I'm gonna take a quick look at each team and what they have and how likely they are to win that spot to get trounced by the Lakers in the first round, or perhaps be that Cinderella 8th spot like the 2007 Golden State Warriors.
Dallas Mavericks 37-25 8th in Western Conference 4th in Southwest Division
| Starters | MPG | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| PG - Jason Kidd | 35:30 | 43.3% | 40.5% | 9.2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| SG - Antoine Wright | 21:41 | 41.6% | 81.3% | 7.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 |
| SF - Josh Howard | 32:42 | 45.8% | 75.3% | 18.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| PF - Dirk Nowitzki | 37:42 | 47.3% | 90.4% | 25.2 | 8.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| C - Erick Dampier | 22:41 | 66.3% | 63.4% | 5.4 | 6.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Reserves | MPG | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| G - Jason Terry | 33:30 | 46.4% | 88.0% | 19.7 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 1.8 |
| G - Jose Juan Barea | 19:11 | 42.6% | 69.0% | 7.3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
| F - Brandon Bass | 19:36 | 48.6% | 86.8% | 8.5 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| F - James Singleton | 13:11 | 54.6% | 87.5% | 4.6 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| F - Gerald Green | 10:30 | 43.6% | 82.6% | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
| C - Ryan Hollins | 7:35 | 52.6% | 61.2% | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| F - Devean George | 16:41 | 37.8% | 77.8% | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
From what we can see initially, outside of Dirk Nowtizki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and maybe Jason Kidd, we're not really getting any significant production, anywhere really. If you watch Ernie Johnson, Kenny Smith, and Charles Barkley on Inside the NBA on TNT you'll hear EJ mention an interesting quote from Jason Terry saying, "Erick Dampier makes the Mavericks go." Which is understandable, because if Erick Dampier "turns it on" then the Mavs are good. I believe what the Mavs are lacking though is an interior presence, Dirk Nowtizki, for being 7 feet tall, plays like he's 6-3. Sure he gets rebounds, but in essence the Mavs are what the Magic would be without Dwight Howard. Maybe it's not fair to Erick Dampier to ask him to be a Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan, but they need some kind of a legitimate post/defensive presence in the middle. I know that the talk has been about these opposing PGs lighting up the Mavericks:
| PGs Against Mavs | GP | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| Tony Parker | 4 | 51.6% | 82.1% | 31.3 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| Chris Paul | 2 | 52.4% | 83.3% | 30.0 | 7.0 | 13.0 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| Devin Harris | 2 | 44.2% | 88.9% | 29.5 | 3.5 | 10.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| Deron Williams | 3 | 47.2% | 92.0% | 27.0 | 3.7 | 11.3 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 |
| Russell Westbrook | 3 | 37.5% | 94.7% | 23.0 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 4.3 |
| Derrick Rose | 2 | 42.9% | 50.0% | 19.0 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Baron Davis | 3 | 40.0% | 77.8% | 18.0 | 3.3 | 8.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Rajon Rondo | 2 | 62.5% | 50.0% | 16.0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
This is just a short list of players that have overperformed whenever they're playing the Mavs, that is, they average higher averages against the Mavs than they do across the regular season (aka against other teams). People will look at this and first point fingers at Jason Kidd, who, being 35 and a step slower than he used to be, can't be as effective defensively. Most people will call him a defensive liability, which, may or may not be true. In the case of Dallas though, I don't know that you can lay the whole blame on the shoulders of Kidd. If you look at the list of PGs that do so well against Dallas, all of them thrive by getting into the lane, and honestly, none of them are really afraid of Erick Dampier. Jason Kidd ends up looking bad, because he has no one to funnel his man to, he can't trust Erick Dampier with the weak side help. Playing Dirk Nowtizki on the floor is basically playing a rebounding 3 on the floor.
