Friday, April 3, 2009

What about those old guys?

So there are a number of older players that in the final year of their contracts, and a lot of people are wondering what will happen to them. Well, at least I am. One path might be retirement, another path of course, might be to sign with a different team, then again, maybe they'll sign with the same team. Who knows? Now, by old, in the NBA at least, generally we mean over 30, though some are older than others. Given the state of the economy and the shrinking salary cap (and therefore shrinking MLE) free agents will definitely have a harder time finding jobs on teams for whatever salary they are demanding. Of course, with these players it might be even more of an issue as they're all in the downside of their careers, playing on their proverbial "last legs". Who'll go where? First, let's look at who's available:

Jason Kidd - PG - Dallas Mavericks - 36 years old
Mike Bibby - PG - Atlanta Hawks - 30 years old
Allen Iverson - SG - Detroit Pistons - 33 years old
Rasheed Wallace - PF/C - Detroit Pistons - 34 years old
Andre Miller - PG - Philadelphia 76ers - 33 years old
Shawn Marion - SF/PF - Toronto Raptors - 30 years old

All the other unrestricted frees are still pretty young, so let's look at these guys. All of them are in their heyday contracts, Iverson and Kidd still making $21 million for this season, Marion making $17 million, Bibby making $15 million, Rasheed making $13 million, and Miller pretty much $10 million. The only player capable of making anything remotely near what he's currently making I think is Miller, just because he has had the most solid year of contribution averaging 16.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. So all these players are definitely getting a huge paycut, and I think they should definitely realize that, especially as they're all getting towards the end of their careers (especially Kidd). So here are my scenarios for them:

Jason Kidd

I think Kidd will be the most interesting as he'll be able to have still a pretty big impact wherever he goes, since well, he's Jason Kidd, a future Hall of Famer PG living legend. That being said, Kidd is most definitely on his last legs, it's showing. There's always kind of been a lot of press around Kidd, especially with his recent comments about playing with LeBron. However, I don't think that's really realistic, as Kidd isn't really the player that the Cavs are looking for, specifically because they have LeBron. I think Kenny Smith says somewhere (maybe on Yahoo) that Kidd will probably stay in Dallas, simply because nobody else really wants to pay him, and Dallas would need to figure out his replacement if he did leave. Additionally, it would be the final concession that Jason Kidd for Devin Harris was in fact, a stupid trade. However, Dallas also needs to get a new look since what they have hasn't worked, but in fact has gotten progressively worse since their failed 2006 NBA Finals showing. Kidd isn't in the future, and Mavs might be on the road to rebuilding, then again, maybe not.

So Dallas is an option, one thing I would like to see is Kidd ending up somewhere where he'd be used more as a mentor for younger point guards than really for his on court contributions. I make mention of Portland in a previous post. If the Blazers could land Kidd for cheaper, that would enable them to trade Blake, Sergio, and Outlaw to bolster other parts of their roster, namely the SF spot. I really relish the idea of Kidd taking a raw talent like Jerryd Bayless under his wing, and since Bayless is such a natural scorer, having someone like Kidd mentor him in other aspects of being a PG is just that much more appealing. This works best with Kidd and not the other older PGs (Miller and Bibby) simply because it's Jason Kidd, he's a legend, and while he's lost a step, he's still that legend, while the other guys, are just solid PGs to show him the ropes, and Steve Blake does a serviceable job of that. If you'll notice in the previous post, Coup also addresses the whole defense issue and makes a point to show that if the help is there, then Kidd isn't that big of a liability.

By that same idea, Miami might be another destination, and while Chalmers has definitely stepped out on his own, and as much as I would enjoy a Dwayne Wade/Jason Kidd backcourt, I think the Heat are more worried about bolstering their interior and depth a little more. However, the possibility remains, since they do have Jermaine O'Neal. A lot of whether or not anything gets done on the PG front though is if the front office is confident in Jermaine's ability to stay healthy and if they're ok with how Mario Chalmers is doing now.

Mike Bibby

I honestly can't see Bibby anywhere other than in Atlanta, then again, I'm never sure what the Atlanta front office is going to pull in the off season, so I can't say that with a whole lot of gusto. If you watch NBATVs Strength of the Team segment from this week, you'll find Kenny Smith interviewing Hawks' coach Mike Woodson, who says that Bibby is the best thing to happen to his coaching career. That's some pretty high praise there, so I think there will definitely be a push for Bibby to come back. Will he take a paycut so the Hawks can resign Marvin Williams? That remains to be seen.

