What will it take?: LA Lakers

I was considering doing a piece on how Shaq needs to learn how to shut his mouth, but there's already a lot of literature out there on that (ok maybe not "literature, but there's a bit of writing on it). Then, I thought about maybe talking about how Celtics defense maybe isn't so much stifling as it is dirty. So I decided, to move forward with a post that I've been meaning to get to for a while, that is, a closer look at all the different contenders in the league, which I boiled down to 2 per conference with a "dark horse" type team thrown in for kicks. I've tried to get some external input on this as well, so here goes:

The Lakers are currently the best team in the league, at least record-wise. A lot of people are gearing for a rematch of last year's finals showdown (Boston and LA). Kenny Smith continually talks about how the Lakers are the only team to improve their roster from last season (it's on one of the Inside the NBA episodes, don't remember which one) significantly. I can agree with his analysis that having Gasol for a whole year and having a healthy Ariza, even without Bynum again, the Lakers are improved, yes. While the other teams in the West haven't made a significant move, but it's hard to say that other teams haven't "improved" either. I'm not going to get into that though.

Last season, the Lakers had a solid run through the Western Conference, starting with a sweep of Denver in the first round, a fairly even 6 game matchup against Utah, and then a convincing 5 game rout of San Antonio (despite some controversy). I'm sure they're looking for another run again this season, but this time, hopefully overcome the Eastern Conference team that they face. After losing to Boston in 5 games in last year's Finals, the Lakers were accused of being soft, unable to bang with the more physical Boston frontline of Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins. Maybe that was the case, and they hoped that the return of Bynum would add some physicality to their game, which it did, until he got hurt, again.

One thing that the Lakers have definitely established thusfar this season is that they play very good team basketball, be it on the offensive end or defensive end. Phil Jackson's triangle offense emphasizes a lot of ball movement and when it's clicking, it's nigh impossible to stop. The offense has always been there, the defense however, is what the Lakers need. Kurt from Forum Blue and Gold says:

"When the Lakers have wanted to, they have been a very good defensive team this season, playing a much more aggressive style in the sense that there is a lot of help from bigs to keep guys from driving into the lane and getting easy buckets (think Paul Pierce in the Finals last year). The Lakers are going to make teams beat them from the outside, not in the paint. The Lakers played that system well early in the season, but since their focus and commitment on the defensive end has been spotty. It can't be in the playoffs, especially the later rounds. I think you'll see the last few weeks of the season that playing more focused defense will be something the coaching staff and players will talk a lot about."

It kind of goes without saying that one of the first priorities for the Lakers is to get Bynum back for the post-season, to get him back healthy, because the main culprits of the Lakers' interior softness would be their current frontcourt tandem of Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Should Bynum get back healthy, it provides a solid interior presence that the Lakers desperately needed against more physical bigs. One thing Kenny Smith notes in his preview of this Thursday's Lakers/Spurs matchup is that the Lakers have a really hard time guarding Tim Duncan. If you notice from the highlights, a lot of times it's just Duncan scoring over Lamar Odom, who isn't a great post defender. Bynum gives that big body that can press against Duncan and force him out of the paint, that doesn't completely nullify Duncan, but it does make his shots more difficult. Additionally, while Derek Fisher is a smart defender, he's also an aging player, he's not quite as fast as he once was, and so guards like Tony Parker usually have their way with him, the damage done by those kind of slashing guards is mitigated significantly with an interior help presence of someone like Andrew Bynum. Again, Kurt addresses this issue:

"They need Andrew Bynum back, not for any scoring but for the way he protects the paint on defense and grabs rebounds. Bynum also provides depth — right now the Lakers second unit is struggling because it cannot generate offense outside the fast break. So Odom or Gasol have to stay in with them, racking up a lot of minutes, to provide a good scoring option in the half court. Bynum's return will mean more regular minutes for everyone (Bynum may come off the bench, at least at first). In the playoffs, the depth matters less because the key players can and will take on more minutes, but the Lakers need that depth because it gives Phil Jackson more matchup options in the playoffs. It allows him to go big or small, to do a number of things that will frustrate opponents."

Of course, while it's certain that the Lakers will likely clinch the top spot in the Western Conference, a good regular season record isn't really indicative of post season success. However, this Lakers team does look a lot more balanced than the 2007 Dallas Mavericks did. Granted there's a little luck involved, what with the matchups, but the first round looks like it'll be against a floundering Dallas Mavericks, which I think the Lakers should take easily. However, they really can't let that get to them. For the Lakers, the talent is all there, I'm sure having been so close to winning the Larry O'Brien trophy, the desire should be too, I think the main thing is for them to focus on each game in front of them as each series progresses. If the 2007 Golden State Warriors taught us anything, it's that you can't really take anyone for granted in a 7-game playoff series. Certainly it would help if there was an upset here or there, however, and none of the teams ranked 2-7 in the West will be an easy out, since they all deserve to be there.

I think the most serious threats though that the Lakers will face would be Utah Jazz and the San Antonio Spurs. I feel like Denver, Houston, and New Orleans will falter when it switches over from one-and-done regular season games to the grueling 7-game matchups against such high caliber teams. Portland honestly, just hasn't really been there, so while that might be held against them, they are something of an x-factor. Nonetheless, I think the Blazers still have some growing so experience wins out in the end. In terms of favorable matchups, despite having homecourt advantage, the Lakers would really want the Jazz to beat out the Rockets for the 3rd place spot, so that San Antonio and Utah would play each other before facing the Lakers, instead of the Lakers running the possibility of having to play both of them (again) in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I personally don't think there's a team that's invulnerable to defeat, and I think the other contenders in the West have as equal a chance as the Eastern contenders to keep the Lakers from winning that championship. That being said, I think it's equally likely that the Lakers could win it all this season. There are still a number of games left in the season, and too many unknowns both in LA and on the other squads for anyone to say for sure.

Finally, I think for the Lakers taking home a championship banner, is beyond Kobe doing his Kobe thing, the rest of the players need to step it up. The entire Lakers team needs to be playing at that higher level and not have to fall back on Kobe shooting them out of holes. That means that the "gel" guys, I think namely Lamar Odom, have to be able to pick it up when their number is called. Kobe's going to get a ton of defensive attention, and to a lesser extent Gasol, which means that the reserve roles have to be willing to take big shots. Fisher doesn't have that problem, but my concern would be more for Lamar Odom, Luke Walton, and the like. While the reserves usually don't get as much burn with starters willing to play more minutes, progressive fatigue can still catch up, especially if series start dragging on to 6-7 games, so the role players really have to go out and get their own on the floor.

That was pretty dense so let me bullet point what I think the Lakers need for success, adding on a few peripheral notes while I'm at it:

• A healthy Bynum to return for the post season
• Focus on the defensive end, especially in the paint
  
• Kobe being Kobe
• Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom not being fatigued by too many minutes with Bynum out
• Odom and Luke Walton have to step it up
• Keep running the triangle
  

That's it for now, if you have a comment feel free to leave it, this is how I see it. I'll be posting my predictions for the other contenders hopefully soon.