Don't get me wrong, Dirk averaging 25 points and 8 rebounds per contest is great, those are actually quite phenomenal stats, but they're closer to what you want out of say Carmelo Anthony rather than Carlos Boozer, and honestly, you need Dirk to play more like Carlos Boozer. I've been saying this since they were ousted from the first round by Golden State in the 2007 playoffs, they're a shooting team with no interior presence. They got the shooters, they don't have the inside. If we compare Dampier to the average center of the Eastern Conference 8th spots:
| Rk | Player | Season | Age | G | GS | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erick Dampier | 2008-09 | 33 | 62 | 62 | 1413 | 3.5 | 5.2 | .660 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1.6 | 2.5 | .639 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 8.5 |
| 2 | Roy Hibbert | 2008-09 | 22 | 53 | 26 | 679 | 7.3 | 14.6 | .498 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3.1 | 4.8 | .644 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 8.2 | 17.6 |
| 3 | Brook Lopez | 2008-09 | 20 | 61 | 54 | 1840 | 6.4 | 12.3 | .521 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .000 | 2.2 | 2.7 | .819 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 15.0 |
| 4 | Joakim Noah | 2008-09 | 23 | 60 | 35 | 1352 | 3.6 | 6.8 | .533 | 0.0 | 0.0 | .000 | 2.2 | 3.5 | .634 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 11.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 9.5 |
You'll notice that Dampier, a 13 year vet, across the board, is being out performed, and he's the primary option. Behind him, you have the even worse Ryan Hollins. Honestly, the future in the playoffs doesn't really look very bright for Dallas, and after this year, Jason Kidd leaves, and I honestly don't know that Dallas would re-sign him as it didn't work out. If you notice, while Kidd has tallied off a little, he's not performing significantly worse than we'd expected, it's all the role players that are hurting Dallas. When Devean George gets serious burn off the bench and only averages 3.5 points and 1.9 rebounds per game, you know your role players aren't producing. Sure, they should be better, but honestly, I'm not too surprised by the fact that they aren't.
Phoenix Suns 34-27 9th in Western Conference 2nd in Pacific Division
The Phoenix Suns are only 2nd in the Pacific because all the other teams in the Pacific suck that much (Sacramento Kings, LA Clippers, and Golden State Warriors). Seriously.
| Starters | MPG | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| PG - Steve Nash | 33:36 | 48.4% | 94.2% | 14.5 | 3.2 | 9.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 3.7 |
| SG - Matt Barnes | 26:00 | 41.9% | 74.1% | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| SF - Jason Richardson | 34:47 | 47.3% | 76.2% | 17.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| PF - Grant Hill | 28:48 | 51.0% | 79.3% | 10.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| C - Shaquille O'Neal | 30:23 | 60.8% | 62.6% | 18.2 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Reserves | MPG | FG% | FT% | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TO |
| G - Leandro Barbosa | 24:53 | 47.8% | 87.3% | 13.9 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 |
| F - Jared Dudley | 15:05 | 46.6% | 63.9% | 4.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| F - Louis Amundson | 12:48 | 57.0% | 47.1% | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| G - Goran Dragic | 12:35 | 35.6% | 84.1% | 3.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| C - Robin Lopez | 9:54 | 50.0% | 59.1% | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| F - Stromile Swift | 10:41 | 60.0% | 45.5% | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
| F - Alando Tucker | 10:30 | 42.2% | 83.3% | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
Seriously, the only reason Mavericks are going to get into the playoffs are because this Phoenix team is worse. Losing Amar'e Stoudemire for the rest of the season hurts, losing him for the post season as well is devastating. As hard as it would have been for them to make it to the post season, without Amar'e, it kind of makes the post season not worth going to. They had a slim chance against the Lakers should they have slipped in the 8th seed, but without Amar'e they have no chance whatsoever. Despite Alvin Gentry trying to move the Suns back into their old run-and-gun form, they're just not clicking, too many new things to integrate. Shaq may be having the last hurrah of his career, but it'll be pretty disappointing should the Suns drop out of the playoffs.
Honestly, this team just hasn't found an identity, it's a random conglomeration of parts that looks good on paper but really isn't very cohesive. You have a dominant half-court oriented center who demands touches (Shaq), you have an explosive off guard that shoots threes and demands touches in isolation (Jason Richardson), you have an aging point guard and reserve off guard who thrive running the open floor (Steve Nash and Leandro Barbosa), you have a couple of role players (Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, and Jared Dudley), and you have a bunch of clueless rookies (Robin Lopez and Goran Dragic). Signing Stromile Swift in the free agency was too little too late. Honestly they're back two games and I don't think they can catch up. Neither Phoenix nor Dallas are very good teams right now, and it's hard to believe that they've fallen this far, but if you just look at the roster and what is brought night in and night out, there just isn't enough to compete with the other 8 teams ahead of them. Nash (34), Hill (36), and O'Neal (37) are at the end of their careers, and there are no youth to take the reins (Amar'e has shown he's a better support player), so inevitably there is this monstrous dropoff. Without Amar'e, they're a lot worse than their record, like, Charlotte Bobcats worse.
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