thin and I think most people want him out.  The latest rumor, interestingly enough, shows that there's interest in McGrady's cousin, Vince Carter of the Nets.  I think Houston can offer a much more attractive package than San Antonio can for Carter, so the big question is what they do offer.  Some say some package featuring Ron Artest, others say that McGrady should be the centerpiece.

I personally think that the McGrady trade makes a little more sense, in terms of their game, Carter and McGrady bring a lot of the same things to the table.  Ability to attack the basket, shoot the 3, and make smart passes, all while somehow managing to be indifferent when on the court.  Ironically it hasn't really been Ron Artest causing the ruckus in Houston, so I don't know that he's a bad fit per se, however, it's obvious that given McGrady's history of chronic injury, he's not going to be reliably instrumental in getting them out of the first round of the playoffs.  As a lot of people have been saying as well, they play a lot better with him not on the floor.

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