What will it take?: San Antonio Spurs

I'm not going to hide it, I'm a Spurs fan. For this reason alone, I'm not allowed to post on Bright Side of the Sun, though they do have some good stuff, which I would love to comment, but, I'm a Spurs fan. Honestly, the only two spots that I really enjoy reading and posting on would have to be Pounding the Rock or Third Quarter Collapse. Anyways, that's not what I'm writing about here. However, as a final side note, if I were to actually get League Pass and start watching games on a regular basis, I would become a Spurs blogger, maybe I should... I'm seriously thinking about it. Anyways...

Onwards... I think Spurs are one of the other teams with a better chance of upsetting the Lakers in a 7-game series. Of course, there's a lot that has to go right in order for that to happen. What I want to do here, is discuss the things that "have to go right" in order for said upset (which I hope will happen) to happen. Spurs currently stand 3rd in the Western Conference, 1/2 a game behind Denver, 1/2 a game ahead of Houston, two teams, who, honestly, I don't think really have much of a chance. Should the season end with no change to the standings, the Spurs would be playing Portland for the first round and the winner of Denver/Utah (I pick Utah) in the second. Let me just say, those are two tough matchups. My personal hope is that Utah jumps to 5 to play Houston so then Lakers would have to go through them first before matching up with the Spurs (assuming both advance to the Western Conference Finals). Hope. Yeah.

So from a purely basketball standpoint, what do Spurs need? Well, firstly, the obvious answer is they need to be healthy. They need to be back 100%, full speed. The most noteable players they need to be certain are healthy are Manu Ginobili and Drew Gooden. Of course, they have to keep Tony Parker and Tim Duncan healthy for the remainder of the season too. One of the primary reasons I say this is because the Rockets and Nuggets are such good regular season teams, that I don't see them falling to a spot where the Spurs will play them (though maybe the Spurs might fall to a spot where they'll play them given their last two games). While I don't anticipate the Rockets or Nuggets making a whole lot of noise in the postseason (read: 1st round exit) I think they can stay in the top 4 spots and retain homecourt advantage. Additionally, I don't see Dallas gaining any ground to play anyone besides the Lakers, but that all could change, still, I think it's pretty unlikely. That means that the Spurs have to hit the playoffs running, because their first matchup is likely to be pretty challenging from the getgo, Portland, New Orleans, and Utah are the choices, and I'd really rather not have to face any of them in a playoff series. Manu is slowly working his way back, but he's not quite 100% yet, hopefully he makes a full recovery by playoffs.

If everyone is healthy, then we have to have Tony Parker continue to have a career season into the offseason. Next, Tim Duncan has to be, well, Tim Duncan. The big questionmarks then kind of fall to the role players. I know this all sounds kind of obvious, in the effect of saying "all the Spurs players just need to play well" but there does have to be some level of consistent production from Matt Bonner, Bruce Bowen, Drew Gooden, Kurt Thomas, and Roger Mason Jr in order for the Spurs to have a chance. While the core of Duncan/Parker/Ginobili is a formidable offense (if healthy), you can't really bank on them wresting control of the game and pulling the team out of the fire as regularly or reliably as say Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, or even Paul Pierce. Parker has done it a couple of times, and it might save the Spurs in a couple of close ones, but it's not something to bank on. I think Bonner, Mason, and Bowen (and Udoka I guess) all know their role in the system, so I think the biggest x-factor here is going to be Drew Gooden. If Drew Gooden can play smart and work efficiently (i.e. not jack up flat-footed wing jumpers) then the Spurs are in good shape. What they need Gooden to do, is to grab rebounds (especially offensive ones) and get his points off those putbacks, and also to be able to keep his head on defense, which he's not known for doing, but still, a little effort wouldn't hurt.

Finally, I think Popovich needs to figure out his rotations. How to most effectively use his players.

MAKE MANU THE SUPER SIXTH MAN AGAIN
Firstly, I'm in agreement with most people that Manu should come off the bench. What this does is give the bench a lot of firepower and instant offense. I think that the most effective starting 5 for the Spurs thusfar this season has been Parker, Mason, Finley, Bonner, Duncan. It works, assuming (a fairly large if I guess) Mason, Finley, and Bonner can hit their open shots. Graydon a solid Spurs blogger makes a note of this in regards to the previous Spurs loss to OKC, well, not specifically in regards to the lineup but in regards to how Pop needs to work his rotations, there are other posts on it at Graydon (and co)'s blog. I know the subs aren't going to get tons of time come playoffs, but hey, the starters also need their rest, but I'd much rather see Hill, Ginobili, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas off than Vaughn, Mason, Bowen/Udoka, Gooden, Thomas.

PLAY LESS MICHAEL FINLEY
One thing about this season I think that Pop has gone with is more firepower at the expense of some defense, which, I believe, given this roster is understandable. However, I don't know if that really dictates playing Michael Finley 30+ minutes per game. Right now, Finley's role is to hit open threes, which I believe given the minutes, either Udoka or Bowen can do effectively. So the second thing with the rotation is to limit Finley's minutes. I think those extra stops that Bowen/Udoka come up with will ultimately be more important, especially late game than the extra shots that Finley gets, especially when Finley isn't shooting well (in the last two losses Finley, while averaging 13 points has been shooting 10-28, that's 35.7%, ugh). In previous years, there was a lot of help from the middle from Duncan and one of Fransisco Elson, Fabricio Oberto, or Kurt Thomas, however, now with Bonner inserted as a key role in the lineup, I don't know that they can really afford to have another defensive liability on the floor.

PLAY MORE GEORGE HILL
Ok, so Hill might not be as great of a shooter as say Finley or Mason, but the idea is like that of playing less Finley and more Bowen/Udoka, the stops will be more important than the shots. One item of note that I found from the box score of the OKC game was really the rotation. I mean really, why is Jacque Vaughn playing 13+ minutes while George Hill gets a DNP? I know he's a rookie and inexperienced and all that, but isn't the last few games of the season a great time to get him that experience? While Vaughn knows how to make the offense go, he's really not much good on either end of the floor. Especially if Ginobili is the 6th man, I think that Hill wouldn't need to facilitate as much, since Ginobili will be there with him. This also moves Mason, who's not a great facilitator back to being the SG instead of the backup PG. I understand that Pop might want Mason on the floor, without getting considerably smaller (playing Mason at 2). While end-game situations might get iffy if Mason stays an SG since you might have to play Manu as a SF, I don't think that'll be as bad as more floor time for Michael Finley or something. I think he'll be crucial defensively especially as playoffs include the prospects of matching up against Chris Paul and/or Deron Williams.

I was discussing this with a friend (a Lakers fan) and while I think that a healthy Spurs outfit could sneak a 7 game series from the Lakers, there's one thing I failed to consider: David Stern hates the Spurs. That, I suppose is another uphill battle that the Spurs have to face, but at this point, it's all conspiracy theories. So these are what I think it will take for the Spurs to win. I believe that should everyone figure out the system and Pop sticks with a rotation that works, then Spurs have as good of a shot as anyone. Plus, it's an odd year.

Again Pop, here's my recommended rotation:

PG - Tony Parker, George Hill
SG - Roger Mason Jr, Manu Ginobili
SF - Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka
PF - Matt Bonner, Drew Gooden
C - Tim Duncan, Kurt Thomas

Don't play anyone else, though, I suppose you could stick Fab in there somewhere if he gets healthy again.