Allen Iverson

Well, Allen Iverson is already flirting with retirement. It's pretty understandable given that Iverson has never come off the bench before. However, no one's really listening, why? Because Dumars made it clear that bringing Iverson to the Pistons was really more of a money move for the future than anything else. Dumars didn't see Iverson as the player who carried the 2000-2001 Philadelphia 76ers to the NBA Finals, but as an attractive $21 million expiring contract. That being said, Iverson definite still has game, just how much? Not too sure, but it's still there. He might not be as great as he once was, but he can still make a difference when need be. Needless to say, that means that Iverson will not be returning for another tenure with the Pistons.

Where does he fit? Well, I think it was Tas Melas from the Basketball Jones that said this, but please correct me if I'm wrong, the Charlotte Bobcats look like a pretty Iversonian team. They even have his 2000-2001 head coach, Larry Brown. The Bobcats actually just look like an upgraded version of the 01 76ers, really, they do. I mean, granted Iverson has lost a couple of steps since then, but hey, wouldn't you say that a squad of Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Emeka Okafor, DJ Augustin, DeSagana Diop, Vladamir Radmanovic, Nazr Mohammed, and Juwan Howard at least as good as if not better than Eric Snow, George Lynch, Tyrone Hill, Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie, Kevin Ollie, Jumaine Jones, Todd MacCulloch, and Matt Geiger? Ok sure, the Bobcats can definitely get better, but they have a solid bunch of role players right now and are just looking for someone to take over the game. Raymond Felton is probably out of the picture, but the Hawks definitely could use a game changer like Allen Iverson, creating on the offense. I'm not gonna go into the details of parallels between Raja Bell and Aaron McKie and Emeka Okafor and Dikembe Mutombo, but I think it's not a bad place for Iverson to end his career. They're pushing for the playoffs already without him, and I think he can take them a little further.

Rasheed Wallace

As mentioned in the link above in my post on Jason Kidd, I think that Rasheed Wallace can be big on the Spurs, if he can fit into the system. I'd love to see him playing next to Duncan, and if he brings the defensive effort, and is willing to play for cheap, then it's a hit. Dumars has also made it clear that Wallace isn't in the long-term Pistons picture, so it's a final hurrah or retirement. Of course, Wallace has mentioned before that he might want to retire, but I think if he's willing to play for a contender, there are a lot of teams that could really use his length, defense, and versatility. Spurs seem like the best place where they can utilize that and also contain his quirkiness. He'd be like the ultimate combination of Robert Horry and Dennis Rodman. While it'd be interesting to see him play next to maybe someone like Dwight Howard, I think the Magic are going to be focused on trying to retain Hedo Turkoglu, and then would try to sign a cheaper, more workmanlike PF to play next to Howard.

Andre Miller

Miller is a pretty intersting case because he's been playing so well for Philadelphia. However, there are rumors that his tenure might be up, especially as he's not really getting younger. He's a solid PG to say the least, and I probably see him remaining at Philadelphia for a little while, as he's been the steady floor captain that has really helped keep the team running. However, should Kidd leave, I can see the Mavericks turning an eye at him. Another option might be Sacramento, who are looking for someone to take up the reigns where Beno Udrih could not. Portland was interested in Miller purportedly before the trade deadline, but I honestly think that they wouldn't be getting significantly better acquiring Miller.

Shawn Marion

Last but not least is the enigmatic Shawn Marion. The Matrix has definitely looked utterly lost ever since he left Steve Nash and the run-and-gun game of Mike D'Antoni. Not really sure how things are going to work out for him, really, he's the hardest guy to place. He's not really very good offensively, at least in terms of creating his own shot, but he's a solid rebounder for his size and defends fairly well. I don't see him commanding another $17 million, especially in the current economic situation, but it's possible that some team might still overpay him. A team that naturally comes to mind as a fit would be the Golden State Warriors, who desperately need defense and rebounding. Of course, the arrival of Marion may mean a hindrance of the development of Anthony Randolph, though, if the Warriors are set on getting rid of Crawford and playing Maggette as a super 6th man, then having Randolph play the 3 and Marion the 4 may not be a bad idea. Not sure where Brandan Wright would fit into all of this, but hey, I think that right now, Warriors are the one team that Marion could go to and make a positive impact.

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